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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #7,181
  • Nov 2, 2009 8:58am Nov 2, 2009 8:58am
When doing your end of day analysis, is it advisable to check your monthly and weekly every day when you check your daily or is it recommended to create some sort of quick reference for monthly and weekly analysis.

I.e. An excel spreadsheet showing a couple of sentences on current monthly and weekly charts so you can just read that and go straight to the daily.

I don't mind looking at all of them but I only have one monitor and it's difficult to compare when switching back and forth between time frames and 2 charts on one screen just doesn't do it for me.
  • #7,182
  • Nov 2, 2009 9:12am Nov 2, 2009 9:12am
Hello Strat & everybody,

I got my buy order filled on spot gold. I've been watching spot gold for awhile and I posted a chart aprox 2 weeks and i was expecting a setup to take a trade.
I've placed this order based on following analysis:

Weekly: Boss is bullish. Last week closed high above support and above the trendline/dsri i draw on weekly using close prices. The low of the last week didnt overlap the previous high which which tells me that the bullish momentum is still strong.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Worker: Daily trend is bullish. After the candle that went through support and closed bearish, another candle very bullish engulfed it and closed high above support and above the DSRI. Next candle is a doji that made a HH and HL and it closed above the DSRI. Both candled (Thursday & Friday) closed above 20 EMA.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold_20091102_daily.png Size: 85 KB


My order was a few pips above 1050 and the initial SL was under the support at 1030. The SL is pretty wide but reducing the size of the position, the risk is in my MM parameters.

I value any inputs as I'm still on the path of learning. Thank you.
  • #7,183
  • Edited 12:06pm Nov 2, 2009 11:25am | Edited 12:06pm
Quoting Naws
what about the BOSS? that big BEOB, although it did stop right at that TL
That BEOB was for those just trading candles without any thought for SR levels. The BEOB stopped at support on my data so any short would be selling in to support.

The message sent out by the buyers via the Sunday bars and the respect for my DSRI demand and supply levels at support was too good an opportunity to miss.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,184
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:28am Nov 2, 2009 11:28am
Quoting elitejets
Uh oh I think you are selling yens and I'm buying them. That's what makes a market I guess.
I still like USDJPY short
Looks to me like a re - test of 92.10 at least but there again you know I'm a rebel!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,185
  • Edited 12:07pm Nov 2, 2009 11:30am | Edited 12:07pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
Since we gapped so far down and we know that gaps are most likely to fill.

Does that still make this a valid hammer to trade from?

Take quick profits and get out?

Maybe i am thinking too much but it seems that this may have formed a hammer
only because of the gap?
Trading is NOT for thinkers, Craig. Trading is for those prepared to ACT on opportunities.

Trading is SIMPLE and is for SIMPLE people
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,186
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:38am Nov 2, 2009 11:38am
Quoting Donadoney
Strat you said always ignore Sunday bars. Yes you did leave a caveat. Is today one of those?
For those on The Path of Learning I said ignore Sunday bars.

If I said anywhere that I ignore Sunday bars then I said it wrong. I trade Sunday bars when everything else lines up with them. Sunday bar trading has been so profitable for me that I may have to write out an official strategy for it.

Again, Sunday bar trading is only for those who know what they are doing with them.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,187
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:41am Nov 2, 2009 11:41am
Quoting hcristea
Hello Strat & everybody,

I got my buy order filled on spot gold. I've been watching spot gold for awhile and I posted a chart aprox 2 weeks and i was expecting a setup to take a trade.
I've placed this order based on following analysis:

Weekly: Boss is bullish. Last week closed high above support and above the trendline/dsri i draw on weekly using close prices. The low of the last week didnt overlap the previous high which which tells me that the bullish momentum is still strong.

Attachment

Worker: Daily trend...
On the trade on the Daily chart, where is your Target Price? Seems to me you are buying into that horizontal line you have drawn on the highs of the week before last. The question is: will it break through that level? If it doesn't your Risk:Reward ratio is very high. If it does break through then you would have to watch for the next R level about those highs.

Good luck with it and I hope it breaks through the previous highs level! it may rebound from it, do a retrace and make a second attempt to break through. Not a trade for me as I prefer a better chance of reward for such a large SL Risk. But each to his/her own!
  • #7,188
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:48am Nov 2, 2009 11:48am
All the older guys who have been around trade the longer term TFs. They must know something.
  • #7,189
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:49am Nov 2, 2009 11:49am
Quoting mstandifer
When doing your end of day analysis, is it advisable to check your monthly and weekly every day when you check your daily or is it recommended to create some sort of quick reference for monthly and weekly analysis.

I.e. An excel spreadsheet showing a couple of sentences on current monthly and weekly charts so you can just read that and go straight to the daily.

I don't mind looking at all of them but I only have one monitor and it's difficult to compare when switching back and forth between time frames and 2 charts on one screen just doesn't do...
It's a personal style that you alone have to get comfortable with. I know other traders who keep tabs of the BOSS and BIG BOSS with spreadsheets while others keep a mental picture while still others always check all 3 time frames no matter what.

I used to know where all the higher time frames were before putting on a trade but that was before I followed so many pairs and BEFORE some of the gray matter between my ears turned to porridge!

So now, WHEN I SEE an opportunity on the Worker, I religiously check the BIG BOSS and then the BOSS before executing the trade.

Similarly, WHEN I SEE an opportunity on the BOSS, I ALWAYS consult the BIG BOSS.

Sorry it's not a definitive answer.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,190
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:53am Nov 2, 2009 11:53am
Quoting hcristea
Hello Strat & everybody,

I got my buy order filled on spot gold. I've been watching spot gold for awhile and I posted a chart aprox 2 weeks and i was expecting a setup to take a trade.
I've placed this order based on following analysis:

Weekly: Boss is bullish. Last week closed high above support and above the trendline/dsri i draw on weekly using close prices. The low of the last week didnt overlap the previous high which which tells me that the bullish momentum is still strong.

Attachment

Worker: Daily trend...
Good analysis but watch very closely what PRICE does at that resistance.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,191
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:58am Nov 2, 2009 11:58am
Quoting Blackeagle
And this is how I see it. Daily is from IBFX and weekly has no Sunday bar from another data vendor for Metastock. Since Sunday bars stretch the chart, they make difference on daily. I also see DSRI was broken and I need to see the price above 1.4880 to consider long again or wait for 1.4479 to see PA (trend is still up, that's why I am not taking short).
Trend is still up, that's why I am not taking short

Exactly, which is why I, too, am not short and why I over rode my 100% mechanical SAR system to go short.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,192
  • Nov 2, 2009 12:02pm Nov 2, 2009 12:02pm
Quoting fxterrapin
All the older guys who have been around trade the longer term TFs. They must know something.
Hey less of the "old"!

The flesh may be weak but the spirit is willing - very willing!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,193
  • Nov 2, 2009 12:32pm Nov 2, 2009 12:32pm
Quoting strat
Sorry it's not a definitive answer.
Actually it was definitive enough for me. That's what I was looking for. Thank you.
  • #7,194
  • Nov 2, 2009 12:40pm Nov 2, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
On the trade on the Daily chart, where is your Target Price? Seems to me you are buying into that horizontal line you have drawn on the highs of the week before last. The question is: will it break through that level? If it doesn't your Risk:Reward ratio is very high. If it does break through then you would have to watch for the next R level about those highs.
Hi Lotuselanman,
I have no target price I will go with the price as much as I can.
Yes, there is that resistance at 1064 and there I will look to see what the price does and probably I will tighten the stop and I might move it to BE. If that resistance doesnt hold I might add. I will monitor the candles for now.

Beyond that resistance there are only the round numbers and fib levels above 100.

I'm using Oanda and there I can size my position very well. Even if the SL is so far away I'm able to size my position to take a risk per trade of 1%, 2% precisely. Since i'm on the path of learning, I also take trades with low risk/reward ratio just to experience the setups.
  • #7,195
  • Nov 2, 2009 12:48pm Nov 2, 2009 12:48pm
Quoting strat
Trading is NOT for thinkers, Craig. Trading is for those prepared to ACT on opportunities.

Trading is SIMPLE and is for SIMPLE people
Holy Cow Strat!!! Some words of wisdom in here...

Unfortunately I am a thinker, at leat I think so. Looking back at my trading records and strategies the very most of them are completely useless. But how else to see and believe the good things if you're not experiencing the bad ones...
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,196
  • Edited 12:59pm Nov 2, 2009 12:52pm | Edited 12:59pm
Quoting strat
Good analysis but watch very closely what PRICE does at that resistance.
Thanks Strat, I'll do that. Since the resistance is so close, reading the PA properly will put some (stress free) pressure on me but I'm curious how gold will behave tonight and in the next days.
  • #7,197
  • Edited 1:07pm Nov 2, 2009 1:01pm | Edited 1:07pm
Quoting strat
Now, can we get beyond this and SEE what the market is telling us?

I wasn’t going to say anymore but the parallel with pantomimes is just too much to ignore:
Quoting mstandifer
So my take on this is despite any wishy washy bars or moves by MM, it's still going to go where it was headed to begin with? Daily shenanigans are just that...noise?
I've changed my mind on this. Regardless of what the individual candles are doing right there, the market is still making higher highs and higher lows. Watch what the market does around that support level and if it breaks through watch what it does at DSRI for another potential higher low. PA to show the way.

Is this close?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
  • #7,198
  • Nov 2, 2009 1:20pm Nov 2, 2009 1:20pm
Following on from some of the PMs I have received on Sunday bars:

Sunday bar trading for me is opportunist trading. I ONLY trade them when everything lines up and the opportunity is there for all to see. I always treat them as ATM trades and never anything more. They are not position trades and I always expect to get out at some time on Monday or Tuesday.

There are times however, when a Sunday bar ATM trade turns into a trend trade. For example, I exited my May 15 Sunday bar ATM trade on May 19 after the huge bullish bar only to have to get back in later on to take advantage of the trend.

I learned my lesson and held on to my Sunday bar ATM trade on July 10 for the full trend trade.

So, Sunday bars are very special bars that need special unique analysis. They are not for beginners on The Path. Like everything else, even though everything lines up, they can go the opposite way and hand you your SL.

Often times, the Sunday bars will go against their BOSSES. When this happens, they are usually, but not always, whipped in to shape and brought back in to line by London and New York. This is one of the reasons why Sunday bars are treated and traded differently.

Now for those who are struggling giving profits back to the market, just be thankful you made a profit. When you are in profit say 500 pips and your SL is hit to give you a 350 pip profit, there is NOTHING wrong with that. This is GOOD, DISCIPLINED trading. New traders always torment themselves with the “ifs”, and/or “buts” they would have done something different they would have profited more. Maybe. More likely they would have LOST more. The trick is to be consistent when you have a winning method/strategy. Keep doing the things that make you profit.

When you can accept your profit without tormenting yourself and beating yourself up that you could have made more, you are another step on The Path.

Remember, any profit is better than a loss.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,199
  • Nov 2, 2009 1:29pm Nov 2, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting strat

Remember, any profit is better than a loss.
True that.
  • #7,200
  • Nov 2, 2009 1:53pm Nov 2, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting soso
Holy Cow Strat!!! Some words of wisdom in here...

Unfortunately I am a thinker, at leat I think so. Looking back at my trading records and strategies the very most of them are completely useless. But how else to see and believe the good things if you're not experiencing the bad ones...
Trading is NOT for thinkers, Craig. Trading is for those prepared to ACT on opportunities.

Trading is SIMPLE and is for SIMPLE people

Unfortunately I am a thinker, at least I think so.

You are not alone in this. I constantly fight my technical analytical mind to shut down and just trade what I see. The more I think about the possibilities of a trade, the more my judgment is impaired. Many times, my quick eyeball of a chart and trade is far better than a structured analysis.

This is why I envy young traders and those with no prior trading experience (baggage). They will just follow the rules without thinking and question. Whereas us……………..well, we have matured our trading psyche to know better.

Those Marines and ex – Military personnel were successful in those Futures Trading Competitions for the same reasons – don’t think, just follow the rules.

This is the main reason why I created my strategy around Dr. Joe. Here was a guy whose technical qualifications made mine look like something from Sunday School. Yet, he had the “smarts” or the common sense to know that making money in trading was not about your technical skills or qualifications but just following what the pit traders were doing. He dropped everything technical in favour of just following PRICE.

My basic method/strategy is SIMPLE – just follow PRICE using PASR. My other methods/strategies are more technical but not more profitable.

Again, the most difficult concept for anyone trading to accept is that TRADING IS SIMPLE.

TRADING IS SIMPLE

It is we traders who think we are more clever than the market and think we know more than the market, that make it difficult.

For those of you with technical “bents”, I recommend you adopt two styles of analysis for the short term until you see the light.

First, just eyeball the charts with your Mark I eyeball and write down your analysis. Second, do your usual technical analysis and write down your thinking. Then, over the course of time, monitor each against the market.

I am confident you will be surprised at how accurate your Mark I eyeball analysis is.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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