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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #1,901
  • Nov 5, 2009 3:13pm Nov 5, 2009 3:13pm
Quoting fxmaverick
gangsta1,

Thanks for all of the work you have put into backtesting different MM strategies. Keep up the good work!!

Mav
Appreciated. I am a perfectionist so you can trust the results.
  • #1,902
  • Nov 5, 2009 5:10pm Nov 5, 2009 5:10pm
Gangsta,

Is your recommendation to trade all eight currency pairs for both the London and New York time frames?

Thanks,
Bob in Wisconsin
  • #1,903
  • Nov 5, 2009 5:20pm Nov 5, 2009 5:20pm
hi deras. i am a new trader in forex and i,m just 16 yeras old and i,m a kid. i attached a picture u see in left some words and numbers that,s a indicator but i don,t have that if u have it please share it i need that alot. thank u. Best Regards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3216.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #1,904
  • Nov 6, 2009 1:02am Nov 6, 2009 1:02am
Hi Gangsta,

I was wondering what you thought about narrowing down the number of pairs traded? Let's say you take all 8 pairs and risk 1% on each with a 15 SL. This gives us a pip % of 0.06%. Using the average of 42 pips a day across 5 days gives us 210 pips or 12.6% increase. However, what if we take the best 3 performers and risk a slightly higher % on each? Say 3%? This would give 0.2% per pip, triple the value. We'd only need 63 pips a week to beat 12.6% growth. I think we can certainly find 3 pairs that give us more than 63 pips a week..
  • #1,905
  • Nov 6, 2009 2:08am Nov 6, 2009 2:08am
I think it' s better to use more pairs becuase we don't know which ones will be the best the future and generally speaking it will be more stable the performance.
It's my opinion.

Quoting DubaiTrader
Hi Gangsta,

I was wondering what you thought about narrowing down the number of pairs traded? Let's say you take all 8 pairs and risk 1% on each with a 15 SL. This gives us a pip % of 0.06%. Using the average of 42 pips a day across 5 days gives us 210 pips or 12.6% increase. However, what if we take the best 3 performers and risk a slightly higher % on each? Say 3%? This would give 0.2% per pip, triple the value. We'd only need 63 pips a week to beat 12.6% growth. I think we can certainly find 3 pairs that give us more than 63 pips a week..
  • #1,906
  • Nov 6, 2009 2:15am Nov 6, 2009 2:15am
Quoting olachico
I think it' s better to use more pairs becuase we don't know which ones will be the best the future and generally speaking it will be more stable the performance.
It's my opinion.

Good point but I think GU and EU will always be stable performers. Anyway, still doing research at this stage but always looking for that little something extra.
  • #1,907
  • Nov 6, 2009 2:18am Nov 6, 2009 2:18am
Hello folks,

so do you recommend the half hour extension as an efficient false breakout filter?
  • #1,908
  • Nov 6, 2009 2:20am Nov 6, 2009 2:20am
Quoting koco
Hello folks,

so do you recommend the half hour extension as an efficient false breakout filter?
There is no extension here guys... the hrs are 7-9 EST. If using a 30 min chart as I do, the candle will end at 9.30 EST. If using a 15 min chart it will end at 9.15.
  • #1,909
  • Nov 6, 2009 5:31am Nov 6, 2009 5:31am
Quoting DubaiTrader
There is no extension here guys... the hrs are 7-9 EST. If using a 30 min chart as I do, the candle will end at 9.30 EST. If using a 15 min chart it will end at 9.15.

From your statement I see that you do not have specific time when "box" is ending. It all depend on the time frame that you are trading.
Your box can end at 9:01 (if trading 1min) or at 10:00 (if trading 1h time frame).
I don't see how this can be reliable method to trade when you don't have specific time when to enter trade!?
  • #1,910
  • Edited 5:45am Nov 6, 2009 5:33am | Edited 5:45am
Quoting DubaiTrader
Hi Gangsta,

I was wondering what you thought about narrowing down the number of pairs traded? Let's say you take all 8 pairs and risk 1% on each with a 15 SL. This gives us a pip % of 0.06%. Using the average of 42 pips a day across 5 days gives us 210 pips or 12.6% increase. However, what if we take the best 3 performers and risk a slightly higher % on each? Say 3%? This would give 0.2% per pip, triple the value. We'd only need 63 pips a week to beat 12.6% growth. I think we can certainly find 3 pairs that give us more than 63 pips a week.....
If you trade less pairs (E.G. 3 instead of 8) then you will get alot less opportunities. Some weeks the pairs you opted to trade may not win at all whereas 3 of the other 5 you did not choose would win. However, I think what you propose is a good idea, provided the trader has the psychology to miss good opportunities in knowing that the pairs they have opted for will get their turn. This may result in drawdown/losses which would evidently mean that the risk you can put forward will be smaller.

Let me plan this out. Say for example we have a $500 mini account where 0.01 lots = $0.10 per pip and 0.1 lots = $1.00 per pip.

Option #1
Risk 10% of account on 8 pairs.
10% of $500 = $50.
8 pairs with a SL of 15 = 120 pips risk.
$50 / 120pips = $0.4 per pip
Average of 42pips per day so $0.4 x 42 = $16.8

Option #2
Risk 10& of account on 3 best performing pairs: EU, GU, EJ.
Total for 2009 untill November for these pairs is 3170.
3170 / 10months / 4weeks / 5 days = Average of 16pips per day.
10% of $500 = $50.
3 pairs with a SL of 15 = 45 pips risk.
$50 / 45pips = $1.1 per pip
Average of 16pips per day so $1.1 x 16 = $17.6

Conclusion
Both options are profitable. It is important to state however the validity of these options. Here we use a SL of 15 pips. The average amount of pips is derived from a test where 10 pips was the stop loss. Although, the winners would still be winners, the losers would be 5 pips more each. However, I do suggest if the SL is 15 then the TP should be 75 which will even things out again, if not increase profits more. So the options here can be taken as a rough estimate not a pip by pip solution. I would personally opt for 8 pairs as there is more opportunity to catch moves. Yes there is more opportunity to lose but the losses are small in comparisment to the winners.

I must also add: The 42 pip was the daily average thus far this year trading 8 pairs. However I have seen many days where a majority of the pairs break out together and the daily amount is alot greater. Of course if you only trade 3 pairs you will miss these days. Look at last week Monday Octoober 26th where 6 pairs broke out and hit +75 pips TP. That was 450 pips for that day. The 3 best performing pairs made 150. Using the above options then Option 1=$180 and Option 2=$165. Again this shows that the results are similar.
  • #1,911
  • Nov 6, 2009 5:33am Nov 6, 2009 5:33am
Quoting Knez
From your statement I see that you do not have specific time when "box" is ending. It all depend on the time frame that you are trading.
Your box can end at 9:01 (if trading 1min) or at 10:00 (if trading 1h time frame).
I don't see how this can be reliable method to trade when you don't have specific time when to enter trade!?
No method of trading is reliable if the trader does not figure out how to trade it themselves.
  • #1,912
  • Nov 6, 2009 5:38am Nov 6, 2009 5:38am
Quoting gangsta1
No method of trading is reliable if the trader does not figure out how to trade it themselves.
I agree, but this is nonsence to say that box can end any time from 9:00 until candle of your time frame is ended.

Box is starting at 7am EST and end at 9am EST -no matter what time frame do you trade!
  • #1,913
  • Nov 6, 2009 5:45am Nov 6, 2009 5:45am
Quoting Knez
I agree, but this is nonsence to say that box can end any time from 9:00 until candle of your time frame is ended.

Box is starting at 7am EST and end at 9am EST -no matter what time frame do you trade!
Yes it ends at 9AM EST- A new candle forms at 0900!!! Jesus, how hard is it to understand? I'm trading it my way and having very good results. Trade it from 4-7, 5-8, I don't really care when you trade it. It's all down the trader.
  • #1,914
  • Nov 6, 2009 5:48am Nov 6, 2009 5:48am
Quoting Knez
I agree, but this is nonsence to say that box can end any time from 9:00 until candle of your time frame is ended.

Box is starting at 7am EST and end at 9am EST -no matter what time frame do you trade!
Actually, if you have MetaTrader 4 or some other trading platform and load up a chart and add the box indicator, you will find that the box can end anytime YOU want it to on any time frame. Its up to you! Everyone does things differently.
  • #1,915
  • Nov 6, 2009 5:58am Nov 6, 2009 5:58am
Quoting gangsta1
Actually, if you have MetaTrader 4 or some other trading platform and load up a chart and add the box indicator, you will find that the box can end anytime YOU want it to on any time frame. Its up to you! Everyone does things differently.

No doubt about this, but many new traders are looking for some method that they can try and test to see weather this is method that it is good for them or not, and when someone approach to you and ask you about 7-9am box - you simply cannot answer: box is ending at any time depend on time frame that you trade. What kind of method is that?
If someone trade the way that box is ending any time after 9am depending on time frame, then one have to point out ... this how I trade! ... and not: 7-9am box ends any time after 9am depend on your time frame! This is not the method how is described in this thread!
  • #1,916
  • Nov 6, 2009 6:03am Nov 6, 2009 6:03am
Quoting Knez
No doubt about this, but many new traders are looking for some method that they can try and test to see weather this is method that it is good for them or not, and when someone approach to you and ask you about 7-9am box - you simply cannot answer: box is ending at any time depend on time frame that you trade. What kind of method is that?
If someone trade the way that box is ending any time after 9am depending on time frame, then one have to point out ... this how I trade! ... and not: 7-9am box ends any time after 9am depend on your time frame!...
Well use the method how it is described in the thread. Be sure to come back and post your results for us.
  • #1,917
  • Nov 6, 2009 6:04am Nov 6, 2009 6:04am
Quoting Knez
No doubt about this, but many new traders are looking for some method that they can try and test to see weather this is method that it is good for them or not, and when someone approach to you and ask you about 7-9am box - you simply cannot answer: box is ending at any time depend on time frame that you trade. What kind of method is that?
If someone trade the way that box is ending any time after 9am depending on time frame, then one have to point out ... this how I trade! ... and not: 7-9am box ends any time after 9am depend on your time frame!...
Have you bothered to read any of the last few pages? We have detailed all results for the 7-9 strategy on the 30M chart! Which means candle ends at 0930. Infact have you even read the first page? Draw lines at 0700 and 0900 on MT4. Go and do that and tell me the ending of the candle on a 15min chart. I guarantee you it is 0915.
  • #1,918
  • Nov 6, 2009 6:05am Nov 6, 2009 6:05am
Quoting gangsta1
Well use the method how it is described in the thread. Be sure to come back and post your results for us.

I didn't want to be rude or argue but simply make things clear.
  • #1,919
  • Nov 6, 2009 6:12am Nov 6, 2009 6:12am
Quoting DubaiTrader
Have you bothered to read any of the last few pages? We have detailed all results for the 7-9 strategy on the 30M chart! Which means candle ends at 0930. Infact have you even read the first page? Draw lines at 0700 and 0900 on MT4. Go and do that and tell me the ending of the candle on a 15min chart. I guarantee you it is 0915.
in your post #1908 you mention that box is ending at any time after 9am depend on time frame that you trade, and now you are saying that box is ending at 9:30am.
It is just discrepancy of what you were saying.

DubaiTrader, please don't think that I am trying to assault you or anyone, just want to make sure that new traders will understand.

Thanks.
  • #1,920
  • Nov 6, 2009 6:15am Nov 6, 2009 6:15am
Quoting DubaiTrader
Have you bothered to read any of the last few pages? We have detailed all results for the 7-9 strategy on the 30M chart! Which means candle ends at 0930. Infact have you even read the first page? Draw lines at 0700 and 0900 on MT4. Go and do that and tell me the ending of the candle on a 15min chart. I guarantee you it is 0915.
You are wrong here:
If you draw line at 0700 and 0900 your highest/lowest price will be at 0900 exact. No matter what time frame do you use. It always end at 0900.
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