7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

Exactly, only risk what you can afford to. I would not risk more than 3% on one trade and no more than 9% of my overall portfolio.

I back tested October using H1 slope direction, 12-2pm GMT box, only allowing a breakout upto 3 hours max after end of box. Taking entries on m30 chart. Entries were with a 10 pip buffer (+spread in addition to this).

Paris: EU, GU, EJ, A/USD, U/CAD

Results: TP:50 SL:10 = +1150pips
TP:50 SL:50 = +750pips

Don't really understand what you mean....sorry?
Could you explain it with an example? I'am not english speaking.....

Thanks.

Hi Dubai:
I noticed on the charts that you posted that you are using FXDD for your 30 minute charts and FXPro for your 1 hr charts. Is there any reason for that and does it affect your results, which are obviouly excellent so far. Thanks for all of your time and all of your contributions.

Jim

More test results from august and september. Same rules as my last post.

august: TP:50 SL:10 = +920
september: TP:50 SL:10 = +540

A few trades nearly hit the 50 TP so setting a break even could help limit losses. Hope someone finds these results useful!

Hi gangsta1! Your sl is set at the end of the buffer or at the end of the box? Are you manualy backtesting or using a EA???
And how about a trailing? Let's say 25 pips.


Thanks for your results

Hi,

The SL is 10 pips from entry. Entry is High/Low of box +10pip buffer +Spread.
I did not test with a trailing stop in mind as these breakout moves tend to move quickly in one direction. However, to lock in more than break even profit for those moves that turn before 50 pips then I would suggest:

Set break even to +1 @+20 (further test say this would be better at +30), Start Trailing at +25 and Trail by 5 pips. So if trade decides to turn at +40 then you have locked in +16pips. This would be better then hitting your stop loss or breaking even of course, but on the other hand may prevent your trade from breathing. Although in my opinion breakout trades are quick so therefore dont need that much breathing.

I will try and backtest the rest of 09 with the TP:50 SL:10 concept tomorrow and post up my results. It takes time because I am not using an EA. I may look at some other pairs if I get the time!

Glad someone used the results lol!

Thanks for your quick reply. I can't wait to see those results.

Hi Everyone it is very interesting topic and really interesting strategy .i need help as this forum has been going for so long so it would be very hard to go through all of these pages i would be very glad if anyone can jus tell me the basic rules of this strategy in one reply... i know the basics like draw vertical line on 7 am and 9m newyork time and there highest and lowest line with horizontal and once market cross them get in trade but i have been checkin history there are many trades when market goes above highest or below lowest 10 pips and starts moving oppsite direction any solution for gettin safe from these fake signals? thankyou all for your time in advance

Interesting results, however with such a tight stop it's sometimes hard to distinguish if it's been hit or not on a 30 min chart, have you come across this yet?

Could you possibly post results for EU, GU and EJ individually? Looking forward to your work.

I am aware of the 30min chart not showing potential pull backs to the tight 10 pip stop loss. It should be made clear that the 50 pip wins are the ones that come from breakouts that hit the target within a short time frame therefore not having time to hit the stop loss.

A way to check this for yourself is to go back and look at the "real" breakouts. The stop loss I propose is around the edge of the box. You will see that the "real" breakouts rarely touch back to the edge.

Ive started testing the rest of 09. So far I have done EU, GU, EJ, U/CAD, A/USD, UJ and U/CHF the results from January to July are:

EU:

TP:50 SL:10
Wins=17
Losses=25
Profit=+600pips

GU:

TP:50 SL:10
Wins=23
Losses=28
Profit=+870pips (NB: If the take profit was higher@+75pips then total profit would have been +935pips, with 6 less wins/more losses/break evens). If a break even was used (@+30pips) when going for 75pips profit would have been +995pips.

EJ:

TP:50 SL:10
Wins=22
Losses=32
Profit=+780pips (NB: If the take profit loss was higher@+75pips then total profit would have been +905pips, with 5 less wins/more losses/break evens). If a break even was used (@+30pips) when going for 75pips profit would have been +955pips.

U/CAD:

TP:50 SL:10
Wins=25
Losses=28
Profit=+970pips (NB: If the take profit loss was higher@+75pips then total profit would have been +1595pips, with 0 less wins/more losses/break evens). If a break even was used (@+30pips) when going for 75pips profit would have been +1595pips.

A/USD:

TP:50 SL:10
Wins=14
Losses=26
Profit=+440pips (NB: If the take profit loss was higher@+75pips then total profit would have been +535pips, with 3 less wins/more losses/break evens) If a break even was used (@+30pips) when going for 75pips profit would have been +565pips.

The following results are from January until November 2nd 2009.

U/J:

TP:50 SL:10
Wins=25
Losses=33
Profit=+920pips (NB: If the take profit loss was higher@+75pips then total profit would have been +865pips, with 8 less wins/more losses. If a break even was used (@+30pips) when going for 75pips profit would have been +945pips.

U/CHF:

TP:50 SL:10
Wins=21
Losses=39
Profit=+660pips (NB: If the take profit loss was higher@+75pips then total profit would have been +505pips, with 8 less wins/more losses. If a break even was used (@+30pips) when going for 75pips profit would have been +585pips.

NZD/USD:

TP:50 SL:10
Wins=17
Losses=24
Profit=+610pips (NB: If the take profit loss was higher@+75pips then total profit would have been +610pips, with 5 less wins/more losses. If a break even was used (@+30pips) when going for 75pips profit would have been +660pips.


Of course if you had a stop loss of 20-30 pips or even the opposite side of the box there would be less losses. However, the losses that you do get will be bigger and may cancel out the extra wins you would get.

Back to testing. I am not using Excel, just scrap paper, so nothing official to upload! I will try and breakdown the results to individual currencies for you. My god an EA would help here LOL!

Summary of my 2009 manual back testing results for the "BigDog Breakout Session"...

Rules:

Enter 10pips Buffer+Spread from high/low of 12pm to 2pm GMT Box.
Pairs: GU, EU, EJ, UCAD, AUSD, UJ, UCHF, NZDUSD
TP:50 SL:10 (from exact entry price)
Break Even@+30pips
Enter in direction of slopes on h1 timeframe (Thanks to Dubai Trader)

Results:

+8405pips

Hope this is useful to someone!

Yes there are more losses than winners with the opted MM, but the key is the losses are only 10 pips (good for those with small equity) and the wins are 50pips. This is a good Risk:Reward ratio of 1:5. You could optionally go for a +75 TP and make more pips. You would of course have more losses/break even trades, but the profit should work out more as you can see from my previous post of Jan to July testing. It really depends on personal psychology if you can handle more losses and wait for the big "Breakouts". I would say a TP:10 is almost guaranteed but I dont like R:R of 1:1.

Im going to start testing GBP pairs during the London Morning Breakout to see if they are profitable (next page).

ok . fairly new to this game, but going to give this strategy a go when NY
opens. thanks for all posts and advice thats been posted.
going to use EU,GU, see how it works out.
just a small town lad living in ireland, so you won,t hear me if things go wrong
will post results GOOD,BAD OR UGLY

Excellent work, Gangsta, I'll do a bit of backtesting myself to make sure we get roughly the same results. Food for thought!

Just a quick one; What did you class 30/10/09 as on GU?

Okay,

The h1 slopes indicated a downtrend. The pending sell order was placed around 1.64711 (10pip buffer plus spread). This pending order was hit around 15:37GMT and TP:50 was taken at around 15:53GMT.

Sound good to you?

I have different box levels due to the US only being 4 hrs behind the UK who were on GMT. Last week my box formation was 11-1 GMT.

Hi Dubai:
Don't want to be a pain, but was wondering if you had a chance to look at the above question. Just trying to match up my charts to yours and follow along. Thanks for all your time.

Jim

No surprises for guessing the direction I'm looking for today! Short across the board...

Hi Jim,

No reason other than I have FXDD setup for trying new ideas etc away from my main broker. They use the exact same time so it's just a case of flicking between the two.

Thanks Dubai;
That's what I thought, but wanted to clear it up for me and anyone else who might be confused. Continued great success and thanks again.

Jim

Ive added more results to my last post (UJ for all of 2009) and will continue to add more pairs as I get them done.