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  • #7,001
  • Oct 28, 2009 5:29pm Oct 28, 2009 5:29pm
This is where it comes in to play, Dan. Did you miss this one?
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,002
  • Oct 28, 2009 5:50pm Oct 28, 2009 5:50pm
So, the story is unfolding nicely.

The immediate DSRI demand line has been broken telling us that the buyers have lost momentum and are no longer prepared to support PRICE at the 1.4810 level.

The sellers are now in control UNTIL the ROOT DSRI demand line at 1.4625ish.

Pay attention closely and watch PRICE at this level as it will give us the Inside Track to the next Chapter.
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,003
  • Edited 7:56pm Oct 28, 2009 6:14pm | Edited 7:56pm
Now, EURUSD’s alter ego, USDCHF is still much the weaker of the two.

The buyers are at the immediate DSRI supply level at 1.0264 and we need to see if they can support prices at least up to the 1.0408 level.

Interesting that in these last 3 days, the sellers have been nowhere to be seen! Is this a sign? Better go out tonight and look in the sky for inspiration.

We can see from the large distance that PRICE is below the ROOT DSRI supply line that buyers have a long way to go before they can challenge the sellers for control of this pair.

There is so much more to be gained from looking at this chart especially if you read the two together.
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,004
  • Oct 28, 2009 7:50pm Oct 28, 2009 7:50pm
Rgrace, good luck as you embark on your journey. I've read these pages to 322 now and I feel as though I've been here all along seeing your posts. You'll do well.
-m
  • #7,005
  • Oct 28, 2009 8:00pm Oct 28, 2009 8:00pm
Would someone answer a quick question for me, as I delve further into learning about PA....I started reading J16's thread and looking at his early pages where he has charts posted with circles around DBHLC, DBLHC bars. As I look at a recent example of what I think could be a DBLHC on the GBP/USD Daily of yesterday and day before, I would appreciate anyone telling me if it qualifies? I have not as yet learned the formal rule regarding these candles/bars ...the only reason for my ? is that I just took a loss on it, my last official live trade that was taken before I decided to stop and go back to paper trading, that is, after I learn to crawl again. This time, with new direction. I ended my Wizetrade subscription today, erased all my indicators off my charts, and am going to take things slower now, and learn this method as best I can. It feels strange to cut my 1st year's "umbilical cord", as it may, as it was most of what I knew about trading, which wasn't much. But, it got me to start asking what else existed outside their walls, which were very confining and one-sided. Your input would be much appreciated.

Ez
  • #7,006
  • Edited 8:23pm Oct 28, 2009 8:07pm | Edited 8:23pm
Quoting EzRidr62
Would someone answer a quick question for me, as I delve further into learning about PA....I started reading J16's thread and looking at his early pages where he has charts posted with circles around DBHLC, DBLHC bars. As I look at a recent example of what I think could be a DBLHC on the GBP/USD Daily of yesterday and day before, I would appreciate anyone telling me if it qualifies? I have not as yet learned the formal rule regarding these candles/bars ...the only reason for my ? is that I just took a loss on it, my last official live trade that...

On my data, it is not a higher close. On my data it is a double low, but the close is lower than the close of the day before. Remember, you are looking at the close not the high of the bar. Of course, your data may be different than my feed. If you would post a chart of your feed with the bars highlighted it would help. The close of October 27 on my feed was 1.6392, the close of October 28 on my feed was 1.6373. Also if you were following Strat's rules you would not be in that trade yet, and definitely not stopped out, even if it was valid price action.


And congratulations on getting rid of those indicators, I think you will like it better and have a better understanding of the market. I am still very early on the path as well, a lot of major AHAH! moments ahead of you. And I am sure that there are many more ahead of me as well.
  • #7,007
  • Oct 28, 2009 8:22pm Oct 28, 2009 8:22pm
Quoting EzRidr62
Would someone answer a quick question for me, as I delve further into learning about PA....I started reading J16's thread and looking at his early pages where he has charts posted with circles around DBHLC, DBLHC bars. As I look at a recent example of what I think could be a DBLHC on the GBP/USD Daily of yesterday and day before, I would appreciate anyone telling me if it qualifies? I have not as yet learned the formal rule regarding these candles/bars ...the only reason for my ? is that I just took a loss on it, my last official live trade that...
As I look at a recent example of what I think could be a DBLHC on the GBP/USD Daily of yesterday and day before, I would appreciate anyone telling me if it qualifies?

Without you posting a chart and identifying the bars you refer to I can only guess you are referring to the Oct 26 & 27 bars.

On my data, neither are DBLHC.

But incorrect recognition of candles is not the problem here.

Do you see that HUGE, LONG RED bar on October 23?

Do you think it might be telling you something?

Does the fact that it hit major resistance tell you anything?

Does the fact that it produced a double top in a downtrend tell you anything?

Look to the left at similar situations – was there any reason to buy then?

When you piss into the wind, what happens?

Forget these and other candles and ONLY focus on the two reversal bars I suggest – HAMMER & SHOOTING STAR.

Learn these BEFORE anything else. When you can successfully and profitably trade these with your eyes closed hanging upside down from the Eiffel Tower then move on to other bars.

But be careful of the bars in Monte Marte, you could end up with a Bond girl!!!!!!!!!!!!!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,008
  • Oct 28, 2009 8:40pm Oct 28, 2009 8:40pm
Quoting soso
I'm thinking why would you consider that a new uptrend might emerge...
On Weekly chart, Oct-2009 low is higher than Dec-2008 and Jan-2009 lows which is an encouraging sign for start of an uptrend but we need a HH to increase the odds. But HH we are talking about is at 101.45 which is too far away from current price. So the game plan should be to drop down to Daily tf and trade immediate trend (that's why I took long trade from 90.80 to 92.30 and posted here about it when Alexandra asked).

Since 7/10/2009 low at 87.98, price is making HH-HL on daily but couldn't manage to break 21/9/2009 high at 92.53. Considering we have an SR line at 92.30, close of 27/10 at 91.78 was a definite short signal and for the ones who uses preset TP, your TP should have been somewhere around 90.40 where we have another SR (trading from first R to first S). Otherwise, you should be still holding your short and watching PA between 90.00-90.40.

I preferred EJ short trade which I took at the close of 26/10 bar @137.04 due to much better RR.

I am not trying to show how profitable my trades are (passed that point years ago). If you work on above trades, you'll see how simple trading is if you use HH-HL analysis, SRs and PA.
  • #7,009
  • Oct 28, 2009 8:43pm Oct 28, 2009 8:43pm
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Sorry, Grace, I forgot there are different closes depending on location. My close of day is at 5:00 PM, EST. Thank You for looking.

Ez
  • #7,010
  • Edited 9:00pm Oct 28, 2009 8:45pm | Edited 9:00pm
Quoting Blackeagle
On Weekly chart, Oct-2009 low is higher than Dec-2008 and Jan-2009 lows which is an encouraging sign for start of an uptrend but we need a HH to increase the odds. But HH we are talking about is at 101.45 which is too far away from current price. So the game plan should be to drop down to Daily tf and trade immediate trend (that's why I took long trade from 90.80 to 92.30 and posted here about it when Alexandra asked).

Since 7/10/2009 low at 87.98, price is making HH-HL on daily but couldn't manage to break 21/9/2009 high at 92.53. Considering...

Agreed. I might add that E/J is doing the classic thing of overshooting relative to USDJPY. Some of that reflects EUR correction in general, but that kind of action often makes it the prefered countertrend entry, even if predisposed the other direction longer term. FWIW, I have exited short E/J at this point, though conceivably a bit early. (E/J has passed the 50 fibo, though USDJPY has not). LOL - Apparently I too am running naked at this point!

It is worth noting, given the S&P-related posts above, that E/Y again reflects (predicts?) that market as well. (From Oct 26 -- http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6831)
  • #7,011
  • Oct 28, 2009 8:54pm Oct 28, 2009 8:54pm
Quoting strat
As I look at a recent example of what I think could be a DBLHC on the GBP/USD Daily of yesterday and day before, I would appreciate anyone telling me if it qualifies?

Without you posting a chart and identifying the bars you refer to I can only guess you are referring to the Oct 26 & 27 bars.

On my data, neither are DBLHC.

But incorrect recognition of candles is not the problem here.

[font=Arial]Do you see that HUGE, LONG RED bar on October...

Sir:

Yes, I saw that long red bar.....that was the bar that I acted upon, that very same bar that I saw BEFORE finding this thread, the bar I shorted after which is why I was stopped out, the bar that caused my WiseT charts to go red and caused me to yet again chase ghosts that never materialize. This is exactly why I am on a quest for something that has a better chance of working. I have much to learn, it is as if the past year taught me nothing more than a good sense of humility and how to lose and come back for more. It has also stirred up a very deep desire to learn this, come hell or high water. Thank you for your input. I appreciate the constructive criticism and details of where I should know to look. Like others who save their biggest failures as lessons, this is probably going to be mine, if I'm lucky.


Ez
  • #7,012
  • Oct 28, 2009 8:56pm Oct 28, 2009 8:56pm
Quoting EzRidr62
Attachment

Sorry, Grace, I forgot there are different closes depending on location. My close of day is at 5:00 PM, EST. Thank You for looking.

Ez

That would be a DBLHC, but there is a missing element on your chart. PASR (Price Action at Support or Resistance). There are no support and resistance lines on your chart. From my glance at my chart it does appear to be near a support level. Read Strat's post and follow his direction and you will be on your way. And again if you were following Strat's trading, you would have entered above the high of that candle. Which means you would not be entered into it yet and definitely not stopped out.
  • #7,013
  • Oct 28, 2009 8:57pm Oct 28, 2009 8:57pm
Quoting Blackeagle
On Weekly chart, Oct-2009 low is higher than Dec-2008 and Jan-2009 lows which is an encouraging sign for start of an uptrend but we need a HH to increase the odds. But HH we are talking about is at 101.45 which is too far away from current price. So the game plan should be to drop down to Daily tf and trade immediate trend (that's why I took long trade from 90.80 to 92.30 and posted here about it when Alexandra asked).

Since 7/10/2009 low at 87.98, price is making HH-HL on daily but couldn't manage to break 21/9/2009 high at 92.53. Considering...
I preferred EJ short trade which I took at the close of 26/10 bar @137.04 due to much better RR.

Yet again my friend we are in absolute harmony. I was going to trade off the Sunday bar but the rest of the JPY pairs were not lined up properly so I waited for the confirmation from the Oct 26 bar.

.........see how simple trading is if you use HH-HL analysis, SRs and PA.

If we keep telling them, do you think eventually they will get the message? I can only guess that its the simplicity that makes it difficult!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,014
  • Oct 28, 2009 9:00pm Oct 28, 2009 9:00pm
Quoting strat
AUDCAD – so, did you take notice of posts #6912 and #6913
Sure did!

Exited position on the break of the 10/27 candle.
  • #7,015
  • Oct 28, 2009 9:02pm Oct 28, 2009 9:02pm
Quoting EzRidr62
Sir:

Yes, I saw that long red bar.....that was the bar that I acted upon, that very same bar that I saw BEFORE finding this thread, the bar I shorted after which is why I was stopped out, the bar that caused my WiseT charts to go red and caused me to yet again chase ghosts that never materialize. This is exactly why I am on a quest for something that has a better chance of working. I have much to learn, it is as if the past year taught me nothing more than a good sense of humility and how to lose and come back for more. It has also...
Now, come on, NO sirs on here, least of all me!

If you haven't done already, for your own good and betterment as a trader, STOP TRADING and go to the beginning of The Path of Learning and read and UNDERSTAND. When you get back to this post, you should be a better trader.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,016
  • Oct 28, 2009 9:03pm Oct 28, 2009 9:03pm
Quoting Alexandra
Agreed. I might add that E/J is doing the classic thing of overshooting relative to USDJPY. Some of that reflects EUR correction in general, but that kind of action often makes it the prefered countertrend entry, even if predisposed the other direction longer term. FWIW, I have exited short E/J at this point, though conceivably a bit early. (E/J has passed the 50 fibo, though USDJPY has not). LOL - Apparently I too am running naked at this point!
Unless 5/6/2009 high or 8/7/2009 low is broken, my game plan on EJ is range trading between 131 and 138, and it worked perfectly 4 times since June and 5th is on the way.
  • #7,017
  • Oct 28, 2009 9:05pm Oct 28, 2009 9:05pm
Quoting Alexandra
Agreed. I might add that E/J is doing the classic thing of overshooting relative to USDJPY. Some of that reflects EUR correction in general, but that kind of action often makes it the prefered countertrend entry, even if predisposed the other direction longer term. FWIW, I have exited short E/J at this point, though conceivably a bit early. (E/J has passed the 50 fibo, though USDJPY has not). LOL - Apparently I too am running naked at this point!

It is worth noting, given the S&P-related posts above, that E/Y again reflects (predicts?) that market...
Apparently I too am running naked at this point!

The imagination is running wild in overdrive - BUT, I'm not biting!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,018
  • Oct 28, 2009 9:11pm Oct 28, 2009 9:11pm
Quoting mstandifer
Everyone get out your "The End Is Near" sandwich boards and start walking the streets?!?!

S&P500 Today's close.
Alarm bell will ring if 1012 swing low is taken (HH-HL has priority over DSRI for me).
  • #7,019
  • Oct 28, 2009 9:11pm Oct 28, 2009 9:11pm
Quoting strat
Apparently I too am running naked at this point!

The imagination is running wild in overdrive - BUT, I'm not biting!
No doubt.....I might bite back anyway!

Too much on my mind at the moment anyway....my gut tells me we should be higher EUR-based by the US session, but the PA does not support me yet. USDCHF does appear to be waffling though, so I may be active in the am.
  • #7,020
  • Oct 28, 2009 9:16pm Oct 28, 2009 9:16pm
Quoting Alexandra
Agreed. I might add that E/J is doing the classic thing of overshooting relative to USDJPY. Some of that reflects EUR correction in general, but that kind of action often makes it the prefered countertrend entry, even if predisposed the other direction longer term. FWIW, I have exited short E/J at this point, though conceivably a bit early. (E/J has passed the 50 fibo, though USDJPY has not). LOL - Apparently I too am running naked at this point!

It is worth noting, given the S&P-related posts above, that E/Y again reflects (predicts?) that market...
I gotta admit I closed it also - at 133

this is where the head games came in a little bit, I was up double my risk on my first trade and just wanted to keep my winnings so I closed it before it got into the real support, which isnt too far away anyways
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