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  • #7,041
  • Edited 5:20am Oct 29, 2009 4:54am | Edited 5:20am
Quoting Blackeagle
And LH's, too, though marginal compared to HL's. More tests, stronger the breakout, I agree.

It is also interesting to note that how price respects the back of DSRI.
Hi guys,

There's a lot of discussion regarding EUR/JPY recently. Some had shorted it and got some profit. I personally did not take this setup although it looks very tempting to me. Here are the reasons:

- I see both on the boss and worker, the pair is trading sideways, no direction for me. AM I WRONG?

- Price on worker has created HH. Breaking the last LH 135.48 which was created on 21.9.2009 . Hence the immediate trend at that time would be BULLISH for me and I was only looking for opportunity to go long. Ideally, a break above 138.50 and a pullback with PA would be the kind of setup I was looking for. AM I WRONG?

- Although nice beob formed on 26.10.2009 at a nice sr area. It's not with the trend. AM I WRONG?

1st recent post discussing about EUR/JPY was by mstandifer on post #6905. Back then, he said he was only looking for a BUY opportunity which I could not agree more.

To be honest, I wasn't at all upset about missing in this big pips if I had sell it. Instead I was happy with my patience, at least I stick to my plan. But at the same time, I'm just confused whether there's anything wrong with what I SEE?

Would be please if you guys could enlighten me. Appreciate the comments.

P/S: any guys there who did not take the Sell Trade base on the same reason as me??

Thanks
Sean
Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #7,042
  • Oct 29, 2009 4:55am Oct 29, 2009 4:55am
Quoting oblo
... I am wondering if those areas that we got looking back into the past should be revised under the light of recent sr areas.

I am not revising major SR lines, they are fixed. But if there is a recent SR level, such as 90.40 level on UJ, then I put a new minor SR and then upgrade it in time as price keep respecting the new SR. I have a grading system from 1 to 5 between minor and major SRs.

Re. how to determine SR levels, zoom out weekly and you'll see the major ones (you can use both line and candle charts, that helps), then drop down to daily and fine tune. Then check daily to see if you have some major missing ones (sometimes weekly does not show them clearly) and put them on. Don't worry about minor ones at this stage. Keep the charts as clear as possible. Hope this helps.
  • #7,043
  • Oct 29, 2009 4:56am Oct 29, 2009 4:56am
Quoting Dabestone
Would be please if you guys could enlighten me. Appreciate the comments.
I can't enlighten you Sean but i could not 'see' a trade on that pair either so i moved on.

Back to the start of the thread with me!
  • #7,044
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:07am Oct 29, 2009 5:07am
Quoting oblo
I still have to work hard on how to identify the S/R, even looking to the weekly closes only I still draw too many lines. I remember an old Blackeagle post where he says that we should not spend too much time looking for a sr area, it should be recognized quiet obviously. I am wondering if those areas that we got looking back into the past should be revised under the light of recent sr areas.
EJ was a missed opportunity for me...
Fear not ... more opportunities will come ...
  • #7,045
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:11am Oct 29, 2009 5:11am
What do we do with Fiber now ... ? It seems like its going to touch 50MA .. I'm thinking of going long when there's a bullish price action near the 50 MA.

I'm wondering if that's a good way to use the 50 MA ?
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  • #7,046
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:13am Oct 29, 2009 5:13am
Quoting AstonDan
I can't enlighten you Sean but i could not 'see' a trade on that pair either so i moved on.

Back to the start of the thread with me!
Alright DAN
Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #7,047
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:17am Oct 29, 2009 5:17am
Quoting strat


Finally there was some light at the end of the tunnel! .......

.

IT REALLY WORKS !


Hmmm to enlighten him..

Due to recent budget cuts and the cost of electricity, gas and oil, as well as current market conditions and the continued decline of the British economy, The Light at the End of the Tunnel has been turned off.


We apologize for the inconvenience

Hi Strat et al,

I'm one of the lurkers at present and will be for a long time I think. Currently reading and re-reading the info on this thread and associated links. Not in any position to add valid comment yet so I will just keep reading and learning.

Keep up the good instructions.

Thanks

Nick.

PS. Career progression for these people

Trader -> Failed trader -> Marketeer (selling hyped up Cr*p)

  • #7,048
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:20am Oct 29, 2009 5:20am
Quoting Dabestone
Hi guys,

There's a lot of discussion regarding EUR/JPY recently. Some had shorted it and got some profit. I personally did not take this setup although it looks very tempting to me. Here are the reasons:

- I see both on the boss and worker, the pair is trading sideways, no direction for me. AM I WRONG?...
Sean,

You are not wrong since you base your decision on "no trend" situation. If you look at the big picture, I agree it has been moving sideways since May. But the range between two SRs on my chart is 700 pips (131-138). If it had been 150-200 pips, I wouldn't have interested in either, especially on Daily tf. Therefore, my game plan is to check PA around SR levels which gives very good RR due to wide range. So PA at SR, break of immediate DSRI and good RR were enough reasons for me to take this trade.
  • #7,049
  • Oct 29, 2009 5:27am Oct 29, 2009 5:27am
Quoting luqmanz
What do we do with Fiber now ... ? It seems like its going to touch 50MA .. I'm thinking of going long when there's a bullish price action near the 50 MA.

I'm wondering if that's a good way to use the 50 MA ?
Although longterm DSRI line was broken yesterday, as long as we stay above 1.4480 (previous swing low - HL), my bias is still long. I have 1.4800 minor and 1.4880 more major SRs, so will stay put for now and watch PA around these levels. Re. MA, I am sure Strat will answer that as I don't have that much experience with MAs. Hope this helps.
  • #7,050
  • Edited 5:39am Oct 29, 2009 5:32am | Edited 5:39am
Quoting Naws
Quote: Originally Posted by strat http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
- You DONT want to stress about your trades
- You DONT want to monitor your screen all day.
- You want to be able to set your trade, return later with a large profit.

Reminds me of this other method I know!
Indeed! Mind you 'this other method' also involves me in around an hour each morning just catching up with the new posts that have arrived overnight !

They seem to multiplying dramatically. Fortunately they are all good stuff!

Good Luck Naws with your trading!!!
  • #7,051
  • Oct 29, 2009 6:08am Oct 29, 2009 6:08am
Just asking
Any body is using take profit?
What's your TP ?
  • #7,052
  • Oct 29, 2009 6:20am Oct 29, 2009 6:20am
Quoting Dabestone
1st recent post discussing about EUR/JPY was by mstandifer on post #6905. Back then, he said he was only looking for a BUY opportunity which I could not agree more.
Quoting Blackeagle
You are not wrong since you base your decision on "no trend" situation.
Also, bear in mind, at least in regards to my post, I'm still learning and my analysis was very textbook and was certainly not Seeing Beyond The Candles even though I stand by that post calling it long...just not for a while. I was looking for a break above the triple top and a retest; I still will.

Since that post, I've had 2 very important Light Bulb Moments.

1. Strat and Blackeagle's comments of zooming out to see the larger picture and paying attention mainly to the swings in the trend (HH HL/LL LH).

2. Most recently after progressing thru the posts to Blackeagle's DSRI section.

Number 1 was the most important for me. Because had I been spending more time reading the thread and not so much time on the charts, I missed the EURJPY trade. However, I would have taken that sell based on my recently acquired Light Bulb number 1:

 

  1. The 3rd daily rejection of price around 138.00 confirmed once again the top end of the range being discussed.
  2. That day's bar, at it's close while not a confirmed swing high, was a bearish engulfing bar and a bearish outside bar and at the right place for a swing high. The next day confirmed it and you could even sold there too by the textbook.
  3. Risk would have been very limited.
  4. Last, price closed down thru current DSRI

I try not to post trades I would have done in hindsight because to me that just looks like I'm playing the 'Me Too' card and they are so easy to see. However, in this case maybe me sharing my mindset would help you in some way.
-m

  • #7,053
  • Edited 7:02am Oct 29, 2009 6:36am | Edited 7:02am
Quoting Dabestone
Hi guys,

There's a lot of discussion regarding EUR/JPY recently. Some had shorted it and got some profit. I personally did not take this setup although it looks very tempting to me. Here are the reasons:

- I see both on the boss and worker, the pair is trading sideways, no direction for me. AM I WRONG?

- Price on worker has created HH. Breaking the last LH 135.48 which was created on 21.9.2009 . Hence the immediate trend at that time would be BULLISH for me and I was only looking for opportunity to go long. Ideally, a break above 138.50...
Once again......From Oct 26 -- http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6831)

So - the question becomes: Are you prepared to buy now?....Have you bought already? Are you waiting for the close?
  • #7,054
  • Oct 29, 2009 7:20am Oct 29, 2009 7:20am
Good Morning, Everyone;

I am looking for suggestions as to a good trial platform to download, to set up a new paper trade account, as I closed my Wizetrade account that I was using for that reason. I am currently using a free charting system from FX Solutions, which I like very much, but the data only goes back as far as 1/03 on the monthly chart. The charting system that I get with MB trading (my current broker account that will be dormant for the foreseeable future) goes back 30 years, but the chart is not very good, it is a beta version and web-based, no way to customize very well, and looks like a tinker-toy compared to the FX Accuchart. I didn't know if there was another broker or service out there that I didn't have to incur yet another monthly bill to use that any of you like using.

Thanks in Advance,

Ez
  • #7,055
  • Oct 29, 2009 8:53am Oct 29, 2009 8:53am
Quoting EzRidr62
Good Morning, Everyone;

I am looking for suggestions as to a good trial platform to download, to set up a new paper trade account, as I closed my Wizetrade account that I was using for that reason. I am currently using a free charting system from FX Solutions, which I like very much, but the data only goes back as far as 1/03 on the monthly chart. The charting system that I get with MB trading (my current broker account that will be dormant for the foreseeable future) goes back 30 years, but the chart is not very good, it is a beta version and...
I would recomend a FXPro demo account. Their data goes back 30 years on most pairs and they have just about every pair also.
  • #7,056
  • Edited 2:20pm Oct 29, 2009 11:09am | Edited 2:20pm
Quantum theory has always interested me.

I have a theory that explains why you buy at the top and sell at the bottom and say no matter what you did it was going to do the opposite.

A quark is one of the smallest particles of matter...even smaller than an electron. There are several types of quarks and they can change from one type to another.

A little thing called quantum entanglement says that if quarks in a group (let's just say 2) are separated, you can't describe one without describing the other; They are entangled. Also, if you describe one, the other one has to have a different description. Oh yeah, a lot of these groups have been separated and guess what? No matter how far apart they are, because of entanglement, if you know what one is doing you know the other is doing the opposite.

Here's the catch about actually observing quarks...if you look at them, they change descriptions! ...and the separated one...yep, no matter how far away it is, it changes descriptions too.

Quantum events are altered by the mere act of observation, meaning if you look at it, it isn't what it was.

OK...here's how it relates to trading:

The very process of thinking is governed by physics (forget consciousness for the moment). Chemicals and structures in the brain made up of earlier mentioned elements and particles.

NewbTrader_A deposits cash with his local forex broker and looks at a few charts. He thinks to himself "hmmm...that's gotta go up" and he hits the buy button. Little does NewbTrader_A realize it but at some point, he attracted and is now carrying one quark of an entangled pair.

As soon as he hits buy, what the...!?!? It went down! By God I'll sell it! He hits sell and it goes up. We've all been there and it happens all the time!

The thought process of trading is a quantum event.

NewbTrader_A just prior to hitting the buy button, observed that particular quantum event and it changed just because he observed it! No matter what he does or when he does it, he will ALWAYS be wrong because it will change...even if he decides to do the opposite of what he thinks should occur (that's the beauty of it).

Here's the kicker

Trader_A1_Strat, right around the time he started getting good, attracted and is now carrying...you guessed it, the other entangled quark matching that of poor NewbTrader_A. No matter what Trader_A1_Strat does, he will always take the other side of NewbTrader_A.

So...the unified theory of quantum trading is this:

For every 95 crappy traders out there, there are 5 good ones that have sucked the entangled pairs the 95 bad ones and no matter what the 95 do the 5 can't help but take the opposite side of their trade.

I've heard that for $197 you can take quark therapy and fix all that.

-m

P.S. If you aren't scientifically inclined or a geek, then you probably won't be interested in this and you don't have to read it. Wait...I put this at the bottom.
  • #7,057
  • Oct 29, 2009 2:47pm Oct 29, 2009 2:47pm
Quoting mstandifer
Quantum theory has always interested me.

I have a theory........
Interesting theory, now prove it. Just kidding, I swear though sometimes it does feel like that is true.

I read the whole post twice, so I guess that proves something about me. I guess I am truly a geek.
  • #7,058
  • Oct 29, 2009 3:15pm Oct 29, 2009 3:15pm
I can show you my trading log prior to June. I'm sure that if you match it up to Strat's you'll see where my money went. Ha!

I'm in the process of divesting myself of that improperly spinning quark and am seeking an unclaimed properly spinning one. The way I understand it there's plenty out there to draw from.
  • #7,059
  • Oct 29, 2009 4:00pm Oct 29, 2009 4:00pm
Perhaps one to look at later?
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Wise men say only fools rush in ...
  • #7,060
  • Oct 29, 2009 4:06pm Oct 29, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting Arnyboy
Perhaps one to look at later?
That SS looks so yummy... BUT! I have 2 Weekly SR levels that are close to it plus the berish DSRI that hold the down move that started in June 30 got really broken. So I'll pass this one...
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
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