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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #21,361
  • Nov 3, 2009 6:30am Nov 3, 2009 6:30am
Quoting BenStevo
There are indicators for 4 and 5 digit brokers at http://www.fxtradeblog.com. If you look under 'The Method' and then 'Method Tools' you'll find it.

Thanks a lot for that.. also for that site.. amazing... a lot stuff to learn now and to tell some more friends about it
  • #21,362
  • Nov 3, 2009 11:12am Nov 3, 2009 11:12am
Hi all,
I'm looking for a MACD TC confirmation on 1H E/U chart, after strong 4H bearish candle. I think I should also wait for a 365 ema break, for it is now acting as support. Is there any other consideration to make ?
Thanks for any suggestion/review.

Cheers,
Andy
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  • #21,363
  • Nov 3, 2009 7:45pm Nov 3, 2009 7:45pm
Hey Andy,
I saw your trade and I hope you don't mind if I comment. The move had already happened when you were going looking for a TC and the 61% retracement on the daily was at 1.4616. I believe the move from the top was approx 180 pips and had also reached the R2 off of the pivot. Price needs to retrace and get some of the moving averages behind it if it is going to break that retracement level. I posted pictures of my daily and 5 min charts. The daily shows the 38% retracement (but it is actually the 61%...just upside down for the extensions) and the 5 min shows where the pivot's R2 line was. Hope this helps

Quoting andy1969
Hi all,
I'm looking for a MACD TC confirmation on 1H E/U chart, after strong 4H bearish candle. I think I should also wait for a 365 ema break, for it is now acting as support. Is there any other consideration to make ?
Thanks for any suggestion/review.

Cheers,
Andy
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  • #21,364
  • Nov 4, 2009 3:53am Nov 4, 2009 3:53am
Should it go down and really break the previous long term support TL? 50sma @ Daily and PW 1.4830 will be the key points soon.

Hope this helps.
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  • #21,365
  • Nov 4, 2009 5:14am Nov 4, 2009 5:14am
NZDUSD trade I did earlier, sorry couldn't post live but was busy at work.

Entry at 8am close of 4hr candle 0.7214, SL 0.7190 (below 4-8am candle), TP 0.7250 (just about reisistance 0.7235 as a break through that would give a quick move to 0.7250. Had tested this resistance many times so expecting a break with all other majors bullish against USD).
MACD divergance and a break above the downtrendline from 26 Oct were the main reasons for the trade. You will see from the 12-4am candle it tested the breakout level and then gave a nice tail on the candle that gave me confidence we were going to move away from it.

Any questions/comments please feel free.

B
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  • #21,366
  • Nov 4, 2009 3:35pm Nov 4, 2009 3:35pm
Here is a trade I did last night for 80+ pips. On the 4hr chart the 1st vertical line/candle closed above the 8 and 21 MA. I was looking for a the 8 ema to take control. On the 1 hr chart shows the strong bullish candle which I entered on the close. I closed my trade at the resistance line on the 4 hr chart.
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  • #21,367
  • Nov 4, 2009 3:47pm Nov 4, 2009 3:47pm
Awesome trade! Congratz
  • #21,368
  • Nov 4, 2009 5:28pm Nov 4, 2009 5:28pm
Quoting Morelands
Here is a trade I did last night for 80+ pips. On the 4hr chart the 1st vertical line/candle closed above the 8 and 21 MA. I was looking for a the 8 ema to take control. On the 1 hr chart shows the strong bullish candle which I entered on the close. I closed my trade at the resistance line on the 4 hr chart.
I did the same trade using my demo account.

Although the technical side tells us it might go up;
The actual contributor to the price movement may be the news about the service PMI

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=204945

Comes to think of it, it is quite risky to trade while a major news release is going on; what if it turns out to be real bad.

Did you trade before or after the news ?

Regards
  • #21,369
  • Edited 6:27pm Nov 4, 2009 5:37pm | Edited 6:27pm
I closed my trade well before the news. Frankly, I don't pay much attention to the fundamental or news. It actually used to bias me in a direction...long or short. I instead just watch the candles. My advise is pay attention to phillip's trades and Welshguy's videos. They are great. I review Welsh's guy videos, 1-3/night. I've been studying and following this thread for 2 yrs and feel like I'm just begining to get it.
Raymond

Quoting davidwu61
I did the same trade using my demo account.

Although the technical side tells us it might go up;
The actual contributor to the price movement may be the news about the service PMI

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=204945

Comes to think of it, it is quite risky to trade while a major news release is going on; what if it turns out to be real bad.

Did you trade before or after the news ?

Regards
  • #21,370
  • Nov 4, 2009 5:40pm Nov 4, 2009 5:40pm
Quoting pubber
NZDUSD trade I did earlier, sorry couldn't post live but was busy at work.

Entry at 8am close of 4hr candle 0.7214, SL 0.7190 (below 4-8am candle), TP 0.7250 (just about reisistance 0.7235 as a break through that would give a quick move to 0.7250. Had tested this resistance many times so expecting a break with all other majors bullish against USD).
MACD divergance and a break above the downtrendline from 26 Oct were the main reasons for the trade. You will see from the 12-4am candle it tested the breakout level and then gave a nice tail on the...
Nice trade!

Personally, I avoid counter trend trade.

Do you do this often?
What is the successfu rate and average profit (in PIP) for your counter trend trades ?

Thanks
  • #21,371
  • Nov 4, 2009 8:01pm Nov 4, 2009 8:01pm
I knew I had just seen a trade by Welshguy that was like the one I took last night. The date of the trade was July 23rd, GBPUSD.
Raymond

Quoting fxlan
Awesome trade! Congratz
  • #21,372
  • Nov 5, 2009 2:53am Nov 5, 2009 2:53am
Quoting Morelands
Hey Andy,
I saw your trade and I hope you don't mind if I comment. The move had already happened when you were going looking for a TC and the 61% retracement on the daily was at 1.4616. I believe the move from the top was approx 180 pips and had also reached the R2 off of the pivot. Price needs to retrace and get some of the moving averages behind it if it is going to break that retracement level. I posted pictures of my daily and 5 min charts. The daily shows the 38% retracement (but it is actually the 61%...just upside down for the extensions)...
I really appreciate, many thanks for the explanation. I usually understimate importance of pivot lines on daily chart: I must put them back on the daily chart.

Andy
  • #21,373
  • Nov 5, 2009 5:04am Nov 5, 2009 5:04am
Here is some quick thought from me. Hope this helps (and hope this right, too).

All the best.
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  • #21,374
  • Nov 5, 2009 6:28am Nov 5, 2009 6:28am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Here is some quick thought from me. Hope this helps (and hope this right, too).

All the best.
you are right last time,and i am wrong...

when i sell the eurusd ,it is too late .....i lost 140pips
  • #21,375
  • Nov 5, 2009 6:35am Nov 5, 2009 6:35am
Quoting ssq
you are right last time,and i am wrong...

when i sell the eurusd ,it is too late .....i lost 140pips
That's okay. You need to know one golden rule in forex trading, that is:-

Never fall in love in your forex position, and never take revenge when you lost your pips.

All the best mate...
  • #21,376
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:07am Nov 5, 2009 7:07am
Quoting davidwu61
Nice trade!

Personally, I avoid counter trend trade.

Do you do this often?
What is the successfu rate and average profit (in PIP) for your counter trend trades ?

Thanks
I do trade CT on occasions when I can see there are other reasons for the trade, eg the divergence on Macd, a clear break of the down trend line and an ending diagonal.
I also will only trade them when I'm offered a very small S/L of about 20-30 pips as then I'm happy to be out of the market with 30-50 pips. I find that in a CT trade when picked correctly the 30-50 pips come very quickly (within the next 4 hr bar). If it doesn't and time drags out it's a pretty good indication to get out of your trade early or tighten your s/l.

So really, if you can trade with good MM and keep those stops very tight, CT trades can be very lucrative when your awaiting for the trend to develop again.

Cheers

B
  • #21,377
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:26am Nov 5, 2009 9:26am
I could not watch the trade so I set a TP. When I had time to look it just stopped short of my TP before turning around. I closed for +24pips
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  • #21,378
  • Nov 5, 2009 11:22am Nov 5, 2009 11:22am
Hi,

Anyone looking to long the USDCHF at the arrow and the SL at the arrow as well on the next 4hr bar, which opens in abt 1hr and 40 min time? the TP will be at abt the 200ma

Will you guys take it? Let me know what you guys think.

THanks alot for the help guys.

Regards,

Andrew
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  • #21,379
  • Nov 5, 2009 4:30pm Nov 5, 2009 4:30pm
I did a trade (demo) on AUDCAD last night and have some question about it; your comments will be appreciated.

Q1: Shoud I place the 0.0 Fib line on 0.95520 (tail end of the hammer) ?

Q2: This is a short trade; and my reason for this trade (red vertical line on H4 chart) is: (did I miss any thing)

a. the H4 MACD shows red (before price closing)
b. H1 shows 4 shooting starts 2 hours before the trade.
c. H1 MACD and ADX are bearish.

Q3. I made 20-30 pips of profit until the moring star (H1, betwen 2 vertical red lines) forms. I was expecting the price to go down to the lower bollinger band on H4 chart and did not anticipate such strong support. Can you figure out where the support come from ?


If you see anything I did wrong, please let me know as well.

Regards and Thanks

David

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  • #21,380
  • Nov 6, 2009 1:12am Nov 6, 2009 1:12am
TC in audusd,seems its coming up from the daily TL
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