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  • #7,541
  • Edited 8:48pm Nov 11, 2009 8:37pm | Edited 8:48pm
Quoting strat
Just trying to find out whether you are a “top” or “bottom” guy!...
Very much like what I said. Except I did not see Alexandra's post. I remember some trader saying, "We get paid for waiting".. which is what I concluded:Wait and see what PA does, up or down. Kind of like life, the key is not being a top or bottom guy, it's what you do with either that counts.
  • #7,542
  • Nov 11, 2009 9:01pm Nov 11, 2009 9:01pm
Quoting mstandifer
If I enter any of these I'll post my plan. Too much typing right now and I don't want to give away anything for free...right
I don't see too many live trade posts here probably because this is a Q&A type thread but I need to post my live trades for accountability's sake. I believe in showing my trades either before I make them or as I make them, no way to lie about getting in a trade after the fact just to make myself look good and thus lying to myself. I'm here to learn and this is how I need to do it.

I'm hanging it out for all to see before hand and we can all hopefully learn from my successes and failures...here we go.

These were my calls as posted yesterday in blue and progress in red.

AUDCHF - 3/4 M and not wanting to go past .9400 but at .9425 I'm in.
AUDCHF monthly data is very incomplete but UP is a good summary.
AUDCHF weekly data not much better but UP and nearing all time high on my data.
AUDCHF daily 20 above 50 for a long time. Price for past several days bounced off resistance and today hit .9425.

PLAN: Because we're near an all time high this might want to swing south again so the lot purchase will be scaled. Purchases 1 lot at .9425, SL below last swing low at .9160. Will purchase lot 2 if this drops below .9390 at whatever the 20 is at that time. Will purchase lot 3 if lot 2 gets bought but at the next confirmed swing low. SL all at .9160. TP if single lot will be according to DR Joe since this is going into new territory and no more resistance. If multiple lots then TP 1 at 100 pips, TP 2 and 300 pips, TP 3 left to run Dr. Joe


AUDUSD - Looking for a close above .9325
Maybe today

CHFJPY - In it.
Still in it from 88.59

EURAUD - Watching today's close for PA for a quick ATM down to 1.6000
BLAST!!! Was on the phone with Pop and freakin missed it. Oh well...it didn't quite make it to 1.6000 anyway, saved me some money and grief.

EURCAD - Watching PA at 1.5700 to show which direction. Good bound range but will be a day or 2 on this one before can enter.
New candle below 1.5700 will play the confirmed failed retest.

EURGBP - At current DSRI and watching today and tomorrow to show the way.
Calling this one off...between the 20 and 50

EURJPY - Could have done same as CHFJPY up to 135.83. Out for now.
Already playing CHFJPY...not going to double dip.

EURUSD - Watching the M.
Still watching

GBPCAD - Watching the M and today's and tomorrow's action.
BLAST!!! IBFX has such low liquidity it doesn't allow trades at certain times. This one is off my charts for good.

GBPCHF - Could be a decent counter trend trade up to 1.7568 with an entry if this swing becomes a confirmed swing low but trapped between the worker and boss. Not sure about this one so will stay out.
Calling this one off. At current DSRI and between the 20 and 50 now.

GBPUSD - A close today above 1.6600 and DSRI and I could probably be in with a tight SL, but to play it safe I'll wait for a confirmed swing...
Below current DSRI and below 1.6600. Will watch this one...could go either way.

NZDJPY - Close above 67.00 and a confirmed swing high and I'm long to 69.49
Not yet.

USDCAD - Should have gone short at yesterday's close down to 1.0300 so I'm in now anyway.
Did a late sell at 1.0487 and holding for 1.0300.

USDCHF - Watching for PA around 1.0015. Might be a few days on this one.
Not there yet.


My apologies in advance for not posting my detailed plan for each one but I've been unable to be in front of the screen today to do that. Rest assured, I have that detailed plan for each one. I'll post that part as I have time...again...don't want to give it away for free

If you want charts I'll post them.
-m
  • #7,543
  • Nov 11, 2009 9:17pm Nov 11, 2009 9:17pm
Quoting mstandifer
I don't see too many live trade posts here probably because this is a Q&A type thread but I need to post my live trades for accountability's sake....
Just an FYI its not an all time high it's just a lack of data on your feed.
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  • #7,544
  • Nov 11, 2009 9:25pm Nov 11, 2009 9:25pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
Just an FYI its not an all time high it's just a lack of data on your feed.
Well hell. I'm in it so let's see how the plan plays out. I'll use my FXPro demo to look at that chart. Thanks for pointing that out brother, I owe you a beer.
  • #7,545
  • Nov 11, 2009 9:32pm Nov 11, 2009 9:32pm
Quoting mstandifer
Well hell. I'm in it so let's see how the plan plays out. I'll use my FXPro demo to look at that chart. Thanks for pointing that out brother, I owe you a beer.
Haha no problem.

I use IBFX for my live account as well but the data is crap so i just use it to execute orders and use FXpro for my charting.
  • #7,546
  • Nov 11, 2009 10:36pm Nov 11, 2009 10:36pm
Strat, I'm still around. Have not dropped out. For the last few weeks I was going back and looking for shooting stars and hammers and PASR on past charts. With some days on the thread getting 70-80 posts I fell way behind. I'm caught up now. Nice to see more new traders joining. Even a few that want to argue. That's OK.

I appreciate your explanation today of the hammer on the Big Boss USDCAD chart. I'm understanding now that you have to wait for the Big Boss, then the Boss to show you that the trend has changed direction before anything else.

In other words, until there is a real confirmation on the larger timeframes that the trend has become bullish we would still be looking to go short on the worker and not assume the bearish trend has ended. Is that correct?

With your experience you may think everyone would get it, but even the basics aren't too obvious to a beginner like myself.

I said some time back, trying to guess (wrongly) when the trend has ended has been one of my biggest errors. But I'm learning to correct some of my trading weaknesses like that.

They are psychological errors too, because it's the fear of missing out on the beginning of the move, and the fear of increased risk of getting in after price has moved too far, etc. that make me want to pick these tops and bottoms. I need to be more patient and wait for the trend to make itself clear before looking for setups - and then trade with the trend. I also need to make myself believe that the trend will continue (possibly for a long time) until it has proven to have ended.

Like you said many times; learning the setups, entries, and exits are important but as you become better at these technical aspects of trading you realize the real challenge is dealing with what's up inside your head. Human aspects such as your belief system, unrealistic hope, unnecessary fear, irresponsible greed, and other weaknesses are the real factors that will determine success or failure.

Also, when you get the time, will you explain more about "seeing beyond the candles"?

Dave
  • #7,547
  • Nov 11, 2009 11:14pm Nov 11, 2009 11:14pm
Quoting strat
Apart from quoting the wrong Nicola post, WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

There is NOTHING from that Mark Douglas video to put in a spreadsheet.

Go back and read LOU'S post who did a far better summary of the video than I.

Memorise that summary and when you SEE the OPPORTUNITY act upon it in accordance with the summary.

That's all there is to it - its SIMPLE!

Excel spreadsheet! Pretty soon you will want one for tracking the stars!
Strat,

I’m afraid I was so caught up in trying to prepare for a future where, when I feel able to start to trade again, that I have put in place everything that I will need to remove any of the "me specific" inadequacies. I realise that my request for information was less than clear and if you feel it was inappropriate, I apologise.

If I have taken anything from your thread, it is that I have to aim for consistency. If I have learned anything from Mark Douglas, it is that the trade system is much less important than it is to take control of myself. Apparently, the greatest threat to my achieving consistency is me.
While reading through your thread I have come to the conclusion (I am only about one third of the way through it so perhaps incorrectly?) that you advocate an approach of preparing a trade based on identifying an opportunity; setting it up and essentially forgetting it with confidence that either it wins or it loses, but in certain knowledge that either are acceptable.

The arithmetic approach about which I was burbling relates to my dawning realisation that consistency (in my case) will need a memory aid for setting up the multi- various necessary parameters of a trade: the current price of the instrument to be traded; stop loss; take profits matching one’s reward/risk strategy; exit strategy targets for those who are not all in/all out; trailing stop method/value) and being able to integrate all of this with one’s Money management rules: Percentage of funds to be risked; appropriate position sizing and whatever else I may have forgotten.

The reason for the question is that I have a real memory problem that demands a more mechanical approach to setting up a trade. Several of the trades that I made prior to finding your thread failed because I had forgotten (or had not yet learned about) one or more of the parameters.

I believe that much of what I am searching for already exists, but have so far been unable to discover who has it or where it is sold. One of my searches did uncover the trade journal that I mentioned earlier, and while it does have some of the calculations built in (drawdown; win/loss ratio; and other stuff) it is all post-event. What I am looking for is an aid to set up a trade in such a way that I feel comfortable in simply letting the market decide where it will take me.

Sorry for the disturbance.

Regards,

Mike
  • #7,548
  • Edited 11:22pm Nov 11, 2009 11:21pm | Edited 11:22pm
Revising my entry plan for E/G. Need a close above 9080 to take a long position.
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  • #7,549
  • Nov 11, 2009 11:36pm Nov 11, 2009 11:36pm
Quoting mawbvw@hotma
Strat,

I’m afraid I was so caught up in trying to prepare for a future where, when I feel able to start to trade again, that I have put in place everything that I will need to remove any of the "me specific" inadequacies. I realise that my request for information was less than clear and if you feel it was inappropriate, I apologise.

[size=3][font=Calibri]If I have taken anything from your thread, it is that I have to aim for consistency. If I have learned anything from Mark Douglas, it is that the trade...
Good post Mike! It looks like your mind is in the right place, now you just need to follow it through.

About your trading journal, i have attached a pic of how i have set my journal up in Excel. It doesn't calculate things for you or any fancy stuff like that but it's simple and it seems to work.
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  • #7,550
  • Nov 12, 2009 12:59am Nov 12, 2009 12:59am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Good post Mike! It looks like your mind is in the right place, now you just need to follow it through.

About your trading journal, i have attached a pic of how i have set my journal up in Excel. It doesn't calculate things for you or any fancy stuff like that but it's simple and it seems to work.
Crudecraig,

Many thanks for your response and very generous gesture! I haven't found too many who are as prepared to share.

I purchased my Trade Journal on line, so it does contain many of the aids that I need, but as I mentioned in the post - they are entered by me after the event plus, because it is a commercial product, all of the calculation macros are protected and most of the spreadsheet locked down. Whereas what I need is to be able to enter the parameters prior to the event so that I can place the trade correctly.

I approached the vendor and while he has been relatively accommodating, my request would distract him from his current product set revision and his expansion into other trade plan areas (I also suspect I would have underwritten his development costs, which would be too rich for my blood).

Presently, the only thing I have in abundance, is time, so while the search still continues, I will re-learn Excel and attempt to develop my own 'home-grown' solution and the calculations that I need in a separate spreadsheet, similar to the one you showed me.

Thanks again for your help! I can’t express how much your gesture done to restore some of my faith in people.

Regards,

Mike
  • #7,551
  • Nov 12, 2009 3:57am Nov 12, 2009 3:57am
Hello Strat and all,

Regarding your USDCAD chart, this is my plan of action (better said plan of waiting...).

While the Hammer on BB is an early warning signal the BOSS trend is still down. My trend change signals are the high of your Monthly hammer and a bit earlier the last swing high of the BOSS (at 1.0865). As long as none of these highs are broken the BOSS trend is still down.

Going down on Worker the downtrend resumed off the 11.02 high and we have a confrmed LL (11.04) and LH (11.06).

The plan is to wait for bearish PA on Worker at the obvious resistance levels, 1.0645 (minor) and 1.0685 (major), and look to position short.
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,552
  • Nov 12, 2009 6:35am Nov 12, 2009 6:35am
Quoting soso
Hello Strat and all,

Regarding your USDCAD chart, this is my plan of action (better said plan of waiting...). .....................................................................
The plan is to wait for bearish PA on Worker at the obvious resistance levels, 1.0645 (minor) and 1.0685 (major), and look to position short.
Seems good to me. Worth waiting for as it would be a probable 400 pips all the way down to the major bottom S line. You will also have the MAs above you when you go for the trade and all the other signs are Down as you point out.

Good luck!
  • #7,553
  • Nov 12, 2009 7:56am Nov 12, 2009 7:56am
Quoting strat
So, the story is unfolding nicely.

The immediate DSRI demand line has been broken telling us that the buyers have lost momentum and are no longer prepared to support PRICE at the 1.4810 level.

The sellers are now in control UNTIL the ROOT DSRI demand line at 1.4625ish.

Pay attention closely and watch PRICE at this level as it will give us the Inside Track to the next Chapter.
Strat you said "The sellers are now in control UNTIL the ROOT DSRI demand line at 1.4625ish."

It hit 1.4626 on my charts, truly amazing.

Sorry I had to mention that.
  • #7,554
  • Nov 12, 2009 8:50am Nov 12, 2009 8:50am
Quoting soso
Hello Strat and all,

Regarding your USDCAD chart, this is my plan of action (better said plan of waiting...).

While the Hammer on BB is an early warning signal the BOSS trend is still down. My trend change signals are the high of your Monthly hammer and a bit earlier the last swing high of the BOSS (at 1.0865). As long as none of these highs are broken the BOSS trend is still down.

Going down on Worker the downtrend resumed off the 11.02 high and we have a confrmed LL (11.04) and LH (11.06).

The plan is to wait for bearish PA on Worker...
Hi soso,

I'm seeing it the same way. The 1.0650 area appears to be a good SR area, and is also near the fib 50 taken from 1.0868 to today's low of 1.0415 (so far.)

If price retraces back to the 1.0650 area and if that resistance holds and if there is PA indicating another swing down I'll go short there. That's a lot of "ifs" though. And I've learned from Strat to forget about what might happen and just look at what is happening now. For now, I wait.

Dave
  • #7,555
  • Nov 12, 2009 9:13am Nov 12, 2009 9:13am
Quoting mstandifer
These were my calls as posted yesterday in blue and progress in red.
I realize this isn't end of day but I have to post when I can fit it in. The past week has gotten busy at work. End of day reviews will still be made for actual trade decisions.

I'm going to keep score as well. I believe it will be of benefit to see if live trades are overall profitable (just wins/losses, no $$ or pips). Determined by overall position profitability on position close.

To Date:

Profitable Trades: 1

Unprofitable Trades: 0
AUDCAD – Will enter on next confirmed swing low if it stays above .9643 and TP at .9800 resistance.

AUDCHF - 3/4 M and not wanting to go past .9400 but at .9425 I'm in.
TP changed since my good man CrudeCraig pointed out my chart data was incomplete. TP at next resistance 1.0000.

AUDUSD - Looking for a close above .9325
Still watching

CHFJPY - In it.
Position Closed. 1 Lot in profit, 2 Lots BE (by one pip…you gotta be kidding me)

EURCAD - New candle below 1.5700 will play the confirmed failed retest.
Watching

EURUSD - Watching the M.
Out for now. See comments on USDCHF

GBPUSD - A close today above 1.6600 and DSRI and I could probably be in with a tight SL, but to play it safe I'll wait for a confirmed swing...
Below current DSRI and below 1.6600. Will watch this one...could go either way.

NZDJPY - Close above 67.00 and a confirmed swing high and I'm long to 69.49
Still watching.

USDCAD - Did a late sell at 1.0487 and holding for 1.0300.
Watching for a wobble on the way down to 1.0300.

USDCHF - Watching for PA around 1.0015. Might be a few days on this one.
Watching. I realize EURUSD is basically the same thing but for some reason USDCHF mentally feels more comfortable.
  • #7,556
  • Nov 12, 2009 9:30am Nov 12, 2009 9:30am
I have a two questions about the chart here.

First, do I have the DSRI line drawn correctly?

And secondly, in the inset you can see there is a BUOB directly above what I assume to be the DSRI. I'm just using this as an example because the bar has not closed yet, but say it had, would this be a setup because the BUOB occured at the DSRI and would you be looking to go long on a break of the top of the bar?

Thanks.

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  • #7,557
  • Nov 12, 2009 9:43am Nov 12, 2009 9:43am
Quoting PistolDave
I have a two questions about the chart here.

First, do I have the DSRI line drawn correctly?

And secondly, in the inset you can see there is a BUOB directly above what I assume to be the DSRI. I'm just using this as an example because the bar has not closed yet, but say it had, would this be a setup because the BUOB occured at the DSRI and would you be looking to go long on a break of the top of the bar?

Thanks.

Attachment

Hello Dave,

The correct way to draw DSRI lines is through closes. The easiest way to do it is by switching to line chart when drawing the line.

As far as going LONG, I for one wouldn't go long, it is clear that the DSRI was broken and now could be retested but it is not enough, BOSS is still in a downtrend.
BIG BOSS is hinting of a possible trend change but for now is only a hint.

Right now we have an unconfirmed HH (11.02) and an unconfirmed HL (11.12 - today). I wouldnt touch longs as long as price doesn't make a higher close above 11.02 high.

That's how I view it...
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,558
  • Nov 12, 2009 9:47am Nov 12, 2009 9:47am
Quoting Alexandra
Interesting resilience from USDJPY today - on a long term basis, that market is obviously stalled...for those inclined long, I think we have something to look at here. The ejection point is obvious, and the potential return is rich.

And, yes, it needs confirmation - but perhaps not so much as the proverbial hanging man if one is a purist. 90 looms quite large in that one, to continue the round numbers theme of the pre-Asian chart review.
Let’s take the discussion a step further to see if we can understand the map laid out before us.

At this time, buyers and sellers are respecting the support PRICE level at 89.25. Should some USD bearish news come out, we would expect a further drop to 88.25 at least but that’s in the realm of funnymetalism.

It does seem like the promoters of a bullish USD (the big boys) have abandoned this for the time being leaving the rest of us trapped between DSRI supply and resistance and the 89.25 support as shown by the descending triangle.

If you study USDJPY over the years you will see it is a Jekyll and Hyde character. It can go to sleep for weeks and months and then BANG, someone lights a squib under it’s bum, and it’s off to the moon!

For me, I need to see resolution of the DSRI supply and then beyond that, resolution of the 92.00 PRICE level.

The real key to this though, is waiting for the big boys to come out to play.
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,559
  • Nov 12, 2009 10:06am Nov 12, 2009 10:06am
Quoting soso
Hello Dave,

The correct way to draw DSRI lines is through closes. The easiest way to do it is by switching to line chart when drawing the line.

As far as going LONG, I for one wouldn't go long, it is clear that the DSRI was broken and now could be retested but it is not enough, BOSS is still in a downtrend.
BIG BOSS is hinting of a possible trend change but for now is only a hint.

Right now we have an unconfirmed HH (11.02) and an unconfirmed HL (11.12 - today). I wouldnt touch longs as long as price doesn't make a higher close above 11.02...
Thanks a lot, friend.

I just didn't know if the DSRI could be used the same way as any trendline or horizontal SR level for PASR. And I agree long is not the way to go right now unless you were trying for a quick ATM trade up to the 1.0650 SR area. Not good RR. Probably better off waiting for a short setup at that level.
  • #7,560
  • Nov 12, 2009 10:22am Nov 12, 2009 10:22am
Quoting CrudeCraig
I'am looking to go short after today's BEOB.

W/trend,fib retrace,closed below 20 on the worker, DSRI break, All the bosses are in agreement, 20 and 50 are touching on both boss and worker TF's.
I'am looking to go short after today's BEOB.

W/trend,fib retrace,closed below 20 on the worker, DSRI break, All the bosses are in agreement, 20 and 50 are touching on both boss and worker TF's.

Sorry, Craig, I didn’t see this as I had switched off after the Bonehead distraction.

You are probably in triple pips pain right now so let’s see where your analysis went wrong.

W/trend

Really?

I look at my Worker and I see HHs and HLs
My BOSS shows me a higher swing low
My BIG BOSS shows me a higher swing low with a Hammer

closed below 20 on the worker

Agreed BUT in the 20/50 trap!

DSRI break

Agreed on yours but on mine DSRI demand is at 1.6650

All the bosses are in agreement,

Agreed – but you saw yours agreeing to the wrong situation.

Hope this helps – if not get back to me.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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