Skracor's Thoughts and Journal of Trading

No more S/R are added at this point only a 15M Trendline. As you have probably guessed the Most important thing here is to know where the trend is at all times.

The final part of my chart is the 1M. Here I also add trendlines to identify the most immediate trend and trade with that.

Entries are taken mainly off the 1M Chart. I know there will be those that scoff at this... so be it. The first thing I look for is a break of a 1M Trendline.

My Definition of a Trendline Break: When a candle closes through the Trendline but is not complete until there is a retest of the backside of the TL after which the Trendline is then totally defunct.

Strong Trendline breaks are accompanied by a retest and occur near larger TL's or S/R or both.

Trendline Fakeouts often occur quickly where the retest candles close back inside the trendline. These happen more frequently when there is nothing else supporting the Break.

Entries with the trend often happen near the larger TL but not strictly.

More caution is needed when entering retracement trades. These are looked for when the price is very far from the Larger TL and when a S/R is nearby.

Here is an example of a long setup. I know this example looks cherry picked but I am going to strive to give live examples as much as possible.

Notice the nice retest of the TL after the break out.

Also the Trade was with the 15M and 4H trends just after the 15M rejected going down to touch the 4H Trendline signifying a trend continuation.

Heres a Live example of the charts how I am looking at them.

At the break and retest of the 1M TL a long retracement entry will be triggered.

Supporting evidence: M15 TL is broken to the downside. Therefore current 15M trend is down until further notice. 1M Break signifies Retracement to establish the 15M TL.

Target will be the S/R at 6757 or TL break to end the Retracement.

Trade Complete.

Worked out well enough though the reward was relatively small.

Now its time to look for a TL break in the opposite direction to continue the M15 Trend down to the 4H major TL.


Chime in if you have something to say.

New TL Break in the direction of the M15 Trend. Unfortunately there was no wonderful pullback to get in on. If I had entered Immediately following the bar that broke the TL this trade would have produced pips immediately.

I was not able to take this trade but now would be a good time to place the SL at BE. No sense being sloppy.

First thing I see this morning is the setup. I won't be taking any trades though(watching the little one) but will be trading asian session this evening.

First a nice break of the 4H TL 4H is now most likely in a down trend will wait for confirmation. The retest of the 4H TL is happening right now.

15M Up trend. This is also the Retest you see on the 4H chart. When the 15M TL is broken we will see the continuation of the new 4H trend...we shall see.

Upcoming retracement trade on the 1M to go back to the 15M TL.

After the retrace there was a continuation trade and another retracement trade and now it looks like it is setting up for another continuation trade.

As you can see this would have been a great trade TL break with a nice retest for entry small stop loss and a nice big reward. Hope all are having a good trading day.

Potential upcoming retracement trade. Waiting for the break of the 1M TL targeting the M15 TL or a TL break for continuation.

small trade I took on the Euro. my thinking was the price was at a S/R had broken one 15M TL and was near another older 15M TL. at this point I am thinking 15M Trend is up but there is no area to draw the TL. just had a bounce off the 4H TL so this is a small trade to the short side for just a couple pips(4 to be exact). in and out in less than 5 minutes.

That's enough charts for now no one seems interested anyway.

Sold GBP 1.67245 at 11:24 EST
Closed at 1.67150 at 11:41 EST

Trade was with the trend took profit at a 4H S/R but I am getting tired and am excited for US session open so will stop and begin again tomorrow.

I'm beginning to see that TF is not what I thought it was. It is merely a way to break up data so that it can be more easily processed. Therefore Trend is a relative term.

It is easy to see the 'waves' that price makes on a higher TF and then when you move down they are lost in all the 'spray', some would call this 'noise', but if you can identify a 'wave' on a higher TF why not simply identify that as the lower TF's current Trend? What I am thinking about is allowing the higher TF to determine the lower TF's trend and then trading accordingly. So my 4H Trendline is determined by the last 'swing' or 'wave' on the weekly chart, and so on and so forth down to the 1M chart.

This is what my TL looks like after I take into consideration the Weekly chart, followed by what that TL would look like on the Weekly chart.

Today's bright and cheery thought.

If the ratio of losers to winners in Forex is roughly 95:5. And the Eur/Usd is the most traded/ largest volume currency pair.

Then the Eur/Usd has the largest number of patsies trading it, and is the most subject to manipulation(i.e. stop hunts and fake outs) by the large money interests.

I would like to post something that has been alluded to in many other threads but that I have not quite grasped, until now.

Price turns in areas or 'zones' that are very precise and broad at the same time in that you can identify the area where a decision will be made but not always the exact moment it will come to completion. Perhaps it is easier if I post a chart and explain it rather than continue to write and confuse myself.

I am not sure why it has taken me so long to see them but now that I have I love to look at the charts and find these little treasures everywhere.

In this chart you can clearly see the areas where price turned previously(Zones) and how they affected the price in the future. Now I am not suggesting that price will always turn in these areas, but that there is a higher potential for them to turn especially if there is an established Trend.

Waiting for possible:
Long EUR/JPY
Short USD/CAD
Long GBP/USD

Should be fairly safe trades are with the trend with the exception of the EUR/JPY.

H4 trend is down possibly broken but we are in a zone so whatever is decided will be. Right now I'm still looking down.

M15 trend is up hopefully breaks soon then I will have an entry into the H4 down move.