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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #7,441
  • Nov 11, 2009 8:55am Nov 11, 2009 8:55am
Quoting Donadoney
I believe in this opportunity. Whether or not it is successful I believe it'll be a good trade once the daily candle closes positively, especially if its above the doji. Hope this is a good example of your lessons Strat otherwise its page 1 again for me.
It's OK as long as you know what's at 1.2660 and you know what to do there.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,442
  • Nov 11, 2009 9:08am Nov 11, 2009 9:08am
Quoting strat
It's OK as long as you know what's at 1.2660 and you know what to do there.
Quoting Donadoney
I believe in this opportunity. Whether or not it is successful I believe it'll be a good trade once the daily candle closes positively, especially if its above the doji. Hope this is a good example of your lessons Strat otherwise its page 1 again for me.
The reason I didn't put this in my list of trades wasn't because I didn't agree with the call, but because my chart shows poor reward for the risk.

My chart shows we are still behind and IB and breaking to the topside and a confirmed swing low would put me too close to 1.2660 for me. Just showing how chart differences can keep you out of a trade.
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  • #7,443
  • Nov 11, 2009 9:09am Nov 11, 2009 9:09am
Quoting Lou
Lots of bottoms....
Just trying to find out whether you are a “top” or “bottom” guy!

I’m afraid Alexandra let the cat out of the bag (again!).

I deliberately laced the post with “bottoms” to enlist the reactions of readers.

While it is putting in several “bottoms”, we don’t know if it is a bottom until we have a swing low followed by a swing high. Since the dominant trend is still down, we would look to sell a break, preferably a strong close with PA, below 0.9940 (my data).

The safest, lowest risk long entry is to wait for PRICE to make a higher swing low above the last swing low.

All that being said, we need to closely watch PA on EURUSD. If she decides to go on another Everest expedition then we have our answer on Swiss Cheese.

As of now, it’s the hardest game in town – WAITING!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,444
  • Nov 11, 2009 9:14am Nov 11, 2009 9:14am
Quoting strat
Just trying to find out whether you are a “top” or “bottom” guy!

I’m afraid Alexandra let the cat out of the bag (again!).

I deliberately laced the post with “bottoms” to enlist the reactions of readers.

While it is putting in several “bottoms”, we don’t know if it is a bottom until we have a swing low followed by a swing high. Since the dominant trend is still down, we would look to sell a break, preferably a strong close with PA, below 0.9940 (my data).

[font=Arial]The...
I know you did - I couldn't stand it any longer!
  • #7,445
  • Nov 11, 2009 9:17am Nov 11, 2009 9:17am
Quoting TheFutureAce
Hello,

I am living of this thread for past 2 weeks. My work is extremely busy these days...so going at the speed of tortoise right now. I am 31 yr old and came to know about the forex world 3 months back and I am still learning a lot.

I finished reading James16's price action and ppz posts. read Steve nisons candlestick book and now at Mr Strats thread.

I will keep reading the thread and post when i am have a firm grip of things. I wanted to introduce myself formally here to everybody.

Thanks,
Amar
a firm grip of things

Oh how I love a firm grip of things!

Take your time and thanks for your introduction.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,446
  • Nov 11, 2009 9:21am Nov 11, 2009 9:21am
Quoting hcristea
Hi Strat,
what is the feed you are using for your charts?
I use Science Diet Puppy Chow as it seems to produce less crap.

Oh, for the charts, sorry, I was thinking dogs.

I use FX Pro
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,447
  • Nov 11, 2009 9:26am Nov 11, 2009 9:26am
Quoting Grimweasel
Well, FWIW - I'd only trade long on usdchf once/if we have had a significant down TL break on strong momentum. I'd like to see any potential double bottom then tested and with a HL and a break above the SR level at 1.0250 AND the last swing high at 1.0344. Currently, all usdchf says to me is DOWN as it's not stopped going down yet? To do anything else here is surely trying to pick tops and bottoms (my old vice, that I still succumb to now and then)?

I've found that once I make a plan like this and WAIT then it ensures that I take only the best...
You're getting there, Danny boy - finally. I reckon Eddie Cochran would be proud of you!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,448
  • Nov 11, 2009 9:43am Nov 11, 2009 9:43am
Quoting elitejets
If you missed it ...
http://www.bloomberg.co.uk/apps/news...DqoEZ.mU&pos=4
Elitejets, Many Thanks for the video - great reinforcement of the book!

Do you, by any chance, happen to know if anyone has captured the arithmetic aspects of the underpinning methodology into a downloadable spread-sheet (for sale of otherwise)? I would really love to incorporate it into my (Excel) trade journal to make it a more "rule-based" approach. I believe that it may help balance my occasional (increasing) memory problems that seem to thwart some of my trades

Regards,

Mike
  • #7,449
  • Nov 11, 2009 9:43am Nov 11, 2009 9:43am
Quoting strat
I use FX Pro
I'm also with FXPro and I asked because the daily candles your charts do not look the same like on my charts anymore. Before they did. Probably because we are using different servers, I guess.

Quoting strat
I use Science Diet Puppy Chow as it seems to produce less crap.
You know, that could be a good marketing slogan
  • #7,450
  • Nov 11, 2009 9:51am Nov 11, 2009 9:51am
Quoting hcristea
I'm also with FXPro and I asked because the daily candles your charts do not look the same like on my charts anymore. Before they did. Probably because we are using different servers, I guess.
I have FXPro too and mine looked the same as Strat's until just recently. My posted charts are IBFX but here are both for you to compare.

Strat's
IBFX
FXPro
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  • #7,451
  • Nov 11, 2009 10:11am Nov 11, 2009 10:11am
Quoting Sinan
I really like the look of this trade at the moment.

Big Boss + Boss + Worker all working together.

Swing high + LH's & LL's

Strong resistance above with confluence @ worker 50 and TL.

Break out of the 50 + 20 sandwich. 20 now gives us a little resistance to a push back up.

The path below looks relatively clear of trees until 1.770 which is my first target.

Daily PA - a not so perfect SS...

We have also just finished a nice little period of consolidation
There goes your trendline, I hope you are in
  • #7,452
  • Nov 11, 2009 10:20am Nov 11, 2009 10:20am
Quoting mstandifer
I have FXPro too and mine looked the same as Strat's until just recently. My posted charts are IBFX but here are both for you to compare.

Strat's
IBFX
FXPro
Yep, my charts looks the same too. False Alarm!
I was comparing a strat's CADJPY with my chart, but instead i was looking at GBPJPY and i couldn't understand why they are different
  • #7,453
  • Nov 11, 2009 10:22am Nov 11, 2009 10:22am
Quoting Grimweasel
Looking at USDCAD there could be a good lower risk monthly trade if that hammer on the big boss is still to be believed. The worker may offer an entry back into that hammer. My only concern is that PA has retraced beyond 61% into that hammer. I think it is still the controlling bar on that pair tho - so this could, if activated, point to $ strength across the board?

Hang on - too much thinking. Grrr. Trade what u see
You are almost there, Danny boy.

The BIG BOSS is our highest time frame. We have a hammer on the BIG BOSS.

This hammer then is the King of PA for this pair. The Boss and Worker are controlled by this.

The BIG BOSS hammer is THE controlling candle. It has a range of 754 pips which is large enough for many a novice trader to blow his account.

In SIMPLE terms, the BOSS and Worker can move UP and DOWN 754 pips within this candle WITHOUT challenging BIG BOSS authority.

If we use the PA bar as a set up bar and enter our trades “x” pips above/below the set up bar, as I teach, then our trade is only “triggered” if Momentum is on our side OR, as per the Mark Douglas video, if others share our sentiment.

So, let’s use this as an exercise on PASR.

The BIG BOSS is a hammer, a price reversal bar and the controlling candle. It is at the end of a trend which has been running out of momentum for the last couple of months. However, on my data, the support of 1.0217 is not MAJOR support so is a concern.

The BOSS is being rejected by resistance and the 20.

The Worker, per my previous post, was already in its downtrend being rejected earlier from it’s resistance at 1.0820. We were given a “gift” as the 20 and 50 sat on top of each other and price shot through them.

Putting all this together, we see the BIG BOSS calling for an “end” to this downslide – note it is not an emphatic end, just a “call” for an end. This would have us thinking “long” IF the BOSS and Worker supported this and fell in to line. IF this was the case, we would be looking to go long “if” the Worker gave us PA above 1.0959, the high of the BIG BOSS hammer.

The action by the BOSS tells us she is still controlled by the dominant downtrend so we should “expect” the down move to continue to the end of the BIG BOSS hammer at 1.0205.

Knowledgeable PASR traders know to trade the Worker down to the end of the BIG BOSS hammer.

There is SO much more to this so watch it.
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,454
  • Nov 11, 2009 10:31am Nov 11, 2009 10:31am
Quoting soso
I'm on the other side guys, I have 0.901 strong Weekly SR and price is below it for a week already. Am short off 11.03 BEOB, still waiting for that fall....

Today the 0.901 resistance hold again and gave us a shooting star, true not at the end of a trend but at least it means strong rejection. I'll use it to tighten my stop above it. If price break through there's no reason to hold the trade to -1R.
Further to my post #7420 following yours, have you found a successful pain medication? If so, please advise us all!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,455
  • Nov 11, 2009 10:56am Nov 11, 2009 10:56am
Quoting strat
You are almost there, Danny boy....
Thanks Strat - I was on the right lines then. Taken time to really 'get' trend trading and not picking tops/bottoms. God knows why? Ego I guess? Naughty inner voice thinking he could outsmart the market.

I was once told by a 'seasoned' trader that these entries at the base of hammer or tips of stars often lowered the RR ratio but ONLY if there was a reversal candle set-up. You'd still be trading the worker NOT the Big Boss as he would only be activated above it's high. On usdcad I have a R level at 1.100 so I would wait until that is breached before any long. This is hypothetical of course, because she's still going down!

I was 'watching' a lower TF chart today on oil and I saw 'trapped traders' in action. It was so good to see it happen live. I was watching oil on the 1hr TF and at about 56mins into the hour we had a perfect Shooting Star. The Star then started to go shorter as traders tried to get an early entry into a poss down move. Then right at the last minute the 'S Star' turned into a bull candle and the market moved higher as all the 'trapped' traders who got in early were 'rinsed' out of the market. A top rinse job. The moral of the story here is whatever your TF you MUST wait for the candle to close, even right up to the last hour on the worker, last hour on the boss etc. There are traders out there who look for these candles, just-off formed (as with todays 58min candle) and then fade them to trap the guys who get in early. The trapped traders then have to go long to close out their position further adding to the move up.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #7,456
  • Nov 11, 2009 10:56am Nov 11, 2009 10:56am
Quoting strat
Knowledgeable PASR traders know to trade the Worker down to the end of the BIG BOSS hammer.

There is SO much more to this so watch it.
I apologize for all the posts recently but it's hard not to be enthusiastic when surrounded by so many good traders with quality posts.

The quoted post is not a good post because it gives you a trading plan for the chart (that would be just giving you the fish). It's a good post because Strat somehow manages to summarize almost the entire teachings of this thread in a single example. I take from this post specific 'how to' on determining entries (on any chart) and the why of it. How the trends relate to one another and how to utilize PA from higher time frames on the lower. I'll stop the dissertation here but there's lots more.

I've been banging my head on this information for about 5 weeks now and seeing this post is like being able to finally pedal my bike on a straight after climbing a 5 mile incline.

2 weeks ago, I doubt I would have taken that post for anything other than just another analysis. Don't make that mistake, that post is what you are reading this thread for...application of what you have been learning.

Good stuff...definitely good stuff.
-m
  • #7,457
  • Nov 11, 2009 11:08am Nov 11, 2009 11:08am
I'd be slightly cautious of any set-ups today as it's a Holiday in the US, CAD and France; we may see some low volume manipulative moves.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #7,458
  • Nov 11, 2009 11:12am Nov 11, 2009 11:12am
Quoting mstandifer
I apologize for all the posts recently but it's hard not to be enthusiastic when surrounded by so many good traders with quality posts.

The quoted post is not a good post because it gives you a trading plan for the chart (that would be just giving you the fish)....

An excellent post by Strat and an excellent return volley by mstandifer
Keep 'em coming folks!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #7,459
  • Nov 11, 2009 11:18am Nov 11, 2009 11:18am
I saw this hanging man on gbpusd right at the 6600 area and I knew price was going down... but i didnt take it.....

Am i correct?
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  • #7,460
  • Nov 11, 2009 11:20am Nov 11, 2009 11:20am
Quoting soso
Hello Strat & all,

Do you consider trades on a pair on which THE BOSS is trapped between 20 and 50 but on the Worker timeframe the price is well above/below the MAs? I was thinking that when THE BOSS has not decided then use what THE BIG BOSS is saying. If THE BIG BOSS is not decied either then stay out.

P.S. The EURGBP trade was obviously against bigger trend, I even noted that in my journal the day I put the entry order. I've put too much weight on that Weekly SR level and too little on THE BOSS trend. Licking my wounds now...

Cheers!
Do you consider trades on a pair on which THE BOSS is trapped between 20 and 50 but on the Worker timeframe the price is well above/below the MAs? I was thinking that when THE BOSS has not decided then use what THE BIG BOSS is saying. If THE BIG BOSS is not decided either then stay out.

soso not soso good soso far!

First of all, and I’m repeating myself again (and again), our MAs are ONLY tools to support and confirm PASR.

If you start using MAs for your judgment, then you might as well switch to an MA Cross trading thread.

Our Gospel is according to the Almighty PASR.

PASR is our King, Queen and Country.

There is nothing, NOTHING that comes even remotely close to the power of PASR for successful and profitable trading.

All our decisions are made on PASR – all our other tools, DSRI demand and supply, TLs, MAs, Fibs, wave analysis, etc, etc., are secondary and supporting to PASR.

That being said, the 20/50 trap is much more sensitive on the Worker. It has little to no impact on the BOSS due to the bigger candle ranges and for the most part, the spread of the MAs.

I was thinking that when THE BOSS has not decided then use what THE BIG BOSS is saying.

WHY? This sounds like you are desperate to trade – looking for a trade instead of SEEING a trade. IF the OPPORTUNITY is there, it will STAND OUT on the BOSS and Worker. If it doesn’t stand out, it isn’t a trade. Now, if you can’t SEE the OPPORTUNITY then that is something entirely different.

If THE BIG BOSS is not decided either then stay out.

At the risk of repeating myself again (and again and again), if the Worker does not present PASR in line to support the BOSS and BIG BOSS there is NO SAFE, LOW RISK trade.

Unknowingly, I have given you the definition for PASR OPPORTUNITY:

PASR OPPORTUNITY is when the Worker presents PASR in the direction and in support of the BOSS and BIG BOSS

See my earlier post on USDCAD and the relationship of the various time frames. Make sure you UNDERSTAND this. If you don’t, then ask.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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