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  • #7,321
  • Nov 6, 2009 3:24am Nov 6, 2009 3:24am
Quoting Blackeagle
And one last suggestion, try not to use too many DSRIs on your chart. At the moment, attached is what I have, clean eh? Hope this helps.
Well for me that chart helped a lot, DSRI hadn't really clicked until I reviewed your chart...so many things are clear now...thanks once again.
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #7,322
  • Nov 6, 2009 4:44am Nov 6, 2009 4:44am
I've been trading for years with mixed results, and generally not very well. However I think I'm maturing in my attitude to FX. One thing I've realised is that systems don't work.

By a system I mean a set of rules, for example; if price crosses above MA and QQE is above zero then go long. Systems don't work for long because as we know the market changes from day to day. This is also why robots don't work either, they simply aren't dynamic enough.

I think that a trader only needs to be able to do two things; interpret the market sentiment correctly within the time-frame(s) that they are using and identify a safe place to enter and leave the market according to that sentiment.

I'm tempted to place a buy stop above 1.6800 on cable, but how can we know that NFP is going to give the market the necessary momentum to break above this level? We can't, so we must wait and see and react according to that outcome later today and in the days or weeks that follow.

I think Strat is not teaching us a system here, he's showing us how to look at the market without prejudice.

Great thread, keep it coming.
My brain hurts!
  • #7,323
  • Nov 6, 2009 10:12am Nov 6, 2009 10:12am
Alexandra
Did you leave the stops on your 90000 lots in a really obvious place again?
Good thing is we can buy it cheaper ...
  • #7,324
  • Nov 6, 2009 12:14pm Nov 6, 2009 12:14pm
Quoting strat
Exactly right, mstandifer! No standing in the corner with a Dunce hat on for you.
In my use, they are more valuable than Dow, Gann, Elliott and Fibonacci COMBINED!
Thank you, Strat. That's a relief.


Quoting Blackeagle
It becomes old when price does not respect it anymore. But this issue is really subjective, it may be old for me but not for someone else.

And one last suggestion, try not to use too many DSRIs on your chart. At the moment, attached is what I have, clean eh? Hope this helps.
Thank you, Blackeagle. That was exactly the information I was looking for.
  • #7,325
  • Nov 6, 2009 12:37pm Nov 6, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting mstandifer
Thank you, Strat. That's a relief.




Thank you, Blackeagle. That was exactly the information I was looking for.
Sorry Mstandifer - I wasn't very clear with my explanation. I agree with you about TLs and DRSI being two different things. What I meant was that a line that joins extremes, to me, is just a trend line. A DSRI line would be where price had acted around that line and its acted (the line) as both support and resistance. I noted some people had been confused and referred to TLs on their charts as DSRI - which in most cases is untrue as they are just acting as either support or resistance NOT dynamic and tested etc from the other side.

Sorry for my lack of clarity in my post, I was trying to show just that!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #7,326
  • Edited 1:49pm Nov 6, 2009 1:48pm | Edited 1:49pm
Post #6589 - just thought I'd follow up on this cadyen trade to update if anyone was following. The double top bear flag went on to produce a nice trade from the BEOB on 20 Oct 09. The 3 green candles before the BEOB gave the momentum away as did the (only just) lower high bear flag.

PA has now touched the up trend line from the lows so this would be a good place to take off half of the trade. I moved my stop (red dotted line) to the last swing high at the descending TL from the boss chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #7,327
  • Nov 6, 2009 2:07pm Nov 6, 2009 2:07pm
This is the best forex factory thread so I will post here more often

I went long on AUD/USD.

Price has hit support at 0.90 and has respected the DSRI line, also with the trend and has a nice space all way up to 0.94
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  • #7,328
  • Nov 6, 2009 2:09pm Nov 6, 2009 2:09pm
I also have an instinct with GBP/USD, I think next week we will see the 1.66 broken for more upside. Will wait for more more confrmation to see wether my gut instinct is right
  • #7,329
  • Nov 6, 2009 5:53pm Nov 6, 2009 5:53pm
Quoting elitejets
Alexandra
Did you leave the stops on your 90000 lots in a really obvious place again?
Good thing is we can buy it cheaper ...

LOL - Nope. Someone did though - that smacked of a Friday runoff, didn't it! I'm in until that right shoulder falls. Starting to tap my foot though. At some point, we should have enough run to buy some Saki for everyone on this thread! Patience and long term analysis will prevail.

I did add some E/J on a weekly close (as you rightly suggested) off the big fat support.
  • #7,330
  • Nov 6, 2009 9:28pm Nov 6, 2009 9:28pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
Pretty cool example of how important daily closes are.
Another step on The Path for you, young man!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,331
  • Nov 7, 2009 3:42am Nov 7, 2009 3:42am
Quoting strat
[font=Arial][size=2]The following web page plays a great...
Hi Strat,

I'm dilligently working through your excellent thread post by post reading and trying to understand, thankyou all.

The Mark Douglas video link was broken I have found an alternative.

http://www.4shared.com/file/96740657...er_Market.html

Thanks again.
  • #7,332
  • Nov 7, 2009 4:06am Nov 7, 2009 4:06am
Hey Strat,
Thanks for this great thread. Also thanks for the great writing style and sense of humour you weave through your posts. It's truly refreshing.
I'd like to point out the obvious and stress it once again: This is not only a stress free trading method, it's the only trading method that works.

The way you lay out the plan and present truths as truths and lies as lies is what all readers on FF should take at heart. Indicators lag. Always.
I don't know if I'm out of line here, but there's a great book I'd like to recommend to everybody and to people who are new to price action in particular. It's written by Steve Nison and it's called 'Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques'. Google it and you'll probably run into a PDF that's available online, once you get the picture and find it helpfull you should simply buy it for reference.

It's a must-read for every trader who wants to take his trading up a notch and NO I'm not employed at the publisher. Once again, Strat, thanks for this thread for it's the one that will keep a lot of traders out of the busy Crosstown Traffic.
  • #7,333
  • Nov 7, 2009 4:29am Nov 7, 2009 4:29am
Quoting Cjn
Hey Strat,
It's written by Steve Nison and it's called 'Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques'.
I've just finished to read the index, i will start to read the whole thread now.

I know that Strat mentioned this book and others by Pring but it would be great if we have a bibliography

I've analyzed the trades i've made last week and i've already spotted some errors.

Thank you Strat
  • #7,334
  • Nov 7, 2009 5:49am Nov 7, 2009 5:49am
Browsing some Forex/FTSE 100 correlations this morning on Sharescope - some interesting finds. The 'FTSE100 relative to...' line is the thin green line.
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #7,335
  • Nov 7, 2009 7:19am Nov 7, 2009 7:19am
Quoting Grimweasel
Browsing some Forex/FTSE 100 correlations this morning on Sharescope - some interesting finds. The 'FTSE100 relative to...' line is the thin green line.
Could you explain a bit further please Grim. Charts can be fascinating but I am not sure what the implication of these FTSE100/Forex ones are for our trading.

I'm only one step along the Path so need a bit more elucidation. Sorry!
  • #7,336
  • Edited 7:41am Nov 7, 2009 7:36am | Edited 7:41am
If I was going Long on this one, where would the stop go?

1. Below the 14820 SR line and the 20 MA which is also the Low of Friday's bear candle, so 2 points below the shadow of the candle.

2. Or below the SR line at 14720, 61% Fib and therefore 2 points below the shadow of Wednesday's bull candle.

3. Or indeed somewhere else entirely?

As I am trying to only take *** trades, I will wait for PA confirmation of the resumption of the UT, but...... the question still remains and advice from experienced traders would be helpful. Generally I tend to put Stops below/above the candle shadow/wick depending on whether I want to go long or short. I take note of SR lines and may choose to put the Stop below/above one if close to a candle, but generally this increases the Risk enormously. But is this right? It makes a big difference for the size of risk of course and therefore for the R:R and trade size or even possibility.

And may be 2 points is not enough. I think I have read that Strat uses 7 points. Any advance on 7??
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  • #7,337
  • Nov 7, 2009 8:55am Nov 7, 2009 8:55am
Quoting Lotuselanman
If I was going Long on this one, where would the stop go?
You might want to reconsider going long altogether. I notice a doji and a spinning top, also price has been testing 23.6% numerous times. From the looks of the EU, you might consider looking for a short below the low of the spinning top. If however I wanted to go long, I'd put my SL below friday's low about 10 pips. Should it set a lower low, you can always reconsider a new entry based on PA at hand. But again, like you said, wait for confirmation. Just my 2 cents.
  • #7,338
  • Nov 7, 2009 11:01am Nov 7, 2009 11:01am
Quoting Lotuselanman
Could you explain a bit further please Grim. Charts can be fascinating but I am not sure what the implication of these FTSE100/Forex ones are for our trading.

I'm only one step along the Path so need a bit more elucidation. Sorry!
Nothing to trade from 'per se' but shows that some currency pairs have a habit of following the indices and some are inverse. When the two meet (as with Brazilian Real) then something usually happens. Will they bounce away or just carry on thru each other? Time and charts will tell - just for info really.

Usdyen is looking like it's trying to build a base. We have had a double bottom and last weeks inverted hammer could be a sign of bullish activity. I think Alexandra has been in there buying up lots!

After a strong TL break north and then a HL test that PA has retraced into for a test of the double bottom I'm waiting for solid PA to get long.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #7,339
  • Nov 7, 2009 11:45am Nov 7, 2009 11:45am
Hey Strat,
Just a quick clarification on PASR.

Small aside: I was fortunate enough to study under a great chemist whilst working at a firm up here. He would smile at my questions and quite often point out that I was very focused on the bark of one particular tree. He would then tell me to step back and have a look at the forest (system) to put my particular question in context. I do this in trading by looking at the larger time frames.

He also had an analogy about wearing a particular set of “glasses” He would often say (regarding a particular case) that I had the wrong set of "glasses" on (Quantum vs Newtonian) and I would like to relate this to the study of blind breakouts vs. PASR

After reviewing many of your chart posts which asked us what would we do in certain chart situations, I realized that I was a bit confused as I always seemed to have my breakout “glasses” on. This bugged me for a while as my S&R (although I try to get them as close as I can to Blackeagle’s) always had variance due to my broker’s data. Then I realized how dangerous trading blind breakouts were as my S&R may not correspond to the “Merchant Wankers” or hedge funds so it was really risky to buy/sell a small break of the S&R.

That being said, a better opportunity to buy/sell the test often arises as getting in 100 or so pips after the fact kills the R:R. I assume this is what you mean when you say “let PA show the way” as I was also thinking of PA in terms of breakout candles although on re-inspection all the PA that is mentioned rebounds off S&R (DSRI breaks usually also coincide with S&R action). Are these the right “glasses” to be looking at the charts with?

I apologize if I’ve got it mixed up or am stating the obvious. Thanks for your time. Cheers.

John
Finally out of the shadows.
  • #7,340
  • Nov 7, 2009 3:36pm Nov 7, 2009 3:36pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Browsing some Forex/FTSE 100 correlations this morning on Sharescope - some interesting finds. The 'FTSE100 relative to...' line is the thin green line.
OK. So now you have wasted your time and energy on this, what will you do with this information?

How will this help you be more successful and profitable trading forex?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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