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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #1,881
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:04am Nov 5, 2009 9:04am
Hey gangsta1.

Thx for all your Infos....
I think i take you first MM-Strategy with TP: 50 and SL:10

but i have got one more questions: How large is the maximum range on a pair...? That means: In wich range itīs still allowed to trade the pair.

Good Luck to all....

Any positiv signal today? (NY Session)

Thx and Greetz
  • #1,882
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:16am Nov 5, 2009 9:16am
Quoting vatoslocos
Hey gangsta1.

Thx for all your Infos....
I think i take you first MM-Strategy with TP: 50 and SL:10

but i have got one more questions: How large is the maximum range on a pair...? That means: In wich range itīs still allowed to trade the pair.

Good Luck to all....

Any positiv signal today? (NY Session)

Thx and Greetz
There is no maximum range, just trade the breakout regardless of boxsize.

I'll upload my results tomorrow.

Excellent work again, gangsta, very speedy!!

Glad this thread is coming back to flavour, it deserves to be kept near the top whilst this strategy is working so well.
  • #1,883
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:16am Nov 5, 2009 9:16am
Quoting gangsta1
Any good results are encourageable! I know of a few pivot indicators that plot daily, weekly and monthly pivot points, however I do not trade them although they are profitable if traded correctly. Im slightly confused why you need the box there if you are trading above or below pivot lines??
Sorry maybe my post was not very clear. The lines I have just join up the swing low's with the swing high's and visa versa. They are not daily pivot point levels. All I was trying to say was that if for example the price continued to rise after the 7.00am point. I would wait until my software (using a 2 min chart) had created a swing low and I would enter on the break of the prior swing high. Having the lines showing me where the swing low had formed makes it easier. This might mean that you were entering at 7.14am rather than 7.00am. This would give you a clearer entry point. All my analysis was based upon looking at the real time price information from a 2 min chart
  • #1,884
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:23am Nov 5, 2009 9:23am
Quoting gangsta1
A few people seemed to be concerned about the time of the box ending on the m30 chart. E.g. Do we place orders at 2:00pm London time or do we wait for the 2:00pm candle to close and place are orders at 2:30pm London time.
Well during my testing the box was officially ending at 2:30pm London time so this is when the orders were being placed. In order to compare placing orders at 2:00pm or 2:30pm London time I recorded the results of the GU from 2009 by placing orders at 2:00pm and compared them with my original results where I placed orders at 2:30pm....
Gangsta,

I remain confused by your reference to the London Breakout Box ending @ 2:30pm London time. My calculations for that ending time would be:

London time = 8:30AM
GMT = 0830
EST = 3:30AM
CST = 2:30AM

Sorry about recycling this old issue, but I sure could use some clarification, as if I don't get it right, I won't benefit from all the wonderful effort you have put forth on this thread.

Many thanks,
  • #1,885
  • Edited 11:06am Nov 5, 2009 9:28am | Edited 11:06am
Quoting vatoslocos
Hey gangsta1.

Thx for all your Infos....
I think i take you first MM-Strategy with TP: 50 and SL:10

but i have got one more questions: How large is the maximum range on a pair...? That means: In wich range itīs still allowed to trade the pair.

Good Luck to all....

Any positiv signal today? (NY Session)

Thx and Greetz
If you mean maximum range as in box size then I dont bother with range. Infact, the only thing I care about is where the high and the low of the box are and the direction of the h1 slopes.

Signals today thus far GU, EU & A/USD. Please be aware that there will be more losing trades/days/even weeks with the MM I have mentioned on numerous occasions, but the key is long term we will be up. Just make sure you trade a lot size your account can handle. I would recommend no more than 3% risk per trade and 10% overall (quite risky)

To expand on that:

****IF YOU DO NOT READ ANYTHING IN THIS THREAD, READ THIS****

You have an account of $300 for example (mini lots)
You want to trade 5 pairs during the breakout session
You use a SL of 10pips, Total risk is 50 pips (5 pairs)
10% (overall you are willing to risk) of $300 is $30
$30 divided by 50 pips is 0.6 per pip ($0.60 with a mini account)
So if you lost all 5 trades, 0.6 x 50 = $30 (10% of your account)
Thats the worst case scenario
Lets say you had a TP of 50 pips
You lose 4 trades (0.6 x 40 = $24)
You win 1 trade (0.6 x 50 =$30)
Total Profit = $6
Now it does not seem like much and this is a pretty bad scenario of losing 4 out of 5 trades. But, if you add $6 to your account each day (on average) and increase your risk to reflect your increasing account, therefore trading higher lots, your account will steadily grow.

My testing produced 8405 pips so far this year.
Divide that by 10months thats 840.
Divide that by 4 weeks thats 210.
Divide that by 5 days thats an average of 42pips per day.

So if we had that $300 account and trade the 8 pairs I did in my tests then..

10% risk of $300 is $30
$30 divided by 80pips risk (SL:10 and we trade 8 pairs) = 0.4
So if the SL is hit on all pairs we lose around $30
However on average we equal out to 42 pips per day (see above & results)
So, 42 x 0.4 = $16.8 increase per day.

The next day are account is $316 so we still risk 0. 4
Once we have $400 in our account we can risk 0.5
Once we have $500 in our account we can risk 0.6
etc
etc

Not to mention this is just the "BigDog Breakout". If you trade the "London Morning Breakout" GBP pairs you could increase your account more. Again, provided you have good MM.

**This is trading so of course its not smooth sailing and there will be just losing days and it will take patience, discipline and a strong psych to do this. However it is not impossible. You can risk larger lot sizes by trading less pairs also. I would go for risking 50 pips because chances are not all 8 pairs will trigger there trades.

Hope this helps someone, its what opened my eyes to the most important part of trading and why most people lose = MONEY MANAGEMENT.
  • #1,886
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:31am Nov 5, 2009 9:31am
Quoting Bobcat2
Gangsta,

I remain confused by your reference to the London Breakout Box ending @ 2:30pm London time. My calculations for that ending time would be:

London time = 8:30AM
GMT = 0830
EST = 3:30AM
CST = 2:30AM

Sorry about recycling this old issue, but I sure could use some clarification, as if I don't get it right, I won't benefit from all the wonderful effort you have put forth on this thread.

Many thanks,
Matey,

The "London Breakout Box" is for the London Morning Breakout session. Your calculations are correct for that (8:30am London Time end). I was talking about the "BigDog Breakout" which is why you got confused (I have this ending at 2.30pm London Time). Hope that clears it up for you.
  • #1,887
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:10am Nov 5, 2009 10:10am
I'd like to use the ea but I don't know which setup i have to put. For example I try to change the"stop loss addon" with 15 but the in the results the stop loss is higher.

Quoting gangsta1
Thanks moneda. I had a quick flick through and will read it in detail when I get time. Very buisy back testing to find ideal MM for this strategy. This doc may or may not help but I dont want to confuse the task at hand! Im attempting to narrow down the best MM choosing between:

BEST BUFFER
-------------
10, 15, 10+spread, 15+spread

BEST SL
------------
10,15

BEST TP
------------
50,75

BEST BreakEven
-----------
Confident to keep this at +30

The EA that was posted in this thread would help greatly if it had the option to set start_time on the...
  • #1,888
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:11am Nov 5, 2009 10:11am
Quoting gangsta1
If you mean maximum range as in box size then I dont bother with range. Infact, the only thing I care about is where the high and the low of the box are and the direction of the h1 slopes.

Signals today thus far GU, EU & A/USD. Please be aware that there will be more losing trades/days/even weeks with the MM I have mentioned on numerous occasions,...
Fantastic Intrudoction....

But what about the Leverage like 200(1:200)

10% risk of $300 is $30
$30 divided by 80pips risk (SL:10 and we trade 8 pairs) = 0.4
But thats only work if use a Leverage 1:1 isnīt it?

Can you make an example how to calculate the lot size including an Leverage?

Thx man.... Great work you do...
  • #1,889
  • Edited 10:46am Nov 5, 2009 10:33am | Edited 10:46am
Quoting vatoslocos
Fantastic Intrudoction....

But what about the Leverage like 200(1:200)

10% risk of $300 is $30
$30 divided by 80pips risk (SL:10 and we trade 8 pairs) = 0.4
But thats only work if use a Leverage 1:1 isnīt it?

Can you make an example how to calculate the lot size including an Leverage?

Thx man.... Great work you do...
To be clear I do not mean 0.4 as in $4 per pip, but 0.4 (maybe 0.04) as in a mini account where 0.4 (or 0.04) is $0.40 per pip.

I strongly suggest reading up on leverage@

http://www.babypips.com/school/leverage_the_killer.html
  • #1,890
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:56am Nov 5, 2009 10:56am
Quoting olachico
I'd like to use the ea but I don't know which setup i have to put. For example I try to change the"stop loss addon" with 15 but the in the results the stop loss is higher.
See this page, post #1689
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post3095915
  • #1,891
  • Nov 5, 2009 11:31am Nov 5, 2009 11:31am
Quoting gangsta1
Hi,

The SL is 10 pips from entry. Entry is High/Low of box +10pip buffer +Spread.
I did not test with a trailing stop in mind as these breakout moves tend to move quickly in one direction. However, to lock in more than break even profit for those moves that turn before 50 pips then I would suggest:

Set break even to +1 @+20 (further test say this would be better at +30), Start Trailing at +25 and Trail by 5 pips. So if trade decides to turn at +40 then you have locked in +16pips. This would be better then hitting your stop loss or breaking...
Hi Gangsta1 !

great work on backtesting!
Thanx

Do you know some way to make a tighter Trailing Stop

I guess it should be cheating with the Broker,makin' an automated trailing stop folllow the winning position like a human being

on my MT4 the smallest is 15 pips...

It would be a GREAT add on for every trader

anyone know something better?
Account deleted
  • #1,892
  • Nov 5, 2009 11:45am Nov 5, 2009 11:45am
Hello Dubaitrader and all :-)

My question is very simple: do you trade on Fridays? Please share you experiences with Big Dog and London Open as well. I don't like Fridays, because I experienced losses that day. However, I can't tell by so few days whether it's a constant or just bad luck.

Anyway, Fridays aren't recommended for newbies as I read on various articles, but I'm interested if you can statistically confirm these day as a bad one and not suitable for breakout strategies.

Thanks.
  • #1,893
  • Nov 5, 2009 11:46am Nov 5, 2009 11:46am
Hi folks:
Are we getting near the time where we no longer will consider a breakout for today?

Jim
  • #1,894
  • Nov 5, 2009 11:55am Nov 5, 2009 11:55am
Quoting koco
Hello Dubaitrader and all :-)

My question is very simple: do you trade on Fridays? Please share you experiences with Big Dog and London Open as well. I don't like Fridays, because I experienced losses that day. However, I can't tell by so few days whether it's a constant or just bad luck.

Anyway, Fridays aren't recommended for newbies as I read on various articles, but I'm interested if you can statistically confirm these day as a bad one and not suitable for breakout strategies.

Thanks.
Personally I have seen great results from breakout strategies on fridays. We want big moves and fridays can provide them. My lone opinion of course.
  • #1,895
  • Nov 5, 2009 11:55am Nov 5, 2009 11:55am
Quoting bigjim1958
Hi folks:
Are we getting near the time where we no longer will consider a breakout for today?

Jim
Most Definatly. London packed up and went home. Not saying the US wont breakout the box, just not with the other BigDog in play.
  • #1,896
  • Edited 1:01pm Nov 5, 2009 12:20pm | Edited 1:01pm
Okay one and all!

I feel alot of people may be skeptical about my results so I have detailed this weeks results so far. The purpose of this task is to allow someone to look at them and check the validity of them, eventually we can compare findings.
Two heads are of course always better than one. So here I lay down the results of the 8 pairs I traded this week along with the MM and rules. If someone would double check them that would be great, however I am confident I tested correctly (Broker prices and spreads may vary ever so slightly).

RULES
--------
TP:75
SL:15
Break Even@+30
BUFFER:15pips+Spread
BOX TIME: 12pm to 2pm London Time
H1: The direction of the 2 slopes must agree
M30: Place entry on high/low of [email protected]

PAIRS
-------
EU, GU, UCHF, UJ, EJ, UCAD, AUSD, NUSD

RESULTS
-------
Monday Nov 2nd
EU: Break Even (moved around +59 from breakout line)
GU: N/A
UCHF: -15 (moved around +40 from B/O line)
UJ: Break Even (moved around +48 from B/O line)
EJ: +75 (moved around +142 from B/O line)
UCAD: Break Even (moved around +56 from B/O line)
AUSD: Break Even (moved around +63 from B/O line)
NUSD: Break Even (moved around +62 from B/O line)

Tuesday Nov 3rd
EU: N/A
GU: N/A
UCHF: N/A
UJ: N/A
EJ: N/A
UCAD: +75 (moved around +166 from B/O line)
AUSD: N/A
NUSD: N/A

Wednesday Nov 4th
EU: -15
GU: -15
UCHF: Break Even (moved around +80 from B/O line)
UJ: N/A
EJ: +75 (moved around +119 from B/O line)
UCAD: N/A
AUSD: N/A
NUSD: N/A

Thursday Nov 5th
EU: N/A
GU: N/A
UCHF: N/A
UJ: N/A
EJ: N/A
UCAD: N/A
AUSD: N/A
NUSD: N/A

SUMMARY
----------
Wins=3
Losses=3

3x75=225 minus 3x15 = +180

My backtest for the whole year of 2009 thus far gave an average of 42 pips per day. So far this week (4 days) we have made 185pips. Divide that by 4 and you get 45pips, not far from the average daily amount.

Other Money Management
-----------------------------
If TP:50 and SL:15 this week results would have been
Wins=4
Losses=3

4x50=200 minus 3x15 = +155

IMO you can lower the TP amount and win more but in the long run you will make more pips going for a higher TP whilst cutting losses short and having a break even in place. Some of you may like to use trailing stops or break even and move stop +5, +10 or whatever you like. There are ways to make this week more profitable, E.g. TP:100 or Lock +10pips@ +30. Trailing stops and so on. However that is just this week and I believe in the long run 75 pips is a good amount. It would be nice to do more testing for the various TP amounts but this would require an EA as manually testing this down to m1 charts would be a mammoth task.

Next I will try to record the "London Morning Breakout" results from this week. Hope someone took the time out to check this.
  • #1,897
  • Nov 5, 2009 12:42pm Nov 5, 2009 12:42pm
Quoting gangsta1
Matey,

The "London Breakout Box" is for the London Morning Breakout session. Your calculations are correct for that (8:30am London Time end). I was talking about the "BigDog Breakout" which is why you got confused (I have this ending at 2.30pm London Time). Hope that clears it up for you.
Please don't kill me for this question, most likely this was answered many times. However this thread is so large that it is kinda hard to find it.

The original box considered 3 hours (5:00am - 8:00am GMT).
Was this shrinked and modified to 6:00am - 8:30am GMT, please?

I think that it would be a good idea to establish some sticky post or website (I'm not whether it complies with the rules of FF to link some external website here) which would contain different strategy setups along with MM, RR and most of all a FAQ including the time zones, box sizes and order time entries... What do you think?
  • #1,898
  • Nov 5, 2009 3:09pm Nov 5, 2009 3:09pm
Here are the detailed results from last week (26th Oct to 30th Oct 2009).

RULES
--------
TP:75
SL:15
Break Even@+30
BUFFER:15pips+Spread
BOX TIME: 12pm to 2pm London Time
H1: The direction of the 2 slopes must agree
M30: Place entry on high/low of [email protected]

PAIRS
-------
EU, GU, UCHF, UJ, EJ, UCAD, AUSD, NUSD

RESULTS
-------
Monday Oct 26nd
EU: +75 (moved around +170 from breakout line)
GU: N/A
UCHF: +75 (moved around +120 from breakout line)
UJ: N/A
EJ: +75 (moved around >300 from breakout line)
UCAD: +75 (moved around +106 from breakout line)
AUSD: +75 (moved around >200 from breakout line)
NUSD: +75 (moved around +100 from breakout line)

Tuesday Oct 27th
EU: -15 (moved around +38 from breakout line)
GU: N/A
UCHF: N/A
UJ: N/A
EJ: +75 (moved around >300 from breakout line)
UCAD: N/A
AUSD: N/A
NUSD: N/A

Wednesday Oct 28th
EU: -15
GU: Break Even (moved around +50 from breakout line)
UCHF: N/A
UJ: Break Even (moved around +71 from breakout line)
EJ: +75 (moved around +170 from breakout line)
UCAD: -15
AUSD: Break Even (moved around +83 from breakout line)
NUSD: -15 (moved around +39 from breakout line)

Thursday Oct 29th
EU: -15
GU: Break Even (moved around +72 from breakout line)
UCHF: -15
UJ: N/A
EJ: Break Even (moved around +65 from breakout line)
UCAD: -15
AUSD: -15
NUSD: -15 (moved around +45 from breakout line)

Friday Oct 30th
EU: -15 (moved around +30 from breakout line)
GU: N/A
UCHF: -15
UJ: +75 (moved around >150 from breakout line)
EJ: +75 (moved around >280 from breakout line)
UCAD: -15
AUSD: +75 (moved around +170 from breakout line)
NUSD: -15

SUMMARY
----------
Wins=9
Losses=13

9x75 (675) minus 13x15 (195) = +480

My backtest for the whole year of 2009 thus far gave an average of 42 pips per day. This week we would have made 480pips. Divide that by 5 and you get 96pips per day, a well above average week.

Other Money Management
-----------------------------
If TP:50 and SL:15 this week results would have been
Wins=15
Losses=12

15x50 (750) minus 12x15 = +570

So this was an exceptional week. Again more losses yet more profit.
  • #1,899
  • Nov 5, 2009 3:11pm Nov 5, 2009 3:11pm
Quoting gangsta1
Next I will try to record the "London Morning Breakout" results from this week. Hope someone took the time out to check this.
gangsta1,

Thanks for all of the work you have put into backtesting different MM strategies. Keep up the good work!!

Mav
  • #1,900
  • Nov 5, 2009 3:13pm Nov 5, 2009 3:13pm
Quoting koco
Please don't kill me for this question, most likely this was answered many times. However this thread is so large that it is kinda hard to find it.

The original box considered 3 hours (5:00am - 8:00am GMT).
Was this shrinked and modified to 6:00am - 8:30am GMT, please?

I think that it would be a good idea to establish some sticky post or website (I'm not whether it complies with the rules of FF to link some external website here) which would contain different strategy setups along with MM, RR and most of all a FAQ including the time zones, box...
I think you should trade the box you are happy with. Traders here can give advice but you have to decide what suites you. The original post and method still stands and you can still trade it. The ideas we are sharing now are just an evolution and individual optimised settings. What works for someone may not work for someone else. But, from my results I would say to you that more importantly than being half an hour different with your box, is being on the correct side of the breakout and using a chart time that will filter false breakouts.
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