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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #48,381
  • Nov 19, 2009 4:01pm Nov 19, 2009 4:01pm
I'm currently looking at shorting EUR/CHF on this pin. This is what I see:

Pros:
Nice long pin extending through down trendline
62 fib retrace from high 14 bars prior (not shown)
Potential for breakout from months of consolidation

Cons:
Not at swing high
In traffic
First trouble area 25 pips away


Is this considered a risky trade? It seems the past few pins in consolidation have given predictable pips. Problem with this one is it seems to have run out of space. How would you handle this type of pin?

Thanks for your feedback everyone... just in my first few weeks of demoing.

-- Danny
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  • #48,382
  • Nov 19, 2009 4:05pm Nov 19, 2009 4:05pm
The GBP/JPY looks like it was an excellent trade for those that caught it. For those who didn't, like me, would we/should we try and get into a short on a retracement? If so where? 1.49?

Or has it had the fireworks and now all bets are off?
  • #48,383
  • Nov 19, 2009 4:05pm Nov 19, 2009 4:05pm
Quoting bluetrader
I'm currently looking at shorting EUR/CHF on this pin. This is what I see:

Pros:
Nice long pin extending through down trendline...
Hey Danny

Your cons for me would outweigh this situation. The eur/chf has been ranging so hard that I wouldn't doubt it goes the 25 pips, but it is a very choppy environment that I would be worried. The govt is trying to hold this one up too that is what is causing this mess

This for my methods is an easy stand aside

Best
Mike
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  • #48,384
  • Nov 19, 2009 4:06pm Nov 19, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting MattW
The GBP/JPY looks like it was an excellent trade for those that caught it. For those who didn't, like me, would we/should we try and get into a short on a retracement? If so where? 1.49?

Or has it had the fireworks and now all bets are off?
A retracement might give way to another opportunity, but be cautious never to go chasing a move b/c you felt you missed it. That can be the most dangerous part of forums and talking with those that caught a trade

Mike
  • #48,385
  • Nov 19, 2009 4:20pm Nov 19, 2009 4:20pm
Quoting mbqb11
A retracement might give way to another opportunity, but be cautious never to go chasing a move b/c you felt you missed it. That can be the most dangerous part of forums and talking with those that caught a trade

Mike
Thanks Mike. I've also been watching USD/CAD but I'm not sure what sort of PA to look for. I'm not confident in spotting the difference between a retracement before a long run and just a return into consolidation.

http://i729.photobucket.com/albums/w...ily19thNov.jpg
  • #48,386
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:05pm Nov 19, 2009 5:05pm
Quoting benji533
Missed GBPJPY....

But one supper great trade this week!
Benji,
Great work on that trade bro. So is your focus to wait till you have a strong bias for a daily and then drop down to the 5 and look for entries in the direction you want? May have to give it go sometime.
"Whether you think you can or can't, you're right." Henry Ford
  • #48,387
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:06pm Nov 19, 2009 5:06pm
Quoting benji533
Missed GBPJPY....

But one supper great trade this week!

Mike - you might be interested in the last chart
Benji, amazing trade on EURJPY. i also took this trade after identifying the area as being really strong what with the trendlines, pivots, whole numbers and multiple fibs all 'confluencing' in that area - a bounce seemed a very high probabilty.

During simulation i have seen that quite a lot of the shorter time frame pins seem to work at round number with confluence, especially on gbpusd and eurjpy. however i am not yet good enough to attempt that kind of entry. I entered on the break of the previous bar of the inside bar on the hourly. looking forward to one day being able to trade those kind of zones aggressively.
  • #48,388
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:27pm Nov 19, 2009 5:27pm
This is a EUR/GBP 2 day chart showing a 2bar pin (or a 4day pin if you will).
The 50% Fib is showing support.
A break upwards would also be a break of the downward trendline.
The second bar is an inside bar.

This, to my untrained eye, is a tradeable setup. Would anyone care to comment?
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  • #48,389
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:29pm Nov 19, 2009 5:29pm
good to see all is going well. ive had the pig flu for over a week just havnt said anything.

been grunting and snorting and looking for a mud hole all week.

im feeling a bit better today.

have any of you ever been to a pink floyd show where that crazy looking huge pig erupts out over the stage when they play pigs on the wing?

ive been dreaming of that damn pig all week.
  • #48,390
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:37pm Nov 19, 2009 5:37pm
Quoting james16
good to see all is going well. ive had the pig flu for over a week just havnt said anything.

been grunting and snorting and looking for a mud hole all week.

im feeling a bit better today.

have any of you ever been to a pink floyd show where that crazy looking huge pig erupts out over the stage when they play pigs on the wing?

ive been dreaming of that damn pig all week.

Glad to hear you are doing better.

Oink! Oink!
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #48,391
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:40pm Nov 19, 2009 5:40pm
god i love your signature.

i may have to steal that.

Quoting LasVahGoose
Glad to hear you are doing better.

Oink! Oink!
  • #48,392
  • Nov 19, 2009 6:27pm Nov 19, 2009 6:27pm
Quoting james16
have any of you ever been to a pink floyd show where that crazy looking huge pig erupts out over the stage when they play pigs on the wing?
Yep, The Pulse tour in Atlanta. The greatest concert I will ever see, I was Shrollin' on the 11th row! I think I was 18.
"Whether you think you can or can't, you're right." Henry Ford
  • #48,393
  • Nov 19, 2009 7:25pm Nov 19, 2009 7:25pm
Quoting james16
good to see all is going well. ive had the pig flu for over a week just havnt said anything.

been grunting and snorting and looking for a mud hole all week.

im feeling a bit better today.

have any of you ever been to a pink floyd show where that crazy looking huge pig erupts out over the stage when they play pigs on the wing?

ive been dreaming of that damn pig all week.
Get better big guy. Holidays are coming so its good to get that crap out of the way. (pun intended. lol)

Missed that concert regrettably.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #48,394
  • Nov 19, 2009 7:59pm Nov 19, 2009 7:59pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Danny

Your cons for me would outweigh this situation. The eur/chf has...
Mike, thanks for the explanation. I see now that the risks far outweigh the potential reward.

BTW, your analysis of USD/CHF on 10/2007 was spot on. For those of you who aren't reading the entire thread, you are missing out big time -- it's a great way to kill time waiting for daily setups.

Feel better Jim.

-- Danny
  • #48,395
  • Nov 19, 2009 8:31pm Nov 19, 2009 8:31pm
Quoting james16
good to see all is going well. ive had the pig flu for over a week just havnt said anything.

been grunting and snorting and looking for a mud hole all week.

im feeling a bit better today.

have any of you ever been to a pink floyd show where that crazy looking huge pig erupts out over the stage when they play pigs on the wing?

ive been dreaming of that damn pig all week.

Glad to hear you are getting better! I have been doing a damn good job of evading the pig flu! I work retail and see people sneezing and coughing all day long, even at my home. Hope that I dont get it!
  • #48,396
  • Nov 19, 2009 8:40pm Nov 19, 2009 8:40pm
Quoting bundyraider
Hi Jim,

No, I draw my fibs always using Highs/lows. I want the whole range.

...I'm not sure if this is what you were asking though, J??
Yes, that's what I was asking. Thanks.


Quoting bundyraider
(edit: no I am, actually. Closing on the favourable side of a fib level after a stab through it, I like too. Had to think about what I do. lol ...pretty much as I say below for 'breaks'. A correct close price 'convinces' me. Well convinces me 'more'. lol)

Close price holds much, much weight for me. In all aspects of the charts. i.e. "Who won?"

Price staying over the break side of a level and closing there convincingly, I like a lot.

Edit (again. ): I'll add more.... If the close...
Seeing where Price closes at the end of the Day, Week, Month, at their respective time frame's PPZs, S/Rs, Big round numbers, etc., I'm sure are looked at by the big boys.
This just confirms to me that the Close of Price (i.e. using the line chart at the Close) gives an interest perspective with the High/Low PPZs, S/R levels, RNs, etc.

Again, without complicating things.


Thanks brother.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #48,397
  • Nov 19, 2009 8:59pm Nov 19, 2009 8:59pm
Quoting jarroo
Well said jon. Very good post. (Ditto with Mike)

So what do we do with a very good post? We refer to it often so we don't forget it. So if a PB fails on us, we don't scratch head and wonder why it failed.


Jim
Hey, thanx Jarroo, coming from you and Mike it MUST mean im learning something from you guys !
cheers.


Hey Mike, i think i got the EXACT same entry on the gb/yen trade but i bottled it before it broke lol

my gb/us short is looking ok though closed two thirds at about the original stop size and moved my stop to just above 167.00. it all for free now so i want to let it ride if poss.??....thats one steep trend line!...a 50% retrace of that would be nice!??
jon
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #48,398
  • Nov 19, 2009 9:03pm Nov 19, 2009 9:03pm
hi Bundy, i loved that "who won" statement!! brings it all home crystal clear.
another golden nugget me thinks.
cheers
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #48,399
  • Nov 19, 2009 9:13pm Nov 19, 2009 9:13pm
Quoting james16
good to see all is going well. ive had the pig flu for over a week just havnt said anything.

been grunting and snorting and looking for a mud hole all week.

im feeling a bit better today.

have any of you ever been to a pink floyd show where that crazy looking huge pig erupts out over the stage when they play pigs on the wing?

ive been dreaming of that damn pig all week.
Glad your getting better boss man, hope it continues
i once had tickets to see floyd but they postponed to a date when i was on holiday visiting my bro
but when i got there my bro had bought tickets to see prince to compensate!!fantastic show!!(this was in his 1999 days when he was a bit normal) lol
get well friend and stay well.
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #48,400
  • Nov 19, 2009 9:23pm Nov 19, 2009 9:23pm
Quoting icarusfx
sorry helps to attach.... up @ 4 with my son this morning and this is what is does to me lol

edit: good strong break of dbl after ib! good dibs trade... jaroo did you trade this one?

ps stopped out on last 1/3 of cable trade around b/e
Hi icarus.

If your asking did I take the DIBS trade on the Aud/Usd, no I didn't. I haven't be looking at many DIBS trades for a long while due to time availability. Nor did I take the DBHLC, is this the one your referring to . . (Chart).

We like those DBHLC at swing highs and DBLHC at swing lows. They can be played as a continuation trade with obvious supportive confluences: off a PPZ level, round number, fib levels , etc.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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