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4% A Day Forever

  • #521
  • Nov 10, 2009 10:05pm Nov 10, 2009 10:05pm
Quoting magnumfreak
My biggest concern would be how bad are the stops going to kill you? So, for example, if your stop is around 20 pips, you need to be right 4 times for every 1 wrong just to get back to break even.

Just my 2 cents. If it works for you, by all means pip away!
98 out of 100 I am stopping out manually. Always have an out of range sl in place, typically 10 pips. I need the hard sl there in case I get a chance to catch trending PA & then graphically move sl to BE+ - & also emergency sl to do its thing in a hardware glitch or power outage - I had one hit in a blackout last week. Small targets are fine but they can be too small so I am monitoring win/loss ratio per size and number always.

Discipline has been the biggest bugbear for me but by Jove I think I might be on the right track.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #522
  • Edited 3:00pm Nov 11, 2009 2:48pm | Edited 3:00pm
Shorted E/U from 1.5040 last night and closed at 1.4970 when I got up this morning. I have shorted from 1.50 a couple times this week. Strong move up last night to 1.5045 seemed like a Big Dog pump/dump play. Shorting off the perceived top is lots of fun but it's still a Bull's market and some of those are bound to get slapped down. Tried to swing short again from 1.4955 & that mistake cost me 15 pips. I am trying to be more of a trend trader & will probably go long a swing trade from 1.4950 handle if it gets there. Mixing swing trades with scalps is doable but it requires focus because there are some different considerations involved. At one time I considered having a separate account just for scalping & I am not sure that is not a bad idea but its moot until I claw my way back from the hole I put in my account. I'm getting there - up about 8% so far this week.

Right now, scalping long from around 1.4970. I have gotten into the habit of checking into the last hour or so of the NY session - usually around 1200-1300 my time, to try to catch the NY "3 o'clock fade" - frequently some good movement then.

Newstrade today may be the AUD employment news later this afternoon. I will be watching and will catch some small part of any juicy moves.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #523
  • Edited 7:03pm Nov 11, 2009 6:52pm | Edited 7:03pm
The AUD employment news was a good one to tune in to. Their estimates have been quite wrong and that means good moves. I scalped a 5 pip long after the announcement on both the A/U and the E/U and scalped a 5-pip short on the E/U retrace, which coulda shoulda woulda been 10 pips at least....

The E/U move up was about 25 pips and the A/U news move up was over 50 pips! Live and learn, need to stay conservative playing the news volatility but might have asked for a bit more on those.

Please, sir, can I have some more....?

Gap up will probably hold up there above 1.5000 and we will range between 1.50 and 1.505 again.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #524
  • Nov 11, 2009 7:36pm Nov 11, 2009 7:36pm
Quoting odt101
Ok, I will keep trying. Thanks a lot.
Right now (currently 1730 PST) is good workable ranging PA in E/U. There's about a 12-15 pip range in the PA running sideways just above 1.5000.

This is looking like a bull flag, as well - so I am scalping only long in hopes of catching a runner north. 3.5 pip winners have been easy to get.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #525
  • Nov 11, 2009 7:54pm Nov 11, 2009 7:54pm
Quote
Right now (currently 1730 PST) is good workable ranging PA in E/U. There's about a 12-15 pip range in the PA running sideways just above 1.5000.

This is looking like a bull flag, as well - so I am scalping only long in hopes of catching a runner north. 3.5 pip winners have been easy to get.

Great going.

I have just tried scalping in e/u..but closed the positions at par as i get stressed out with scalping..

i also think it is currently range bound above 1.50000 waiting for next direction.
  • #526
  • Nov 11, 2009 8:01pm Nov 11, 2009 8:01pm
Quoting kingfisher
Great going.

I have just tried scalping in e/u..but closed the positions at par as i get stressed out with scalping..

i also think it is currently range bound above 1.50000 waiting for next direction.
It takes patience to scalp this ranging PA and one must scale the profit targets relative to the range. In the last 45 minutes I netted 9 pips. Not much, but every pip counts. I was scalping only long as I thought the flag might break out north but now I'm not so sure. If I get another long entry setup from 1.5004 or so I might set it up and forget it - 5 pip sl & 10-15 pip tp.

But I am usually only good for an hour of this at this time of day and I'm about to hit that wall.

Hell it could do this 10-15 pip range for another 3 hours....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #527
  • Nov 11, 2009 8:20pm Nov 11, 2009 8:20pm
Uh-oh. I think I might be turning into a newstrade junkie.

Hey man, yo, dude, when's the next news?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #528
  • Nov 11, 2009 8:28pm Nov 11, 2009 8:28pm
Quote
It takes patience to scalp this ranging PA and one must scale the profit targets relative to the range. In the last 45 minutes I netted 9 pips. Not much, but every pip counts. I was scalping only long as I thought the flag might break out north but now I'm not so sure. If I get another long entry setup from 1.5004 or so I might set it up and forget it - 5 pip sl & 10-15 pip tp.

But I am usually only good for an hour of this at this time of day and I'm about to hit that wall.

Hell it could do this 10-15 pip range for another 3 hours....

Looks like it is changing direction on 15 M charts.

Good pips you have earned through scalping.
  • #529
  • Nov 11, 2009 8:33pm Nov 11, 2009 8:33pm
Quoting kingfisher
Looks like it is changing direction on 15 M charts.

Good pips you have earned through scalping.
Yeah, I thought we might see a break north but it's slipping the other way.
The night is young, though.

Good Luck to you!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #530
  • Nov 11, 2009 10:52pm Nov 11, 2009 10:52pm
I didn't tradetoday. I will try tomorrow.

Fool, do you use the same size when you scalp as you swing trade?

I like to focus to scalp all the time so I can use high leveage. I think swing trade or news trade may require diffenet risk management, so you may have to use smaller size there.

But it may not be doable. One may have to use different strategy in different markets. I will try though.
  • #531
  • Nov 12, 2009 2:18am Nov 12, 2009 2:18am
Here are Frankfurt session scalps. Good for 20 pips exactly in 1 hour exactly.

I saw that Frankie would reverse the uptrend coming before the FO and I decided to fade it. Got in about 5 pips below the top. This whiole Frankfurt session move was about 50 pips down. So if I had held my entry from the get-go I would have got 50 instead of 20 pips.

True, but would I have held through the consol around the DP? Well, I never think this way, actually. Scalping (ideally) means you are being selective re: entry/exit to catch the higher probability moves. You can't get every pip the market gives up and its useless to cry over the ones you missed.

Assessing how I scalped this session, I did that well in places and in others not. I had default tp set too small and the two places where the default was hit should have yielded much more - should have had 5-pips at least and really shoulda tried to move the tp out, move sl to break even. Coulda shoulda woulda. Good news, though - there were no losers and I am $100 richer.

This 20 pips/hr for the Frankfort session is better than average. Was trading on M1 with entries/exits assessed against the 10s chart....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FOLO11-11-09.png Size: 96 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #532
  • Nov 12, 2009 2:32am Nov 12, 2009 2:32am
Quoting odt101
Fool, do you use the same size when you scalp as you swing trade?

I like to focus to scalp all the time so I can use high leveage. I think swing trade or news trade may require diffenet risk management, so you may have to use smaller size there.

But it may not be doable. One may have to use different strategy in different markets. I will try though.
Right now, I am shooting 1/2 lots all the time.

That is not the plan long-term, though. In the past, I have made the mistake of not scaling up my trade size as my account has grown. On scalps, I am ready to move up and will probably do so to 0.6 lots and then adjust by 0.1-lots for every $500 added to the account.

You are right, a major advantage of scalping SHOULD be that you have very high probability of success with these small profit targets and so should you have the confidence to trade large. If you are drawing the line at 2-pip sl or lets say even 5-pip sl then for example 5-pips @ $10/pip = $50 is 1% of a $5,000 account so the general rule of thumb I have is to trade 1-lot for every $5,000 in the account.

Swing trades and news trades are different (typically) given larger sl requirements, higher risk. An exception is break-out trades where you have very high R:R potential. I will post screenshots of the latter as I trade them.

So, now its 0830 GMT and I am waiting for news, out in 30 minutes. I'd like to scalp around the scheduled volatility but we will see how it goes.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #533
  • Nov 12, 2009 4:18am Nov 12, 2009 4:18am
Euro IP number was red - but seemed like at leaked 5 minutes b4 the announcement, as there was a 10-12 pip jump down om 3 m1 candles - then about 20 pips up after the announcement. It wasn't real strong move up, took about 10 minutes to get those 20 pips up & I scalped all of 3 pips.

Live & learn...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #534
  • Nov 12, 2009 12:25pm Nov 12, 2009 12:25pm
Thanks Fool for your clear 1m trading chart. It does give me a much better idea on how you are doing this.

Today I was much more patient and got some good result: +25pips. I made 34 trades within 3 hours. I got 68% win with average 2.96. My average loss is a little bit high though, -3.89pips.

Be more patient indeed increased my hit rates, though I also missed many chances. But I believe it worths the waiting.

However, I still have the problem to judge when should be the time to bail out the bad trades. I had 3 times moved my sl to 12 ~14, two times I got back to pisitive, but one trade I got stoped out by 13pips. Maybe today I am just a little lucky or had good overall judgement about the PA.

But this bothers me. This kind of large potential drawdowns could effect trading executions. It is better to limit all the losses to less than 5pips.
  • #535
  • Nov 12, 2009 1:09pm Nov 12, 2009 1:09pm
Quoting odt101
However, I still have the problem to judge when should be the time to bail out the bad trades. I had 3 times moved my sl to 12 ~14, two times I got back to pisitive, but one trade I got stoped out by 13pips. Maybe today I am just a little lucky or had good overall judgement about the PA.

But this bothers me. This kind of large potential drawdowns could effect trading executions. It is better to limit all the losses to less than 5pips.
You can see from my last screenshot that I had a couple places where the drawdown on a scalp was 5-6 pips. That FO session was actually a challenging one and at times PA was moving pretty fast. If I had killed a couple trades at 5 pips, hard to say, but I would have netted less pips, maybe 10 instead of 20 - who knows. But I really felt like the market was capped and that we were going down.

In hindsight (always 20/20, right?) I should have let one of those short scalps run. Run and run down to .4850 - about where I see price right now.

When I first started trading this way, I did not try to hit such small targets. Also, I would often (with the trend only) divide my entry into two trades. One I would close for a pretty small target - whatever PA was giving me quickly - but the other I would try to let run. That worked out less than half the time but sometimes the runners became 50-100 pip winners.

I am going to have to revisit that approach. For the last month or two I have really been concentrating on a few things - trying to curb my bad habits of letting losers run/adding to losing trades primarily - and I am on top of those now.

I need to really start trying to up the yield from my trading. Greed is good - just don't let it make you do stupid things.

Your results sound promising. I hope you are feeling good about your trading and making some money.

Best regards,

Rich
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #536
  • Nov 12, 2009 1:14pm Nov 12, 2009 1:14pm
Well I slept through the unemployment news at 0530 but the chart says it was a non-event.

Does anyone that tunes in here trade the news? If so, what's your approach to doing so?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #537
  • Nov 12, 2009 1:32pm Nov 12, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting The Fool
Well I slept through the unemployment news at 0530 but the chart says it was a non-event.

Does anyone that tunes in here trade the news? If so, what's your approach to doing so?

Not since FXCM dropped there Guaranteed SL's, then it was pick a direction, tight SL and either get SL'd or make 100pips

The sort of twitch game like trading your doing, jump on the momentum just after the news and well trade normally for you, it's too quick for me though.

Never ever read the news, it's pretty much irrelevant to what'll happen after it.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #538
  • Nov 12, 2009 1:58pm Nov 12, 2009 1:58pm
Quoting Turveyd
Not since FXCM dropped there Guaranteed SL's, then it was pick a direction, tight SL and either get SL'd or make 100pips

The sort of twitch game like trading your doing, jump on the momentum just after the news and well trade normally for you, it's too quick for me though.

Never ever read the news, it's pretty much irrelevant to what'll happen after it.
Hey buddy,

The way I'm in the news trade is something I can live with, for now. With a full-size trade I will normally just try to trade the aftermath - wait for the Oanda spread to come back down towards 1-2 pips and then scalp in the remaining volatility. Monitor PA direction on the 10s chart and trade with it, tight sl. That works well usually so long as I am shooting for a small target. I am keeping a notebook of all the news events and how they have affected PA and after a year or two that will be a nice resource. Couple days ago I scalped after the Aussie employment news and only went for 5 pips/trade but 15 would have been easy. Better safe than sorry, I guess.

If I want to have a trade on during the news that's ok, too, but I will do that with a smaller trade, still tight sl. I have not had a sl slipped yet but don't want to know what that is like.

Trading the aftermath is what I will probably normally do. I'm still hurting from a few weeks ago when I gambled on the GB GDP news and lost ~15% of my account in 10 seconds. It took a couple weeks to make that up....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #539
  • Nov 12, 2009 2:28pm Nov 12, 2009 2:28pm
Quoting The Fool
Hey buddy,

The way I'm in the news trade is something I can live with, for now. With a full-size trade I will normally just try to trade the aftermath - wait for the Oanda spread to come back down towards 1-2 pips and then scalp in the remaining volatility. Monitor PA direction on the 10s chart and trade with it, tight sl. That works well usually so long as I am shooting for a small target. I am keeping a notebook of all the news events and how they have affected PA and after a year or two that will be a nice resource. Couple days ago I scalped...

SL wise and going way past, market isn't as bad as it used to be where 100pips from a new result in either direction would happen, and you'd be SL'd at the -100 number, ofcourse 50/50 so as long as your lucky first time and no unlucky sorted

I wait for the market to settle down and pick a direction personally, but I'm not a scalper.

15% in 10seconds NASTY.

Another good time to trade is, UK Open, US Open and UK / Euro Close generally get big moves right after them.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #540
  • Edited 3:05am Nov 13, 2009 1:25am | Edited 3:05am
The German GDP was red and I was only going to trade the backside of it if it was green, since I felt, going in the FO, that the market was pointing up - I thought a red number would cancel out and so be a non-event. It pretty much was. PA continued slowly up and now has retraced 10p as I write at 0720GMT.

We will see if the next EZ news does any better.

Later: French GDP data was leaked about 20-30 min. before scheduled announcement. Red. The French NF Payroll came out on schedule, green. No immediate affect, market sideways in a <10 pip range.

More Later: CHF PPI hit on schedule at 0815GMT, red number, there was a 5pip move down then some volatile upside for 6-8 pips. Up & down there for a few minutes after the announcement & I caught a 4 pip scalp long. Mostly upside after this red number in the first 5 minutes afterwards....and then 20 min. later up 15 pips....

0900GMT: The Italian GDP news. Another red number and PA goes up. I guess you can print red EZ numbers all night and the E/U will go up if the S&P futures are green - which is the case tonight.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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