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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #7,381
  • Nov 9, 2009 5:41pm Nov 9, 2009 5:41pm
Quoting elitejets
Here is a very good video about accepting losses, becoming consistent and thinking like a professional trader.
I have watched it many times and it helps me stay on track.

http://www.4shared.com/file/96740657...er_Market.html
Thank you, Nicola.

Everyone, do NOT read the next post WITHOUT watching this video.

Do NOT pass it by as something uninteresting or not helpful in trading.

Watch it OVER and OVER until you know it off by heart.

Trading psychology accounts for 95% of our success in trading.

Control your emotions (greed and fear) and you can make money on the toss of a coin strategy (50% probability).

IGNORE your trading psychology and never be in control of your emotions and you will NEVER, EVER make money in trading.

This is far MORE IMPORTANT than anything technical this thread can teach you!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,382
  • Nov 9, 2009 6:08pm Nov 9, 2009 6:08pm
134.90

I think it's trying to tell us something.
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  • #7,383
  • Nov 9, 2009 6:20pm Nov 9, 2009 6:20pm
I don't think that is going to hold - we will see. Nice observation. Time for price to declare itself.
  • #7,384
  • Edited 8:30pm Nov 9, 2009 6:36pm | Edited 8:30pm
Quoting strat
Alexandra, I think you missed Post # 7148 on Page 477. Please study the article in that post and share your thoughts with us. Thanks.
Hmmm...indeed, I was asleep at the wheel on that one.

First off, you know I loooove those forex prublications telling us repeatedly in multiple well-highlighted paragraphs that we are on a one way ticket to paradise. (That's a song, no?)

Indeed, I am not so naive to say that governments do not covertly devalue their currencies. The US is walking a tightrope between printing money and avoiding inflation. Do cheaper domestic goods facilitate this goal to avoid "stagflation"? Well....yes, indeed, they do. More importantly, however, I see the safe haven dollar and yen buying which treated us so well last year as in the process of reversing, with a resumption of prior trends. I know many a forex advisor who has advocated the crash of the Euro, so there is ample outstanding demand to support chronic dollar leak. So far, that has been my position, and it has proved quite productive against the Euro, while I am still awaiting the Yen. Indeed, to compete in the Asian boom, it is Japan who need to devalue covertly --- but they never do that.......do they Mr Finance Minister???

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

  • #7,385
  • Nov 9, 2009 6:49pm Nov 9, 2009 6:49pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
134.90

I think it's trying to tell us something.
It says "I am in the middle of two major SRs, 131-138".
  • #7,386
  • Nov 9, 2009 6:55pm Nov 9, 2009 6:55pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
134.90

I think it's trying to tell us something.
Hi Craig,

What I see with EJ is series IBs...so i'm waiting for the price reacts to the mother candle!

same thing for CHFJPY IMHO...

thanks.
  • #7,387
  • Nov 9, 2009 6:55pm Nov 9, 2009 6:55pm
I really like the look of this trade at the moment.

Big Boss + Boss + Worker all working together.

Swing high + LH's & LL's

Strong resistance above with confluence @ worker 50 and TL.

Break out of the 50 + 20 sandwich. 20 now gives us a little resistance to a push back up.

The path below looks relatively clear of trees until 1.770 which is my first target.

Daily PA - a not so perfect SS...

We have also just finished a nice little period of consolidation
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Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #7,388
  • Nov 9, 2009 7:12pm Nov 9, 2009 7:12pm
Quoting strat

That is all you need to know about Elliott Waves – don’t waste your time, energy and money on it – it is as reliable as The Weather Forecast in the UK!
Unfortunately I found EW before this thread...subscribed to the EW newsletter...read all the books they sent me...became hypnotized by their recommendations...

It did not end well ...

Going back to trading psychology and that excellent video Nic just posted my problem with EW is that it builds expectations and then in each newsletter it reinforces the expectations, with very good arguments, which as a new trader is deadly.

I was going to say I think its a very advanced tool but if you have paid for all those courses and still compare it to the UK Weather Forecast I think I best leave it well enough alone forever...
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #7,389
  • Nov 9, 2009 7:16pm Nov 9, 2009 7:16pm
Quoting Sinan
I really like the look of this trade at the moment.

Big Boss + Boss + Worker all working together.

Swing high + LH's & LL's

Strong resistance above with confluence @ worker 50 and TL.

Break out of the 50 + 20 sandwich. 20 now gives us a little resistance to a push back up.

The path below looks relatively clear of trees until 1.770 which is my first target.

Daily PA - a not so perfect SS...

We have also just finished a nice little period of consolidation
I don't see what you see and there is no opportunity on my chart. From Nov 01, the sellers have hardly made a dent in that up move. What makes you think they can do it now? Looks more like a test of resistance to me but then I'm not really looking because there is no opportunity.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,390
  • Nov 9, 2009 7:28pm Nov 9, 2009 7:28pm
Something to keep an eye on. Big Boss and Boss are spinning. Worker has been doing the slide up the DSRI.

I have been watching this pair for awhile. Time is on my side.

Strat's quote:
"A fool and his money are easily parted!"

And all this time I thought the quote was .... "A fool and his money are soon partying"
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  • #7,391
  • Nov 9, 2009 8:20pm Nov 9, 2009 8:20pm
[quote=strat;3219458Everyone, do NOT read the next post WITHOUT watching this video![/quote]

OH MY! This is the video of the MP3 I mentioned that made me able to put on a trade and follow it through to the end without it affecting me at all. BAM! This is great to see the actual thing. AWESOME stuff. THIS video, is what changed my trading from loosing to winning even as crappy and unskilled as it was.

Thank you for posting this link Nicola!
  • #7,392
  • Nov 9, 2009 11:53pm Nov 9, 2009 11:53pm
Quoting elitejets
Here is a very good video about accepting losses, becoming consistent and thinking like a professional trader.
I have watched it many times and it helps me stay on track.

http://www.4shared.com/file/96740657...er_Market.html
Thanks Nicola,

It summarises things what we had so far on the psychology part. If I may Strat:-

1) How the market works (It's about buyers and sellers)
2) Don't think there's nothing to think about no way we can know what the market outcome is going to be. (Keep it Simple, not to complicate things).
3) Its about probability by using our methods and increase the odds that others (buyer or sellers) will participate (Entry/Exit and momentum)
4) Accept risk of losing, emotional pain aside (smack in the chin and move on)
5) Think like profesional Traders do. (Think how much you can lose not how much you will get)
6) Risk management with good MM strategy. (risk : reward)
7) Cut losses and let the profit runs.
8) It's a series of trades not only one trade (trading is a long haul not a 100m dash)
9) Acceptibilty to be disappointed!!!

words in blue are some of Strat's quotes.

Thanks
  • #7,393
  • Nov 10, 2009 2:08am Nov 10, 2009 2:08am
Quoting strat
Are you implying that........................ Hmmmm, maybe an excursion to you know where may be in order here!
Hmm, I learned it from a trader who said that an 80 year old trader pal of his uses it. So I assumed it's an older method of analysis.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,394
  • Nov 10, 2009 2:45am Nov 10, 2009 2:45am
Quoting Blackeagle
It says "I am in the middle of two major SRs, 131-138".
Yes indeed, but inside that there are other smaller ranges - probably the most frequent smaller one is marked with the blue arrows. I have done quite well trading that smaller range because it is more frequent that the fuller larger one. There are more opportunities to go short and long and short and long etc.

Do you hang on for the larger one or take profits at the inside SR levels?
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  • #7,395
  • Edited 4:15am Nov 10, 2009 4:14am | Edited 4:15am
Hi Strat,

Only just found this thread and wanted to say thanks for all the work you and others have put into it. I've long been a fan of the J16 and Jacko way of trading and incorporate elements of both in my trading. Anyone that eschews indicators must be talking sense!!

So far I've spent a few days having a quick read through this thread and picked up some great stuff. My method is similar to what you do in some ways but not as good. I'm looking forward to improving what I do and am working my way through from the beginning of the thread in more detail.

Thanks again,

Chris
  • #7,396
  • Nov 10, 2009 5:50am Nov 10, 2009 5:50am
Quoting Lotuselanman
Do you hang on for the larger one or take profits at the inside SR levels?
I am trading 131-138 when PA exist at those levels. Trying to keep my charts as clean as possible, otherwise, you can find many SRs here and there.
  • #7,397
  • Edited 9:14am Nov 10, 2009 8:11am | Edited 9:14am
Dear Strat,

there is a post of yours (#1086) that I value alot because it explains very clearly why "Analysis is not trading" and how important is the psychology in trading. Not long ago, I believed analysis and trading were the same thing or at least analysis was a necessary "sub-component" of trading. I never saw them as separate things. I could do good analysis on charts but still loosing money. My explanation for this was that my analysis was bad or at least not good enough.

Now, looking back over the old charts and old posts, I see that the analysis was pretty good (well, not that bad ) but the trade entry was bad and/or MM was deficiently. Back then I was trading lower TFs and the stress had a huge psychological impact on my trade management. After I moved to daily TF and applying the knowledge learned from this thread I feel that my trading has improved. At least the psychological part is improved. Given the fact that profitable trading is 90% psychology, I think it's good

Last week, I've attended a forex conference and there was a live trading session. Presumably a good trader tried to show the audience how to trade forex live. There was only one trade shown. He started with an analysis on the weekly and daily TFs which had alot of common sense. Then he moved on lower TFs, which was OK because we didn't had all day to see a live trade. Then he moved to M15 because on H4 and H1 there was no setup. M15 didn't show anything good so he moved to M5 and then to M1. Based on the weekly and daily he took a trade on M1, which, 5 min later turned into a -10% loss.

It was pretty hilarious but for me is a good example of how huge is the psychology in trading. Instead of looking on other pairs, the trader took the trade on M1 because he felt pressure from the crowd to take a trade. He took the trade and he got a -10% balance 5 min later. Sometimes I felt like that trader at the conference.

In the end I would like to thank you mr guitar (Strat) for starting this thread and sharing your knowledge and wisdom and many thanks also to the contribuitors. I'm still haven't finished reading all the posts but I keep in sync with the new ones so by the end of the year I might pull this off

Cheers!
  • #7,398
  • Nov 10, 2009 8:31am Nov 10, 2009 8:31am
Quoting strat
I don't see what you see and there is no opportunity on my chart. From Nov 01, the sellers have hardly made a dent in that up move. What makes you think they can do it now? Looks more like a test of resistance to me but then I'm not really looking because there is no opportunity.
I think I became too focused on the daily PA closing below my support line....and probably doing my analysis too late at night.

If I draw in the DSRI demand line the picture becomes more clear...we need to break below that line and get a nice push away from it...the MA's are also converging so indecision reigns.
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Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #7,399
  • Nov 10, 2009 8:52am Nov 10, 2009 8:52am
Quoting hcristea
Deer Strat,

there is a post of yours (#1086) that I value alot because it explains very clearly why "Analysis is not trading" and how important is the psychology in trading. Not long ago, I believed analysis and trading were the same thing or at least analysis was a necessary "sub-component" of trading. I never saw them as separate things. I could do good analysis on charts but still loosing money. My explanation for this was that my analysis was bad or at least...
This just proves what I’ve said over and over and over. ONLY TRADE OPPORTUNITIES. An OPPORTUNITY stands out like a sore thumb – it is there for all to see.

If you don’t SEE an OPPORTUNITY, there isn’t one.

If you have to go looking for a trade, you will LOSE.

A trade with NO OPPORTUNITY is 100% RISK.

New and inexperienced traders think, probably because of the forex media and unscrupulous promotion by brokers, that they have to be trading non – stop all day. They enter trade after trade when there is no opportunity and before they know it are hooked.

Their adrenalin and urge to trade drives them to trade even more frequently. They ignore all rules and losses as they are overcome by the cloud of hysteria caused by thinking they are now “REAL” traders.

Before they know it, they blow account after account as they are caught in the headlights of the trading GAME. Little do they know they are just feeding the predators that lured them into their lair in the first place. They will keep on feeding them until they are financially broke or they come to their senses. Some are so hooked that they never come to their senses and just keep playing the GAME.

Contrast that with experienced traders who are “happy and comfortable” with who they are and know that trading is all about SEEING OPPORTUNITIES. They will wait PATIENTLY and with DISCIPLINE until an OPPORTUNITY presents itself and then they will POUNCE. They know they will have to WAIT for the next OPPORTUNITY but that is what made them profitable in the first place so they have no problem waiting.

They key to winning at trading is SEEING the OPPORTUNITY and acting on it.

Losers don’t see opportunity. Driven by greed, all they see is riches from forex and trade every hiccup the market presents to them. They trade when they shouldn’t and don’t trade when they should. Like their profits, their trading style is upside down and inside out.

So, SEE the OPPORTUNITY and trade it.

If you don’t SEE an OPPORTUNITY, there is NO TRADE.

If you have to go LOOKING FOR A TRADE, you will LOSE!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,400
  • Nov 10, 2009 9:07am Nov 10, 2009 9:07am
Quoting Sinan
I think I became too focused on the daily PA closing below my support line....and probably doing my analysis too late at night.

If I draw in the DSRI demand line the picture becomes more clear...we need to break below that line and get a nice push away from it...the MA's are also converging so indecision reigns.
I think I became too focused on the daily PA closing below my support line....and probably doing my analysis too late at night.

Finally you came to your senses. Just because PRICE closes beyond SR levels is NOT a given to trade. You have to LOOK at the BIG PICTURE and especially SEE BEYOND THE CANDLES.

NEVER, EVER TRADE WHEN YOU ARE TIRED, ILL OR “NOT IN THE MOOD”. You need to be on top of your game when trading.

If I draw in the DSRI demand line the picture becomes more clear...we need to break below that line and get a nice push away from it...the MA's are also converging so indecision reigns.

The line you have drawn is NOT a DSRI demand line, it is a trend line. However, it presents an accurate sentiment of the market.

You don’t NEED to break below that line – we don’t care what it does – we just need PRICE to do something relative to our levels and understand what the market is telling us.

When PRICE is in the 20/50 TRAP, it is ALWAYS best to WAIT for it to emerge one side or the other. Usually, but not always, a big move results from the 20/50 trap so make sure you are on the right side of PRICE.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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