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  • #7,341
  • Nov 7, 2009 3:46pm Nov 7, 2009 3:46pm
Quoting gaf
Hey Strat,...
I take it from this question that you have not been on The Path of Learning. I recommend you go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning as so many others have done so that you can answer your own question.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,342
  • Nov 7, 2009 4:05pm Nov 7, 2009 4:05pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
If I was going Long on this one, where would the stop go?

1. Below the 14820 SR line and the 20 MA which is also the Low of Friday's bear candle, so 2 points below the shadow of the candle.

2. Or below the SR line at 14720, 61% Fib and therefore 2 points below the shadow of Wednesday's bull candle.

3. Or indeed somewhere else entirely?

As I am trying to only take *** trades, I will wait for PA confirmation of the resumption of the UT, but...... the question still remains and advice from experienced traders would be helpful....
where would the stop go?

Christopher, I don't see any PA on this as a reason to go long, so it's a hypothetical question.

If you were really desperate to trade EURUSD, you would trade off the BOSS and your SL would be below the hammer (my data).

Yes, the options for placing our SL are:

Above/below the set up bar

Above/below SR

Above/below MAs

Above/below swings

Exactly which one to use is always dependent on PRICE and where PRICE is relative to the levels and candles around it.

As for my using 7 pips, if I said it then it’s not a hard and fast rule. I just look at the chart, PRICE, the levels and swings and go from there. It may be 2 pips or 30 pips.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,343
  • Edited 4:15pm Nov 7, 2009 4:13pm | Edited 4:15pm
[quote=Lotuselanman;3215072]If I was going Long on this one, where would the stop go?

Hey lotus
can't see any pa to go long, but for what it's worth, my rules are 10 pips below or above signal candle, more on gbp/yen(15-20)

Best
Golfer

See Strats reply
  • #7,344
  • Nov 7, 2009 8:54pm Nov 7, 2009 8:54pm
Quoting strat
I take it from this question that you have not been on The Path of Learning. I recommend you go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning as so many others have done so that you can answer your own question.
Sounds great I'll give it another go. Cheers.

John
Finally out of the shadows.
  • #7,345
  • Nov 8, 2009 3:46am Nov 8, 2009 3:46am
As you can see from the chart, the trend is definitely up and it took 6 days to drop only 157 pips from 0.9800 major SR but only 3 days to climb 215 pips and broke the major SR.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,346
  • Nov 8, 2009 11:03am Nov 8, 2009 11:03am
Quoting strat
OK. So now you have wasted your time and energy on this, what will you do with this information?

How will this help you be more successful and profitable trading forex?
I doubt it will Strat - it was merely an observation on how some pairs follow the indices very closely as I was able to plot the chart relative to the index. I noted you had posted some correlations before (eurusd/usdchf) and wondered if we could glean anything from it.

I guess if you were thinking of going long equities in your savings account and short audusd then your thinking would be contrary to your other view.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #7,347
  • Nov 8, 2009 11:23am Nov 8, 2009 11:23am
Guys,

what do you think about entering long AUD/USD?

Tehnically speaking we have 3 good reasons:

- the trend is up, last candle closed above EMA20
- candle closed above major resistence from .9160
- candle closed outside the triangle

Fundamentally speaking, we have 4 good reasons:

-U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers reiterated their intention to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for “an extended period.”
-Speculation that the Fed will keep rates on hold into next year was further fueled by U.S. Labor Department figures on Nov. 6 that showed the nation’s unemployment rate jumped to 10.2 percent in October, exceeding 10 percent for the first time since 1983.
-Australia’s central bank said the nation’s economy will expand at more than three times the pace forecast in August, and signaled it will continue to lead the world in raising interest rates.
- IMF, 2 days ago: “There are indications that the U.S. dollar is now serving as the funding currency for carry trades,”

Add to this the gold @ new highs and c banks (India&Sri Lanka) entering long on XAU.

I think it's a good trade, what do you think?
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  • #7,348
  • Nov 8, 2009 1:26pm Nov 8, 2009 1:26pm
Quoting Keyser Soze
Guys,

what do you think about entering long AUD/USD?

Tehnically speaking we have 3 good reasons:

- the trend is up, last candle closed above EMA20
- candle closed above major resistence from .9160
- candle closed outside the triangle

Fundamentally speaking, we have 4 good reasons:

-U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers reiterated their intention to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for “an extended period.”
-Speculation that the Fed will keep rates on hold into next year was further fueled by U.S. Labor...
I have been long since last week. Seems like a good trade but I think its too late to enter now because price has already moved quite a bit and is close to the resistance.
  • #7,349
  • Nov 8, 2009 1:56pm Nov 8, 2009 1:56pm
Quoting Blackeagle
As you can see from the chart, the trend is definitely up and it took 6 days to drop only 157 pips from 0.9800 major SR but only 3 days to climb 215 pips and broke the major SR.
………….it took 6 days to drop only 157 pips from 0.9800 major SR but only 3 days to climb 215 pips

Great minds think alike, Blackeagle! When I can’t see the stair steps in a trend, I count the time and pips in each “wave/swing” to get an idea of which is Impulse and which is Corrective
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,350
  • Nov 8, 2009 2:01pm Nov 8, 2009 2:01pm
Quoting Keyser Soze
Guys,

what do you think about entering long AUD/USD?

Tehnically speaking we have 3 good reasons:

- the trend is up, last candle closed above EMA20
- candle closed above major resistence from .9160
- candle closed outside the triangle

Fundamentally speaking, we have 4 good reasons:

-U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers reiterated their intention to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for “an extended period.”
-Speculation that the Fed will keep rates on hold into next year was further fueled by U.S. Labor...
What do you think about entering long AUD/USD?.

OK, as long as you know what type of trade you will be making and therefore, know what to do at 0.9286.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,351
  • Nov 8, 2009 2:11pm Nov 8, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting Grimweasel
I doubt it will Strat - it was merely an observation on how some pairs follow the indices very closely as I was able to plot the chart relative to the index. I noted you had posted some correlations before (eurusd/usdchf) and wondered if we could glean anything from it.

I guess if you were thinking of going long equities in your savings account and short audusd then your thinking would be contrary to your other view.
Way too much thinking, Danny boy!

Just see the opportunity and trade it - absolutely no need to think about it.

Leave the thinking to those that THINK they know what do and those that don't know what to do.

TRADING IS SIMPLE

The more you THINK, the more COMPLEX it becomes.

The CLEANER the chart, the more OBVIOUS is the opportunity.

The more lines and STUFF on a chart, the more COMPLICATED it is which causes CONFUSION in the mind.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,352
  • Nov 8, 2009 2:15pm Nov 8, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting strat
What do you think about entering long AUD/USD?.

OK, as long as you know what type of trade you will be making and therefore, know what to do at 0.9286.
close 50% of my posiion
move SL @ BE
  • #7,353
  • Nov 8, 2009 4:40pm Nov 8, 2009 4:40pm
Quoting strat
Way too much thinking, Danny boy!

Just see the opportunity and trade it - absolutely no need to think about it.

Leave the thinking to those that THINK they know what do and those that don't know what to do.

TRADING IS SIMPLE

The more you THINK, the more COMPLEX it becomes.

The CLEANER the chart, the more OBVIOUS is the opportunity.

The more lines and STUFF on a chart, the more COMPLICATED it is which causes CONFUSION in the mind.

Indeed Strat - funny thing is I'm reading a book a 'broker' mate of mine lent me called 'Traders, Guns and Money' by Satyajit Das - all about financial derivatives, weapons of mass destruction as Buffet called them. Cracking read

There is a quote in there from non other than Sir Issac Newton, one of the founding figures of modern science - He lost £20,000 (a large sum even by today's standard) in the stock market as a result of the South Sea share bubble. Chastened, Newton later said :

"I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies but not the madness of people"

So, less thinking and more just trading what the chart tells me because if one of the greatest minds of science fell foul of thinking too much, what hope have I???

Best quote thus far...

"The application of maths to finance is tricky - it assumes many things that we don't know - known unknowns and unknown unknowns. Assume you are interested in the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates. From historical prices, you might detect a positive relationship - the higher the interest rates are, the higher the exchange rate. The problem is that the relationship may not mean much. You may have omitted variable bias - stock prices may be more important than than interest rates in determining exchange rate. There may be a reverse causality - exchange rates may affect interest rates, not vice versa"

So what? Well, this is from a 'master of the universe' and if they couldn't fathom out the correlations what hope have we/I. Thanks again Strat for providing the wisdom that I had to go and check myself - please ignore all my FTSE relative charts from earlier. I stand corrected.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #7,354
  • Nov 8, 2009 4:43pm Nov 8, 2009 4:43pm
Some big gaps on the open this evening - not seen gaps like that before on a Sunday. Little too much leftover fizz from Friday on cable and nzd crosses - looks like a good fade
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #7,355
  • Nov 8, 2009 4:46pm Nov 8, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting Keyser Soze
Guys,

what do you think about entering long AUD/USD?

Tehnically speaking we have 3 good reasons:

- the trend is up, last candle closed above EMA20
- candle closed above major resistence from .9160
- candle closed outside the triangle

Fundamentally speaking, we have 4 good reasons:

-U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers reiterated their intention to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for “an extended period.”
-Speculation that the Fed will keep rates on hold into next year was further fueled by U.S. Labor...
I am already Long since last week. Reasons were almost the same as the ones you list and I only take notice of technical ones. But I don't have the 'major Resistance from 9160' on my chart.

Extra reasons for me were that the Boss and B. Boss are up. That the brief consolidation was around the 50 Fib when drawn from the SL on 2nd Oct to the SH on 21st Oct - [although I am wary of Fibs as indicators as they can often be drawn to fit a trade] - and the shadow of the 4th Nov. candle was resting on the TL.

My stop was below the TL and my TP is 9293 on my chart. This gives a Ris:Rew of approx 1:2.4 which is okay but not marvellous.

If the move up occurs as I expect, then I may consider moving the Stop below the 20 MA.

I am at the first step only on the Path so my comments need to be seen in that light.

Good Luck!
  • #7,356
  • Nov 8, 2009 6:06pm Nov 8, 2009 6:06pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Some big gaps on the open this evening - not seen gaps like that before on a Sunday. Little too much leftover fizz from Friday on cable and nzd crosses - looks like a good fade
The reason is not the leftover from Friday, it is because IMF's statement on exchange rates at weekend.
  • #7,357
  • Nov 8, 2009 6:15pm Nov 8, 2009 6:15pm
Quoting Grimweasel

Indeed Strat - funny thing is I'm reading a book a 'broker' mate of mine lent me called 'Traders, Guns and Money' by Satyajit Das - all about financial derivatives, weapons of mass destruction as Buffet called them. Cracking read

There is a quote in there from non other than Sir Issac Newton, one of the founding figures of modern science - He lost £20,000 (a large sum even by today's standard) in the stock market as a result of the South Sea share bubble....
"I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies but not the madness of people"

No need to read any books for this, Danny boy. Just remember what Dr. Joe told me - he could calculate lunar landings and lunar trajectories but could not calculate even one day into the future on commodities and futures!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,358
  • Nov 8, 2009 6:17pm Nov 8, 2009 6:17pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
I am already Long since last week....
I am at the first step only on the Path so my comments need to be seen in that light.

Too modest, Christopher! You have moved very nicely on The Path!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,359
  • Nov 8, 2009 6:37pm Nov 8, 2009 6:37pm
Quoting strat
... When I can’t see the stair steps in a trend, I count the time and pips in each “wave/swing” to get an idea of which is Impulse and which is Corrective ...
Another great lesson/hint. Thanks.
  • #7,360
  • Nov 8, 2009 6:53pm Nov 8, 2009 6:53pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
I am already Long since last week....
I missed this one, because my data shows no PA (from daily) until the close of 11/4 where RR was 0.60 (my stop was behind 0.88 minor SR). I could enter from H4 but I waited for 0.8800 - 0.8850 SR retest (as you know SRs are more reliable than DSRIs) but never happened. So I will look for another opportunity at 0.9330, until then I am watching (and/or trading) other pairs like GBPUSD, GBPCHF, EURUSD and AUDCAD.

Your TP is correct, IMO, where there is an SR at 0.9330.
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