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Ichimoku forever

  • #5,801
  • Nov 1, 2009 2:46am Nov 1, 2009 2:46am
Quoting dreamtheater
inside is a description
Sorry I cant see no manual inside the zip just the MT4 files
  • #5,802
  • Nov 1, 2009 3:04am Nov 1, 2009 3:04am
Anyone spotted the USDJPY 4h Kumo breakout?
  • #5,803
  • Nov 1, 2009 4:04am Nov 1, 2009 4:04am
Quoting nico28
Hi Sam,

When you say you only trade H1 setup inline with H4 & D1 trend. What exactly you like to see in H4 & D1 ? Pls correct me if I am wrong. When you determine a trend in H4 & d1, do you look at the price above kumo for uptrend or below kumo for down trend only ?

Lets say we have a strong H1 beaish cross of TS over KS while in H4, we can see price trade above kumo but there is a bearish cross of TS with KS & price closed below KS, but overall the price is trading above kumo.

Do you consider this H4 up trend (bullish) or bearish ?

I am...
I will tell you what I do at present, which is:
- to take a strong cross short on H1, I need H4 and Daily price to be below the kumo or I take a kumo exit on H1
- to take a strong cross long on H1, I need H4 and Daily price to be above the kumo or I take a kumo exit on H1.

Your signal above could be a valid signal but I would only take if I knew what the pair was doing. For example, the 1 pair I follow most closely is GBPUSD - I feel comfortable taking alternative signals from ichi on this pair but anything else I prefer H1, H4, and Daily to match, I let itchi give me the strongest signal (my choice).

Once H1 has exited the kumo or had a strong cross, you could instead trade the lower timeframes as per pages 1-10. I will sometimes use the 30min for a better entry.
  • #5,804
  • Nov 1, 2009 4:15am Nov 1, 2009 4:15am
Thanks again San, Every week I am learning something new and correcting something I was doing wrong, There are some great people in this room giving there time to new guys like myself.

This week I am going to only trade strong 1h Ks,Ts crosses with the trend confirmed by 4h and daily

And strong 1h Kumo breakouts confirmed by 4h and daily

Also San could you confirm which pairs you trade?

Thanks again
  • #5,805
  • Edited 4:33am Nov 1, 2009 4:19am | Edited 4:33am
Quoting ichidakiller
Thanks again San, Every week I am learning something new and correcting something I was doing wrong, There are some great people in this room giving there time to new guys like myself.

This week I am going to only trade strong 1h Ks,Ts crosses with the trend confirmed by 4h and daily

And strong 1h Kumo breakouts confirmed by 4h and daily

Also San could you confirm which pairs you trade?

Thanks again
I trade GBPUSD, EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY. I will then look for some other pairs with strong trends and trade those if I see something good including AUD, NZD, CHF, etc. The less knowledge I have of the pair, the more likely I will only take strong signals.

You should note that sometimes to trade a 1hr kumo exit in line with H4 and Daily, you will need to wait for a good retrace or perhaps trade a lower TF. Or you could get a kumo exit, then a bounce off the kumo/Ks as good confirmation.

You can try out different methods on the LFH simulator over a few months (split by month) - that will give you some good statistics.
Perhaps:
1/ 1hr kumo breakouts
2/ 1hr kumo breakouts following H4 and Daily
3/ 1hr kumo breakouts following only H4
4/ 4hr kumo breakouts
5/ 1hr strong crosses
6/ 1hr strong crosses following H4 and Daily
7/ 1hr kumo exits but only trade the confirmation bounce from the kumo/Ks area.
etc.
  • #5,806
  • Nov 1, 2009 4:57am Nov 1, 2009 4:57am
Quoting vic_elc
yes this is the point i was waiting for anybody to comment about it
forget what signal i took forget what system i used forget anything about technical stuff and think pure MM and RM

Profit Trades (% of total): 11 (45.83%)
Loss trades (% of total): 13 (54.17%)

54.17% loss and still my account 30% bigger !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

guys you really need to think about RM and MM again and again till the last day of your trading .

wishing you all a nice weekend
Couple of interesting points for discussion...
I suppose the issue with this is that on a 50:50 system you need to be making more than 1:1 to make money.
It is true that you can manually manage this on each trade you take to get better than 1:1 but on the whole you are relying on the market (in conjunction with ichi) to "give you what the market sees fit", ie it seems that all these trades did not have a TP in mind unless you had a mental TP in your head (the minimum you wanted to achieve)? As long as the winning trades win more than the losing trades then this type of system is fine but it would be good to see some statistics - trade simulator might be good for that.
Without a set TP, you are leaving it up to ichi to let your trade run, which is fine in a trending market but not a ranging one.
  • #5,807
  • Nov 1, 2009 5:58am Nov 1, 2009 5:58am
Quoting SanMiguel
Couple of interesting points for discussion...
I suppose the issue with this is that on a 50:50 system you need to be making more than 1:1 to make money.
It is true that you can manually manage this on each trade you take to get better than 1:1 but on the whole you are relying on the market (in conjunction with ichi) to "give you what the market sees fit", ie it seems that all these trades did not have a TP in mind unless you had a mental TP in your head (the minimum you wanted to achieve)? As long as the winning trades win more than the losing...
thats true , but i guess ichi is specifically designed for trending market , so if a certain pair starts going sideways , we just need to wait until it starts a new trend , in the meantime we can always trade other pairs , and not only currencies im testing ichi on different stocks at the moment and results are pretty impressive . Regarding risk to reward ratio , i agree that TP is basically unpredictable so i guess the only thing we can do is to analize a specific pair , check its average daily range , and average trend lenght . But again this will only give an idea of how much u can get from an average trend . To be honest i dont set a TP either , id rather focus on things that i can control , than on things that are pretty much unpredictable . Surely we can use trendlines , fibs , etc etc to see where we can exit , but in my opinion its always better to let market decide when its time to exit
  • #5,808
  • Nov 1, 2009 6:01am Nov 1, 2009 6:01am
Quoting Iskander
thats true , but i guess ichi is specifically designed for trending market , so if a certain pair starts going sideways , we just need to wait until it starts a new trend , in the meantime we can always trade other pairs , and not only currencies im testing ichi on different stocks at the moment and results are pretty impressive . Regarding risk to reward ratio , i agree that TP is basically unpredictable so i guess the only thing we can do is to analize a specific pair , check its average daily range , and average trend lenght . But again this...
How do we decide when a market is going sideways - which timeframe?
Just seems an interesting point as if we used GBPUSD Daily, which apart from the last few weeks, has been stuck in a range since May/June, then would we trade it? Its ADR is about 200pips daily.
  • #5,809
  • Edited 6:45am Nov 1, 2009 6:16am | Edited 6:45am
Great Advice San

I really really need advice on how to set up the LFH Simulator

I have never used anything like it or even run the strategy tester, is there a website that will explain the whole process?

Thanks

*edit* its cool guys I found instructions
  • #5,810
  • Nov 1, 2009 6:36am Nov 1, 2009 6:36am
Quoting SanMiguel
How do we decide when a market is going sideways - which timeframe?
Just seems an interesting point as if we used GBPUSD Daily, which apart from the last few weeks, has been stuck in a range since May/June, then would we trade it? Its ADR is about 200pips daily.
well it depends on what timeframe r u trading comfortably . On daily gbp usd looks undecided at the moment , but switching back to 4h , picture looks a lot more clear . Again this comes back to how much experience u have with a specific pair . I think 4h and daily will show the main trend most of the time , its just hard to say exactly because every pair is unique in its own way .
  • #5,811
  • Nov 1, 2009 7:17am Nov 1, 2009 7:17am
I do have a question about the LFH SIM, If you are running it on a 1H time frame, how do you check the the trend on the higher timeframes, at the same time of the simulator?
  • #5,812
  • Nov 1, 2009 7:43am Nov 1, 2009 7:43am
Quoting SanMiguel
I will tell you what I do at present, which is:
- to take a strong cross short on H1, I need H4 and Daily price to be below the kumo or I take a kumo exit on H1
- to take a strong cross long on H1, I need H4 and Daily price to be above the kumo or I take a kumo exit on H1.

Your signal above could be a valid signal but I would only take if I knew what the pair was doing. For example, the 1 pair I follow most closely is GBPUSD - I feel comfortable taking alternative signals from ichi on this pair but anything else I prefer H1, H4, and Daily to match,...
Thankyou, sam for sharing what you do.
I always has the trouble where to put SL, if I leave Sl beyond Span B, usually, the risk is rather big. Also sometimes, there are more then difference levels of span B from past , present and future, I am not sure which one should based upon ? How do you set your SL ?

Do you let market decide your exit or you set your Tp ?
  • #5,813
  • Nov 1, 2009 8:00am Nov 1, 2009 8:00am
Quoting ichidakiller
I do have a question about the LFH SIM, If you are running it on a 1H time frame, how do you check the the trend on the higher timeframes, at the same time of the simulator?
ichidakiller, when you unzip the file there is a .pdf description. About your question , I couldn't check the trend on other time frames, this is the negative side
  • #5,814
  • Nov 1, 2009 10:52am Nov 1, 2009 10:52am
Quoting Iskander
well it depends on what timeframe r u trading comfortably . On daily gbp usd looks undecided at the moment , but switching back to 4h , picture looks a lot more clear . Again this comes back to how much experience u have with a specific pair . I think 4h and daily will show the main trend most of the time , its just hard to say exactly because every pair is unique in its own way .
It was a rhetorical question
This is the point, if you know the pair, you know the range, you know the movements, you can take your choices of signals.
If you don't know the pair, it is best to take strong signals in libe with the indicator.
  • #5,815
  • Nov 1, 2009 12:16pm Nov 1, 2009 12:16pm
Guys to cut all the pain i need you to think about this

-24 trades in 1 week with a 1000$ account ( this is pure madness, a crazy trader only will do this with his live account )

-Lost more than 50% of my trades ( which by all means supposed to hurt my account and hurt it very bad )

-30% total profit in 1 week ( which most of us been seeking for years now )

again it is clear at least for me that the well set MM & RM is the key
Ichimoku did help me increase my profit and fine tune my entries , my RM and MM saved me when ichimoku failed .

this is simply a trend following system with a real MM & RM , i was never going to risk more than 2.5% in any trade and i'll try to let it run as much as i can.
i'll do care about the money and ichimoku will do care about the technical issues, it will be my eye there cause i trust it and my MM RM will always be here to save me

this week i am up 30% call it a matter of luck or whatever , but what i know now is that next week i'll be able to risk even up to 10% , and the worst case i'll be down 10% and after all will be up in my account with 20%

if you wonder that i stopped out trades before they hit the SL , this is because i didn't wast the last years studying and practicing technical analysis and all these stuff to come at last and say i'll simply use only MM & RM to win ,no i'll use these years to ensure that my profit will increase now

if you think about trending and ranging market i can assure you that when it is ranging here, it is trending there . if ichimoku failed in the ranging market your MM RM will save u , but when it is the right entry then u have a bloody trend waiting for your money to grow up

we still have more weeks to test and see the results, i'll keep improving the MM RM rules and i wish i can see some contribution from you all

wishing you and me a nice trading week
  • #5,816
  • Nov 1, 2009 12:34pm Nov 1, 2009 12:34pm
Quoting vic_elc
Guys to cut all the pain i need you to think about this

-24 trades in 1 week with a 1000$ account ( this is pure madness, a crazy trader only will do this with his live account )

-Lost more than 50% of my trades ( which...
Hey Vic , thanks for sharing . So the idea now is increasing total amount of risk , as ur profit grows . Lets say that this week wiped out ur 10 % . Would u start next with 2,5 % again ? Or lets say u made 10 % more , so ur profit in 2 weeks is 40 % , what amount of risk will u set now ? I mean do u have an exact amount of fixed risk , that will be set , according to each week's outcome , or u still working on it ?
  • #5,817
  • Nov 1, 2009 12:38pm Nov 1, 2009 12:38pm
Quoting vic_elc
Hey Nico
How are you??, i'll make it simple
assume we have a 1000$ account
2.5%= 25$
1pip=1$

means that when you risk you will not be able to risk more than 25$=25pip , so you will be seeking only position that fulfill this case. SL ALL THE TIME MUST BE 25pip
or you can divide this 2.5% into 5 small position and have a chance up to 250 pip SL
always keep in mind that as large as your SL is as big as your profit is to be .
a position on 4Hrs risk:reward can be 1:3 or even bigger
a position on 1Hr risk:reward can start from 1:1
i leave spanB...
Tks for your reply, vic.

I am really very slow in this. Still didnt get what you try to explain.

Correct me if I am wrong to sum up following:

risk not more then 2.5% on account size. So with your example of $ 1000, never risk SL which is more then 25 pip. What happen if the setup require the SL to be 40 pip beyond the Span B. Does that mean position size has to reduce in order to stay within 2.5% risk ?
But I see from your example, you put in 0.3 lot for every single trade.
I am thinking either position size has to change or we fix Sl at 25 pip every time, again fixing every trade with a 25 pip SL is unreal, what do you think ? Sl should be at the techinical level !
  • #5,818
  • Edited 1:34pm Nov 1, 2009 12:52pm | Edited 1:34pm
Quoting nico28
Tks for your reply, vic.

I am really very slow in this. Still didnt get what you try to explain.

Correct me if I am wrong to sum up following:

risk not more then 2.5% on account size. So with your example of $ 1000, never risk SL which is more then 25 pip. What happen if the setup require the SL to be 40 pip beyond the Span B. Does that mean position size has to reduce in order to stay within 2.5% risk ?
But I see from your example, you put in 0.3 lot for every single trade.
I am thinking either position size has to change or we fix...
forget the example and what i said, i'll tell you a rule you can follow, always think about if you got stopped out in all the positions you are in you will never lose than 2.5% of your account size, you play it the way you like ,reduce ur lot size risk all in one lot use .01 .03 whatever u wanna use , all u need to keep in mind all the time is that the worst thing could happen will be losing 2.5% from your money.

I"LL NEVER LOSE MORE THAN 2.5%

what do you think now ??!!
  • #5,819
  • Nov 1, 2009 12:55pm Nov 1, 2009 12:55pm
Guys I have to say the trade simulator is ace, I have been simulating EURUSD for the past 2 years and feel like I have learnt the pair a lot, I have been trading on 4h with ichi, obviously no idea of daily trend as you can only see the 4h trend.

4h breakouts are not very reliable, but strong trend, Ks, Ts bounces are spot on, really getting a feel for it now

Thanks
  • #5,820
  • Nov 1, 2009 1:22pm Nov 1, 2009 1:22pm
Quoting ichidakiller
I do have a question about the LFH SIM, If you are running it on a 1H time frame, how do you check the the trend on the higher timeframes, at the same time of the simulator?
Can you switch timeframes on the visual chart you are looking at? I think I read somewhere that was one of its limitations. I think you would have to have the charts open separately and scan through. Alternatively, you load up a template with the ichi signal and it tells you what is happening on the other timeframes.
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