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AUD/USD

  • #8,201
  • Nov 2, 2009 5:05pm Nov 2, 2009 5:05pm
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Hi shahab8b

whats your predisction for today?

i am long from 9010 ...

are you holding any position?
  • #8,202
  • Nov 2, 2009 5:16pm Nov 2, 2009 5:16pm
Quoting puks
Hi Ben,

I would like to discuss this with you. Perhaps I'll send you a PM.

cheers
please do! im glad to answer anyquestion/s
  • #8,203
  • Nov 2, 2009 5:43pm Nov 2, 2009 5:43pm
what will happen to dollar if australi rises key rates?

thank you
  • #8,204
  • Nov 2, 2009 5:48pm Nov 2, 2009 5:48pm
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...erland.svg.png UBS AG
AUD: RBA to hike another 25bps
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will convene on Tuesday. Having embarked on the tightening path in October, the RBA is expected to continue raising interest rates by another 25bps. Given the widening rate differential and a better performing economy, the AUD will be supported in the near term.
AUDUSD: Forecast changes
We change our three, six and 12-month forecasts to 0.95, 0.98 and 0.95 respectively (previously 0.88, 0.92 and 0.92. The AUDUSD remains to be extremely stretched in valuation. However, the widening rate differential against the rest of the world will continue to support carry trades and the pair.
NZDUSD: Forecast changes We change our three, six and 12-month forecasts to 0.75, 0.78 and 0.76 respectively (previously 0.72, 0.72 and 0.75). While the Kiwi will continue to enjoy its commodity and risk link, the RBNZ's rate outlook of a hike only in the H2 of 2010 lends less upside compared to its commodity counterparts.
  • #8,205
  • Nov 2, 2009 5:50pm Nov 2, 2009 5:50pm
Here the rest of the forecast for those interested

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...erland.svg.png UBS AG
USDCHF: Forecast change We leave the EURCHF forecast unchanged and the change in EURUSD forecast leads to USDCHF 0.99, 0.97 and 0.99 in 3, 6 and 12 months (previously 1.01, 1.00 and 0.99). When the US dollar weakens the Swiss National Bank has even stronger incentives to prevent the CHF from strengthening against the EUR.

GBPUSD: Change in forecast We raise our three, six and twelve month forecast of the GBPUSD to 1.66, 1.70 and 1.70, which was previously 1.63, 1.65 and 1.70. We leave the EURGBP unchanged at 0.92. The current benign UK economic environment should ensure that our forecast holds.
EURUSD: Forecast change
We have lifted our three month forecast for EURUSD from 1.50 to 1.53 and lift our six month forecast from 1.53 to 1.57. Twelve months stays at 1.57. Solid economic growth around the globe with little inflation should ensure that the EUR can establish a new base at a stronger level versus the USD.
  • #8,206
  • Nov 2, 2009 6:03pm Nov 2, 2009 6:03pm
Quoting ben10
please do! im glad to answer anyquestion/s
i wish i can understand this strategy ben , can u give us 10 mins of ur time to write in details whats the snowball strategy plz
that will be so helpfull for all of us
  • #8,207
  • Edited 6:18pm Nov 2, 2009 6:04pm | Edited 6:18pm
Quoting G_Man
Hi shahab8b

whats your predisction for today?

i am long from 9010 ...

are you holding any position?
Hi G-Man,
I think we are bearish short term against .9182,
As I wrote on last Thursesday, the support now resistance holds at .9185-80
the 55 EMA 4hr capped the upside for now,
the declining trendline in 4/h and 1hr charts
there is aclassic bullish Divergence on RSI 4/h , but I suspect the up side move will be limited

however, the mid/long term is still bullish technically speaking,
My personal bias is we saw a TOP for now,

I dont have any open position, the rate hike is on the card in next few hours so I try to get short after the spike high with 2* opposit pending Stop Long positions at .9190 to hedge my shorts in case the pair gets crazy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd5.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #8,208
  • Nov 2, 2009 6:14pm Nov 2, 2009 6:14pm
Quoting Jesus4748
i wish i can understand this strategy ben , can u give us 10 mins of ur time to write in details whats the snowball strategy plz
that will be so helpfull for all of us
sorry mate my english is really really bad and bang my head many times to the wall and ask people to find weakness in my theory, i wish you can translate my english to an enlish language, i do mean it.

please pm me and when you understand then you post here for all to see hows that! deal?
  • #8,209
  • Nov 2, 2009 6:21pm Nov 2, 2009 6:21pm
Quoting ben10
sorry mate my english is really really bad and bang my head many times to the wall and ask people to find weakness in my theory, i wish you can translate my english to an enlish language, i do mean it.

please pm me and when you understand then you post here for all to see hows that! deal?
using same pair or synthetic, exploiting the yearly range and trade every minute pipping everytime , if you really serious let put real money 10.000 dollar each so we had 20.000 in capital, i estimate 5000 range pip in aud/usd need 25000 in capital
  • #8,210
  • Nov 2, 2009 6:26pm Nov 2, 2009 6:26pm
Quoting ben10
using same pair or synthetic, exploiting the yearly range and trade every minute pipping everytime , if you really serious let put real money 10.000 dollar each so we had 20.000 in capital, i estimate 5000 range pip in aud/usd need 25000 in capital
to form legal business in australia only need less then 5000 aud and you got evrything covered , 2 share holders, ASIC registration (PTY limited)
  • #8,211
  • Nov 2, 2009 6:28pm Nov 2, 2009 6:28pm
oh boy im waffling again , see you all tonite, Ciao!
  • #8,212
  • Nov 2, 2009 7:19pm Nov 2, 2009 7:19pm
as shahab points out, 0,9180 - 92 is the resistance level to monitor

likely to be tested on a suprise 50bp hike, though market expects 25 points

upside seems anyway limited, and sell on strenght for further downside is still my strategy on AUDUSD
  • #8,213
  • Nov 2, 2009 7:31pm Nov 2, 2009 7:31pm
Quoting fammira
as shahab points out, 0,9180 - 92 is the resistance level to monitor

likely to be tested on a suprise 50bp hike, though market expects 25 points

upside seems anyway limited, and sell on strenght for further downside is still my strategy on AUDUSD
i think so it
the 0.9175 is a kep resistance and i m planning to short there
i ll be so surprised to see it breaking this resistance and if that happened it ll open a new year high appourtunity
  • #8,214
  • Nov 2, 2009 8:05pm Nov 2, 2009 8:05pm
If RBA hikes the rates by 50 bps as some economists have forecasted, expect this pair to see new heights because then there will be strong underlying market sentiment that will boost higher yielding assets purchase.

Market may think the recovery is well underway, well atleast here in Australia, and so on...

I think Uncle Stevens would love to see parity during his career :-)

I am out at the moment but will take a position after seeing market reaction and obviously the rate decision.

if it rises to 25 bps, chances are it coud still fall because that's already been priced in.

with 25 bps hike, supporting commentary will hold the key.

For uptodate information and the entire script, visit www.rba.gov.au

Cheers
  • #8,215
  • Nov 2, 2009 8:10pm Nov 2, 2009 8:10pm
Quoting puks
If RBA hikes the rates by 50 bps as some economists have forecasted, expect this pair to see new heights because then there will be strong underlying market sentiment that will boost higher yielding assets purchase.

Market may think the recovery is well underway, well atleast here in Australia, and so on...

I think Uncle Stevens would love to see parity during his career :-)

I am out at the moment but will take a position after seeing market reaction and obviously the rate decision.

if it rises to 25 bps, chances are it coud still fall because...
How about a possibility of rate holds? :-)
In which I think can't be discounted as higher rate would actually slow down its economy progress which again I think it's still not yet in a solid footstep. Then the pair would fall violently
  • #8,216
  • Nov 2, 2009 8:11pm Nov 2, 2009 8:11pm
I have a feeling pair will make new highs regardles of how many bp they'll hike the r

Quoting puks
If RBA hikes the rates by 50 bps as some economists have forecasted, expect this pair to see new heights because then there will be strong underlying market sentiment that will boost higher yielding assets purchase.

Market may think the recovery is well underway, well atleast here in Australia, and so on...

I think Uncle Stevens would love to see parity during his career :-)

I am out at the moment but will take a position after seeing market reaction and obviously the rate decision.

if it rises to 25 bps, chances are it coud still fall because...
  • #8,217
  • Nov 2, 2009 8:15pm Nov 2, 2009 8:15pm
Quoting dfptommyj
I have a feeling pair will make new highs regardles of how many bp they'll hike the r
for big boys 3.50% overnight thats a lot of mula....
  • #8,218
  • Nov 2, 2009 8:15pm Nov 2, 2009 8:15pm
Quoting puks
If RBA hikes the rates by 50 bps as some economists have forecasted, expect this pair to see new heights because then there will be strong underlying market sentiment that will boost higher yielding assets purchase.

Market may think the recovery is well underway, well atleast here in Australia, and so on...

I think Uncle Stevens would love to see parity during his career :-)

I am out at the moment but will take a position after seeing market reaction and obviously the rate decision.

if it rises to 25 bps, chances are it coud still fall because...
nice review u got there ,, i ll be really confused of the direction of the market if the rate comes out with 25 ,, wether thats gonna be positive or negative
  • #8,219
  • Nov 2, 2009 9:21pm Nov 2, 2009 9:21pm
...Impending slaughter session in 20 mins. As usual a "knee-jerk" aka stop clearing instance will prob. occur.

Will wait until stops are flushed before trading this pair for the rest of the night.

Oh, btw...howdee people.
  • #8,220
  • Nov 2, 2009 9:29pm Nov 2, 2009 9:29pm
AUD/CAD just fluctuated 45 pip wow volatility.
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