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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #9,761
  • Nov 6, 2009 3:37am Nov 6, 2009 3:37am
on this, and someone else asked me about close and that trend lines based on close would give differing trend lines etc.


strat, is another respected trader on FF (in my opinion there are only 3 gurus on here, Strat, Jacko, and J16) and Strat swear's by the close of the candle and draws trend lines thru them.

i use high and lows for trendlines but also look at closes on trend lines. for me, if a candle has pierced a trend line however deep, but then closes near, above/below the trend line, then that piercing does not really matter. i would want to see a close of say 50-100 points below the trend line to start thinking of a break of trend line.


Quoting bluehorizon
good point... as coscorp pointed out, i guess the close is important and should maybe have a clue to get out of that trade.
  • #9,762
  • Nov 6, 2009 4:55am Nov 6, 2009 4:55am
Quoting coolshades
on this, and someone else asked me about close and that trend lines based on close would give differing trend lines etc.


strat, is another respected trader on FF (in my opinion there are only 3 gurus on here, Strat, Jacko, and J16) and Strat swear's by the close of the candle and draws trend lines thru them.

i use high and lows for trendlines but also look at closes on trend lines. for me, if a candle has pierced a trend line however deep, but then closes near, above/below the trend line, then that piercing does not really matter. i would want...
You've missed one of the 'big dogs' out; Steve(BRV), although tbh he doesn't post very often these days.
And I completely agree re the piercing of TL's. There are too many people who start 'calling' a trend change every time the wind changes direction. It's unnecessary, presumptive and unsound. Picking market tops and bottoms is a mugs game, and the quickest road to an empty account.
  • #9,763
  • Nov 6, 2009 4:58am Nov 6, 2009 4:58am
Quoting daringdave
Interceptor, can you put more explanations to explain your charts. I see them but would like some descriptions to explain them
Will do in future.
  • #9,764
  • Nov 6, 2009 8:36am Nov 6, 2009 8:36am
14700 looking good to go long imho, next week tuesday around 11.00 gmt
student
  • #9,765
  • Nov 6, 2009 10:20am Nov 6, 2009 10:20am
please elaborate...
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,766
  • Nov 6, 2009 11:48am Nov 6, 2009 11:48am
Not to go over "old" trades....but did anybody notice the 8h pinbar formed on the 4h charts between 1.4700 - 1.4600? That alone would give a good idea + confidence to take the trade without too much confusion as to "is the trend changing sentiment" sort of thinking....

Just a humble observation

Have a great weekend folks!
  • #9,767
  • Nov 6, 2009 5:53pm Nov 6, 2009 5:53pm
Quoting forexmick
The reason I joined jackos group is because I did not want a signal seller who only sends out random trade signals. I wanted a professional trader and I wanted to see his system and know that he had his money on the trade. I wanted to find a profesional trader who put his balls on the line with his trades that I could ask questions.
Yes Mick. That is what makes jacko different from all the rest. A successful professional trader who is a consistent harvester of the pips over a long time who is prepared to help other traders. And a genuine nice person who a great teacher and is very easy to learn from.
  • #9,768
  • Edited 4:02am Nov 7, 2009 3:22am | Edited 4:02am
anyone care to venture what the market will bring on monday?
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,769
  • Nov 7, 2009 4:07am Nov 7, 2009 4:07am
Quoting bluehorizon
coolshades...could you explain a bit please. I thought that jacko was drawing his TL's off the lows/highs, not the closes.

As you suggest, if ones looks at the closes, the TL at 1.4700 was never really broken on a daily chart. (that bar that shot down to 1.4625 closed at 1.4716)
Further to this - what Strat is using on the closes isn't a TL but a DSRI - the 2 are in fact different for him.

TL's are drawn off the HH and LL whereas DSRI are drawn off the close of the candle . This in his experience offers a far better view of what is happening - as they are not subject to stop hunting or news spikes or other stuff the big dogs can pull especially in moments of low liquidity.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,770
  • Nov 7, 2009 9:11am Nov 7, 2009 9:11am
Basically the daily chart tells me to be bullish. On the 4h, that I have attached: the dotted lines, that I have plotted , represent S/R levels. Now the two lines that i will be paying close attention are the 0.4800 and .4750, because they have proven their role as S/R. Locked between them is the .50 fib from last swing low and high on the daily. Now i will watch PA in this area for possible long, preferably .4750.
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  • #9,771
  • Nov 7, 2009 10:46am Nov 7, 2009 10:46am
Has anyone been playing the gap fills when the market opens. The last 3 weeks there have been huge gap fills in multiple currencies. I would like to make a play this week but usually when something happens 3 times I do it on the forth time and it fails.

Any advise would be appreciated
  • #9,772
  • Nov 7, 2009 11:04am Nov 7, 2009 11:04am
Quoting nhtrading
Has anyone been playing the gap fills when the market opens. The last 3 weeks there have been huge gap fills in multiple currencies. I would like to make a play this week but usually when something happens 3 times I do it on the forth time and it fails.

Any advise would be appreciated
What gaps??I don't see no stinking gaps....

Playing the "gaps" as it is called is about as predictable as playing in the middle of the Autobahn. In the dark. Blindfolded. It's not a question of if you will get hurt. You will get hurt.

And I really don't see "gaps" on Sunday, the markets usually start moving about 12 - 1 PM CST (US) with very low volume. See my profile for my broker, it was one of the reasons I selected them.
  • #9,773
  • Nov 7, 2009 9:10pm Nov 7, 2009 9:10pm
Quoting coscorp
anyone care to venture what the market will bring on monday?
Lots of money, I hope
  • #9,774
  • Nov 7, 2009 10:48pm Nov 7, 2009 10:48pm
Quoting coscorp
anyone care to venture what the market will bring on monday?
Hi Coscorp... thanks for your informative responses..

I've been paying some attention to the dollar index and dollar ETF's. While I know one should trade the chart in front of you, I think its useful to look at the dollar, the market indices, macro environment, etc

The dollar ETF paints a picture which leads me to be cautious..see attachment (courtesy breakpointtrades) The down trend (bullish falling wedge) was clearly broken recently, has retested that break, headed up and is now coming back to possibly test again (although the 50 MA could offer some support)

so.. that leads me to believe that our EURUSD uptrend which did not break down on this dollar strength is due to greater relative EUR strength. If the dollar trend has changed and continues up, then the EUR will have to outpace this gain for our trend to stay up.... I don't know if this can happen for long. I believe that our nice uptrend has been fuelled by USD weakness rather than EUR strength...if this has changed.. we should be careful.

Of course, we must also respect and trade the trend as long as it is in place on our chart..For what its worth, I think the EURUSD might head up a bit monday (test recent highs?) and then come back to test support. I will not be jumping in blindly at this point and will watch PA closely

my 2c
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  • #9,775
  • Nov 7, 2009 10:57pm Nov 7, 2009 10:57pm
since the primary basis of jacko's method is to be on the right side of the trend, and since everyone seems to believe the dollar will decline forever, i present the following 10/7/9 quote from krugman:

"The dollar’s role in the world actually looks stronger now that it did before the crisis. Why? Because our only serious rival, the euro, looks weaker. The euro zone has been fragmented in this crisis, especially the bond market, with debt of weaker European countries seriously discounted. This pushes the euro’s ability to rival the dollar back, at least for a while. And nobody else is really in the running.

 That said, the benefits of owning a key global currency are much overrated. Yes, we get a little free financing because Latin Americans keep $100 bills in their safes, and the Chinese buy a lot of Treasury bills. But ultimately, the role of the dollar isn’t very important to American prosperity – when the British pound lost its international role, nobody in Britain noticed or cared except a few lost souls in Whitehall."
realize the universe is one thing, and attach it to your body
  • #9,776
  • Nov 8, 2009 8:25am Nov 8, 2009 8:25am
Has Jacko Sir left this thread? I see the last post by Jacko Sir is in Aug 2009..Where is the Jacko Sir?
  • #9,777
  • Nov 8, 2009 4:46pm Nov 8, 2009 4:46pm
Ditto for me as well.
Pity the fool who thinks they'll make it overnight...
  • #9,778
  • Nov 8, 2009 6:18pm Nov 8, 2009 6:18pm
given the EUR/USD has been trending up for the past 9 years...assuming spread is negligible (or 0 for this theoretical case).. can you make a random BUY having your TP (in pips) equal your SL and assume your chances of winning the trade are 50% or greater? (using a TP/SL of somewhere close to the daily range.. lets say 120)

what is wrong w/ this logic:
take any pair, assume spread is 0, make a trade (buy or sell), have your TP equal your SL, and you're chances of winning the trade are 50%..

however this is not true right?
because of S&R lines, you might randomly buy at the high of a convergence box area and then it goes down and hits your SL because your SL was still in that box and was not placed outside the S/R line.
  • #9,779
  • Nov 9, 2009 12:29pm Nov 9, 2009 12:29pm
Quoting dengzhi
given the EUR/USD has been trending up for the past 9 years...assuming spread is negligible (or...

It can be mathematically demonstrated that in any wager game with varying probabilities, winnings are maximized by adjusting the bet size in accordance with the perceived chance for a successful outcome. -The New Market Wizards

Hi dengzhi,

I wouldn't risk any of my hard won $'s for such a method.

1st of all your assumption that the Euro has been in an uptrend for the previous 9 years is incorrect.

Had you tried to trade the method suggested, between August 2008 & October 2008 you would have found out to your cost.

What you could try out is a method I played about with briefly when I had only a limited amount of time per week in which to trade.

1st determine the daily trend, then apply a ATR 10 or 14 ( or any other period), multiply this by a minimum of 1.6 to 3.0 .

So take today as an example. The ATR 14 is @ approx 260 X 1.6=427

Now deduct this 427 from the either the high,low or close of today @ 17.00Eastern and enter your order to buy.

If your order hasn't been triggered by the close of business next day, then you have have the option to either alter the order taking into account any alteration in the ATR value or new daily high or let the order stand.

For a stop I would also use the same value 427
However, you could play around with the stop loss to suit both your pocket & support levels.

The benefit of this method is that it keeps you well away from the noise, granted you will not get too many trades, but this is not a bad thing.


Regards,

BabeFX.
  • #9,780
  • Nov 9, 2009 1:37pm Nov 9, 2009 1:37pm
after reading the first 155 pages of this thread my first question is: using the start of the present move at 4627 would I look at a 00 or 50 near the 50% retrace level to enter? for instance IF retrace from present level 5019, 50% and some horizontal support is around 4850-4800. Is this the Jacko method way to look at this? would post a chart but I also am old techno moron
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