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  • #7,081
  • Oct 30, 2009 3:59am Oct 30, 2009 3:59am
Quoting soso
Hey people,

Regarding the recent EURUSD SR level, it depends how you draw it, if you draw it through CLOSES as Strat and Blackeagle does then it is not resistance but support.

Open a Weekly line chart and observe how well the 1.481 level is respected. The 2 weeks before both closed above it and current week didnt end yet and price is still above it, meaning it is support. But if today closes clearly under this level then it could mean a longer term bearish reversal considering also the bullish DSRI that could be broken.
On this same line chart...
I agree with you Soso and I do use closes for levels but that level is also the end of the tail of a recent weekly doji, or the tails on the daily that show price reacting to a level should not be ignored.
  • #7,082
  • Oct 30, 2009 4:49am Oct 30, 2009 4:49am
Quoting elitejets
I agree with you Soso and I do use closes for levels but that level is also the end of the tail of a recent weekly doji, or the tails on the daily that show price reacting to a level should not be ignored.
That's true.

I am trying to keep only Weekly SR levels on my chart, if I add dailies I find that it becomes too crowded for my liking...
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,083
  • Oct 30, 2009 6:27am Oct 30, 2009 6:27am
Quoting soso
That's true.

I am trying to keep only Weekly SR levels on my chart, if I add dailies I find that it becomes too crowded for my liking...
I agree. If one isn't careful the whole chart gets so many lines no trade can be taken because there will be a SR line above or below PA boxing one in. That's why I like Blackeagle's charts so much because they are clear, sparse and PA leaps out at me. [No offence to the other top people on here, but Blackeagle's charts were the first one's I saw when working through the posts way back which stood out for their clarity and formatting.]

I think I've got SR line drawing sorted out now, working on the Weekly and then tweeking on the Daily but it is so easy to get tempted into putting on just one more line. I am pretty sure that it is very important to recognise that SR is not exact. There are different feeds and there will be 'slippage' as trading is starting to turn around. Trying to pinpoint the SR lines can lead to trading too early or too late. It is better to recognise that some pips will be lost rather than trying to force precision on something which is the result of millions of decisions by millions of people.

It must be even more difficult at lower TFs!!!
  • #7,084
  • Oct 30, 2009 7:01am Oct 30, 2009 7:01am
Quote
I agree. If one isn't careful the whole chart gets so many lines no trade can be taken because there will be a SR line above or below PA boxing one in. That's why I like Blackeagle's charts so much because they are clear, sparse and PA leaps out at me. [No offence to the other top people on here, but Blackeagle's charts were the first one's I saw when working through the posts way back which stood out for their clarity and formatting.]

I think I've got SR line drawing sorted out now, working on the Weekly and then tweeking on the Daily...

I agree, what we have to remember is that PA is the ultimate deciding factor. If that PA happens on or around a predefined SR level then that just adds to the "validity" of what we are seeing. This makes our decision process a little easier, however we must always remember that price is the deciding factor and will always win out over our lines.

Many Pips to All
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #7,085
  • Edited 7:47am Oct 30, 2009 7:37am | Edited 7:47am
Quoting rgrace
. But it has been unable to really make any significant HH's or HL's. All in all, this is not a perfect trade. It does have more going for it than against it in my opinion.

I will treat this as a counter trend trade, I will not check this trade until near tomorrow's close. I will move stop to break even at that time if it is feasible.
Other than that I will let it run till it hits my stop or my take profit.
After thinking about this trade, and a restless night's sleep. I woke up this morning and looked at the chart and the trade I posted on here. And looking back at the post, I realize this is not a trade I should have taken. It is obvious that the train has been on the turntable, and has been in the process of turning around to go the opposite direction. Here are the problems and obstacles, HH's and HL's on the worker, bullish price action on the Big Boss and Boss, trading into the 50 MA. Triple bottom (Head and Shoulders Formation) on worker. Price has closed above the 20 and 50 and the 20 is turning upwards.

So really the only thing this trade has going for it is the Shooting Star at resistance. I did plan the trade, unfortunately it was the wrong plan.

After thinking about these things and having a nice long talk with the man in the mirror, I have decided to cancel my order for this trade. I hate modifying my orders, and if this was a trade I should have been taking, I would have traded my plan. Even thinking back to the analysis for this trade, I had originally decided against it. I actually had to talk myself into this trade, which is never a good sign. The more I looked the more I convinced myself I should be in it. It may still be a profitable trade, I do not know. But I do know there are too many problems and obstacles for me to want into this trade.

All this being said, I have changed the game plan. I decided to remove my order, and have a good long session talking to the the Holy Grail. My order has not been hit, so no loss. Before my first trade, I am already battling the little man, and the demons of greed, and impatience. These are the areas that I know will either make me or break me, but, I will prevail.
  • #7,086
  • Oct 30, 2009 7:42am Oct 30, 2009 7:42am
I knew that the 1.4700 region was important due to the reasons mentioned in the analysis earlier and was observing the PA there. So at that time I was actually monitoring prices hourly to observe PA and fine tune entry. Once prices had clearly bounced off the trendline I entered with a small SL.

I have exited now before the news and also due to the 1.4850 resistance holding well today.
Quoting ahks
Chanak,

Did you enter EURUSD @ 1.4720 on the 4 HR TF? I didn't see an entry on the Daily charts @ 1.4720.


Luqmanz,

How did you find resistance at 1.4850 on the Weekly TF? Did you change to the line chart to draw the level? The nearest level I found on the Weekly is 1.4800 based on line chart.
  • #7,087
  • Oct 30, 2009 7:54am Oct 30, 2009 7:54am
Quoting Chicky
Hi people,

If you have deviated from these principles since then, let me know so that I do not waste my time here.

This thread is not a waste of time, if you put in the time. This thread is still very much on track. If you go back to the beginning and read and understand each post starting at the first post. You will be well on your way. If you read and understand and make notes of questions to ask, you will be glad you invested the time.
  • #7,088
  • Oct 30, 2009 8:28am Oct 30, 2009 8:28am
Quoting femfam
Blackeagle,

What makes a major SR major and minor SR minor ( how do you diferentiate between them)?

Thanks

Major - Obvious on Weekly, tested and respected continuously in different times
Minor - Mostly recent ones, you can also identify minor ones on weekly or daily, but if they are not obvious on daily, I prefer not to use them to keep the charts clean.
Hope this helps.
  • #7,089
  • Oct 30, 2009 8:35am Oct 30, 2009 8:35am
Quoting soso
Hey people,

Regarding the recent EURUSD SR level, it depends how you draw it, if you draw it through CLOSES as Strat and Blackeagle does then it is not resistance but support.

Open a Weekly line chart and observe how well the 1.481 level is respected.
Since current levels do not have sufficient history, MY SR levels are at 1.4800 and 1.4880, so you can think of it as a thick band. Both are minor, still, but 1.4880 is more major. Even if long term DSRI is broken, unless 1.4477 is penetrated, don't forget, uptrend is still valid. So, my bias is still long.
  • #7,090
  • Edited 8:56am Oct 30, 2009 8:47am | Edited 8:56am
Yesterday's and day before yesterday's bars on USDCAD are unique. Those of the J16 persuasion would call it a 2 day pin but let me tell you...it isn't. So called 2 day pin bars will burn you fast. Will it go down tomorrow...maybe, but maybe not (I wrote that yesterday). Just look at July 1 and 2 and you'll see what I mean. Treat them as individual bars and interpret them in context of the bars around them.

I've seen these enough on every pair to believe they are stop hunts. See the highlights on the chart.
Before you say "It's just trader's reactions to new releases". I disagree. Yes, I know there was one yesterday but I believe there are groups with capital enough to make those kinds of moves and use the news announcements as the catalyst. These moves happen exactly the same elsewhere even without news. If you disagree that's fine too but my opinion (and that's all it is, my opinion) isn't going to change.


So to continue with my watching of this pair:

Big trend still down but current daily trend still up. Yesterday's candle, even though bearish was a HH/HL and closed above the 50 and 20.

Day before yesterday buyers had their way with it but were stopped at 1.0800ish. Yesterday there were no buyers to be found but despite that the sellers were not able to push price below support at 1.0650 or the 50.

With extremely bearish candles like these you would naturally and correctly expect the sellers to remain in control at the next open. That isn't always the case with these stop hunt types. In chop, I've noticed them confirming support or resistance rather than signaling a move down.

Today's candle isn't closed so it could very easily drop before the end of the day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad hunts.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #7,091
  • Edited 9:57am Oct 30, 2009 9:22am | Edited 9:57am
Quoting Blackeagle
Since current levels do not have sufficient history, MY SR levels are at 1.4800 and 1.4880, so you can think of it as a thick band. Both are minor, still, but 1.4880 is more major. Even if long term DSRI is broken, unless 1.4477 is penetrated, don't forget, uptrend is still valid. So, my bias is still long.
Thanks Blackeagle, I assume you took those level out of Daily?

EDIT: One more question, you said the major leves you get them out of Weekly. Do you also pinpoint them on Daily afterwards? Thanks!
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,092
  • Oct 30, 2009 12:36pm Oct 30, 2009 12:36pm
Anybody else watching the shooting star both daily and weekly on the AUD/CAD right here at major resistance. They got within 5 pips of the old high from back in 7/2008
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #7,093
  • Oct 30, 2009 1:19pm Oct 30, 2009 1:19pm
Indeed, today is a day to take a long term view to keep one's perspective! A little extra equity doesn't hurt either
  • #7,094
  • Oct 30, 2009 1:28pm Oct 30, 2009 1:28pm
Quoting mstandifer
I can show you my trading log prior to June. I'm sure that if you match it up to Strat's you'll see where my money went. Ha!

I'm in the process of divesting myself of that improperly spinning quark and am seeking an unclaimed properly spinning one. The way I understand it there's plenty out there to draw from.
I can show you my trading log prior to June. I'm sure that if you match it up to Strat's you'll see where my money went.

Thank you - all donations gratefully accepted!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,095
  • Oct 30, 2009 1:29pm Oct 30, 2009 1:29pm
Agreed, perspective is everything, I shorted a 1/2 lot back on 10/26 with the first ragged SS bar and got lucky today and they gave me the other half right in front of the high....now we sit on our hands and wait
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #7,096
  • Oct 30, 2009 1:49pm Oct 30, 2009 1:49pm
Quoting mstandifer
Quantum theory has always interested me....
Very interesting.

So the bottom line is:

A quark is someone who is not trading with Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,097
  • Oct 30, 2009 1:54pm Oct 30, 2009 1:54pm
Quoting Arnyboy
Perhaps one to look at later?
Don't get sucked in by nice pictures on the Worker. Make sure you check with his BOSS and his BOSS's BOSS before doing anything
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,098
  • Oct 30, 2009 2:25pm Oct 30, 2009 2:25pm
Quoting rgrace
I have looked at my pairs and there is one shooting star and one hammer on my data....
We do have a bond looking hammer though which is a little troubling.

This is where you should have stopped on this pair.

Only trade a pair where the Worker is TURNING or in the trend of it's BOSS and BIG BOSS.

Any time you see CONFLICT between the Worker and BOSSES, move on to another pair.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,099
  • Oct 30, 2009 2:27pm Oct 30, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting AstonDan
I particularly like the monthly AND being above 1.50...
Into tweezer bottoms eh?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,100
  • Oct 30, 2009 2:57pm Oct 30, 2009 2:57pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
I agree....
SR Levels

Everyone:

Remember to identify and draw your SR levels to suit your trading style.

Myself, Blackeagle, Elitejets and Alexandra are basically trend traders to one degree or another and as such identify those SR levels to allow us to get the maximum out of the trend.

We will also take short term trades where we need to identify “closer” SR levels.

When we take ATM trades we need to identify the nearest SR level to our trade initiation level.

Those traders who are just starting out on their trading journey should only be trading from support to 1st resistance or resistance to 1st support and therefore need to identify more SR levels from the Worker in addition to major SR levels from the BOSS and BIG BOSS.

Don’t jump in with both feet and try and trade trends UNTIL you have mastered trading from support to 1st resistance and vice versa. These are usually anywhere from 50 pips to 100 pips depending on the pair and is a very satisfying way to trade.

The advantage of this is that you can keep the head and mind games to a minimum.

The head and mind games escalate exponentially as you move in to trend trading and you must have already demonstrated control of these on smaller and more frequent trades.

So again, choose and identify your SR levels to suit YOUR trading style – not someone else’s.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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