7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

Let me explain. If the 2PM candle CLOSE price is less than 25 pips i.e. 24/23/22/21 pips etc... from the 200SMA NO TRADE that day.

The 200 SMA only comes to visit every once in a while, so mostly its OK to trade...but its occurred TWICE in the last TWO days...but it'll be gone by next week ))

Hi Ashane,

Are you using those sma's on the 1 hr chart ? If not which time frame

I'd consider the 200 SMA or EMA an overall guide to the price equilibrium, the PA will always return to it and then either move downwards or upwards, however I wouldn't consider it too important in a method like this.

Using 15mins chart for 100/200 SMAs
Guided me away from very hairy market conditions! ashane

Hi DubaiTrader.
can you post again the box and indicator again ?

Also the rule ( placing pending order when , No trade if) , SL , TP, Break even point ,Time span ( 07-0900 EST = 5 candle of 30 M , corect ? ) and Explaination of using your indicator.

Because I see so many new trader on this system, loss cause they do not know real rule and to read from first page is exhausting .
And you still profit and survive using this system

I like to trade in GBP/USD , can you give sugesstion after the NY BOX done (9.30 ) every day ( Trade or not trade based on your opinon ).
Sometimes I cannot reseaarch cause my office work.

Thanks for your help.

Thanks

Hello everyone...

Please find attached version 1.3.

New: you can now use the opposite side of the box for your stop loss. just set UseBoxForSL = True. you can also change this to use only a percentage of the box size: if you want the SL to be 50% of the box set Order1BoxSLPercent = 50... you can also set this higher then 100%... if you wanna double it set it to 200%. Order2BoxSLPercent is the same but for the optional second order.

also some of you were unsure why the EA wasn't trading at some points... I add this: UseFilterComments. Set this to true and the EA will print exactly which filter is disallowing the trade... check this out before asking me why its trading so that you can tell me what it says.

As always let me know how it works...

Cheers

Nice post and also true....

Can you post your conditions why are these setup is valid....
What kind of TP, SL, BE etc. so you use...

Good Luck to all....

I currently have short cable trade @ 1.6616 via Indy's settings.

Anyone else?

Wow...Oanda's spread just spiked up to 15 pips!

No important news, either...

I hate it when they do this!

Anyone have a broker they recommend?

Hi Bobcat

I'm short GU at 1.6613.

Haven't had many good trades over the last week. How about you?

Hi Bobcat,

I am sorry that this trade does not seem to be working out. There are a couple of points that I would like clarify in relation to my post # 2109 as follows;

a) If the 11.00am to 13.00pm has not triggered by 14.30pm you only seek to enter based upon the 12.00pm to 14.30pm rules. On this basis you would not have entered this trade as with the 12.00pm to 14.30pm rules there is a buffer of 13 pips and the price did not go below 1.6600 which was 13 pips below the low of 1.6613 at 12.02pm on my chart

b) This is not a rule as such but I am always extra cautious when the price is close to a very round figure. On this basis I would have been very wary about taking a trade so close to 1.6600

I do hope that you caught the 2 trades on 16th and 18th as follows:

16th

11.00am to 13.00pm made target of 40 pips (reached a maximum of 138 pips)

12.00pm to 14.30pm made target of 60 pips (reached a maximum of 118 pips)

18th

11.00am to 13.00pm made target of 40 pips (reached a maximum of 63 pips)

12.00pm to 14.30pm stopped out at breakeven if you did not sell out earlier (reached a maximum of 50 pips)

(all times are GMT)

Hi Indy,

Although I have been trading breakout strategies for the past 4 years , I just started trading today with your rules. So...unfortunately I missed the nice results you experienced earlier this week. Our trading strategies are very similar, but as you are well know, a small change in box time, SL, TP, etc. can drastically affect the performance outcome. My system did very well in August and September, but since the middle of October has been only a breakeven strategy. I think you can understand my excitement when I saw your posted positive results!

I appreciate what you and others (Dubai, Scull, Matlobien, et al) have contributed to this strategy. And, thank you for the clarification of how you transition the trade from from the first breakout box of 11:00 to 13:00 with limited trade window to the following 12:00 to 14:30 breakout rules. I will implement those changes...should help a bunch!

Research studies show that the cable has the highest volatility and volume on Thursdays. If true, do you think it would warrant trading additional lots on the most active day of the week?

Good trading!
Bob

Hi Bob,

I did read somewhere that Thursday was statistically the day with the largest moves. I would stick to strick money management rules and not trade more that 1% - 2% of your trading account on any one trade.

Another point that you should bear in mind is that it is rare on cable to get a box breakout in the early morning session which is successfull in other words it reaches it target (I don't mean ones that fail or are stopped out for breakeven) (see my post # 2004) followed by another one in the afternoon

If you are looking to ensure that you minimise your loses it might be worth checking to see what the position was in relation to the morning breakout before entering a position in the afternoon

It is a shame that you are in the US because the USD CAD (early morning UK time 8.00am GMT) box breakout strategy is proving to be very reliable

Insta Forex is a good one.

I've been using it for a year or so.

is there some kind of instruction manual for the inputs? lol. Some of them look confusing

I have looked back over the period from 2 October to 13 November for USD CAD and here are the results:

10.30am - 12.30pm Box method

Box period: 10.30am to 12.30pm GMT. No trades taken before 12.30pm

Time limit: No trades taken after 16.45pm

Slope direction: using 160, 3, 0 and 80, 3, 0 from 15min chart. Providing that both lines match at the close of the 12.15 to 12.30pm bar you are looking to take the break of the box in the direction as indicated by slope

Entry: 1 pip above high or low of box (no use of a buffer)

Breakeven: Move after 15 pips

Stop: 14 pips + spread

Target: 43 pips (excluding spread)

Results:

5 winners

13 no trade

4 fail

8 breakeven

Total pips (allowing for spreads and losses) = 118

I believe that this is the optimum target. However if you set the target at 30 you get two more winners so the win percentage is 63% however the total pips falls to 103. If you set the target at 75 you get 3 winners so the win percentage is 43% however the total pips is 138


I did also compare this box period to a box starting at 12.00pm and ending at 14.30pm. The findings are as follows:

a) 3 of the 5 winners referred to above gave a much better entry based upon a box ending at 12.30. With the other 2 giving the same entry

b) Based upon my analysis if you have a position which has triggered based upon the 10.30am to 12.30pm box I would recommend that you ignore any signals generated by the 12.30pm to 14.30pm box

c) If there has been no valid set up based upon the 10.30am to 12.30pm box the results for subsequent set up's based upon the 12.30pm to 14.30pm box is as follows:


12.30pm - 14.30pm Box method

Box period: 12.30pm to 14.30pm GMT. No trades taken before 14.30pm

Time limit: No trades taken after 18.30pm

Slope direction: using 160, 3, 0 and 80, 3, 0 from 15min chart. Providing that both lines match at the close of the 14.15pm to 14.30pm bar you are looking to take the break of the box in the direction as indicated by slope

Entry: 7 pips above high or low of box (use of a 7 pip buffer)

Breakeven: Move after 15 pips

Stop: 14 pips + spread

Target: 33 pips from entry (excluding spread)

Results:

3 winners

1 fail

0 breakeven

Total pips (allowing for spreads and losses) = 66

However a sample of 5 trades during a 6 week peiod is a very small sample to base a trading strategy upon

The buffer would have kept you out of 1 trade which would have failed otherwise. I have including 1 win where the slope was not correct at the time of the break of the box. The price stayed outside the box until the slopes lined up correctly and retraced back to the entry point.


General observation:

I would not recommend any trades where the slopes are not correct at time the box is broken and the price move back within the box at which time the slopes line up correct direction before breaking the box for a second time. From my analysis they do not work out well


Please bear in mind that looking at a one month period is quite a short timeframe to review and I would not recommend trading this strategy without following it for a while to check that it does deliver reliable results

Hi Bobcat,

I would be careful with Cable today. I study the 2hr chart quite a bit and the last bar ending at 12.00pm just closed well outside the Bollinger bands and the current bar is also well outside. This would make any trade more risky

Just a word of warning. After saying that it will probably continue lower

Has anyone an Indicator or some other Idea to filter

sideways movement in the market.

That´s the only thing that annoying me with my strategie....

Greetz

vatoslocos

Hi Indy,

Thanks for the heads-up warning on trading this morning. The cable swing high to swing low was 215 pips on my FXDD platform...too risky to trade...besides it's a Friday.

Thanks again for all your research...that's a lot of work for you but it is much appreciated by a number of us here, I am certain.

After all your research, are you advocating both the New York Early and Late trading zones for both GBP/USD and USD/CAD? What about using this application on the London market?

Have a great weekend!