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We all need pivots to win..yes or not? 13 replies

The System (Irony included) 1,175 replies

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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #10,841
  • Nov 13, 2009 3:38am Nov 13, 2009 3:38am
stopped out at 4885
  • #10,842
  • Nov 13, 2009 3:40am Nov 13, 2009 3:40am
Cld you have a look at this for me pls

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  • #10,843
  • Nov 13, 2009 3:48am Nov 13, 2009 3:48am
Quoting iak
Cld you have a look at this for me pls

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Yes it is, IMHO. I am short at 82 here.
  • #10,844
  • Nov 13, 2009 3:50am Nov 13, 2009 3:50am
Quoting elizo
Yes it is, IMHO. I am short at 82 here.
Thankyou, yes i am short also now
  • #10,845
  • Nov 13, 2009 3:57am Nov 13, 2009 3:57am
shld i stay or shld i go now.....
if i stay there cld be trouble......
if i dont it cld be double........ lol
  • #10,846
  • Nov 13, 2009 4:16am Nov 13, 2009 4:16am
Hello all,

Am i right in saying that the trade short on the fcr2 at 84,should be closed playing G+,seeing that price reversed beyond the level line?

I am now short on 123s at 1.4876 playing #2

Thanks
  • #10,847
  • Nov 13, 2009 4:23am Nov 13, 2009 4:23am
Quoting granddesigns
Hello all,

Am i right in saying that the trade short on the fcr2 at 84,should be closed playing G+,seeing that price reversed beyond the level line?

I am now short on 123s at 1.4876 playing #2

Thanks
rather than closing straight away see how price behaves around the fcr line. i stayed in this trade as price didnt seem to have much momentum upwards once it got to the line. finger was on the eject button ready though! fx says to give it about 15 pip room to breath unless price shoots up hard and fast. hope this helps
  • #10,848
  • Nov 13, 2009 4:28am Nov 13, 2009 4:28am
Quoting iak
rather than closing straight away see how price behaves around the fcr line. i stayed in this trade as price didnt seem to have much momentum upwards once it got to the line. finger was on the eject button ready though! fx says to give it about 15 pip room to breath unless price shoots up hard and fast. hope this helps
Thanks iak,

But i'm not sure you're correct about 15 pips room on a G+ , that should be max loss at anytime i believe?

  • #10,849
  • Nov 13, 2009 4:31am Nov 13, 2009 4:31am
Quoting tghfbt8
Feb,

Which futures do you look when you trade EURUSD? Full EC or mini ZE?

Thanks,

/t
Full EC....All the way...
Peace
  • #10,850
  • Nov 13, 2009 4:35am Nov 13, 2009 4:35am
Quoting granddesigns
Thanks iak,

But i'm not sure you're correct about 15 pips room on a G+ , that should be max loss at anytime i believe?

Im finding im not overly correct on a lot of things!!!! lol, which is why i am posting more lately so that people can pick me up on things. With G+ trades i was finding that i was closing as soon as a candle closed inside line only to then watch the trade resume down again. so i asked fx advice and he said something along the lines of what i said earlier. best to put question to him though i guess.
  • #10,851
  • Nov 13, 2009 4:38am Nov 13, 2009 4:38am
Quoting tghfbt8
Is this "official"?
Are GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCHF welcome here
Well, I don't have any problems. Just that EUR/USD is now "standardized" by our dear family. But you can trade whatever you feel comfortable with brother.

Apart from E/U I believe AUD/USD and USD/CAD are great instruments to trade.
Peace
  • #10,852
  • Nov 13, 2009 4:40am Nov 13, 2009 4:40am
If you can use your PM, Please use SKYPE - leave me a message @ FEB2865

thanks...
Peace
  • #10,853
  • Edited 5:16am Nov 13, 2009 5:05am | Edited 5:16am
Quoting granddesigns
Thanks iak,

But i'm not sure you're correct about 15 pips room on a G+ , that should be max loss at anytime i believe?

Hi guys,
Let me see if I may add something useful for you about this subjet.

When you have a FCR2, 123D,... situation where you must use 2G+ as your defensive play, it is supossed first of all that you have had a nasty fakeout...

Talking about this particular setup @ 4884, price just spiked down to get us in, after that, an idesition candle wich didn't show too much speed in our favor or against us, and the third candle in a row was a small candle that, at least in my charts, only went 4 pips against without too much momentun as well, so at that very moment we should have our fingers ready on the panic buttom to bail out if the very next candle showed some bullish reaction, but obviously it wasn't the case here, so even playing 2G+ play, we should have stayed a little bit more into this deal.....

Apart from that, we had another last FCR @ 4889, that we could perfectly see it as a FCR1 , so #2 play on the table in case a fake.
As a matter of a fact, price just reacted perfectly to this line (level) that rejected it ...

I also got into this trade on the 4884 FCR due to this last one was only 3, 4 pips away, so it was safer to wait for the lowest to get in the trade.....

Another thing is the concerning about getting out and see price resuming the original move.....
Have in mind that one important part of 2G+ is to rentry if price does that, so no problem at all..... You have denfended yourself from a potential turn over of the price and a possible hard stop hitted, and you keep all your options open if this wasn't the case and price finally resumes the move.....

I can be perfectly wrong here, but this is my humble opinion about it.....

Anyway, Feb or Fx wil clarify this subjet better than me, for sure...
  • #10,854
  • Nov 13, 2009 5:06am Nov 13, 2009 5:06am
Hi all..my 2nd trade...only EU this time Fxacchiles...

I took the trade a few pips above the break of the fractal...any correction or suggestion? i still reading this thread up to page 200 now..Thanks in advance everyone...
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  • #10,855
  • Nov 13, 2009 6:04am Nov 13, 2009 6:04am
Quoting jplo
Hi guys,
Let me see if I may add something useful for you about this subjet.

When you have a FCR2, 123D,... situation where you must use 2G+ as your defensive play, it is supossed first of all that you have had a nasty fakeout...

Talking about this particular setup @ 4884, price just spiked down to get us in, after that, an idesition candle wich didn't show too much speed in our favor or against us, and the third candle in a row was a small candle that, at least in my charts, only went 4 pips against without too much momentun as well, so at...

Thanks Jplo, very helpfull
  • #10,856
  • Nov 13, 2009 6:05am Nov 13, 2009 6:05am
Quoting jplo
Hi guys,
Let me see if I may add something useful for you about this subjet.

When you have a FCR2, 123D,... situation where you must use 2G+ as your defensive play, it is supossed first of all that you have had a nasty fakeout...

Talking about this particular setup @ 4884, price just spiked down to get us in, after that, an idesition candle wich didn't show too much speed in our favor or against us, and the third candle in a row was a small candle that, at least in my charts, only went 4 pips against without too much momentun as well, so...
Thanks for your explanation JPLO
  • #10,857
  • Nov 13, 2009 6:29am Nov 13, 2009 6:29am
short: 1.48765
  • #10,858
  • Nov 13, 2009 6:48am Nov 13, 2009 6:48am
Quoting feb2865
As you invited anyone to contribute,

I am reading over and over and I perceive that your problem is what to do when the market goes in a range while you in a trade.

A true cold hard fact is that ALL markets goes in a range due lack of volume. The disadvantage spot trades has is no way to quantify volume. My opinion, screw the volume, will only make your trade on your toes.

In my experience....all the time...the market is up for grabs when it gets on a range. In that particular graphic you posted, assuming you bagged 30 pips already, and now...
Hey Feb,

Thanks for your reply. Maybe you have a second or two to look at my further questions/replies ? I put your points in italics.

As you invited anyone to contribute,

No problems, thanks for your reply I appreciate it.

I am reading over and over and I perceive that your problem is what to do when the market goes in a range while you in a trade.

Indeed. I would qualify just one point though and this wasn’t supposed to be a trick or anything like that but the push I gave in the example was for 30 pips – reason being that originally it was said that 40 pips ‘can be considered as a runner’ and it is OK to bank etc… Now with 30 pips obviously this is less than the 40, and in fact the market is teasing us, because we are thinking ok, maybe she will push again or maybe I am going to leave pips on the table and my 30 will become 10 or something – there is some market tantalization going on.

A true cold hard fact is that ALL markets goes in a range due lack of volume. The disadvantage spot trades have is no way to quantify volume. My opinion, screw the volume, will only make your trade on your toes.

Ok this is an interesting point and I am sure that this is going to be another reply to bookmark for people from you. Can I ask another question relevant to why prices go into a range? I had always understood that prices go into range as the buyers and sellers agree on current prices, there is no one party who is unhappy to pay – buy or sell – at the price that is currently available. Is the resulting decrease in volume then a by product of the ranging price or the original reason for it?

Maybe an analogy from outside the market might work for us here – take the cash for clunkers thing they have recently been doing world wide – you get some cash for your old banger and then walk off with a new car – in simple terms they been knocking out cars at much below normal prices, with government sponsored incentives. What happened? Many people stepped up to the plate and took the deal, I did it myself. Volume increased because the deal was considered good and everyone got happy- for a time at least. In this case the volume at the old prices trickled off to very low historical levels but increased dramatically at the new ones.

For me the reason in this case then that the volume trickled to below average was that prices were considered very unattractive and to bring the buyers back in again price had to fall. So volume - if you could quantify it – could help in determining the end of the range – vol gets so low – by implication the market will have to adjust price wise in order to find good two way business.

In my experience....all the time...the market is up for grabs when it gets on a range.

Ok this is an interesting point as well – just to clarify and ensure I understand you correctly you mean that it can go either way – price could be pushed sufficiently by larger enough players to draw in and create follow thru from the rest of the players ?


In that particular graphic you posted, assuming you bagged 30 pips already, and now with the fact that you know anything could happen on a range.....what would you do?

1) A B/E trade? Of course you're not gonna let that winner turn into a loser...

Agreed; I have to say that until now I have let trades run 15 to 20 pips and come right back down at me and taken BE – bit I would not accept 30.

2)Close the trade, take the bounty and look for a re-entry??


If you chose # 1 is not a big deal. You play defense and that's completely valid. There will be another bus somewhere down the road.

OK I find giving 30 back quite a bit though as I said above.

#2 is a bit tricky. See, as we already established that the market is up for grabs, anything goes. So, here's the deal.

a) you re-entry at the same direction as you were - but....what if is a fakeout?....could be the end of the move - some sharks faking out to get new fresh meat. A very common pattern.


Yes this is exactly my point for holding – you say fakeout pips to the upside if and when they push it higher which as you said happens very often.

b) you re-entry in a new direction possible fcr and everything...oh yeah that's cool....but what if is just a hiccup form the original move???? Could be stops getting hit (possible sharks involvement...yeah baby!)

Agreed again this is the original dilemma – reason why I wanted to give plenty of room to allow for possible fakeout downside – keep out of the heat and as you say let the market show its real hand.

This is what I do......always do in a case like this (yes my personal biased view and action)

I bail out brother......30 pips in my back are goood....yes.

OK I am noting this – it will be a newer style for me as I have been holding on for grim death previously but I will put it into action – ladies and gentleman the ‘Demi Pauline’ trade has landed = 30 pip banking on arriving at range.

Whatever the market do next, I 'll sit on my hands until I see a clear cut, quantifiable move. Then I play accordingly....there's no rush I already bagged 30 pips. I have the upper hand.

If I can quantify the move, I could get on a trade but there's something I do...always do...



I cut my load. Yes baby, I already have some $$$ in my pocket. Risking the same load is a big mistake...as I stated, I don't know what's next....not even if I could quantify a move , I could get on a a bull/bear trap( yes sharks induced traps). Many times I cut my load in half...but you can go as high as 3/4 and will be fine.



Ok again this is a very important point then, your cutting the risk as you know the likelihood of fakes and trouble ahead increases because price is in the range and to get out of it will take more than one go ?


My mentor told me many times "you're not a trader but a capital preservationist"

Yep I have also been told ‘If you don’t have any money left over you can’t go back to the table the next day” a logical result of ignoring your mentors quote.

Having complete control on my load plus having some $$$ on my side are big winners on a psychological level. Instead of chasing the market (like many traders do) I'll wait patiently for the swing.

OK – in practical terms does this mean that you are going to wait for the eventual breakout either way - a pull pack and continuation in order to form that swing – or I am misunderstanding?

I suggest don't dwell into market signals. Instead, read their intentions. At the beginning of this thread, on my first chart posted, I stressed many times the importance of quantifying the initial move - impulse.

Yep OK

Evidently, this initial swing is coming from a period of consolidation. Somebody is taking one side of the market...sometimes in anger. This is where you want to be.

In the 2nd graph, the moves within the range are irrelevant. I can't read the market that way. I need a swing...a reasonable one.

Yes this was my point – it is very difficult to decide or determine what is an FCR what isn’t and what the real formations are there.

A range really lies in the eyes of the beholder. Lack of interest, traders on hold to let the stops go, I mean.....I can make you a huge list. But there's no volume = light trading. That's for sure.

Sometimes I hold in ranges. It all depends. Pretty much all comes down on how much I have bagged already.

OK sincere thanks for your replies – sorry to have been a bit long with my questions, but as we said maybe everyone will find something of use. I will certainly start to close all or 50% where I can, if I detect that a range is forming

Cheers
Survive and Preserve
  • #10,859
  • Nov 13, 2009 6:55am Nov 13, 2009 6:55am
Quoting alex2412
Hi all..my 2nd trade...only EU this time Fxacchiles...

I took the trade a few pips above the break of the fractal...any correction or suggestion? i still reading this thread up to page 200 now..Thanks in advance everyone...

Alex - in my opinion the best explanations of Fractals (FCR's) are FxAchilles's posts 3420, 3440, 3444, and 3448 (the best chart illustration of all). Read the relevant posts between them too. This is will help you answer your own question here.
$urvive, Pre$erve & RESPECT THE TEACHER
  • #10,860
  • Nov 13, 2009 6:57am Nov 13, 2009 6:57am
Quoting feb2865
As you invited anyone to contribute,

I am reading over and over and I perceive that your problem is what to do when the market goes in a range while you in a trade.

A true cold hard fact is that ALL markets goes in a range due lack of volume. The disadvantage spot trades has is no way to quantify volume. My opinion, screw the volume, will only make your trade on your toes.

In my experience....all the time...the market is up for grabs when it gets on a range. In that particular graphic you posted, assuming you bagged 30 pips already, and now...
Dear Feb!

I have a question about swings...

I see, that swings on EUR/USD are now not so strong as like for exemple in summer or spring... From spring of year 2009 I start trade with your great approach, and after some time I made some resultats. But now (autumn 2009) EUR's swings are more weaker and smaller. At least my bottomline talks me about this. I can be wrong, but I think this period now is more for bracketbreakout trading. Like Fxahilies and other people here do. Or I totally wrong and can't see swings more???? Please, correct me, if I wrong...

I still trade with the very first approach, from site 1 of this thread. So, for placing the trade I need to see initial swing. Therefore I trade now GBP/USD and EUR/JPY. Sometimes I try DOW and OIL, but still demo this two.


Thank you very much for your help to us!!!!!!

Helen and I wish You very good health, and much years of succesful happy life!!!!
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