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  • #7,061
  • Oct 29, 2009 4:12pm Oct 29, 2009 4:12pm
This is what I think looks very good. Weekly trend up and Weekly DSRI still alive & kickin'.

Daily BUOB at Weekly SR + Daily DSRI. Next Weekly SR for me is 1.54 meaning something like 500+ pips. In 20 minutes will put my BUY order if still looks good and go to sleep.
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,062
  • Edited 4:25pm Oct 29, 2009 4:21pm | Edited 4:25pm
I have looked at my pairs and there is one shooting star and one hammer on my data. They are inversely correlated so I chose the shooting star. Below is the analysis.

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Let's start with the Big Boss. It is in a definite down trend, the 20 is below the 50 and widening. We do have a bond looking hammer though which is a little troubling.

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BOSS is in a downtrend, it break from that downtrend momentarily. But in the past few weeks it has shown signs that it wants to resume the down trend. Something troubling on this chart as well, there is a bullish engulfing bar. It is banging against the BOSS 20 and 50.

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First things first, I am risking roughly .4% on this trade. It is well within my money management. I know that I may lose that money and have accepted the loss.

And here is the Shooting Star, a very nice looking shooting star off of the 1.6911 ish daily resistance, and very close to bouncing the Boss 20. There are a few obstacles though, the 50 is not too far below where I am at. The 20 has recently turned upwards. It has been making higher lows and higher highs. But it has been unable to really make any significant HH's or HL's. All in all, this is not a perfect trade. It does have more going for it than against it in my opinion.

I will treat this as a counter trend trade, I will not check this trade until near tomorrow's close. I will move stop to break even at that time if it is feasible.
Other than that I will let it run till it hits my stop or my take profit.

The take profit is at the next support level, which I have at 1.6664 ish.
  • #7,063
  • Oct 29, 2009 4:28pm Oct 29, 2009 4:28pm
Quoting Blackeagle
I am not revising major SR lines, they are fixed. But if there is a recent SR level, such as 90.40 level on UJ, then I put a new minor SR and then upgrade it in time as price keep respecting the new SR. I have a grading system from 1 to 5 between minor and major SRs.

Re. how to determine SR levels, zoom out weekly and you'll see the major ones (you can use both line and candle charts, that helps), then drop down to daily and fine tune. Then check daily to see if you have some major missing ones (sometimes weekly does not show them clearly) and...
It helps!Thanks!Now that you mention the grading of SR lines,this sparks many question in my minds on what criteria do you use for different grading...but I know I have to work on my charts myself first.
  • #7,064
  • Oct 29, 2009 4:47pm Oct 29, 2009 4:47pm
Quoting soso
This is what I think looks very good. Weekly trend up and Weekly DSRI still alive & kickin'.

Daily BUOB at Weekly SR + Daily DSRI. Next Weekly SR for me is 1.54 meaning something like 500+ pips. In 20 minutes will put my BUY order if still looks good and go to sleep.
Only BUEB on my Oanda chart, but I agree with the plan for EURUSD.

I also like the position of the hammer on Eurgbp but 0,90 is too near.
I pass also for the Buob on chf/jpy because of the big stop loss and the resistance above.

I am still considering the Buob on GBPJPY sitting on support and MA 50 at 38.2 ret. Above resistance at 151.00 seems strong looking to the monthly.
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  • #7,065
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:43pm Oct 29, 2009 5:43pm
Quoting oblo
I am still considering the Buob on GBPJPY...
I particularly like the monthly AND being above 1.50...
  • #7,066
  • Oct 29, 2009 7:04pm Oct 29, 2009 7:04pm
Quoting strat
Some absolute idiot sent me a link to this! Why? Maybe it’s somebody I pissed off!

IT REALLY WORKS !

Well, at least it wasn't a trading contest.
  • #7,067
  • Oct 29, 2009 7:06pm Oct 29, 2009 7:06pm
stopped the ucad trade after breaking 106.8.for a good profit(and to be safe.). in again if breaks 108.
  • #7,068
  • Oct 29, 2009 7:09pm Oct 29, 2009 7:09pm
Quoting One14
Well, at least it wasn't a trading contest.
haha. our e mails are full of these stuff. strange thing is that it sometimes come from firms with good reputation.
  • #7,069
  • Oct 29, 2009 7:35pm Oct 29, 2009 7:35pm
Quoting soso
This is what I think looks very good. Weekly trend up and Weekly DSRI still alive & kickin'.

Daily BUOB at Weekly SR + Daily DSRI. Next Weekly SR for me is 1.54 meaning something like 500+ pips. In 20 minutes will put my BUY order if still looks good and go to sleep.
nice analysis. i was in also at 147.95. sl147.15.waiting for the reaction at 1.48.60(minor SR).
if it manage so, i will be watching 152.40 area.
  • #7,070
  • Oct 29, 2009 8:12pm Oct 29, 2009 8:12pm
Quoting mstandifer
Quantum theory has always interested me.

I have a theory that explains why you buy at the top and sell at the bottom and say no matter what you did it was going to do the opposite.
Interesting .... I'm a geek as well .. LOL ...
  • #7,071
  • Oct 29, 2009 8:20pm Oct 29, 2009 8:20pm
Quoting Blackeagle
Although longterm DSRI line was broken yesterday, as long as we stay above 1.4480 (previous swing low - HL), my bias is still long. I have 1.4800 minor and 1.4880 more major SRs, so will stay put for now and watch PA around these levels. Re. MA, I am sure Strat will answer that as I don't have that much experience with MAs. Hope this helps.
Thanks for the reply. It seems like there's a bullish price action there. Bullish Engulfing.

But the 1.4850 resistance line worries me. The candle closed below weekly resistance. Will go long only when the price close above that level.

If I go long .. TP will be 1.5000.
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  • #7,072
  • Oct 29, 2009 8:30pm Oct 29, 2009 8:30pm
Quoting soso
This is what I think looks very good. Weekly trend up and Weekly DSRI still alive & kickin'.

Daily BUOB at Weekly SR + Daily DSRI. Next Weekly SR for me is 1.54 meaning something like 500+ pips. In 20 minutes will put my BUY order if still looks good and go to sleep.
Agree with you there, my analysis was the same + add 50% retracement of recent run-up to 1.5060. I already got in the trade at 1.4720 with a stop at 1.4690. Now trailing it with a 50 pips TS.

Feels good. Unlike my GU trade where I got badly whipped.

Cheers,
Pandu
  • #7,073
  • Oct 29, 2009 9:52pm Oct 29, 2009 9:52pm
Big Boss is showing a significant event has, or is occurring. A break of an extremely long lasting DSRI supply line. There are HLs occurring also if one moves to the boss chart.

The Daily PA is very orderly and shows a break of the daily DSRI supply line. However, price must break the grandaddy of resistance at 1.2500 for the bullish case to become more valid? The inverted head and shoulders pattern on the daily is quite convincing. At the moment just watching 1.2500.
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  • #7,074
  • Edited Oct 30, 2009 12:33am Oct 29, 2009 11:36pm | Edited Oct 30, 2009 12:33am
Chanak,

Did you enter EURUSD @ 1.4720 on the 4 HR TF? I didn't see an entry on the Daily charts @ 1.4720.


Luqmanz,

How did you find resistance at 1.4850 on the Weekly TF? Did you change to the line chart to draw the level? The nearest level I found on the Weekly is 1.4800 based on line chart.
  • #7,075
  • Oct 30, 2009 1:07am Oct 30, 2009 1:07am
How do you guys find Strat's system compared to Jacko's?

For EURUSD at present, people using Jacko's system would have entered long at around 1.4700 level. Would be up over 100 pips now.

But for Strat's system, we are still waiting for a long entry on the Daily TF.
  • #7,076
  • Oct 30, 2009 1:10am Oct 30, 2009 1:10am
Quoting ahks
Chanak,

Did you enter EURUSD @ 1.4720 on the 4 HR TF? I didn't see an entry on the Daily charts @ 1.4720.


Luqmanz,

How did you find resistance at 1.4850 on the Weekly TF? Did you change to the line chart to draw the level? The nearest level I found on the Weekly is 1.4800 based on line chart.
Open up your weekly chart and look at the candle dated 21/Sept/2008
Another support is also at 1.4700 on 14/Dec/2008
  • #7,077
  • Oct 30, 2009 2:48am Oct 30, 2009 2:48am
EURUSD resistance.
The resistance they are talking about is the thick turquoise line on my chart. I have it at 1.4840.
It is not a closing price level unless you go back to 24Feb08 and it was a good level Jan-Feb 08.

PS - It is not actually a big thick level on my chart, I just thickened it for this.
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  • #7,078
  • Oct 30, 2009 3:07am Oct 30, 2009 3:07am
Quoting Blackeagle
I am not revising major SR lines, they are fixed. But if there is a recent SR level, such as 90.40 level on UJ, then I put a new minor SR and then upgrade it in time as price keep respecting the new SR. I have a grading system from 1 to 5 between minor and major SRs.

Re. how to determine SR levels, zoom out weekly and you'll see the major ones (you can use both line and candle charts, that helps), then drop down to daily and fine tune. Then check daily to see if you have some major missing ones (sometimes weekly does not show them clearly) and...
Blackeagle,

What makes a major SR major and minor SR minor ( how do you diferentiate between them)?

Thanks
  • #7,079
  • Oct 30, 2009 3:22am Oct 30, 2009 3:22am
Hey people,

Regarding the recent EURUSD SR level, it depends how you draw it, if you draw it through CLOSES as Strat and Blackeagle does then it is not resistance but support.

Open a Weekly line chart and observe how well the 1.481 level is respected. The 2 weeks before both closed above it and current week didnt end yet and price is still above it, meaning it is support. But if today closes clearly under this level then it could mean a longer term bearish reversal considering also the bullish DSRI that could be broken.
On this same line chart you can also observe that the next obvious major level is at 1.54, pretty much space for a bullish run up, if Ms. Market would like to make a bullish move.

So I guess it depends on how everyone looks at the SR levels, CLOSES or TOPS/BOTTOMS.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,080
  • Oct 30, 2009 3:48am Oct 30, 2009 3:48am
Hi people,

I read first post of this thread and instantly decided to make this thread my new home. Kindly let me know if you still follow the principles Strat gave in his excellent opening post.

If I have correctly read them, they are three in number:
1. First Law of Motion
2. Second Law of Motion
3. Third Law of Motion (replacing "equal" in "equal and opposite reaction" with "+/- "50% fib.")

I promise not to piss off Strat.

If you have deviated from these principles since then, let me know so that I do not waste my time here.
The Thief of Wall Street
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