AUD/USD

ben10,

If you had to choose between trading AUD or NZD, which would you pick?

Thanks.

Wile E

Hi Guys

Just flicking through charts and I see we have an inside bar on USDX weekly chart. I was also looking at previous candles and I see in February 2008 that we had a similar candle formation (circled). I'm under no illusion that we have already done a HUGE yearly range though but with the Fed reiterating this week that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time - that doesn't really help the US$.



Here's another report which I received by email which gives a good fundamental wrap-up for the week so if you haven't caught up with fundies this week, this report can fill in some gaps. The report is now from Lloyds TSB because they bought out HBOS (Halifax & Bank of Scotland) but it is the same blokes giving the commentary as before when I used to post the BoS strategies.



And, just for fun, here's how FXCM's clients were placed on Friday evening Good trades this week

SSI: USDJPY Positioning Quickly Jumps to an Extreme as Retail traders Cut Shorts
Friday, 06 Nov 2009 18:57 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter



SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.43 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.49 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.1% lower than yesterday and 18.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.5% lower than yesterday and 29.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.7% weaker than yesterday and 3.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -2.20 as nearly 69% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.64 as 62% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.2% lower than yesterday and 10.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 14.9% higher than yesterday and 50.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% stronger than yesterday and 8.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.06 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.20 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.6% higher than yesterday and 6.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.1% lower than yesterday and 24.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.3% weaker than yesterday and 6.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 3.51 as nearly 78% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.30 as 70% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 17.0% higher than yesterday and 2.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 23.2% lower than yesterday and 1.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.8% stronger than yesterday and 0.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.35 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.31 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.6% lower than yesterday and 13.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.5% lower than yesterday and 12.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.8% weaker than yesterday and 10.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.15 as nearly 76% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.03 as 75% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.3% lower than yesterday and 27.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.8% lower than yesterday and 14.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 8.1% weaker than yesterday and 2.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.33 as nearly 57% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.06 as 51% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.6% lower than yesterday and 18.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 19.8% higher than yesterday and 32.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.2% stronger than yesterday and 0.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.9% lower than yesterday and 2.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.7% lower than yesterday and 33.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.6% weaker than yesterday and 3.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

How to Interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.

Thanks Patience for the report. Very informative and useful.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1257715978Hot off the newswires...

morning Wile E, i defeneatly chose aud/usd as the spread is lower

as the price getting higher i add more, snowballing at work but i keep the best price, if the stop taken ill bank the profit if the price continue my way profit getting bigger


http://img01.imagefra.me/img/img01/2...am_5de8644.png

9270

7350 cracked add more move profit stop too

http://img02.imagefra.me/img/img02/2...fm_5fb53ac.png

if 7330 hit im out of the kiwi trade/s

Happy at the moment, my indicators showed strong bull. Jumped on at 0.9208.
Loving this ride

thanks for the post Patience! and here the forecast from various brokers and insto players

http://img01.imagefra.me/img/img01/2...jm_995edc4.png

but my playing ground is synthetic value eur/usd x usd/yen = eur/yen

i send the aussie scout out at 9248 short

http://img02.imagefra.me/img/img02/2...gm_5bdb14c.png

price exhibit weakness on 30 second chart, add more short !take the risk

http://img03.imagefra.me/img/img03/2...fm_9f04577.png

kiwi profit stop at 7330 still hold , markets slowing and im out of here , lunch time, CIAO!

Everyone Wants To Buy AUD - JPM

AUD/USD enjoying good buying from slew of Asia-based accounts and while could fall prey to some profit taking at current levels, London will push pair higher again, says JP Morgan FX dealer Matthew Brady. "I suspect the offshore market will come in and buy, dips should be pretty limited for the Aussie at this point in time." Says buying from Asia is from proprietary accounts, models, hedge funds and more; "everyone just seems to want to buy it." Notes housing finance surge, G-20 stimulus comments and IMF views on USD all positive for AUD. Immediate resistance at 0.9270, support 0.9180, last 0.9256.(EGC)

hI All,
Just loging in to see what is happening with the markets. Seems like the effect of the Home loans news has kicked in. Is this enough push to go through 93.00? My thoughts would be that we will see new highs such as 9350 before it really starts to go down again. Or is it down from 9270 as G Man says? or down from 9248 as Ben says? If we take the average of the three we get 9289. Anyone to bet on this!.....

My thoughts are that as long as the dow continues up then AUD is a long play. (.9500 by year end)
As soon as US looks like raising interest rates then that is the time to short AUD.
This is of course long term outlook.

Just my 2 pips

R1 9270

R2 9300

R3 9330

Can you share your thoughts on this?

Is this just short term scalp play or longer term outlook?