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  • #7,661
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:17am Nov 16, 2009 10:17am
Quoting forexample
Still lurking, not being caught up with all of the thread I am working through it a piece at a time, trying to balance getting caught up with reading and understanding every post.

There are a lot of wisdoms on this thread, many relating to psychology; Strat has done an amazing job of creating a true thread about forex trading and I am truly thankful to find a place that teaches the true art of trading. After about page 10 I went into my bookmarks and deleted all those other threads that had been wasting my time.

I grew up poor; passed high school,...
Acceptance of where we have been, what we have done and where we went wrong is a BIGGER step than you think.

Many people refuse to accept they have been down the wrong path and continue to ignore the advice of experience. I was the worst culprit of this. I refused to believe I was wrong. It wasn’t until I ACCEPTED I was a dumb shit who knew nothing that the clouds started lifting, blue skies appeared, the sun shone, and the light bulb came on.

As Lou said, your post is a good contribution and an inspiration to others in the same place reading this. Thank you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,662
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:23am Nov 16, 2009 10:23am
Well, for almost 2 hours yesterday, I was transported back to 1966 as we saw the movie “Pirate Radio”.

Those were the days, even the BOSS remarked what good times we had, so it MUST have been good!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,663
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:48am Nov 16, 2009 10:48am
This is one I am watching at the moment

Big Boss - trending up for 9 months closing on the highs of July 08 ( possible strong resistance )
Boss - Solid upward staircase above EMA 20 and SMA 50
Worker - Above SMA 50 and tracking EMA 20, trend has increased in momentum pulling away from longterm DSRI and forming short term higher momentum TL. Current TL confluence with 9798 resistance.

PLAN - Wait for PA on current TL, 90 pips to nearest resistance with 50 pip risk, acceptable risk reward. If PA shows itself this looks like a good trade to the 9900 level. My inclination would be to trade 2 lots, taking one out at the first SR of 9900 , moving to break even on the remaining lot and seeing if the push up continues or longterm resistance prevails, risk appetite of 2% would allow this plan of action.

Comments appreciated
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  • #7,664
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:57am Nov 16, 2009 10:57am
Quoting cliftonarms
This is one I am watching at the moment

Big Boss - trending up for 9 months closing on the highs of July 08
Boss - Solid upward staircase above EMA 20 and SMA 50
Worker - Above SMA 50 and tracking EMA 20, trend has increased in momentum pulling away from longterm DSRI and forming short term higher momentum TL. Current TL confluence with 9798 resistance.

PLAN - Wait for PA on current TL, 90 pips to nearest resistance with 50 pip risk, acceptable risk reward. If PA shows itself this looks like a good trade to the 9900...
Analysis is good but the big boys are gone leaving smaller traders to mess with it. I'm out until I see what she does at the big fat line at 0.9900 or at 0.9610.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,665
  • Nov 16, 2009 11:13am Nov 16, 2009 11:13am
Quoting strat
There is so much more to PASR than just “recognizing” candles AND classical candle shapes, proportions and positions. BUT, in the beginning, you MUST learn and recognize these basic candles and then progress to “seeing beyond the candles”....
Strat this post is VERY helpful and informative. Might it be a good one to go in the Index?
  • #7,666
  • Nov 16, 2009 12:11pm Nov 16, 2009 12:11pm
Quoting strat
Analysis is good but the big boys are gone leaving smaller traders to mess with it. I'm out until I see what she does at the big fat line at 0.9900 or at 0.9610.
Strat

I understand that you are looking at the longer term, but would this trade not be suitable for a Strat beginner who is primarily only trading to the first confirmed SR line?

Or do you still perceive the risk too high due to the strong support above.
  • #7,667
  • Nov 16, 2009 12:29pm Nov 16, 2009 12:29pm
Quoting cliftonarms
Strat

I understand that you are looking at the longer term, but would this trade not be suitable for a Strat beginner who is primarily only trading to the first confirmed SR line?

Or do you still perceive the risk too high due to the strong support above.
Nail on the head, pub trader! You must trade where there is lots of room for the trade to go. Here, we are restricted until resolution of that fat line.

The safest, lowest risk way is to trade between two major SR lines. Stay away from trading into or near fat lines - too much can happen within 100 pips of those lines. There is usually an "energy" in this area that we have no control over.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,668
  • Nov 16, 2009 12:45pm Nov 16, 2009 12:45pm
Quoting strat
Nail on the head, pub trader! You must trade where there is lots of room for the trade to go. Here, we are restricted until resolution of that fat line.

The safest, lowest risk way is to trade between two major SR lines. Stay away from trading into or near fat lines - too much can happen within 100 pips of those lines. There is usually an "energy" in this area that we have no control over.
That makes perfect sense Strat, thanks for the clarification. Trigger finger chopped off for the near future.
  • #7,669
  • Nov 16, 2009 12:54pm Nov 16, 2009 12:54pm
How can you tell that the "bigs boys" are out now and that this recent PA is due to small players? Appreciate any advice/insight you can offer on this..
Quoting strat
Analysis is good but the big boys are gone leaving smaller traders to mess with it. I'm out until I see what she does at the big fat line at 0.9900 or at 0.9610.
  • #7,670
  • Nov 16, 2009 1:04pm Nov 16, 2009 1:04pm
Quoting trogger
How can you tell that the "bigs boys" are out now and that this recent PA is due to small players? Appreciate any advice/insight you can offer on this..
Price at resistance, smaller moves, smaller candles, no volatility, no direction - calm before the storm
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,671
  • Nov 16, 2009 1:49pm Nov 16, 2009 1:49pm
Strat/Blackeagle,

This is TDAmeritrade's chart with correct volume for the S&P500. I know we've discarded volume as tradable for Forex but I believe it's still valid for stocks.

Check the daily volume on the S&P500. Consecutively lower volume on up days since the beginning of November and the smoothest decline of volume since the recovery. Today's volume (even though there's an hour and a half to go) is the lowest yet.

Does this not indicate a lack of professional money participating and perhaps the beginning of a flattening out?

Not looking to begin a sidebar on volume, just curious on your opinions on the dichotomy of PA vs volume.
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  • #7,672
  • Nov 16, 2009 1:55pm Nov 16, 2009 1:55pm
Quoting mstandifer
Strat/Blackeagle,

This is TDAmeritrade's chart with correct volume for the S&P500....
Volume is VERY valuable on Stocks, Indices, Futures and Commodities. How I wish there was an easy way to get Forex volume, but there isn't, short of tracking Futures volume on each currency.

Anyway, a big move like that on lower than normal volume is usually, a fake out.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,673
  • Nov 16, 2009 3:23pm Nov 16, 2009 3:23pm
BOSS.
4 Weeks ago price climbed up strongly through 1.75 level. Last 2 weeks price closed above this level, looking like buyers are defending this level.

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Worker.
Today leaves us (in 30 min or so on my feed) a Hammer off 1.75 level. Considering the above about the BOSS I am taking a long off this hammer BUT although the BOSS is showing buying strength the UP trend is not confirmed.
So I will play it to the first Daily Resistance level at to 1.783. If it goes here I will decide if I close/tighten/do nothing with the position.

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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,674
  • Nov 16, 2009 3:39pm Nov 16, 2009 3:39pm
Quoting soso
BOSS.
4 Weeks ago price climbed up strongly through 1.75 level. Last 2 weeks price closed above this level, looking like buyers are defending this level.

Attachment


Worker.
Today leaves us (in 30 min or so on my feed) a Hammer off 1.75 level. Considering the above about the BOSS I am taking a long off this hammer BUT although the BOSS is showing buying strength the UP trend is not confirmed.
So I will play it to the first Daily Resistance level at to 1.783. If it goes here I will decide if I close/tighten/do nothing...
SOSO

On my GBPCAD daily chart I am showing a 5 month TL / DSRI line connecting the highs of 30th June 09 to 9th Nov 09.

Would this line not reduce your risk / reward ratio by about 50% ? This TL has stopped me considering a long at the moment on this pair. I am waiting for a TL touch before I reconsider this pair.

Health warning : I am relatively new at this so take my comments with a pinch of salt.
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  • #7,675
  • Nov 16, 2009 3:51pm Nov 16, 2009 3:51pm
Quoting cliftonarms
SOSO

On my GBPCAD daily chart I am showing a 5 month TL / DSRI line connecting the highs of 30th June 09 to 9th Nov 09.

Would this line not reduce your risk / reward ratio by about 50% ? This TL has stopped me considering a long at the moment on this pair.

Health warning : I am relatively new at this so take my comments with a pinch of salt.
I'm a begginer too at PASR so...

As long as the price makes LL & LH you can find bearish DSRIs. I didnt see the one you talked about but I did see the main supply one that supported the whole move down since June 30. It was broken, supply shrinked?

I'm not that much into DSRIs (please dont shoot me Strat! ), especially longer term ones, I know Strat & many of you would disagree but I feel better naked. Even the MAs confuse me although the power of the 20 is undeniable and I am not dumping it just dont know where could fit in for me.
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,676
  • Nov 16, 2009 3:56pm Nov 16, 2009 3:56pm
Quoting strat
Analysis is good but the big boys are gone leaving smaller traders to mess with it. I'm out until I see what she does at the big fat line at 0.9900 or at 0.9610.
Thanks Strat - another simple Gem of a post; it becomes so clear now you say that
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #7,677
  • Nov 16, 2009 4:00pm Nov 16, 2009 4:00pm
Quoting soso
I'm a begginer too at PASR so...

As long as the price makes LL & LH you can find bearish DSRIs. I didnt see the one you talked about but I did see the main supply one that supported the whole move down since June 30. It was broken, supply shrinked?

I'm not that much into DSRIs (please dont shoot me Strat! ), especially longer term ones, I know Strat & many of you would disagree but I feel better naked. Even the MAs confuse me although the power of the 20 is undeniable and I am not dumping it just dont know where could fit in for me.
Your line looks so much more convincing than mine !.. I'll watch this pair for a couple of days and see if my DSRI line actually has any strength, or is a work of my creative and overactive imagination.
  • #7,678
  • Nov 16, 2009 4:13pm Nov 16, 2009 4:13pm
Quoting cliftonarms
Your line looks so much more convincing than mine !.. I'll watch this pair for a couple of days and see if my DSRI line actually has any strength, or is a work of my creative and overactive imagination.
Limited opportunity and high risk.

Is this the best trade you can SEE?

Or are you just DESPERATE TO TRADE?
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,679
  • Nov 16, 2009 4:30pm Nov 16, 2009 4:30pm
Quoting strat
Limited opportunity and high risk.

Is this the best trade you can SEE?

Or are you just DESPERATE TO TRADE?
In my defense "officer" I was not actually considering this trade but commenting on SOSOs observations, his differing TL positioning, and the low R/R ( in my humble opinion ). Plus seeing if the future market reacted to my TL at all.

If this currency had come onto my radar I do sincerely hope that my future self would have the presence of mind to observe the narrowing channel and assess the trade objectively.
  • #7,680
  • Nov 16, 2009 4:38pm Nov 16, 2009 4:38pm
Quoting cliftonarms
In my defense "officer" I was not actually considering this trade but commenting on SOSOs observations, his differing TL positioning, and the low R/R ( in my humble opinion ). Plus seeing if the future market reacted to my TL at all.

If this currency had come onto my radar I do sincerely hope that my future self would have the presence of mind to observe the narrowing channel and assess the trade objectively.
It was mainly for soso but while you're here you can blow in the bag!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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