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  • #7,801
  • Nov 19, 2009 4:58pm Nov 19, 2009 4:58pm
Quoting elitejets
I know what you are talking about. Lets see what the BoJ do tonight.
I am thinking that this move down and up on most JPY pairs was some kind of stop running or entry triggering and then reversal to clear the decks. Looking to JPY weakness in the near future.

If I am right... you read it here first.
If I am wrong.... please delete this post.
  • #7,802
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:02pm Nov 19, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
Don't we assume it is already in the price now? Which makes it tempting.

B Boss's upwards thrust apparently weakening, Boss retraced to 50 Fib and major S line and forming a hammer, and the Daily stopped at the S line and 50 Fib. No break of the UP TL on either the Daily or the Boss.

Probably better to wait to see a strong close above 8470 although that would waste quite a few pips if it does start to move up.

Next R would be 8970 on my chart.

[b]I've got two shorts running, EURGBP and EURJPY which are only hanging on by the skin...

MMMMMMM....delicious
  • #7,803
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:06pm Nov 19, 2009 5:06pm
Quoting Alexandra
MMMMMMM....delicious
You are very criptic Alexandra!

Which bit is 'delicious', my failing shorts or the AUDJPY comment?

Just seeking to learn a bit more at each stage of the Path, that's all.
  • #7,804
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:16pm Nov 19, 2009 5:16pm
Quoting forexample

...And how long to leave them (TL's) on a chart after they are broken? Should we be leaving past trend-lines on the chart to see if they may become DSRI's or loving them and leaving them as soon as they slip up?
Although I answered your question, I think visual is more explanatory.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY-Daily.jpg Size: 174 KB
  • #7,805
  • Edited 5:33pm Nov 19, 2009 5:22pm | Edited 5:33pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
You are very criptic Alexandra!

Which bit is 'delicious', my failing shorts or the AUDJPY comment?

Just seeking to learn a bit more at each stage of the Path, that's all.
Let me join the "crypto" camp.

"Maybe the dinner to be served is delicious"
  • #7,806
  • Edited 11:30pm Nov 19, 2009 5:24pm | Edited 11:30pm
Quoting soso
Strat, are you familiar with Sam Seiden concepts on Supply & Demand? "His" findings and explanations sound very logical to me. Here's a pdf with the basics http://www.kantorfx.com/ebooks/suppl...&%20demand.pdf
Hi Soso,

Sam Seiden is a really down to earth guy. Had a chance to meet and talk with him back in the Summer. There is an OTA branch in the Twin Cities. Got my S/R start with him many moons ago... his free stuff on the link you listed is a good start, plus more free good ideas especially when coupled with Strat's teachings, can be found at Online Trading Academy. My problem is that he is often on much smaller TF and on stocks... neither of which I trade. http://www.tradingacademy.com/newsletters.htm

Lou
  • #7,807
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:40pm Nov 19, 2009 5:40pm
Quoting Blackeagle
Let me join the "crypto" camp.

"Maybe the dinner to be served is delicious"
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon3.gifLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon3.gif

Well you will both have to forgive me being so dense! It is late here in London and the whisky is rather good.

Anyway at nearly 68 the candle rises only infrequently so expecting a short is usually most likely to prove successful.http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
  • #7,808
  • Nov 19, 2009 6:09pm Nov 19, 2009 6:09pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
You are very criptic Alexandra!

Which bit is 'delicious', my failing shorts or the AUDJPY comment?

Just seeking to learn a bit more at each stage of the Path, that's all.
You are right - sorry - Just having a bit of fun with that one - Strat's comment is on the money I believe in that one......Chunnel bounced very smartly off of thet big fat line, so I do not understand your short in that one. E/J can be argued either way for the moment.
  • #7,809
  • Nov 19, 2009 6:24pm Nov 19, 2009 6:24pm
Quoting Alexandra
You are right - sorry - Just having a bit of fun with that one - Strat's comment is on the money I believe in that one......Chunnel bounced very smartly off of thet big fat line, so I do not understand your short in that one. E/J can be argued either way for the moment.
Well, the short on EURGBP was taken on Monday and did okay on Tuesday (my time), started to go north yesterday and probably should have closed out but......

EURJPY has been successful for me in the past as it trades within a channel and looked as if it was going down again on Friday 13th (??), and it did okay until end of today. Oh well......

Just haven't got the hang of moving Stops. With high volatility there is always the dilemma of risking getting stopped out too soon vs. taking profits too soon................don't know how to handle that one yet.

Thanks for your response.
  • #7,810
  • Edited 7:31pm Nov 19, 2009 6:50pm | Edited 7:31pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
Well, the short on EURGBP was taken on Monday and did okay on Tuesday (my time), started to go north yesterday and probably should have closed out but......

EURJPY has been successful for me in the past as it trades within a channel and looked as if it was going down again on Friday 13th (??), and it did okay until end of today. Oh well......

Just haven't got the hang of moving Stops. With high volatility there is always the dilemma of risking getting stopped out too soon vs. taking profits too soon................don't know how to handle that...

Constructively (I owe you that), one practical method is to avoid the excessively volitile (E/Y) or high pip count (Chunnel) markets in favor of straight EURUSD or USDCAD. Those markets trade more technically, respecting the appropriate levels more than E/J, which overshoots all the time. Hence, it is much easier to define a stop loss point and trust thet it won't be run; it is also much easier to trail in those markets.
  • #7,811
  • Nov 20, 2009 1:34am Nov 20, 2009 1:34am
Quoting strat
It's all waffle, fluff and filler. Too much reliance on "green dots". How do they configure their magic "green dots"? Why do they need "green dots"? Can't they read PRICE ACTION?

We have explained Supply & Demand in greater detail than that. I hope you didn't pay for that garbage!
No I didnt pay, it is freely available.

I didnt even notice the green dots, or forgot about them, my attention got caught by how he uses congestion areas as supply/demand zones. Anyway as you say there's enough information available in this thread.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,812
  • Nov 20, 2009 1:46am Nov 20, 2009 1:46am
Quoting Lou
Hi Soso,

Sam Seiden is a really down to earth guy. Had a chance to meet and talk with him back in the Summer. There is an OTA branch in the Twin Cities. Got my S/R start with him many moons ago... his free stuff on the link you listed is a good start, plus more free good ideas especially when coupled with Strat's teachings, can be found at Online Trading Academy. My problem is that he is often on much smaller TF and on stocks... neither of which I trade. http://www.tradingacademy.com/newsletters.htm

Lou
Thanks Lou, will have a look.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,813
  • Nov 20, 2009 2:47am Nov 20, 2009 2:47am
It has been said many times by Strat and other pro traders here/there that trading is about 5% technical and 95% psychology. I believe this is the way professional traders view trading (and we should all view it as such); they always strive to develop their psycho muscle and vigour.

I found this pdf file about trading psychology and think it might help some of us here. It buttresse(s) the point Strat has been hammering almost within each page of this thread.

Thanks
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf TDT-quizanswers.pdf   100 KB | 976 downloads
  • #7,814
  • Nov 20, 2009 3:21am Nov 20, 2009 3:21am
Hello Traders,

Many of you will be wondering why I keep on posting articles about trading psychology. I just realised that at this time of the year, it is important for me to take inventory of my trading activities within the year 2009 and sift the wheat from the chaff.

While doing this activity, I noticed a lot of character flaw that is not allowing my trading account to grow the way it should or that I want it to grow. I then said to myself I would not like to carry the 'bad-habit' over to next year as I have been doing this repeated over the last 5years of my trading career.

At this time, my focus is not on making any further trades but to continue to analyse why I am making these mistakes over and over again and chart a plan to ditch these habit. This is what led to my quest for knowledge of how to communicate with the little man in my head for a successful forex career.

In the meantime, enjoy this article by Joe Ross

How do you react to unanticipated events during the trading day? When you are trying to put on a position, are you upset when you can't get a complete fill? When your high-speed data line goes down, do you react with anger or frustration? When you make a trading error, do you react with self-reproach? When your money is on the line, it's natural to strive for perfectionism and seek out complete control. If only we could control the world to such a great extent that there was no uncertainty, a world where all is known. Unfortunately, we can't. In the end, we must accept uncertainty and work around it. It is vital to anticipate all possible outcomes, and avoid over-reacting.

Our expectations often control our emotions. When our expectations don't match what actually happens in our lives, we react emotionally and often impulsively. We have a natural human desire to win, but often face many trading losses. Trading is a profession in which you should work under the assumption that you could see more losing trades than winners, so expecting to win is likely to produce frustration or disappointment. This fact of life can be stress-producing, and somewhat disturbing. But it doesn't have to overwhelm you. If you are caught off-guard, a losing trade or unexpected setback will disappoint you. If you anticipate it, however, you'll stay more calm and more relaxed, ready to take decisive action to remedy the situation.

It's important to anticipate adverse events rather than react impulsively and emotionally. Consider the ideal way of reacting to a common, everyday event. A pet peeve of many drivers in rush hour traffic is that fellow drivers are not very courteous. They often impatiently cut off other drivers, drive too fast, and change lanes too frequently. One may experience "road rage" if he or she steadfastly holds the belief that "drivers should obey all traffic laws and make no driving errors." Consider the various ways that you might react to such an event. If you believe that such events should never happen and that it should not happen to you, you will react with anger. And if you are too angry, you may not pay close enough attention and get into an accident. If, on the other hand, you anticipate potential problems, you'll be able to focus on what to do next. Rather than get angry and become distracted, you will calmly think about how to take evasive action to protect yourself. Rather than accidentally running into the car as it cuts you off, you'll slow down and avoid an accident.

It is much the same way with trading. You can't prevent your data feed from going down, but you can take action to prevent it from undermining your plans. If you anticipate the problem, you will calmly use a dial-up connection to see if you can remedy the situation. It is important to remember that your psychological energy is limited, and if you get caught off-guard, you will react emotionally rather than decisively and with a focused concentration that can get you out of the unpleasant circumstances you have encountered.

Adverse events in trading are the rule rather than the exception. If you realistically anticipate such setbacks, though, you won't be caught off-guard psychologically. You'll be able to bounce back quickly, and come out ahead in the long run.
  • #7,815
  • Nov 20, 2009 3:32am Nov 20, 2009 3:32am
Strat, I promise I will not post anything this long again till maybe next month (lol).

Here is another very important article by Joe Ross - it still about the 95% pscho start is talking about.

Enjoy:

Trading can be an exciting profession. It's exciting to think of how much money you can make, and how that money can change your life. Some traders enjoy anticipating how a trade will turn out, while others enjoy the rush that a trade offers. Still other traders say they actually feel bored during the trading day. Sometimes trading isn't exciting, especially day trading, where you can sit for hours waiting for a trade.


Overall, it's a matter of waiting for the right moment, and that can be boring at times. It's at these times when traders may overtrade, just to put a little excitement in their lives. I've done it, haven't you?

My market behavior is all too often motivated by fear and greed. Fear and greed do not carry equal weight. I hate a loss much more than I enjoy a win. Still, the emotions of fear and greed can be exciting.

Although I may not enjoy the unpleasant feelings of a possible loss, a fact of my trading life is that in order to make money, I have to risk money.

In the end, my lust for a win overcomes my fear. I'll bet it's the same for most, if not all, traders and investors.

You trade to make profits, but you often exit a trade because of fear. Being in the market often involves interplay between fear and greed, which can result in a dramatic situation. You enjoy the drama. To fight off monotony and boredom, you trade, even when it is not a very good idea. The drama can be emotionally intense. You become excited about winning but are frightened about losing, and sell to protect what you have left. But then boredom sets in again. The desire to make big profits excites you, and you enter the markets again. And so the drama keeps repeating itself.

It is useful to understand the motives and irrationality of your behavior. By seeking out thrills and excitement, you trade or invest, but because of panic, you get out too soon. Your premature exit results in a loss.

When it comes to trading, you have to decide which side of the drama you want to be on. Do you want to be one of the many who act on fear and greed, or do you want to be one of the few winning traders who capitalize on the tendencies of other traders to act out of emotion?

As a trader, you can be right there, ready to take their money. While they buy and sell to add drama to their lives, the professional can anticipate how they act on their fear and greed, and make money from their predictable moves.

On the other hand, you have to acknowledge your own powerful need for drama and excitement. A professional trader is just as human as an amateur trader, and because of that, has a need for drama and excitement in everyday life.

We all have a need for drama and excitement, but it is essential that we keep those needs out of our trading lives. Trading can be tedious, repetitious, and boring. We must consistently and systematically execute a trading strategy again, and again. It's a mistake to become a victim of our need to seek out drama. So, what's the solution?

Make sure you get your drama and excitement in a different arena, outside of trading. If you satisfy this need somewhere else, you can deal with the relatively boring and repetitious nature of methodically trading your plan. The markets are exciting and offer drama, but make sure that you stay professional, and don't allow the drama of the market to undermine your trading plan. The more you can trade unemotionally, the more profits you'll realize.
  • #7,816
  • Nov 20, 2009 4:50am Nov 20, 2009 4:50am
Quoting Alexandra
Constructively (I owe you that), one practical method is to avoid the excessively volitile (E/Y) or high pip count (Chunnel) markets in favor of straight EURUSD or USDCAD. Those markets trade more technically, respecting the appropriate levels more than E/J, which overshoots all the time. Hence, it is much easier to define a stop loss point and trust thet it won't be run; it is also much easier to trail in those markets.
Yep that is wise. I get a bit nervous when I see charts with all those very spiky candles with enormously long wicks and shadows - a sure sign of volatility. I'll stick to the neatly formed and tighter candled pairs in future.

Overall I'm still ahead since starting trading for money at the end of July and made quite a lot in October from EURJPY, so I won some and lost a very small amount from that pair, but it was a hairy ride I admit. I may go back to it when I am more confident on the 'boring' pairs.

Thanks again for your comments. [I'll be more careful of the wording of posts in future!!!http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif]
  • #7,817
  • Nov 20, 2009 5:39am Nov 20, 2009 5:39am
I have just finished the first 100 pages of this thread. I thought I would celebrate by sharing something that I got out of my book 'Trading in the Zone' by Mark Douglas. If it has already been posted I apologise for using up valuable space and time.

1. Anything can happen.
2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
5. Every moment in the market is unique.

I have that in big letters in front of my computer screen, all I need is the edge, and I have a feeling that I have found it here.

I will post a chart and some analysis soon, so much to do so little time.
  • #7,818
  • Edited 6:21am Nov 20, 2009 6:17am | Edited 6:21am
I have attached my weekly and daily charts with lines of sup and res for your critique, too many/too few. I made them fairly thick for clarity on your behalf and they are all at round numbers within a pip or 3.

The analysis is fairly straightforward, the d/y is short and near to major support, any break though at 8850 has not much support below so the drop could be precipitious. I would not trade any long until the Boss says so, if there is a retracement I will be ready to go short again at the first decent PA at res.

I come from a place where I was taught to try and trade 15m so this is all a big change. Then I was shown how you wait for the 5m to be long/short, then wait for the 15m to follow anf finally when the 60m is also long/short that you could then pull the trigger. No wonder I couldn't make any decent pips, all arse about face.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy weekly.jpg Size: 163 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy daily.jpg Size: 137 KB
  • #7,819
  • Nov 20, 2009 6:25am Nov 20, 2009 6:25am
Quoting Lotuselanman
Yep that is wise. I get a bit nervous when I see charts with all those very spiky candles with enormously long wicks and shadows - a sure sign of volatility. I'll stick to the neatly formed and tighter candled pairs in future.

Overall I'm still ahead since starting trading for money at the end of July and made quite a lot in October from EURJPY, so I won some and lost a very small amount from that pair, but it was a hairy ride I admit. I may go back to it when I am more confident on the 'boring' pairs.

Thanks again for your comments. [I'll be...

Keep your eye on that E/J trendline - glad it is working out for you!
  • #7,820
  • Nov 20, 2009 9:06am Nov 20, 2009 9:06am
Quoting femfam
It has been said many times by Strat and other pro traders here/there that trading is about 5% technical and 95% psychology. I believe this is the way professional traders view trading (and we should all view it as such); they always strive to develop their psycho muscle and vigour.

I found this pdf file about trading psychology and think it might help some of us here. It buttresse(s) the point Strat has been hammering almost within each page of this thread.

Thanks
Good stuff, femfam!

OK, where does the "femfam" moniker come from?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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