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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #21,301
  • Oct 28, 2009 6:12am Oct 28, 2009 6:12am
I'm in the same trade. If you noticed, it also broke the trendline I posted on my last post, retraced and then began to pull away.
Raymond

Quoting BenStevo
Hi all,
I don't tend to post my trades (tho I probably should to get more input from people). I'm working on my H1 entries so would welcome any input from people....

Have just sold G/U on H1 based on 3 lower highs / 3 sisters. This is in anticipation of TC of H4 where 21 is currently holding as resistance. Entry 1.6330 (current closed bar), TP 1 @ 1.6290 (towards bottom of recent movements). TP2 holding for a longer term trade based on D1 and Weekly short anticipation.

Welcome to comment :-)
  • #21,302
  • Edited 8:51am Oct 28, 2009 8:08am | Edited 8:51am
plz tell me what u think about this trade?
edit : -60pips very fast , i dont know where is my mistake
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  • #21,303
  • Edited 9:22am Oct 28, 2009 8:42am | Edited 9:22am
Hi Behrang,

It seems ok based on 4 Hr system but I just see this post.May be it helps.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=205957

Mike

Edit:We also had US New Home Sales which was worse than expected ...It means weaker US dollar !
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #21,304
  • Oct 28, 2009 8:59am Oct 28, 2009 8:59am
Quoting bshadroo
plz tell me what u think about this trade?
edit : -60pips very fast , i dont know where is my mistake
Hi bshadroo, i got the same trade as yours too... loss in shorting GBPUSD...
Phil, could you help? What's wrong with this trade??? Thank you so much in advance...
  • #21,305
  • Oct 28, 2009 10:38am Oct 28, 2009 10:38am
Quoting hammerhead
Hi bshadroo, i got the same trade as yours too... loss in shorting GBPUSD...
Phil, could you help? What's wrong with this trade??? Thank you so much in advance...
Price was ranging between 6300 and 6400 for last three days. There were two major news coming out at 10 am eastern.

if your trade was based on MACD tc then MACD had given couple same signals before, nice EG off the 21 ema but didn't work out. So it was time to stay away.

if you check daily chart, pair look more towards north now..

Phillip can explain better way.

regard
  • #21,306
  • Oct 28, 2009 10:48am Oct 28, 2009 10:48am
Quoting gujjubond
Price was ranging between 6300 and 6400 for last three days. There were two major news coming out at 10 am eastern.

if your trade was based on MACD tc then MACD had given couple same signals before, nice EG off the 21 ema but didn't work out. So it was time to stay away.

if you check daily chart, pair look more towards north now..

Phillip can explain better way.

regard
u r speaking about ranging but i can see a triangle breakout there ,aso i didnt get invovled for first and second macd signal because price was still in the triangle on that time ,i really hope phillip see this posts and helps us
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  • #21,307
  • Oct 28, 2009 10:56am Oct 28, 2009 10:56am
I took this trade based upon that tail allmost down to the 200sma, round bottom, price is inbetween 89 and 200sma so I was anticipating a move up to the 89sma

One of those that did not worked out.
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  • #21,308
  • Oct 28, 2009 11:14am Oct 28, 2009 11:14am
Attached mp3
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip GbpUsd.zip   406 KB | 535 downloads
  • #21,309
  • Oct 28, 2009 4:33pm Oct 28, 2009 4:33pm
Here is my trade today for BE. I took 1st profit at 1.6290 and set the rest to BE... and that is what happened. The chart is again the 15 min chart showing the break out, price returning to the breakout level, and then moving away The arrow is approx where I entered. Looking forward to Phillip explaination. I think it looked like a good trade that just went bad, but always interested in other opinions.
Raymond
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  • #21,310
  • Oct 28, 2009 4:53pm Oct 28, 2009 4:53pm
Here is an EURUSD trade that worked out...but I don't think I've quite got the system just yet. I see that a trade was posted earlier by PN...for a buy. I was thinking the price would make it's way to the 200ma and one one of reasons why I stayed in during retrace. Stop was above the H4 bar prior to my entry.

I'm also using silent service for identifying major support and resistance....and the turn at 1.50 was predictable. I got stopped out on an earlier short and managed +65 on this trade.

The setup in on my radar for each pair....helping with patience! Thanks to all those who contribute here...I read a bunch of this thread much earlier...but it took a full year and then some to realize the goodness in it.

Still much to learn.

Cheers
CanuckCT

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  • #21,311
  • Oct 28, 2009 5:26pm Oct 28, 2009 5:26pm
I've been following the thread for a while and this week just started the actual trading. Made about 90 pips on Monday and Tuesday on cable and was thinking it was just beginners luck. However, today got long into EURUSD, exact same trade as PN, and made first loss. Gutted at first but at least knowing that PN made the same trade gives me comfort that I have caught something.

I still can't believe that EURUSD went through the 200MA (that was where I had placed my SL), firstly because it was a whole almost 50pips from where I entered, but also it hadn't been broken in a while. Also, a RB had formed nicely last night.

Trying to learn from this trade, PN, is there any way we would have been able to tell that the long was not the way to go? Or is this just one of those you have to take on the chin and move on?
  • #21,312
  • Oct 28, 2009 6:09pm Oct 28, 2009 6:09pm
Been waiting patiently to short this for a while and although I was away and missed Mondays fall I did get on board later. I especially liked how it tagged a 1.618 external retracement on Friday/Monday and then tanked from there. If my Elliot wave count is correct I will hopefully be able to add to the position as per 4H MACD rules. I closed out 1 half after it hit the 200 SMA for 80pips. Rest is floating.

Good Luck All.
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  • #21,313
  • Oct 29, 2009 1:05am Oct 29, 2009 1:05am
lets see whats happening(RB)
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  • #21,314
  • Oct 29, 2009 1:29am Oct 29, 2009 1:29am
Quoting bshadroo
lets see whats happening(RB)
pair has already touched 21ema on 1hr. So becareful it might TC downward.

hope it work out in your favour.
  • #21,315
  • Oct 29, 2009 2:28am Oct 29, 2009 2:28am
Quoting neilbuc
Been waiting patiently to short this for a while and although I was away and missed Mondays fall I did get on board later. I especially liked how it tagged a 1.618 external retracement on Friday/Monday and then tanked from there. If my Elliot wave count is correct I will hopefully be able to add to the position as per 4H MACD rules. I closed out 1 half after it hit the 200 SMA for 80pips. Rest is floating.

Good Luck All.
Neilbuc how did you enter the trade? On the touch of the 8 ema?

A question for everyone. We see we are moving down lets say. How are your feelings towards blind entry on the touch of the 8 or 21 ema?

Thanks
  • #21,316
  • Oct 29, 2009 3:55am Oct 29, 2009 3:55am
Quoting fxlan
Neilbuc how did you enter the trade? On the touch of the 8 ema?

A question for everyone. We see we are moving down lets say. How are your feelings towards blind entry on the touch of the 8 or 21 ema?

Thanks
I didn't want to mention it as its not as per the 4H MACD rules Philip has taught us. I used Dynamic Time & Price and Pattern techniques and entered the short on a break below a swing low. Now this also conincided with a strong Bearish 1H candle (1400 27/10) that moved away from the 89SMA. I display the 4H MA's also on the 1H using the 4H Timeframe.(Someone posted this a while back, maybe Palmer)
I also then expected it to run to the 200SMA, which it did. There were also oppurtunities to enter on 1H TC's and ZB. Which can be good when the market is moving fast. Right now we could see it come back to the 21ema before moving away. Will wait to see what the market shows us.

Oh and I don't normally do any blind entries as that does not comply with my written plan. I have attached my plan just for info. I think everyone needs a plan it can help you avoid emotional trades. Everyones plan will be different and should suit their style. By that I mean if you can watch the market all the time you might look at shorter timeframes e.g Phillip's 5min system.

Regards.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Neil's Plan.doc   21 KB | 762 downloads
  • #21,317
  • Oct 29, 2009 4:17am Oct 29, 2009 4:17am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I took this trade based upon that tail allmost down to the 200sma, round bottom, price is inbetween 89 and 200sma so I was anticipating a move up to the 89sma

One of those that did not worked out.
I really appreciate the candor here as shown by Phillip. Most folks would not show you what trades they did that result in losses.

I took the same trade and it ended in loss but just as Phillip said "one of those that did not work out". I will look out for another high probability trade.

Cheers
"Flow with the market rhythm and the pips will come to you."
  • #21,318
  • Edited 5:25am Oct 29, 2009 5:08am | Edited 5:25am
Quoting fxlan
Neilbuc how did you enter the trade? On the touch of the 8 ema?

A question for everyone. We see we are moving down lets say. How are your feelings towards blind entry on the touch of the 8 or 21 ema?

Thanks
Hi Fxlan,

I have to strongly advise against trading this way. Just like you said it is a 'blind entry', which is a little to close to guessing and hoping for my comfort. If you are purely trading the MACD 4 hour method please wait for the MACD signals for confirmation.

Sure this trade may work out, but If you start pulling the trigger in the way you suggest, without any MACD confirmation, you could open up a whole pandoras box of undisciplined/emotional overtrading and your account will most likely reflect this.

It can be difficult and frustrating to see the market fall like it is and not be involved, but I advise against making these type of 'blind entries'. Patience is the greatest strength of a successful trader, wait for the right setups to come, and trust me there are more than enough.

Just my advice, from my own experiences but please take this into consideration and make up your own mind.

Austrader
The trend is your very wealthy friend
  • #21,319
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:35am Oct 29, 2009 5:35am
Tnx for the comment austrader and for your concerne. I certainly wont start just blindly trading on touch...i am just wondering how and if people are using lower time frames to enter these trades? I am wondering about exact entry...beacuase i am always afraid of lower time frames. They just dont seem valid enough to me.

And did anyone enter RB forming on almost all pairs? I didnt because they were all against quite strong trends...but they all came to 8 ema now and gave the opportunity to put SL to BE or take profits.
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  • #21,320
  • Edited 8:22am Oct 29, 2009 6:17am | Edited 8:22am
Quoting fxlan
Tnx for the comment austrader and for your concerne. I certainly wont start just blindly trading on touch...i am just wondering how and if people are using lower time frames to enter these trades? I am wondering about exact entry...beacuase i am always afraid of lower time frames. They just dont seem valid enough to me.

And did anyone enter RB forming on almost all pairs? I didnt because they were all against quite strong trends...but they all came to 8 ema now and gave the opportunity to put SL to BE or take profits.
Fxlan,

No worries fxlan. If you are looking to learn lower time frames, you should start on the 1 hour early entry method. There is a lot of information on it earlier in this thread.

Personally I use a multi time frame moving average indicator, this keeps all the 4hr moving averages on the 1 hour chart. I then look for possible entries within the 'zone' between the 21EMA and the 8EMA. These entries must be confirmed by the MACD and especially price action. Have a look at the attached chart it is a 1 hour chart of the recent EURUSD action. It is a little clearer to understand with just the 4hr MA's on there. For example now price is in between the 8EMA and 21EMA I might look for a RT and emotional price action for early entry to TC.

For more info on this please see my post at http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=18013

Hope this helps, in understanding the lower timeframes a little better, it did for me.

Austrader

edit: please note I did not take any of these trades. I am posting it here for illustration purposes only. I only occasionaly use this entry method as a tool, and it has taken me a lot of experience to learn when to use it. My main entry method is off the 4hr charts.
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The trend is your very wealthy friend
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