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Trading aud/nzd successfully

  • #1,901
  • Sep 15, 2009 9:46am Sep 15, 2009 9:46am
Quoting stratman
Hi Bob,

I recently read that you have a new EA based on BB that can be used for AUDNZD ... do you have a download link for this?

cheers, stratman
Go to
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=150293
The first post has the newest update for the 40MA BB.
  • #1,902
  • Sep 15, 2009 5:17pm Sep 15, 2009 5:17pm
Hello.
I've been demo testing this EA for a few months with good results.
I've read a some posts about this EA not working on NFA registered brokers like IBFX. What's the reason for this EA not working on those brokers?
I understand this EA opens either buy or sell orders if price is above or below the MA but does not open buy and sell at the same time
Am i correct?

Thanks in advance
  • #1,903
  • Sep 15, 2009 8:13pm Sep 15, 2009 8:13pm
Quoting armandog
Hello.
I've been demo testing this EA for a few months with good results.
I've read a some posts about this EA not working on NFA registered brokers like IBFX. What's the reason for this EA not working on those brokers?
I understand this EA opens either buy or sell orders if price is above or below the MA but does not open buy and sell at the same time
Am i correct?

Thanks in advance

There are two major EAs in this forum. One is a hedging EA that trades both directions at the same time. That one can no longer be used with a USA broker but can be used with others. I no longer use it even though it was one of my most profitable. If you stay away from major aud/nzd news stories it does well.

The other one which you mention is the one I use now. But I use the 180x100 version which is found in the 60x90 thread. It, the one you mentioned and the 40MA BB are all basically the same EA with different entrances and TP but they are the same trading philosophy. You enter the trade at some point away from the MA. They should all work with a USA broker. So good luck and let me know if you have any more problems.
  • #1,904
  • Oct 7, 2009 3:58am Oct 7, 2009 3:58am
Hi Bob,

I am going through your threads and I have just ran a demo this week on the 35x20.

The only change I placed was :
max trades = 15
stop loss = 400

I only used the above changes, but all the other standard settings. However, I let it run all non-stop all week.

I was caught out by the AUD trade balance and cash rate the other night, but the correct retracement came in this morning, closing my trades at 11 levels.

The maximum drawdown was $-4838.18, based on lot size 0.05

My next step is to try to close it just before US open. But using discretion makes it is tricky as you do not know if your drawdown is going to get worse or get better. You said you sometime close a few minutes before or after, or it could be whole hours.

Should I just pick a time, and close all positions, even if they are at a loss? Even if I look at the pair and try to judge SR, I cannot decide to pull the trigger using discretion. I think I am going to have to pick a time and stick with it - lol - Could you clarify your psychological thought processes that go through your mind at the point of making a decision to close the trades ?
Just for today, do not worry...
  • #1,905
  • Oct 8, 2009 2:14am Oct 8, 2009 2:14am
Quoting faxfxfx
Hi Bob,

I am going through your threads and I have just ran a demo this week on the 35x20.

The only change I placed was :
max trades = 15
stop loss = 400

I only used the above changes, but...
I dont trade that many levels because with real money I would not trade that way. We would not trade the AUD or NZD interest rate days because they can push price outside of the EA. The US session is not the real problem with that pair but the AUD session when there is news. Because I cant trade both ways (hedging) I am using one of my regular EAs with this pair. 100x180 or the 60x90. If you want to trade the aud/nzd it will stay within a 150-200 pip range almost all the time except on big news days. So if you trade this pair watch the news days they are the killers.
  • #1,906
  • Oct 15, 2009 5:41am Oct 15, 2009 5:41am
Hi Bob,

I just wanted to say a big thanks for your generosity in sharing your systems.

I've spent the last few days trawling the threads of the 60x90 and aud/nzd EA systems you've created, which are very interesting. I am demoing a 60x90 setup, and today I will start a AUD/NZD demo. I'll post some results as and when available.

Off the top of my head, I had wondered if it's possible to link the pip buying distance to a daily ATR reading. In this way, when volatility reduces, the system would take entries at a closer distance to the MA 80. Currently the trading distance is 80 pips, e.g. in theory the pip distance could be reduced to 60 (for arguments sake) when ATR drops. Just a thought, as it's something I would love to test, but I have to learn to code first!

@ NoNoodles (post 1894)- I have backtested AUD/NZD with a 150pip SL and it is not ideal, as when a trade reaches level 5, the level 1 entry only has 50 pips breathing room. If the SL is hit, level 1 will close, and close all the other levels with it. But, I backtested to May 1st with a 200pip SL, and this situation never occured trading 24/7, so it appears price needed a little more headroom. However before May the market would have hammered you regardless, and on multiple occassions.

Good trading.
  • #1,907
  • Oct 15, 2009 8:36am Oct 15, 2009 8:36am
Quoting Geofract
Hi Bob,

I just wanted to say a big thanks for your generosity in sharing your systems.

I've spent the last few days trawling the threads of the 60x90 and aud/nzd EA systems you've created, which are very interesting. I am demoing a 60x90 setup, and today I will start a AUD/NZD demo. I'll post some results as and when available.

Off the top of my head, I had wondered if it's possible to link the pip buying distance to a daily ATR reading. In this way, when volatility reduces, the system would take entries at a closer distance to the MA 80....
I believe your idea of the 60x60 would work very well with the aud/nzd, the third level would be 180 pips from center and for that pair that is a long ways away. I am demoing that with some good success so far. I also am testing it with some other currencies and am trying to come up with a list of 3-5 currencies you could set it and forget. Since hedging is banned in the USA for a trading technique I have not kept up with this thread as much. Live trading I am using the 180x100 which does a nice job catching the 50 pip crossings on the 20MA 4H. Works safely with this pair. If I come up with something that really bangs out the pips, I will let you know but I would not know how to ATR that formula. I am not a real big fan of the ATR.
  • #1,908
  • Nov 5, 2009 8:52pm Nov 5, 2009 8:52pm
Seems like this pair has been climbing steadily. I wonder when it's going to head back down again .....
  • #1,909
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:03pm Nov 5, 2009 9:03pm
Quoting Schminner
Seems like this pair has been climbing steadily. I wonder when it's going to head back down again .....
The raised its interest rate and the NZD did not. So it will move up for a while, but it should still bounce around like normal as it moves up
  • #1,910
  • Nov 6, 2009 6:36am Nov 6, 2009 6:36am
Hi Nanningbob
Firstly I must say I have really been impressed with your comments and contribution to the various threads.
A quick question for you...which site do you use to get the interst rate and other news etc on the AUD and/or the NZD dollars in a timely manner?

Thanks fo your response
  • #1,911
  • Nov 6, 2009 8:46am Nov 6, 2009 8:46am
Quoting Roehampton47
Hi Nanningbob
Firstly I must say I have really been impressed with your comments and contribution to the various threads.
A quick question for you...which site do you use to get the interst rate and other news etc on the AUD and/or the NZD dollars in a timely manner?

Thanks fo your response
They are posted every week on the FF calendar. So you know they are coming. As far as getting the news fast enough to trade it, I dont know, but if I see price suddenly jump that is a pretty good sign the traders are on the move. I have never found a news service fast enough and then read it, and then understand its meaning. By the time I get all of the that digested most of the move is over unless there are long term significance. Again the most dangerous part of interest rate stories is not necessarily the change of the interest rate but the follow up news stories and comments which aren't on the calendar. That is what to fear. See this post in my 4H trading system:
p. 40 post #599 Why interest rate stories are so difficult to trade and why I dont like to trade them.
  • #1,912
  • Nov 8, 2009 2:40pm Nov 8, 2009 2:40pm
Does anyone know if IBFX will reduce their leverage to 100:1 soon?

Also, the spread on this pair with IBFX has improved lately .....
  • #1,913
  • Nov 9, 2009 9:05pm Nov 9, 2009 9:05pm
Dear Customer,

Thank you for contacting us regarding new margin requirements. Beginning November 29, 2009, any clients who have a leverage higher than 100:1 will have their leverage lowered to 100:1 as per the NFA's new rule regarding margin requirements.

We will also send out more information to clients that may be affected by this as we get closer to the deadline.

If you have any further questions, feel free to contact us anytime.

Kind Regards,
Carl Gierisch
Interbank FX
  • #1,914
  • Nov 21, 2009 10:48am Nov 21, 2009 10:48am
Hi,
I did not read the all thread , so maybe someone already said that:
why would you trade aud/nzd with 14-20 pips spread when you can trade aud/usd + nzd/usd simultaneously with ratio of 1:1.2 to neutralize the dollar.
For example instead buying 1 lot of aud/nzd you buy 1 lot aud/usd and sell 1.2 lot nzd/usd - it will be exactly the same , but you are doing it with spread of 3-4 pips instead 14-20 pips.
skype, facebook: fxzebra
  • #1,915
  • Nov 21, 2009 11:36am Nov 21, 2009 11:36am
Quoting fx345
Hi,
I did not read the all thread , so maybe someone already said that:
why would you trade aud/nzd with 14-20 pips spread when you can trade aud/usd + nzd/usd simultaneously with ratio of 1:1.2 to neutralize the dollar.
For example instead buying 1 lot of aud/nzd you buy 1 lot aud/usd and sell 1.2 lot nzd/usd - it will be exactly the same , but you are doing it with spread of 3-4 pips instead 14-20 pips.
i think that's 6-8 pips spread if you have 2 trades.
the markets moving, time to get in!
  • #1,916
  • Nov 21, 2009 12:18pm Nov 21, 2009 12:18pm
Quoting dmjservices
i think that's 6-8 pips spread if you have 2 trades.
if you buy 1 lot of eur/usd with spread 2 pips , and then you buy another lot of eur /usd with same spread of 2 pips - is your spread 4 pips because it is 2 trades? No - your spread is still 2 pips.

On aud/usd and on nzd/usd most brokers give spread of 3-4 pips , so if you trade both currencies at same time your spread is average of aud/usd and nzd/usd spreads and it is much less than spread of aud/nzd that most brokers will give you.
Even if you say it's 6-8 pips - it is still less than 12-14 , so why leave extra pips on broker's table?
skype, facebook: fxzebra
  • #1,917
  • Nov 22, 2009 11:08am Nov 22, 2009 11:08am
Quoting fx345
if you buy 1 lot of eur/usd with spread 2 pips , and then you buy another lot of eur /usd with same spread of 2 pips - is your spread 4 pips because it is 2 trades? No - your spread is still 2 pips.

On aud/usd and on nzd/usd most brokers give spread of 3-4 pips , so if you trade both currencies at same time your spread is average of aud/usd and nzd/usd spreads and it is much less than spread of aud/nzd that most brokers will give you.
Even if you say it's 6-8 pips - it is still less than 12-14 , so why leave extra pips on broker's table?
My broker IAMfx only has a 5 pip spread but the aud/nzd has had me in a p/l since Oct 8th where the aud/usd only had me in a p/l for 2 weeks and I made a profit. I am never trading the aud/nzd or the eur/chf as even though they have tighter ranges they range so slowly that you will die of boredom until they go the other way
  • #1,918
  • Nov 22, 2009 8:01pm Nov 22, 2009 8:01pm
Quoting fx345
Hi,
I did not read the all thread , so maybe someone already said that:
why would you trade aud/nzd with 14-20 pips spread when you can trade aud/usd + nzd/usd simultaneously with ratio of 1:1.2 to neutralize the dollar.
For example instead buying 1 lot of aud/nzd you buy 1 lot aud/usd and sell 1.2 lot nzd/usd - it will be exactly the same , but you are doing it with spread of 3-4 pips instead 14-20 pips.
That is simple, they dont move the same. The logic is wrong, how the nzd and aud move as a pair has nothing to do with how they move against the USD. It simply is not the same trade. The AUD/NZD will always retrace within a 150 pip range unless there is a news or fundamental acting on them. The key to trading them is not the trending but their constant up and down movement with that 150 pip range. Very profitable if you can hedge both ways. The USA has banned hedging so I cant trade that way anymore but it was the most profitable EA I have ever had.
  • #1,919
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:06am Nov 23, 2009 6:06am
Quoting nanningbob
That is simple, they dont move the same. The logic is wrong, how the nzd and aud move as a pair has nothing to do with how they move against the USD. It simply is not the same trade. .
Bob...I MUST be missing something..
Given the basic math involved and the active involvement in currency arbitrage by some large specialists..I am flummoxed by your comments above.
But then Ive not your experience with this pair.

Can you please explain how this can be?
  • #1,920
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:48pm Nov 23, 2009 7:48pm
Quoting cliffedwards
Bob...I MUST be missing something..
Given the basic math involved and the active involvement in currency arbitrage by some large specialists..I am flummoxed by your comments above.
But then Ive not your experience with this pair.

Can you please explain how this can be?
Why is this hard to understand? When you match the aud/nzd with each other they are based on trades between those two countries. The exchange rate between them. That has nothing to do with trading with the USA. When the exchange rate is set between the USA and Aud that is not the same as the trading products with USA and NZD and Aus. with NZ. They are separate countries and separate currencies. How trade functions between the USA and NZ and USA with Australia is no where the same as trade between NZ and Australia. So how the currencies react and move will not be the same. The logic is flawed and is based on not understanding how Forex works. Forex is not about trading like commodities, stock market etc. It is banks, govt. and businesses exchanging money after business deals, loans, transactions, etc. It is not about traders. To research this matter see my opening post page 1 post 1 at my 60x90 thread. Dark Star did an excellent explanation of what the Forex really is. The vast host of traders do not understand the market they are trading therefore they lose money.
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