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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #1,841
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:34pm Nov 4, 2009 12:34pm
For me, prices have 3 hrs to 'breakout'. So if nothing has happened by 1730GMT I'll cancel any pending trades.
  • #1,842
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:37pm Nov 4, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting gangsta1
You can use a buffer of 15pips (which includes the spread regardless of how much it is). The results will still be as good. Like I said before, if its going to breakout it is going to break out with power, so if you want to have the buffer further away you can aslong as your TP reflects this. You will see that despite there being more losses than winners, the winners greatly outweigh the losses.

thank youvery much for you suggest, I will change the setup. I put the buffer of 10pips+spread and the risk, some of sl, tp with risk:reward ratio of 1:5 and break even 30 pips.
It would be fantastic if one day that you post the single trade of you backtests, to see the difference with my set, even if I also think the result will be interesting.
  • #1,843
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:39pm Nov 4, 2009 12:39pm
and what about the open trade? I still have the usd/chf open....


Quoting DubaiTrader
For me, prices have 3 hrs to 'breakout'. So if nothing has happened by 1730GMT I'll cancel any pending trades.
  • #1,844
  • Nov 4, 2009 1:00pm Nov 4, 2009 1:00pm
Quoting olachico
and what about the open trade? I still have the usd/chf open....
I have no time limit on open trades. I let them run to TP or SL.
  • #1,845
  • Nov 4, 2009 2:24pm Nov 4, 2009 2:24pm
My 3rd day with this strategy....I love it more and more...

EURUSD had a range higher than 50, didn't make a trade.
USDJPY stopped me out.
USDCHF went fine....
EURJPY was the best today
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forex_4.11.09.jpg Size: 89 KB
  • #1,846
  • Nov 4, 2009 4:05pm Nov 4, 2009 4:05pm
Quoting wa888
Hi gangsta1.

1.I want ask you about the backtest above , because I am confused because in first page , this strategy tell about time being use = 700 to 900 , but is contained 9 bar orf 15m .
I confused about this , it must be said 700 to 0915 strategy (not 700 to 900). am i coreect ?


2. time You used is 12GMT to 14 GMT ( 8 candlle 15M chart or 4 candle 30M chart). No matter summer or winter time in europe or NY. True ?

3 . Now is winter time , why you dont swicht to 13 GMT to 15 GMT ?

Thanks
To be clear, I use London time 12pm to 2pm. I use the box on the m30 and wait for the fifth candle to close at 2.30pm. That is what was used in my backtesting of 09. The results are accurate and I tested them strictly.
  • #1,847
  • Nov 4, 2009 4:21pm Nov 4, 2009 4:21pm
Quoting gangsta1
To be clear, I use London time 12pm to 2pm. I use the box on the m30 and wait for the fifth candle to close at 2.30pm. That is what was used in my backtesting of 09. The results are accurate and I tested them strictly.
The person who invented this method though (as we see on the first post), was talking about M15 not M30.
  • #1,848
  • Nov 4, 2009 4:26pm Nov 4, 2009 4:26pm
Well I set pending orders on all 8 pairs today using the MM from the backtesting. The results were:

E/U: -10
G/U: -10
U/CHF: +50
E/JPY: +50

Total: +80pips

From this and looking back at my testing (which included TP@75 results) I would suggest this alternative money management for this strategy..

TP:75
SL:15
Break Even@+30
**VIP**BUFFER:10 (including spread)
NB: Risk/Reward is still the healthy 1:5

My reasoning behind this is that a buffer of 10pips is large enough to filter a majority of false breakouts whilst also allowing you to place your stop loss just before the breakout line (which can act as support or resistance).
So before we had a 15pip buffer and a SL of 10pips which was 5 above the breakout line. This got us stopped out the GU and EU trades today. Well if the buffer had been 10pips including spread and the SL 15pips (5 below the breakout line) we would have been riding these trades. So results with the alternative settings mentioned above today would have been..

G/U: Break Even
E/U: +75
U/CHF: +Still alive, break even at worst
E/JPY: +75 (15Buffer due to larger spread)

Total: +150pips (not to mention the U/CHF that is still alive)

Now you see what is happening here. We are risking 5 more pips but making a whole lot more. And our risk is still only 15pips. Hope someone finds this useful. Im going to propose if your MM will allow then the optimal settings are:

TP:75
SL:15
Break Even@+30
**VIP**BUFFER:10 (including spread. If spread is too high the increase buffer to accomodate)
NB: Risk/Reward is still the healthy 1:5

..............................................................
  • #1,849
  • Nov 4, 2009 4:28pm Nov 4, 2009 4:28pm
Quoting twamta
The person who invented this method though (as we see on the first post), was talking about M15 not M30.
I dont care what the person who "invented" this method said to use. BTW they did not invent breakout trading, its been around for yonkers. I am my own trader and just trying to help some people who want the help. Dubai Trader mentioned the m30 chart and it seems to filter some false breakouts so I run with it. Kapeesh. If you want to use the m15 charts then thats your prerogative.
  • #1,850
  • Nov 4, 2009 4:59pm Nov 4, 2009 4:59pm
Twamta, Im glad you got to talking about "The Box" (I watched that film today btw!) you got me thinking if the m15 was showing false breakouts as is the m30 albeit less, then maybe h1 is the way forward. After all, the slope direction is followed on the h1.

This leads me to tomorrows task..I will attempt to back test the pairs entering from the h1 box high/low and in the direction of slope using the money mangement both;

TP:50 SL:10
TP:75 SL:15

I will also try to capture the reuslts of a 10pip buffer vs 15pip buffer for each MM strategy.
  • #1,851
  • Nov 4, 2009 5:14pm Nov 4, 2009 5:14pm
Quoting gangsta1
. Hope someone finds this useful. Im going to propose if your MM will allow then the optimal settings are:

TP:75
SL:15
Break Even@+30
**VIP**BUFFER:10 (including spread. If spread is too high the increase buffer to accomodate)
NB: Risk/Reward is still the healthy 1:5

..............................................................
Incredibly useful!

Thanks
  • #1,852
  • Nov 4, 2009 5:18pm Nov 4, 2009 5:18pm
Quoting gangsta1
Twamta, Im glad you got to talking about "The Box" (I watched that film today btw!) you got me thinking if the m15 was showing false breakouts as is the m30 albeit less, then maybe h1 is the way forward. After all, the slope direction is followed on the h1.

This leads me to tomorrows task..I will attempt to back test the pairs entering from the h1 box high/low and in the direction of slope using the money mangement both;

TP:50 SL:10
TP:75 SL:15

I will also try to capture the reuslts of a 10pip buffer vs 15pip buffer for each MM strategy....
Can't wait!
  • #1,853
  • Nov 4, 2009 5:24pm Nov 4, 2009 5:24pm
me also


Quoting Bobcat2
Can't wait!
  • #1,854
  • Nov 4, 2009 6:21pm Nov 4, 2009 6:21pm
Sorry but can i have some explanation about the slope??? What is the slope? And on wishe time frame?

Thanks
  • #1,855
  • Nov 4, 2009 7:00pm Nov 4, 2009 7:00pm
Quoting gangsta1
Twamta, Im glad you got to talking about "The Box" (I watched that film today btw!) you got me thinking if the m15 was showing false breakouts as is the m30 albeit less, then maybe h1 is the way forward. After all, the slope direction is followed on the h1.
Maybe I'm just dumb but I dont get why our results would change if we used a different tf. As long as the box is being created by the high and the low between 7-9 am, then the tf shouldn't matter...
  • #1,856
  • Nov 4, 2009 7:49pm Nov 4, 2009 7:49pm
Quoting DubaiTrader
I have no time limit on open trades. I let them run to TP or SL.

hi sir.

how you set up your sl and tp? if it not hit your tp during that session what you do?

thanks... for help everyone...
  • #1,857
  • Nov 4, 2009 8:23pm Nov 4, 2009 8:23pm
Seeing that the market spends most time in consolidation, one could put it in a box and trade breaks regardless. Also use fibs to see where the S/R is likely to show up, 38,50,62
  • #1,858
  • Nov 4, 2009 9:24pm Nov 4, 2009 9:24pm
Quoting gangsta1
Twamta, Im glad you got to talking about "The Box" (I watched that film today btw!) you got me thinking if the m15 was showing false breakouts as is the m30 albeit less, then maybe h1 is the way forward. After all, the slope direction is followed on the h1.

This leads me to tomorrows task..I will attempt to back test the pairs entering from the h1 box high/low and in the direction of slope using the money mangement both;

TP:50 SL:10
TP:75 SL:15

I will also try to capture the reuslts of a 10pip buffer vs 15pip buffer for each MM strategy....
gangsta1 and gang members,

Ok...for those of us who are continually challenged by the ever-changing time zones and frames, am I correct when I plot my London breakout box (2 1/2 hours in duration) to end at 8:30AM London time?

And the New York breakout box (2 1/2 hours) to end at 8:30AM New York Time?

So who is trading the upcoming London session with gangsta1's recommendation:
2 slope indicator trade direction
10 pip buffer (including spread)
15 pip SL
75 pip TP
BE after +30 pips

Thanks, y'all!
  • #1,859
  • Nov 4, 2009 11:44pm Nov 4, 2009 11:44pm
Quoting gangsta1
Twamta, Im glad you got to talking about "The Box" (I watched that film today btw!) you got me thinking if the m15 was showing false breakouts as is the m30 albeit less, then maybe h1 is the way forward. After all, the slope direction is followed on the h1.

This leads me to tomorrows task..I will attempt to back test the pairs entering from the h1 box high/low and in the direction of slope using the money mangement both;

TP:50 SL:10
TP:75 SL:15

I will also try to capture the reuslts of a 10pip buffer vs 15pip buffer for each MM strategy.
Thanks for all the effort.

It is really appreciated.

  • #1,860
  • Nov 5, 2009 12:57am Nov 5, 2009 12:57am
Dubaitrader and Gansta1 have certainly given this thread new life. This is an excellent strategy that has proven itself to be robust over the years. I have been trading breakouts for a while now and it works well. A similar strategy can also be applied to London opening range session. It works equally well and gives us two great trading opportunities each day to capture nice pips. Well done Dubaitrader and Gansta1, your hardwork and contributions are appreciated.

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