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Attachments: 7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy
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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #1,861
  • Nov 5, 2009 1:34am Nov 5, 2009 1:34am
Quoting fxpilot
Dubaitrader and Gansta1 have certainly given this thread new life. This is an excellent strategy that has proven itself to be robust over the years. I have been trading breakouts for a while now and it works well. A similar strategy can also be applied to London opening range session. It works equally well and gives us two great trading opportunities each day to capture nice pips. Well done Dubaitrader and Gansta1, your hardwork and contributions are appreciated.

fxpilot
Thanks for the kind words, fx.

GU missed it's scalp by 3 pips yesterday, I think moving the stop to BE when getting so close would be a good option.
  • #1,862
  • Nov 5, 2009 2:28am Nov 5, 2009 2:28am
it seems there is a good setup in the london session fot GBPUSD. what do you think?


Quoting DubaiTrader
Thanks for the kind words, fx.

GU missed it's scalp by 3 pips yesterday, I think moving the stop to BE when getting so close would be a good option.
  • #1,863
  • Nov 5, 2009 2:51am Nov 5, 2009 2:51am
Quoting olachico
it seems there is a good setup in the london session fot GBPUSD. what do you think?
Do you mean a short or long position setup?

  • #1,864
  • Nov 5, 2009 2:53am Nov 5, 2009 2:53am
short

Quoting Bobcat2
Do you mean a short or long position setup?

  • #1,865
  • Nov 5, 2009 2:53am Nov 5, 2009 2:53am
Quoting olachico
it seems there is a good setup in the london session fot GBPUSD. what do you think?
Haven't looked at the morning breakout, Gangsta is probably your best guy for that. However, I am going to start recording results.
  • #1,866
  • Nov 5, 2009 2:57am Nov 5, 2009 2:57am
Dubai,

THe slopes on the 1H chart are both pointing down, but the 25 slope line on the 30 min chart has turned from red to white (or up position). That wouldseem to be an early warning sign that this is a going to be a ranging market, although I do have a pending sell in place. And in fact, price is moving up. I am considering that because this is freaky friday week, that the market may be consolidating in lieu of the US FOMC report. What do you think? Do you have a pending trade placed? I'm leaning towards canceling my short pending order.

  • #1,867
  • Nov 5, 2009 3:05am Nov 5, 2009 3:05am
I totally agree, but let's wait a little bit. there is movement in the market, it's not friday.


Quoting Bobcat2
Dubai,

THe slopes on the 1H chart are both pointing down, but the 25 slope line on the 30 min chart has turned from red to white (or up position). That wouldseem to be an early warning sign that this is a going to be a ranging market, although I do have a pending sell in place. And in fact, price is moving up. I am considering that because this is freaky friday week, that the market may be consolidating in lieu of the US FOMC report. What do you think? Do you have a pending trade placed? I'm leaning towards canceling my short pending order.

...
  • #1,868
  • Nov 5, 2009 3:25am Nov 5, 2009 3:25am
Quoting Bobcat2
Dubai,

THe slopes on the 1H chart are both pointing down, but the 25 slope line on the 30 min chart has turned from red to white (or up position). That wouldseem to be an early warning sign that this is a going to be a ranging market, although I do have a pending sell in place. And in fact, price is moving up. I am considering that because this is freaky friday week, that the market may be consolidating in lieu of the US FOMC report. What do you think? Do you have a pending trade placed? I'm leaning towards canceling my short pending order.

...
Hi Bob,

I have to agree regarding GU, it seems to pushing back up from the sell off following the FOMC statement, I'm staying well away from GU until the BOE release.

I was short on EJ and EU but closed out for +30 and +10 respectively. Timed EU to perfection, I noticed how strong daily and weekly pivot were and got out when it touched 1.4815. Lucky escape.
  • #1,869
  • Nov 5, 2009 5:55am Nov 5, 2009 5:55am
DubaiTrader and Gangsta1,

I have been a quiet reader of this thread for a long time...thanks for your contribution. Have you or anybody else here considered using the "Trader's Trick Entry" by Mr. Ross that is part of the "Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading " thread as a way to deal with fakeouts after a violation of the bracket? Most likely, it would have to be applied to the 30m or 1hr timeframe .... Here is some info.

Good luck to all.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Traders_Trick_Entry.pdf   139 KB | 1,134 downloads
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #1,870
  • Edited 6:28am Nov 5, 2009 6:16am | Edited 6:28am
Quoting moneda
DubaiTrader and Gangsta1,

I have been a quiet reader of this thread for a long time...thanks for your contribution. Have you or anybody else here considered using the "Trader's Trick Entry" by Mr. Ross that is part of the "Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading " thread as a way to deal with fakeouts after a violation of the bracket? Most likely, it would have to be applied to the 30m or 1hr timeframe .... Here is some info.

Good luck to all.
Thanks moneda. I had a quick flick through and will read it in detail when I get time. Very buisy back testing to find ideal MM for this strategy. This doc may or may not help but I dont want to confuse the task at hand! Im attempting to narrow down the best MM choosing between:

BEST BUFFER
-------------
10, 15, 10+spread, 15+spread

BEST SL
------------
10,15

BEST TP
------------
50,75

BEST BreakEven
-----------
Confident to keep this at +30

The EA that was posted in this thread would help greatly if it had the option to set start_time on the half hour e.g. 14:30 instead of just 14:00 or 15:00. Additionally it needs a fixed stop loss as it currently uses the opposite side of the box which of course will more than likely always be bigger than my proposed 10-15 SL.

Im uploading the EA again (credit to the original poster "Breakout_EA") just incase any coders out there are reading this and can add the neccasary funtions to support my proposed MM.

My gut feeling and from my back testing observations so far would suggest that a TP:75 and SL:15+Spread would be the most rewarding MM. However as long as the risk reward is kept at 1:5 then this strategy should always bring positive pips albeit there are more losers than winners. Saying that, your discipline and psychology must be spot on because if you are going to exit trades early then you change the Risk:Reward ratio. My backtesting was strict and shows that if you stick to a plan it will reap rewards. Of course forward testing is the most important and I look forward to the team here to post results and the MM used.

**NB: The EA does not take into account slope direction so results would have to be filtered manually. This is no problem for me as I just want the EA to show me on each day the slopes agreed, what MM was the most successful.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 OHEAbeta5.mq4   18 KB | 435 downloads
  • #1,871
  • Nov 5, 2009 6:28am Nov 5, 2009 6:28am
Gangsta,

Np, don't want to detract you or anybody else from their plan... I thought that maybe there is a way to adjust it to this strategy... something to look at during the weekend.

Best to all,

PS: I have a question for the veterans of this thread.... What if price during the London period has been in consolidation prior to the completion of the 7am-9am bracket forming a level of resistance/support that is more than the 10 pip buffer?.... do you take into consideration or ignore it?


Thanks
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #1,872
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:14am Nov 5, 2009 7:14am
Quoting moneda
DubaiTrader and Gangsta1,

I have been a quiet reader of this thread for a long time...thanks for your contribution. Have you or anybody else here considered using the "Trader's Trick Entry" by Mr. Ross that is part of the "Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading " thread as a way to deal with fakeouts after a violation of the bracket? Most likely, it would have to be applied to the 30m or 1hr timeframe .... Here is some info.

Good luck to all.
I'll have a little read of this over the weekend, thanks for sharing.
  • #1,873
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:20am Nov 5, 2009 7:20am
gangsta1 and gang members:

The GBP/USD box size on FXDD is already 136 pips with more than an hour to go for the box to be complete. Do we avoid trading altogether when the box hits a certain size? I don't remember gangsta1 factoring size as one of his parameters for the trade? My apologies if this has already been covered earlier.

  • #1,874
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:25am Nov 5, 2009 7:25am
Quoting Bobcat2
gangsta1 and gang members:

The GBP/USD box size on FXDD is already 136 pips with more than an hour to go for the box to be complete. Do we avoid trading altogether when the box hits a certain size? I don't remember gangsta1 factoring size as one of his parameters for the trade? My apologies if this has already been covered earlier.

I didnt take into account box size during my backtesting. Its upto you to decide, but I got good results without considering box size, news releases, prior support/resistances. I just traded the high and low of the box, nothing else. Money mangement was the key.
  • #1,875
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:47am Nov 5, 2009 7:47am
Quoting gangsta1
I didnt take into account box size during my backtesting. Its upto you to decide, but I got good results without considering box size, news releases, prior support/resistances. I just traded the high and low of the box, nothing else. Money mangement was the key.
100% agree. Keep it simple. I did exactly same as gangsta in my testing. Too many traders try and complicate things imo.
  • #1,876
  • Nov 5, 2009 8:07am Nov 5, 2009 8:07am
Guys, I am "noob" so pls excuse if I am being over zealous. This post is not just about taking, but giving as well, offcourse within the confines of my "experience".

I am taking baby steps on this seemingly simple strategy. To begin with, I am looking at two currencies this week GBD/USD (the "king" of breakout instruments) and the evergreen EUR/USD

I have observed that 12:00 to 14:00 GMT (7-9 am NY time) holds good for GBP/USD, its not really the "ranging" period for EUR/USD. I have found out 10:00-12:00 GMT (or 5-7 am NY time) is the ranging or box period of EUR/USD. Perhaps because Germany starts earlier than GMT?

That's my observation. Would like to hear your views here.

And yes, this is my first post

Many Thanks
Partho
  • #1,877
  • Nov 5, 2009 8:11am Nov 5, 2009 8:11am
Hi Gangsta 1,

I have been backtesting GBP / USD albeit using a different box period from you and here are the results:

Please note that I have only gone back as far as October 2nd so it does not necessarily provide a completely representative sample;

Rules:

a) Use a box between 5.00am and 7.00am GMT

b) I am fortunate to have some software which identifies pivots so if a pivot low or high was formed shortly after 7.00am my entry would be based upon a move above or below this pivot by 1 pip

c) Enter 1 pip above or below prior high or low providing it is in the direction of the Slope Direction indicator from the 1 hr chart

d) Set stop at 17 + spread away from entry point (any less than this and 3 of the winners would be stopped out)

e) Move stop to break even when it has moved 21 pips from entry

f) Exit at 60 pips from entry

Results:

4 Losses giving a loss of 4 positions

4 Stopped out at Breakeven

7 Winners giving a return of 60pips divided by 20pips (stop + spread) = 3 per position

9 No trade (either does not move out of box or moves out of box in opposite direction to Sloping Direction Indicator)

Return excluding breakeven trades 21 - 4 = 17 (average return including breakeven trades 1.13 per position)
  • #1,878
  • Nov 5, 2009 8:23am Nov 5, 2009 8:23am
The point of my last post is this. If we are not fairly "accurate" about our ranging or "box" period, we will have longer bars/candles meaning our stop loss will be further away from trade entry. Meaning, unfavourable RR.

I am not trying to modify the basics of the strategy and I agree with dubaitrader and others that complications are best avoided. I am looking for accurate implementation of the basic principle of this strategy.

Many Thanks
  • #1,879
  • Nov 5, 2009 8:51am Nov 5, 2009 8:51am
Quoting Indyfx
Hi Gangsta 1,

I have been backtesting GBP / USD albeit using a different box period from you and here are the results:

Please note that I have only gone back as far as October 2nd so it does not necessarily provide a completely representative sample;

Rules:

a)...
Any good results are encourageable! I know of a few pivot indicators that plot daily, weekly and monthly pivot points, however I do not trade them although they are profitable if traded correctly. Im slightly confused why you need the box there if you are trading above or below pivot lines??
  • #1,880
  • Nov 5, 2009 8:59am Nov 5, 2009 8:59am
A few people seemed to be concerned about the time of the box ending on the m30 chart. E.g. Do we place orders at 2:00pm London time or do we wait for the 2:00pm candle to close and place are orders at 2:30pm London time.
Well during my testing the box was officially ending at 2:30pm London time so this is when the orders were being placed. In order to compare placing orders at 2:00pm or 2:30pm London time I recorded the results of the GU from 2009 by placing orders at 2:00pm and compared them with my original results where I placed orders at 2:30pm. here are my findings:

TP:50
SL:10
Place order@2:00pm
TOTAL:1090 (NB. By taking profit@75 you would have made 1115pips)

TP:50
SL:10
Place order@2:30pm
TOTAL:1220

As you can see placing the order@2:30pm London time just shades it.
However, this is just for the GU and only 2009, so not gospel.
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