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Weekly Trend Trading Method

  • #241
  • Edited 11:15am Nov 5, 2009 10:57am | Edited 11:15am
Quoting lgtj
Look at these daily charts. These are the most recent signals. Do we have any valid signals? If so, why? If not, why not?
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Ok the answer is none of the signals are valid signals.
Why not?
Eurusd - Too much space between the macd bar and signal line.

Usdcad - The macd bar is above the signal line and the rsi is on the 50 line.

Audusd - Too much space between the macd bar and signal line and the rsi is on the 50 line.

Usdchf - Too much space between the macd bar and signal line.

Gbpjpy - Too much space between the macd bar and signal line.

Eurjpy - Way too much space between the macd bar and signal line.
  • #242
  • Nov 5, 2009 2:09pm Nov 5, 2009 2:09pm
Hi lgtj, looking at the chart between the 2 red lines i see a consolidation in price. Am just trying to find out how you would trade things like this, as there are multiple long and short signals one after the other and price going no where, would you have taken the first 2 setups? and when you see price chopping leave those trades running, as without hindsight you couldnt know that price was just going to chop around for a good 6 weeks. Thanks
  • #243
  • Nov 5, 2009 4:00pm Nov 5, 2009 4:00pm
Quoting kaaea
Hi lgtj, looking at the chart between the 2 red lines i see a consolidation in price. Am just trying to find out how you would trade things like this, as there are multiple long and short signals one after the other and price going no where, would you have taken the first 2 setups? and when you see price chopping leave those trades running, as without hindsight you couldnt know that price was just going to chop around for a good 6 weeks. Thanks
Good observation. Whenever you see the conditions that you described, stay away from that pair until there is movement again. You wouldn't have known that the market was going to be choppy after those signals, but if you pay attention to the s&r levels, trend lines, and price action, you wouldn't take any trades. The answer to your question is no I would not have taken the first two signals. Look at this chart. The candles with the red lines are the ones that you are talking about. What do you see and tell me why do you think that I would not take these trades.
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Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #244
  • Nov 5, 2009 5:02pm Nov 5, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting lgtj
Ok the answer is none of the signals are valid signals.
Why not?
Eurusd - Too much space between the macd bar and signal line.

Usdcad - The macd bar is above the signal line and the rsi is on the 50 line.

Audusd - Too much space between the macd bar and signal line and the rsi is on the 50 line.

Usdchf - Too much space between the macd bar and signal line.

Gbpjpy - Too much space between the macd bar and signal line.

Eurjpy - Way too much space between the macd bar and signal line.
How much space should there be between the MACD and the signal bar?
  • #245
  • Nov 5, 2009 5:23pm Nov 5, 2009 5:23pm
Quoting Scratch99
How much space should there be between the MACD and the signal bar?
The macd bar should touch the signal line or about to touch it with hardly any space between them at all and the signal line has to be going in the direction of the trend. This is covered on the first page of this thread(aggressive valid signals post #4). The slopes on all of the pairs were showing aggressive signals.
  • #246
  • Nov 5, 2009 6:21pm Nov 5, 2009 6:21pm
I am still is usdjpy short and just received a buy signal. Getting very nervous.
  • #247
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:53pm Nov 5, 2009 9:53pm
Quoting Scratch99
I am still is usdjpy short and just received a buy signal. Getting very nervous.
Scratch, you did not get a valid buy signal. Just because the 2ma cross appeared does not mean that it's a valid signal. Please re-read the first page again about valid signals.
  • #248
  • Nov 6, 2009 10:14pm Nov 6, 2009 10:14pm
Quoting lgtj
Good observation. Whenever you see the conditions that you described, stay away from that pair until there is movement again. You wouldn't have known that the market was going to be choppy after those signals, but if you pay attention to the s&r levels, trend lines, and price action, you wouldn't take any trades. The answer to your question is no I would not have taken the first two signals. Look at this chart. The candles with the red lines are the ones that you are talking about. What do you see and tell me why do you think that I would not take...
Hi, from what I see there is a trendline that you could draw on the lower highs from the start of the chart that intersect with the short setup, there are also pivot levels, do you take trades near pivot levels? or is it just the pivot point itself. But the long trade triggers at the end of the month and isn't near any pivot or trendline level as do the other 2 longs stopping you out 3 times. Not sure if this is correct or whether you will have multiple positions open on the same pair? Have a good weekend.
  • #249
  • Nov 7, 2009 4:15pm Nov 7, 2009 4:15pm
Quoting kaaea
Hi, from what I see there is a trendline that you could draw on the lower highs from the start of the chart that intersect with the short setup, there are also pivot levels, do you take trades near pivot levels? or is it just the pivot point itself. But the long trade triggers at the end of the month and isn't near any pivot or trendline level as do the other 2 longs stopping you out 3 times. Not sure if this is correct or whether you will have multiple positions open on the same pair? Have a good weekend.
The reason I wouldn't have taken those trades is because they were not valid signals. All of the indicators did not match up. So no multiple trades would have been placed. Yes I take trades near pivot points only if a candle has closed above/below the pivot point and I have a valid signal. Also the long signal given towards the end of the month was not a valid signal. So no trade would have been placed.
  • #250
  • Nov 8, 2009 7:39am Nov 8, 2009 7:39am
Hi, lgtj!

Can you please post more examples how you analyze from weekly down to 4 hours? So far all the trades that i did with your method turned to profit, but sometimes i'm not sure about it. I mean like that separation of macd and signal line, etc...
"All good things come to those who wait..."
  • #251
  • Nov 8, 2009 7:52am Nov 8, 2009 7:52am
The weekly chart can be used to see when a currency pair goes "on sale". The daily chart can be used to see if the buyers are on a "shopping spree". This doesn't sound sophisticated but it works. The white/black bars are daily bars and the green/red shaded areas are the weekly "bars".

http://i944.photobucket.com/albums/a...n/usdjpy-3.gif

The usdjpy was "on sale" at the beginning of the week and buyers flocked. Wednesday was the last day of the shopping spree as the sellers drove the buyers away. This week the buyers may come back for more. I apologize if I am speaking out of turn here.
  • #252
  • Nov 8, 2009 1:53pm Nov 8, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting lostfx
Hi, lgtj!

Can you please post more examples how you analyze from weekly down to 4 hours? So far all the trades that i did with your method turned to profit, but sometimes i'm not sure about it. I mean like that separation of macd and signal line, etc...
Sure. I'm glad you're profiting from this method. If you're not sure about a possible set up, DO NOT place a trade. Post any set ups that you're unsure of, and I'll evaluate it for you.
  • #253
  • Nov 8, 2009 4:23pm Nov 8, 2009 4:23pm
My question is that do you always look at weekly? I mean if there are opportunities on daily chart and all indicators line up and we are going in the direction of weekly trend, is there anything that would prevent you from taking the trade? Or do you always wait for weekly to give you a signal and the you switch to daily to enter a trade? I still do not use switching to 4 hour. Can you give more examples when and at which conditions would you switch from daily to 4H to enter trade? I read your post about aggressive entry, but do you consider it only as a optional entry or you always switch to it?
"All good things come to those who wait..."
  • #254
  • Edited 5:03pm Nov 8, 2009 4:44pm | Edited 5:03pm
Quoting lostfx
My question is that do you always look at weekly? I mean if there are opportunities on daily chart and all indicators line up and we are going in the direction of weekly trend, is there anything that would prevent you from taking the trade? Or do you always wait for weekly to give you a signal and the you switch to daily to enter a trade? I still do not use switching to 4 hour. Can you give more examples when and at which conditions would you switch from daily to 4H to enter trade? I read your post about aggressive entry, but do you consider it...
I go to the weekly chart to plot trend lines for trend direction. When valid signals are given on the daily time frame, I take trades on the daily time frame depending where the s&r levels are. I don't take trades if price closes near an s&r level, trend line, or 50sma because I don't know how price will react at those levels. I don't wait for the weekly to give a signal before I take a trade. I monitor the daily time frame and check the weekly for confirmation. But if there is a valid signal on the weekly, then I'll check the daily for confirmation. The aggressive entry is an optional entry only if you want to get into price action a little earlier. When I see an opportunity to enter early I always take it. I'll post more examples when they occur.
  • #255
  • Nov 8, 2009 4:49pm Nov 8, 2009 4:49pm
Thanks a lot. That explains lots of things....
"All good things come to those who wait..."
  • #256
  • Edited 5:39pm Nov 8, 2009 4:52pm | Edited 5:39pm
Quoting lostfx
Thanks a lot. That explains lots of things....
Lost, check out page 5 post #55. You will see two successful trades that I took on the 4hr chart because I got aggressive valid signals on the daily charts.
  • #257
  • Nov 8, 2009 5:07pm Nov 8, 2009 5:07pm
Did we just receive another sell signal on usdjpy. Looks like. If so is this a good sign that we will go down bye quite a bit?
  • #258
  • Nov 8, 2009 5:25pm Nov 8, 2009 5:25pm
Quoting Scratch99
Did we just receive another sell signal on usdjpy. Looks like. If so is this a good sign that we will go down bye quite a bit?
Looks like usdjpy is finally going to start heading south. Let's see what happens.
  • #259
  • Nov 8, 2009 5:38pm Nov 8, 2009 5:38pm
Look at these daily charts. Are they valid signals? If so, why? If not, why not? Would you take the trade?
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 35 KB

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Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #260
  • Nov 8, 2009 5:56pm Nov 8, 2009 5:56pm
Only valid one that I can see id USDJPY.
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