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4% A Day Forever

  • #481
  • Nov 6, 2009 12:54pm Nov 6, 2009 12:54pm
Quoting X.Oden
10 second chart? What charting tool do you use?
Oanda provides the 5sec, 10sec, 30sec, 1m, 5m, ... 1d charts.
  • #482
  • Nov 6, 2009 1:26pm Nov 6, 2009 1:26pm
Quoting X.Oden
10 second chart? What charting tool do you use?
Oanda has 5s, 10s, and 30s charts.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #483
  • Nov 6, 2009 2:26pm Nov 6, 2009 2:26pm
Quoting odt101
Another thing we have in common: recent big losses. Recently I also lost a big % of my account. Only mine is bigger than yours, in both % and absolute value. But I swear I will gain the loss back with my left-over capital. I will talk about my failed strategy later.

For now, I really want to ask you some questions regarding your current trading strategy. You said you now target 4pips, with sl=10 but never let it hit. And most of your loss is only 2~3 pips. How do you manage it? Do you close your position once it is in red 2~3 pips, or you may...
Hi odt101,

Regarding big losses: something that is ingrained in my psyche now is - there is absolutely no reason to get into a situation where a big chunk of your account is at risk, or drawn down. If you make a bad trade, take a quick loss, simple as that. Now, I say I am trying to kill losers within 2-pips or so in these very short tf scalps, and in general, that is true, and most of the time I do just that. But if I feel strongly that I am in a repetitive range, I might let a loser run beyond that. Sometimes that works out and sometimes it does not. In the past few days I know I have killed a couple 5-pip losing scalps where I would have been happy to take a 3-pip win. Not good. Probably better to kill those losers quick and re-enter a better trade - I am getting better about doing that all the time. And, also, I never add to losing trades anymore. Never.

The key to getting a high hit rate, for me, is being able to trade in volatile conditions where the profit target is well within the bounds of that volatility. There is a tradeoff between safety and potential gains but one need only realize that volatile conditions are showing up every day and often like clockwork - so there's always another easy winner around the corner - you don't have to milk every pip out of a volatile move...

I do trade on the 10s charts but typically that is teamed with the M1 chart and 10s is helping to refine entries. If I am in ranging conditions I am looking for a "peak-to-peak" range of no less than 10 pips - so I can use stalling PA or candlstick patterns or a bounce off S/R or a PP or or range pattern repetition or my gut to make an entry at/near the top/bottom of the range and shoot for a target of 1/2 that range - or 4-pips + 1-pip spread. I use the BB as a general guide.

I am becoming more and more a trader who is looking for predictable volatility. My approach is simply to limit my profit target to be well within the predicted range of any given set of volatility conditions. Smaller target = higher probability of success. With a high rate of successful trades comes the confidence, if not the willingness, to risk larger amounts of equity on a particular trade. Larger trades + high probability of success on easy profit targets + repetition + "don't do stupid newbie shit and put too much of your equity at risk" = The Road to Wealth.

So, what is "predictable volatility"...? Volatility is just movement in the PA. Volatility may be a condition that lasts for some time, as in volatile ranging PA - that is fun and easy to scalp. Or there may be predictable volatility relative to a specific event. News events are an example. Volatile conditions and specific volatile events are both predicatable and explicit. In general, volatile conditions occur for a given pair during specific time-frames in each day - for E/U, I like the FO/LO - roughly 0630 - 0930 GMT. For me, that is the "night shift". Then, of course, the volatile events are on the calendar. I like scalping for small profit targets but I also like playing break-outs and news volatility for larger targets. The latter volatility events are predictable enough and my approach is the same - shoot for a target well within the expected range of PA movement....

So I traded the unemployment news today. I set the alarm for 5AM, got up, drank some coffee, and saw some strong PA moving down just before the announcement - so I caught a quick 5-pip scalp and got out at about 5:28. Then I watched the candles go up and down and after a while I saw that E/U was going up & would continue to move up & I entered a trade with a 25-pip TP and a 10-pip sl & I went back to bed. Woke up a few hours later & my tp had been hit & PA had moved up another 50 pips beyond it. I was not sad, I was happy to hit that trade for about another 3% increase to my account. Hit 15% for the week and I have been limiting myself to about 2-3 hours of screen time per day.

Anyway, odt101 - that's a fair picture of the way I trade. Let me know if you have any questions and Best of Luck to You!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #484
  • Nov 6, 2009 2:55pm Nov 6, 2009 2:55pm
Quoting The Fool
Hi odt101,

Regarding big losses: something that is ingrained in my psyche now is - there is absolutely no reason to get into a situation where a big chunk of your account is at risk, or drawn down. If you make a bad trade, take a quick loss, simple as that. Now, I say I am trying to kill losers within 2-pips or so in these very short tf scalps, and in general, that is true, and most of the time I do just that. But if I feel strongly that I am in a repetitive range, I might let a loser run beyond that. Sometimes that works out and sometimes it...

Cool on the 15% this week dude, just keep repeating and don't be getting all creative on me

My setups are pretty much refined / well defined so it's looking good, but I'm struggling with the entire what if it fails and missing many many opportunitys currently, but working on it have it cracked soon then I should get the account surge I've been after working on ( and off ) for all of these YEARS Scarey!!


Good weekend dude!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #485
  • Nov 6, 2009 3:09pm Nov 6, 2009 3:09pm
Quoting Turveyd
Cool on the 15% this week dude, just keep repeating and don't be getting all creative on me

My setups are pretty much refined / well defined so it's looking good, but I'm struggling with the entire what if it fails and missing many many opportunitys currently, but working on it have it cracked soon then I should get the account surge I've been after working on ( and off ) for all of these YEARS Scarey!!


Good weekend dude!!
Who, me - creative? I am just trying to stick with what works for me and avoid what does not. Sounds so simple, it really should be. I guess it just had to be that I would have to lose a shitload of money before I could see that.

But I am trying to stay positive. Hope you will, too D - have a good weekend yourself. I will be working....trying to get all my dayjob backlog done so I can take a few weeks off in the sun come December-Jan - I'm thinking Kona coast....maybe Maui....I'm already sick of the rain....power went out last night for 4 hours. Luckily came back on around the LO. Power outages = mandatory tight SL's - scary.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #486
  • Nov 6, 2009 3:20pm Nov 6, 2009 3:20pm
Quoting The Fool
Who, me - creative? I am just trying to stick with what works for me and avoid what does not. Sounds so simple, it really should be. I guess it just had to be that I would have to lose a shitload of money before I could see that.

But I am trying to stay positive. Hope you will, too D - have a good weekend yourself. I will be working....trying to get all my dayjob backlog done so I can take a few weeks off in the sun come December-Jan - I'm thinking Kona coast....maybe Maui....I'm already sick of the rain....power went out last night for 4 hours....

Always dude, I'm a no retreat no surrender kinda guy, if worst comes to worst and it takes another 5 years to crack this I'll still be going and if it's not working I'll change it but I really think it is, at the moment, tomorrow we'll see, trading hey!!

Sounds good on the holiday, wish I had that kinda money a week off in the sun is required at the moment, I've reached the so tired my eyes are barely working stage bloody work and other hassles, LIFE!!

Atleast it's the weekend, ohhh I'm going to be working for most of it SUCKS!!!


You'll get there as previously said you'll get there, sadly 1 of a few on this site which will do!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #487
  • Nov 6, 2009 4:24pm Nov 6, 2009 4:24pm
From myfxbook for the week - always instructive to look at the stats, for some reason can't get the graph to size to the scaled-out page, but:

173 total trades, 58 long/115 short. 74% hit rate. Just 35/day - probably around 10-15 per hour.

largest win = 26 pips, largest loss = 20 pips

avg win = 1.8 pips; avg loss = 3 pips

95.6 pips gained on the week. Actual account increase of 13.4%.

avg loss size is skewed by that 20-pipper, which was an "emergency" SL that got spiked - and it was a 1/2-sized trade, as well. But even discounting that, a 74% hit rate with a 1.8:3.0 winner/loser ratio gives a positive expectancy.

75% hit rate is about where I'm at from the beginning of the live Oanda account.

Lots of small winners in the week because I was playing with scalping the 10s charts for a couple days there.

So....I need to look for larger winners. Keep that hit rate at 75% or above but bring the avg winner size up to surpass the avg. loser. Risk management was OK but there's always room for improvement there, too. 13.4% for week, 2.7% per day, nothing to be ashamed of. All I'm trying to do now though in truth is to prove that I can adhere to a general approach to trading and to MM in particular, not get distracted, not make those account-killing mistakes.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #488
  • Nov 6, 2009 4:40pm Nov 6, 2009 4:40pm
Quoting The Fool
From myfxbook for the week - always instructive to look at the stats, for some reason can't get the graph to size to the scaled-out page, but:

173 total trades, 58 long/115 short. 74% hit rate. Just 35/day - probably around 10-15 per hour.

largest win = 26 pips, largest loss = 20 pips

avg win = 1.8 pips; avg loss = 3 pips

95.6 pips gained on the week. Actual account increase of 13.4%.

avg loss size is skewed by that 20-pipper, which was an "emergency" SL that got spiked - and it was a 1/2-sized trade, as well....

173 LOL thats more trades than I've made all year I think!!


I had to check the maths on the win rate, on that win % you could go to 5.1pips per loser and still reach break even.

Although I'd be looking to increase my win rate, if this is currently working for you and it's making enough pips and therefore $$$'s ( keep upping the lots ) then if it's not broke why fix it ?? maybe ??
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #489
  • Nov 6, 2009 7:06pm Nov 6, 2009 7:06pm
Quoting Turveyd
Although I'd be looking to increase my win rate, if this is currently working for you and it's making enough pips and therefore $$$'s ( keep upping the lots ) then if it's not broke why fix it ?? maybe ??
Yup. This is where I'm gonna live but there will always be room for improvements.

Obvious ones to focus on will include:

- cut out the stray outsized losers completely - airtight risk management.
- cultivate a little more patience & up the winner avg. size. Going off the M1/M5 charts will help there, have done it before with avg. winner more like 4-5 pips
- trade more breakouts for much larger winners. This is really the nugget I am working on.

Lots of small trades for easy but small gains and a steady diet of breakout winners. That's the meat & 50 veg approach.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #490
  • Nov 7, 2009 8:16am Nov 7, 2009 8:16am
Hi, Fool,

Thanks a lot for your detailed inputs. Your 74% winning rate is impressive. Yesterday I tried this strategy, but only got about 40% winning rate. I know I over-traded as an experiment (made about 20~30 trade per hour).

One thing that is still not very clear to me, is how to pick top/bottom with better accuracy. I thought hard about your execution. It seems to me in most case you only leave very tight room for the PA to run. If it goes against you, you close it quickly. This means you have to pick entries very very close to the top/bottom in order to success.

Think about it. With 0.9 pip spread, once it runs another 1 pip into red, you would be ready to pull the plug. Because if you do not do it fast, when you close it, maybe another pip or more would be added to the loss.

Another thing I like to ask is, since in most cases you don't let the PA to hurt you with more than 2~3 pip losses, would it be better to just use 2~3pip SL once you enter the market? I ask this because this is what I wanted to do, but not sure if it is a right way.

You also mentioned, sometime when you close out with small losses, you might jump back in right away. When do you normally do this?

Again, thank a lot.
  • #491
  • Nov 7, 2009 12:58pm Nov 7, 2009 12:58pm
Quoting The Fool
Yup. This is where I'm gonna live but there will always be room for improvements.

Obvious ones to focus on will include:

- cut out the stray outsized losers completely - airtight risk management.
- cultivate a little more patience & up the winner avg. size. Going off the M1/M5 charts will help there, have done it before with avg. winner more like 4-5 pips
- trade more breakouts for much larger winners. This is really the nugget I am working on.

Lots of small trades for easy but small gains and a steady diet of breakout winners. That's the...

M5 charts, NO DUDE!!!! thats a tad too far, have you experimented / looked at S30 or something, M1's abit to little detail for what sounds like your style ( micro trend player ) so maybe S20 or S30 might work better ??

Your ability to do 30 ish trades per day ( 2 - 3 hours ) amazed me, 3 - 4 MAX for me then I'm burnt out and call it a day seriously.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #492
  • Nov 7, 2009 2:03pm Nov 7, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting odt101
One thing that is still not very clear to me, is how to pick top/bottom with better accuracy. I thought hard about your execution. It seems to me in most case you only leave very tight room for the PA to run. If it goes against you, you close it quickly. This means you have to pick entries very very close to the top/bottom in order to success.

Think about it. With 0.9 pip spread, once it runs another 1 pip into red, you would be ready to pull the plug. Because if you do not do it fast, when you close it, maybe another pip or more would be added...
You do not have to pick a trendlet top exactly - you can wait for the trendlet change to begin and then enter. Lots of screen time with a given pair will educate you about how the PA tends to move.

[/quote]Another thing I like to ask is, since in most cases you don't let the PA to hurt you with more than 2~3 pip losses, would it be better to just use 2~3pip SL once you enter the market? I ask this because this is what I wanted to do, but not sure if it is a right way.

You also mentioned, sometime when you close out with small losses, you might jump back in right away. When do you normally do this?
[/quote]

I don't use a sl like that because at times I will sense that PA is going against me and then I will manually stop out for a smaller loss.

If you are trading in ranging PA then a hazard is the break-out. A break-out moving against your position would stop you out, of course. But break-outs are opportunities for larger wins, so if you get caught going against a break-out, then its best not to fight it, definitely do not add to that losing position, but get out and trade with the break-out.


Aaah, but what about false break-outs? Yup, that can happen. You could enter in hopes of catching a ride on the break-out only to get stopped again.

I tend to scalp in the direction of the overall trend in hopes of catching break-outs into that trend.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #493
  • Nov 7, 2009 2:07pm Nov 7, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting Turveyd
M5 charts, NO DUDE!!!! thats a tad too far, have you experimented / looked at S30 or something, M1's abit to little detail for what sounds like your style ( micro trend player ) so maybe S20 or S30 might work better ??
I see the timeframes as wholly transferrable, relative to the volatility of the PA. An M5 chart can look the same as a 30s chart. It boils down to one's psychology and how long one is willing to be exposed. For me, for now anyway, shorter is better.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #494
  • Nov 7, 2009 2:19pm Nov 7, 2009 2:19pm
Quoting The Fool
I see the timeframes as wholly transferrable, relative to the volatility of the PA. An M5 chart can look the same as a 30s chart. It boils down to one's psychology and how long one is willing to be exposed. For me, for now anyway, shorter is better.....

After the event the all look the same kinda, even W1 charts it's just the quick bursts of buying / selling ie micro trends don't last more than 2 - 3 mins most of the time which is what your playing, your seeing buyers need some kinda S/R level getting in and hoping they move it enough.

You can still see the price moving and call it entirely off that with no visible chart data, but prior detail is good!!

M1 only works for me, with a M15 I vaguely check to see the over all day in 1 hit, Keep it Simple dude!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #495
  • Nov 7, 2009 2:36pm Nov 7, 2009 2:36pm
its not hard making 4% daily on forex.only you should follow your method and have good money managment.
i doubled my accounts for months.around 6 months.
i can show my account if need proof.
  • #496
  • Nov 7, 2009 2:42pm Nov 7, 2009 2:42pm
Quoting Hb1363
its not hard making 4% daily on forex.only you should follow your method and have good money managment.
i doubled my accounts for months.around 6 months.
i can show my account if need proof.
Good job!

What you can do with a small account you may not be able to duplicate with a larger account, though.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #497
  • Nov 7, 2009 2:52pm Nov 7, 2009 2:52pm
Quoting The Fool
You do not have to pick a trendlet top exactly - you can wait for the trendlet change to begin and then enter. Lots of screen time with a given pair will educate you about how the PA tends to move.
This makes sense. I should master this technique.

Thanks a lot Fool.
  • #498
  • Nov 7, 2009 3:17pm Nov 7, 2009 3:17pm
why not? best way to dubled account is small account with balance 2,3k.
work one or tow months on it and then withdrow funds and then start again.this is best why i understand.
normal & big accounts have another history for working and double.

Quoting The Fool
Good job!

What you can do with a small account you may not be able to duplicate with a larger account, though.....
  • #499
  • Nov 7, 2009 3:46pm Nov 7, 2009 3:46pm
Quoting Hb1363
why not? best way to dubled account is small account with balance 2,3k.
work one or tow months on it and then withdrow funds and then start again.this is best why i understand.
normal & big accounts have another history for working and double.

That sounds like a good plan - stay under the radar. If you start doubling your 6-figure accounts every month or two your spot broker will be done with you.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #500
  • Nov 7, 2009 4:32pm Nov 7, 2009 4:32pm
Quoting The Fool
That sounds like a good plan - stay under the radar. If you start doubling your 6-figure accounts every month or two your spot broker will be done with you.

Wouldn't that be typical, your broker cancels your account and passes your details onto to all the other spot brokers, have to start using your mates to open accounts for you just to keep making a living.


The dream is to get there then worry about it
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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