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AUD/USD

  • #8,241
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:30pm Nov 2, 2009 11:30pm
Quoting nazik
So you trying to say that this drop is cause of banks because thay buying so much aud,hard to believe but myself is north positive too and i still dont understand this stupid drop.thnks for your info.

Something along the lines that the RBA wont raise rates for a while as the 0.5% increase from the past two months is enough for now.
  • #8,242
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:32pm Nov 2, 2009 11:32pm
Quoting toshi
If Oz can find it's way down to ~8950, it will find buyers.

Harmonic pattern in development ...1272 ext to the 786.
(We all know 'em as Gartleys)

I Don't have a pic handy, but draw it out and see how it's unfolding.
Should be easy to spot if you trade HPs.
I think 0,8990 and than rising,it need to finish what it start so lets watch.
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  • #8,243
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:41pm Nov 2, 2009 11:41pm
Quoting nazik
So you trying to say that this drop is cause of banks because thay buying so much aud,hard to believe but myself is north positive too and i still dont understand this stupid drop.thnks for your info.
What's so hard to believe on this drop? The Theory is simple:

During the last month's rate hike the pair rallied over 400 pips on the following days. The last month 400 pip rally was pricing in for the next rate hike of another 0.25pts ( this month) as well.
That means last month's and this months rate hikes are already priced in. Only a .50 + pts rate hike would have created a surprise factor in the market. therefor 0.25 was widely anticipated + already priced in = the market moves down on the release.

This theory applies to every single news release. Eg: Even if RBA hikes the rates by 1pt but if it was widely anticipated the market wouldn't even move. If it was already priced in previously then the markets moves to the opposite side.
  • #8,244
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:44pm Nov 2, 2009 11:44pm
Quoting Spanishfly
What's so hard to believe on this drop? The Theory is simple:

During the last month's rate hike the pair rallied over 400 pips on the following days. The last month 400 pip rally was pricing in for the next rate hike of another 0.25pts ( this month) as well.
That means last month's and this months rate hikes are already priced in. Only a .50 + pts rate hike would have created a surprise factor in the market. therefor 0.25 was widely anticipated + already priced in = the market moves down on the release.

This theory applies to every single...
Thnks will take as good lesson.So what you think it gone go?
  • #8,245
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:50pm Nov 2, 2009 11:50pm
Wait until Euro session Japan is closed today, so very little liquidity in the market maybe we see up 100 in next hour, who knows.
  • #8,246
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:52pm Nov 2, 2009 11:52pm
Quoting nazik
Thnks will take as good lesson.So what you think it gone go?

AUDUSd.. could drop down to 0.8965 - 0.8570. Tough support around that region. I dont rule out a futher drop down to 0.8840 ( bottom of the rising daily channel). This drop must happen as a technical correction from the bullish rally we saw during the last 3 months. keep in mind if the pair fails to break 0.8898 support before Dow Jones open , It will shoot up north during the New york session. until then it will attempt to break to the downside. USD index is set to weaken today.
  • #8,247
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:58pm Nov 2, 2009 11:58pm
Quoting Spanishfly
AUDUSd.. could drop down to 0.8965 - 0.8570. Tough support around that region. I dont rule out a futher drop down to 0.8840 ( bottom of the rising daily channel). This drop must happen as a technical correction from the bullish rally we saw during the last 3 months. keep in mind if the pair fails to break 0.8898 support before Dow Jones open , It will shoot up north during the New york session. until then it will attempt to break to the downside. USD index is set to weaken today.
thnks ll be watching
  • #8,248
  • Nov 3, 2009 12:06am Nov 3, 2009 12:06am
So she went down. I said the on E/U thread after this post but before the announcement that I had feeling they "would Sell the News".

Quoting Leche Mocha
Hard to tell, in all honesty. Down, maybe?
  • #8,249
  • Nov 3, 2009 12:07am Nov 3, 2009 12:07am
I made 8 pips on the Aussie today. Better than a kick in the teeth. Was up 30, so moved my stop above break even, so was stopped out when it dropped without loosing anything. I am up 6 pips on the EUR/USD at the moment.
Making Pips is easy, loosing them is even easier!
  • #8,250
  • Nov 3, 2009 12:08am Nov 3, 2009 12:08am
Quoting Spanishfly
AUDUSd.. could drop down to 0.8965 - 0.8570. Tough support around that region. I dont rule out a futher drop down to 0.8840 ( bottom of the rising daily channel). This drop must happen as a technical correction from the bullish rally we saw during the last 3 months. keep in mind if the pair fails to break 0.8898 support before Dow Jones open , It will shoot up north during the New york session. until then it will attempt to break to the downside. USD index is set to weaken today.
A drop to .8965 is 120 points from just before the announcement. In the days when we had interest rate cut also we rarely saw drops of size in Aud, very rare. I believe the market is a bit subdued but if we can survice the NY session, we will be up tomorrow
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #8,251
  • Nov 3, 2009 12:30am Nov 3, 2009 12:30am
Also worth bearing in mind is that RBA head Stevens gives a speech on Thursday (au time) regarding todays decision and on Friday any market moving information will be in the Statement on Monetary Policy.....3.5% interest rate pretty good for carry trade.
  • #8,252
  • Nov 3, 2009 12:39am Nov 3, 2009 12:39am
Quoting siboy
Also worth bearing in mind is that RBA head Stevens gives a speech on Thursday (au time) regarding todays decision and on Friday any market moving information will be in the Statement on Monetary Policy.....3.5% interest rate pretty good for carry trade.
Thanks for that, I think many forgot to consider the upcoming events with all that distortion in the market.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #8,253
  • Nov 3, 2009 12:42am Nov 3, 2009 12:42am
Quoting tradoholic
Thanks for that, I think many forgot to consider the upcoming events with all that distortion in the market.

Yes it gets to the point whereby the tone of the speech seems as important as the policy laid down.
  • #8,254
  • Nov 3, 2009 12:43am Nov 3, 2009 12:43am
hi all!

anybody is trading gold and oil with decent spreads?

a suggested broker for these commodities?

thank yoU!
  • #8,255
  • Nov 3, 2009 12:48am Nov 3, 2009 12:48am
Quoting tradoholic
A drop to .8965 is 120 points from just before the announcement. In the days when we had interest rate cut also we rarely saw drops of size in Aud, very rare. I believe the market is a bit subdued but if we can survice the NY session, we will be up tomorrow
We had AVERAGE 200 pip move PER DAY for the last 5 days. 120 move is nothing on a very volatile month like this. As you said if it stays above 0.8890 during the NY a large reversal is on the cards. I'm short on both AUDUSD and AUDJPY since 5 days ago. Looking to reverse my positions on AUDUSD and AJ during the late NY session today.
  • #8,256
  • Nov 3, 2009 1:12am Nov 3, 2009 1:12am
Quoting Spanishfly
We had AVERAGE 200 pip move PER DAY for the last 5 days. 120 move is nothing on a very volatile month like this. As you said if it stays above 0.8890 during the NY a large reversal is on the cards. I'm short on both AUDUSD and AUDJPY since 5 days ago. Looking to reverse my positions on AUDUSD and AJ during the late NY session today.
Thanks you help me to bail out and thnks to London i make loosing order into a winning .Time to sleep ,good luck guys
  • #8,257
  • Nov 3, 2009 1:18am Nov 3, 2009 1:18am
Guys, I have been trading in forex for a month now and i've been learning a lot from this forum. I was long on AUDUSD from yday hoping to gain some pips after the cash rate announcment. However, got into deep losses and my stop loss kicked in. I still don't understand why AUDUSD went down so badly. I thought it was "no brainer" situation. Now that I am absolutely wrong, i would like to understand why. Can somebody help me understand?
  • #8,258
  • Nov 3, 2009 1:41am Nov 3, 2009 1:41am
sell stop below LTL and resistance offers very high reward/risk trade. Note that yesterdays high volume upbar was hit with sellers.
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TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #8,259
  • Nov 3, 2009 2:26am Nov 3, 2009 2:26am
Quoting Krab
Guys, I have been trading in forex for a month now and i've been learning a lot from this forum. I was long on AUDUSD from yday hoping to gain some pips after the cash rate announcment. However, got into deep losses and my stop loss kicked in. I still don't understand why AUDUSD went down so badly. I thought it was "no brainer" situation. Now that I am absolutely wrong, i would like to understand why. Can somebody help me understand?
The rate was already priced in, as wel as today we have high risk aversion /=
  • #8,260
  • Nov 3, 2009 4:35am Nov 3, 2009 4:35am
i think it wont stop here at 0.8920 , the stock market will open up in few hours and it ll fall of this dollar rally and it ll put more presure on the AUD , we maybe see it fall 200pip on day close
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