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Silent Service Method

  • #5,581
  • Oct 28, 2009 4:10pm Oct 28, 2009 4:10pm
Quoting clockwork71
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5550

This AUD weekly chart caught my attention. (link above)

This is an update to that chart. ****Full disclosure: Due to other positions I had on in my account, I am not in this trade at the moment. I will be looking at P.A. to go short if appropriate.****

I don't like risking too much of my account at one shot, so those of you that are in this trade.....nice one guys. There are a few of the members that are that I know of...

Chris
I'm also interested in this trade and if it breaks through the trendline I've drawn on daily, then I'm in. Until then I shall join you in the audience
  • #5,582
  • Oct 28, 2009 6:19pm Oct 28, 2009 6:19pm
Quoting InfinitySL
BTW Stefx - INT was a good call on your part - never listen to a guy with a pre-existing position...
INT, GGG, MCD, Gold, all shorts are playing nicely. Long ACV is even in the green.
  • #5,583
  • Oct 28, 2009 7:54pm Oct 28, 2009 7:54pm
Is anybody else here watching how these weekly bars are developing?

Even with a strong pushback, we will likely see weekly outside bars on many major pairs. Audusd is already 75% of the way to Chris' projected target. In 3 days. Any yen pair is equally bearish. This does not look like a "correction" of the uptrend to me. It looks like a top.

My 0.02.
  • #5,584
  • Oct 28, 2009 8:38pm Oct 28, 2009 8:38pm
Quoting Low
Is anybody else here watching how these weekly bars are developing?

Even with a strong pushback, we will likely see weekly outside bars on many major pairs. Audusd is already 75% of the way to Chris' projected target. In 3 days. Any yen pair is equally bearish. This does not look like a "correction" of the uptrend to me. It looks like a top.

My 0.02.
I hate to say it's a top.....because as soon as I do, the S&P will be at 1750! But I agree, this could lead to something a little bigger. But truth be known...even a 15% drop on most markets wouldn't be a complete wipe out.

Things are over-bought. Plain and simple.

Chris
  • #5,585
  • Oct 28, 2009 8:46pm Oct 28, 2009 8:46pm
I do feel a little foolish having made the statement, but what's the worst that could happen? I could be wrong?

I won't be the first.LOL.
  • #5,586
  • Oct 28, 2009 9:48pm Oct 28, 2009 9:48pm
Norway raised it's interest rates today. Take a look at this chart, and see why I don't trade the news or pure fundies. If you "newstraded" this - you got whacked.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nok.png Size: 126 KB
  • #5,587
  • Oct 29, 2009 3:46am Oct 29, 2009 3:46am
Quoting clockwork71
Norway raised it's interest rates today. Take a look at this chart, and see why I don't trade the news or pure fundies. If you "newstraded" this - you got whacked.
Hehe nice example. My broker doesn't offer this pair, but I wouldn't be surprised if there was a pinbar at the double bottom on shorter TFs
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #5,588
  • Oct 29, 2009 10:41am Oct 29, 2009 10:41am
Quoting Noloqy
Hehe nice example. My broker doesn't offer this pair, but I wouldn't be surprised if there was a pinbar at the double bottom on shorter TFs
For what it's worth: The chart shot back down today. No surprise really, as it is obvious it's more about the US Dollar than Norway's Krone. Or Krona. Whatever it is...

But that could be said for everything right now, it's about the value of the USD, not the thing you are buying or selling. Almost all commodities are running on this alone right now.

Dollar went down today, and as an example, Corn opens 6 points up......even though there is a lot of it hanging about right now.

Chris
  • #5,589
  • Oct 29, 2009 1:13pm Oct 29, 2009 1:13pm
A pair am CLOSELY wacthing for the close tonight for the following reason:
-PB forming on Swing High
-On Resistance Zone/Area
-50% Fibs
-1.7650 Round Number
-Resistance at the 150ema........
-Target will be the 1.7150 area that has acted as Support before...........

Chart attached. Chris, you had also noted this pair.....i think it is ready to MOVE...................Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad (daily).gif Size: 20 KB
  • #5,590
  • Oct 29, 2009 1:36pm Oct 29, 2009 1:36pm
Similar to my previous, i also noted usdcad........also watching this one, why?
- 2-day Pin forming,
- On Reistsnace Zone / Area
- 38.2% Fibs
- 1.0800 round number
- With trend
- Target should be on the green rectangle.......

Need to keep my eyes open. Chart below. Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad (daily).gif Size: 22 KB
  • #5,591
  • Oct 29, 2009 3:20pm Oct 29, 2009 3:20pm
A stock trade from this morning.....came in to see this at 4:15.....markets are closed.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: td.png Size: 113 KB
  • #5,592
  • Oct 29, 2009 3:26pm Oct 29, 2009 3:26pm
Quoting Danku
Similar to my previous, i also noted usdcad........also watching this one, why?
- 2-day Pin forming,
- On Reistsnace Zone / Area
- 38.2% Fibs
- 1.0800 round number
- With trend
- Target should be on the green rectangle.......

Need to keep my eyes open. Chart below. Cheers
Nice chart.....this one backs up your thinking as well. (About CAD strength)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: poundcad.png Size: 70 KB
  • #5,593
  • Oct 30, 2009 10:07am Oct 30, 2009 10:07am
An interesting day for the CAD. My S/L got hit after going in my direction for 76 Pips........

I am learning quite abit about the short term trends.

Cheers guyz/galz, nice weekend all

Quoting Danku
A pair am CLOSELY wacthing for the close tonight for the following reason:
-PB forming on Swing High
-On Resistance Zone/Area
-50% Fibs
-1.7650 Round Number
-Resistance at the 150ema........
-Target will be the 1.7150 area that has acted as Support before...........

Chart attached. Chris, you had also noted this pair.....i think it is ready to MOVE...................Cheers
  • #5,594
  • Oct 30, 2009 5:40pm Oct 30, 2009 5:40pm
Quoting Danku
An interesting day for the CAD. My S/L got hit after going in my direction for 76 Pips........

I am learning quite abit about the short term trends.

Cheers guyz/galz, nice weekend all

I did a video about this pair last night in the groups forum. I basically said I was waiting for a break below that pinbar from yesterday to short it. Thankfully, I didn't jump the gun. However, I still believe in this trade....and here is why:

The day ended up on yet another pinbar. It also is still at the 50% retrace after all is said and done.

There is still the gap from before. There is also some other confluence as well......

Oil closed at $77. That happens to be support for oil. Cad follows oil a lot of the time.

The UK is still mired in bad GDP, and there is no real sign of it changing....

And then there's another reason that many people wouldn't think of. In fact, I am writing a piece about it to hopefully end up at thestreet.com. (More on that next post...)

Ok...here goes:

If oil finds support.....often the CAD benefits. But another piece of the puzzle is that the USD gets hit. So think about it: USD/CAD should in theory be likely to fall a bit. It will simply take more dollars to buy oil.

So if all things play out, we should have the CAD gaining strength, the USD getting hit a bit, and the GBP falling.

Of course.....I always wait for a technical signal first.....the chart needs to go down for me to sell.

Hopefully that made sense.

Chris
  • #5,595
  • Edited 6:11pm Oct 30, 2009 6:00pm | Edited 6:11pm
I am not positive about the rules on this one, so I will apologize ahead of time if it's not allowed. (Twee......let me know, and I will remove it if need be.)

I have begun to write for http://www.thelfb-forex.com, a news contributor on this site. After talking to the owner for several hours, I found we hit it off really, really well. I wasn't really looking to get into it, and to be honest...I wouldn't have asked.

I was contacted by them, and gave my phone number in response. I found it a bit of an honor to be contacted by them, especially since I have argued their points in the past! He and I spoke for ages it seems on our first phone call. I found that he and I really seem things eye to eye. He made me feel comfortable enough to send a few written articles.

I was impressed when I told him I thought Elliot Wave was useless....and he said: "Good. You weren't contacted to be a clone of our other writers."

So I now am doing some things for them, as well as my group. The group is still my baby, and nothing changes either here, the group, or the rest of my life. I feel extremely lucky in the fact that I am doing more and more of what I love. I love trading. I love teaching. Hell, I am even starting to learn how to write a bit better!

I would have not sent anything to them if the group was threatened. That was rule #1, and they agreed. In fact, there is going to be some changes at the group that make it a bit more personal, and one-on-one for the members.

So anyways.....on to my point. (Sorry, had to have some background info.)

They contribute to http://www.thestreet.com, which is a major site. One of my articles was published there this week. I was a bit shocked.

Just thought I would post a link to it, since I was so proud of myself. (Ok, just let me brag this once! lol)

Ok, thanks for reading this little bit here.....

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10617...et-trader.html
  • #5,596
  • Oct 30, 2009 11:54pm Oct 30, 2009 11:54pm
Quoting clockwork71
...

I have begun to write for http://www.thelfb-forex.com, a news contributor on this site. After talking to the owner for several hours, I found we hit it off really, really well. I wasn't really looking to get into it, and to be honest...I wouldn't have asked. ...
Congrats, Chris and it's inspiring to see you evolving with all that you're passion about as well.

Thank you,
Aaron
  • #5,597
  • Oct 31, 2009 7:46am Oct 31, 2009 7:46am
Quoting Soca
Congrats, Chris and it's inspiring to see you evolving with all that you're passion about as well.

Thank you,
Aaron
Thanks Aaron. That means a lot.

Chris
  • #5,598
  • Oct 31, 2009 12:13pm Oct 31, 2009 12:13pm
Amazing Chris,

Is trading truly the last meritocracy?

You deserve it.

Congrats.
  • #5,599
  • Oct 31, 2009 7:18pm Oct 31, 2009 7:18pm
From 10/18 (two weeks ago):

Quoting InfinitySL
USD/CAD - Long:
I would have liked to see the weekly pin bar close above 1.04, but to me it was above where I had draw the S/R zone in the past. We'll see where this one goes.
If only I were writing to comment on how I had just made 500 pips, sadly that's not the case, however after two weeks, this trade is close to 500pips to the good. Which just goes to show that on weekly trades you shouldn't monitor them on an intra-day basis... I got shaken out of this one prior to its run-up. I'm pleased to see it was a good trade, I'm not pleased with my mental discipline of not getting as much out of it as I could have (or actually *any* of what I could have seeing as this was a loss)...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad-doh.gif Size: 30 KB


Quoting InfinitySL
The 2nd trade I took Late last week (i.e. as close to the "close" of the weekly bar as I could) was on the USD/NOK long:

I like the pin bar right around the 5.5 round number level (where I had previously drawn S/R). The tail went thru 5.5, but closed closer to 5.6 level.
This one was not as much of a home run trade, however if you hung on to it, it's now at 5.72 vs. my entry of around 5.63, however it traded down to around 5.50, so not great risk-reward on that one...

I think better entries (zooming down to the dailys) and slightly smaller positions sizes would have been beneficial in managing the trades, but any trade where you learn something is a good one...

Anyone who took the CAD trade and is sitting pretty right now - I'm jealous!
  • #5,600
  • Oct 31, 2009 7:28pm Oct 31, 2009 7:28pm
infinitysl,

I don't know if you're demo or live, but I created a sub-account just for weekly pins, so they don't even show up on my primary account during the week.

That way I can just ignore it for a bit, cause that's really what they need.

Room to move, without intervention.
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