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Strategy of losers

  • #181
  • Oct 24, 2009 12:09pm Oct 24, 2009 12:09pm
Quoting daytrading
Near-Perfect Market Indicator Discovered
Years of Research Reveals Consistent Trading Edge in Aurora, IL


Stock market researchers at the University of Chicago yesterday announced a breakthrough in their efforts to find the perfect market indicator. He is Delbert Dunmore, a home-based trader in Aurora, Illinois.

According to Giovanni Celini, Ph.D. of the University's Institute for Market Research, Mr. Dunmore has failed to make money for 18 consecutive years of trading, with only a single month of gains during that time.

"This is a result...
Truly outstanding and brilliant article. Had me in stitches.... In all seriousness though, there is a lot to be learnt from this thread. Excellent research data has been presented by Triphop that has certainly caused me to take another look at my trading. For example, EURUSD versus AUDUSD. Great stuff!

fxpilot
  • #182
  • Oct 24, 2009 3:32pm Oct 24, 2009 3:32pm
I found a link to Delbert Dunmore system:
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/...emarkably.html
  • #183
  • Oct 25, 2009 3:54am Oct 25, 2009 3:54am
Quoting daytrading
Near-Perfect Market Indicator Discovered
Years of Research Reveals Consistent Trading Edge in Aurora, IL


Stock market researchers at the University of Chicago yesterday announced a breakthrough in their efforts to find the perfect market indicator. He is Delbert Dunmore, a home-based trader in Aurora, Illinois.

According to Giovanni Celini, Ph.D. of the University's Institute for Market Research, Mr. Dunmore has failed to make money for 18 consecutive years of trading, with only a single month of gains during that time.

"This is a result...
Outrageously funny.
  • #184
  • Oct 26, 2009 4:56am Oct 26, 2009 4:56am
Another link to Delbert Dunmore.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2006/...indicator.html
And if you guys click on his name you will see his picture.
  • #185
  • Edited 7:33am Oct 26, 2009 7:22am | Edited 7:33am
...will be profiled in a BBC documentary airing tonight (26 October) at 9pm on BBC 2.

In a thread entitled Strategy of Losers, i thought it appropriate to reference a winner (spurious link, i know), anyway, I thought some of you may like to know, and as we've had Mark Douglas's soundbites trotted out, some people may be interested in Buffett's:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8322921.stm

Thanks to the OP for pulling DT out of the woodwork. Always worth reading
  • #186
  • Oct 26, 2009 9:06am Oct 26, 2009 9:06am
AstonDan, nothing tenuous about that link at all, will definitely be watching - cheers!
  • #187
  • Oct 28, 2009 3:37pm Oct 28, 2009 3:37pm
Triphop,

I thought you might appreciate this. It was given to me years ago by someone who took the time to try to teach me how to trade.

A New Mindset

In order to be able to see these cycles of sentiment as they take place it is essential to remain outside them. Traders who are participating in a current fervor generally don’t see themselves as participating in a fervor at all; they are too deep in the forest to afford themselves a view of the trees. How do we remain outside the forest? By adopting a mindset that allows us to do just that. The following short story written by Kurt Vonnegut’s Kilgore Trout character in “Slaughterhouse Five” (you may also have seen the story referenced in “Market Wizards”) provides a good example of the mindset we’ll take:


“The Big Board
. . . It was about an Earthling man and woman who were kidnapped by extra-terrestrials. They were put on display in a zoo on a planet called Zircon-212.
These fictitious people in the zoo had a big board supposedly showing stock market quotations and commodity prices along one wall of their habitat, and a news ticker, and a telephone that was supposedly connected to a brokerage on Earth. The creatures on Zircon-212 told their captives that they had invested a million dollars for them back on Earth, and that it was up to the captives to manage it so that they would be fabulously wealthy when they were returned to Earth.
The telephone and the big board and the ticker were all fakes, of course. They were simply stimulants to make the Earthlings perform vividly for the crowds at the zoo--to make them jump up and down and cheer, or gloat, or sulk, or tear their hair, to be scared shitless or to feel as contented as babies in their mothers' arms.
The Earthlings did very well on paper. That was part of the rigging, of course. And religion got mixed up in it, too. The news ticker reminded them that the President of the United States had declared National Prayer Week, and that everybody should pray. The Earthlings had had a bad week on the market before that. They had lost a small fortune in olive oil futures. So they gave praying a whirl. It worked. Olive oil went up.” - Kurt Vonnegut


As contrarian traders, we’re going to sit back like the Zirconians and watch the other traders as if they are some kind of attraction in a human zoo. We will assume that the news is only meaningful to the extent it drives people to buy or sell and that there is no inherent reality behind it. We’ll be asking, “What are these strange beings doing and what beliefs are driving their behavior?” If you think there is a certain amount of disparagement for your fellow traders’ skill inherent in a method that includes pretending they are in a zoo, well, then you’re right. If 90% of traders lose then, unfortunately or not, you best not only avoid what they do, but also do the opposite. It’s not that there isn’t camaraderie among traders, but it’s a lot more fun when it’s with other winners. So stay out of the cage, hang with the Zirconians, and please don’t feed the traders.
  • #188
  • Oct 28, 2009 3:43pm Oct 28, 2009 3:43pm
Quoting Dopey
... please don’t feed the traders.
I may tape this to my monitor to remind me of this story...
it makes me laugh and keep a proper detached, trade-neutral, positive mindset.
  • #189
  • Oct 29, 2009 4:51am Oct 29, 2009 4:51am
Dopey, you read me well... this is a great article. It reminds me a bit of public speaking - the best public speakers are concentrating on the audience not on themselves. Thanks for posting.
  • #190
  • Dec 3, 2009 8:19pm Dec 3, 2009 8:19pm
Quoting triphop
1)Inverse disposition at normal leverage, disposition and increased position size after sequences of 2+ wins/losses
The disposition effect is the tendency for punters to hold on to losing trades for longer than winning trades – giving rise to the oft-quoted “cut your losers short, let your winners run”. Simple. So, presumably all the losers do the opposite right? Wrong.
The average punter does exactly what they’re ‘supposed’ to when trading. They cut losers short, and let winners run in the main. But, once they either have two wins in...
Very well said and written .
this is the real reason behind all looses , I have been there ( and sometimes still get myself there! ) and I know how true this part is.

Retailers have to learn to get away from charts and when watching charts , they must learn how to manage their positions. it's the hardest skill to be learnt.
sometimes a bad winning trade starts all of this, u put on a large sized trade and bingo u win. then u double and loss becomes painful to get rid off , till it gets out of hand and we are gone!

Thank u for sharing
Enter Signature
  • #191
  • Dec 3, 2009 8:20pm Dec 3, 2009 8:20pm
Quoting triphop
A bit about discipline, Mark Douglas and instinct
Chicky, Porkpie, you picked up on my dislike of TITZ (Trading in the Zone, not tits). It’s because of all the advice I’ve ever read, or followed, this was the most useless.

He is so blasé about finding a simple system with an edge, anyone would think it was a doddle. He even goes as far to say that most simple systems are profitable if you follow the rules. Maybe I’ve missed a golden age of trading when using the first hour of a London session for direction could earn you big bucks, or...
I remember once when I was about to read his books, I read in the introduction that he is not a trader but coach.
simply I dumbed the book and looked for another !
Enter Signature
  • #192
  • Edited 8:35pm Dec 3, 2009 8:23pm | Edited 8:35pm
Quoting triphop
You won’t find this advertised by your broker. What percentage of time do you think retailers (en masse) are winning more than they’re losing? Would you expect it to be similar across different pairs? To figure this out, I took 9 months of position data from Oanda, and divided it up into neutral (winners and losers roughly in balance), losing and winning.

For the EURUSD, retailers spent 0.5% of the time in profit, 12% running at or near b/e and 87.5% losing. Nice work eh? Ever get the feeling you’re in the wrong business? Looking...
I think you can add here that retailers like to watch 4 pairs or even more in the same time and worse they try to manage all the positions all in the same times as well.
I believe it's so much better to trade just one pair and to focus in order to learn its rhymes and character.
Now after struggling sometimes winning a pretty good streak then giving it all.
I learnt that managing my positions and where to exit ( especially when I'm in a losing trade) is the most important things.
Enter Signature
  • #193
  • Edited 9:07pm Dec 3, 2009 8:53pm | Edited 9:07pm
Quoting CHFJunkie
I remember once when I was about to read his books, I read in the introduction that he is not a trader but coach.
simply I dumbed the book and looked for another !
.......... written by a forex billionaire? or by the one who can coach?
Tigerwood gets coaching lessons, do you know who is his coach? ............. me too don't know who that person is/

ps. After spending many years learning forex, I was finally guided in the right direction by a mentor, ........................and that person is no Jesse Livermore but the one capable of identifying my limiting factor and knew exactly how to correct it.

I don't get a share of royalty from no book of Mark Douglas but find it useful for retail trading the way I (and many others) do it. Everyone is different and therefore no one book is good or bad for everyone.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #194
  • Dec 3, 2009 9:19pm Dec 3, 2009 9:19pm
Trading is like wave, be cool waiting the wave is come in don't think about profit but thinking the wave will coming.....

we pray is coming...
  • #195
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:25am Dec 4, 2009 1:25am
Quoting msnizam
Trading is like wave, be cool waiting the wave is come in don't think about profit but thinking the wave will coming.....

we pray is coming...
and what praying has to do with your trading?

it's the same prayers that you will do when your loss is getting bigger!

" when the ship starts to sink, Don't pray , Just jump!"
Enter Signature
  • #196
  • Aug 31, 2022 3:35pm Aug 31, 2022 3:35pm
Hi everyone.

Thought I would introduce myself in a long-time, good thread like this one
I have been losing for around 2 years now. Here are the things I'm currently investigating/studying or have studied.

Can anyone let me know if I'm on the right track? Also, where can I get an awesome mentor like you guys? I have one source I can think of but my skepticism makes me not want to pay even though it's an off branded source that has given me a lot of good information from what I can gauge. Would any of you help me? I have over 1,000 pages of personal messages between 2 discord groups that are all written by me if anyone wants to see my commitment to trading first.

Here are some things I've investigated:
1. ICT
2. Phantom
3. NJAT
4. Raja Banks
5. Raynor Teo or something?
6. RockzFx?
7. hidden gem (I'll tell ya later maybe. It's free info).
8. Tom Dante
9. Trader Tom? (Some big swing trader with a site or something).
10. James16
11. dbphoenix
12. Davit

Pinbars is what I'm reading into... I honestly love order blocks as more of a warning signal for likely direction to change at that location. I like the concept of fading HTF moves and I like seeing high volume on LTF for exhaustion followed by lower volume to confirm the exhaustion once price wicks through the previous high volume exhaustion bar.... and I have all kinds of setups and ideas but no success yet and definitely no consistency but I've put a tremendous amount of effort into this. I'm recently coming across how price is more about reading price movements and not necessarily the candlesticks but the actual movements which dictate what larger players are doing on HTF. This is the most confusing and "intuitive" / "discretionary" concept I've come across recently in the forums. I am trying to create a system using H&S for liquidity grabs and supply and demand shoulders etc for areas of potential high confluence. There are seemingly endless variables so I thought I would join the forum to see who I could connect with, since all of my time has solely been on discord up to this point. Could anyone offer me advice?

Thanks!
  • #197
  • Sep 1, 2022 10:52am Sep 1, 2022 10:52am
As a strategy for losers, here's one of mine that I hope I can get some feedback on. I have a couple of questions.. I will just post it here. I put it as my desktop background because I'm really trying to convince myself that this is a very good pattern to research.

List of Confluences
1. Channel (defines entry and exit nicely also... KISS).
2. Order block that is heading back inside of the channel.
3. A "head" for liquidity grabbing purposes.

I am working on this as a very basic setup with confluence.

Greatest Challenges when backtesting
1. HTF setups are RARE.
2. LTF setups are RARE but obviously more of them.

Due to the rarity of the pattern, I can't help but wonder if it's even worth it at all. I have a couple of questions.

Questions
1. How do you deal with something being RARE in backtesting? Do you just keep chucking along and hoping to see the pattern? Is there a such thing as being too disciplined when backtesting? I'm really creative when I'm backtesting but I've settled on using some sort of pattern like this. Am I overcomplicating it since it is rare and hard to find or am I possibly on the right track because I have a couple of filters? Do I just need to be more patient with myself to take the time to look for these patterns? How did you guys deal with these problems?
2. I've heard multiple "order flow" teachers say that backtesting isn't needed and some people even say it's pointless. What would say to these people?
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  • #198
  • Sep 1, 2022 10:20pm Sep 1, 2022 10:20pm
Quoting LoseAlTrades
A 2. I've heard multiple "order flow" teachers say that backtesting isn't needed and some people even say it's pointless. What would say to these people? {image}
According to me, backtesting is useful! Because, we need to grow our subconscious mind for trading & in that case, backtesting helps a lot!
  • #199
  • Sep 3, 2022 12:43pm Sep 3, 2022 12:43pm
Quoting LoseAlTrades
Hi everyone. Thought I would introduce myself in a long-time, good thread like this one
Gosh you've resurrected this from the dead

Welcome fella.

what to say? ok three pointers...

1 ) Trust your own judgement. I'm pretty sure you know deep down if someone says it can't be tested, testing's a waste of time, just believe in what I say... what does that tell you about the 'educator' telling you that?

2) Don't trade yours or someone elses beliefs about the market, find out facts, about how it really works, how risk is handled etc. and firstly you won't get played and secondly you'll know what to look for. Check out Sam Sieden and his order flow crapola and what happened to him. Even the history of candlesticks - millions of people led astray by one man. Incredible.

3) if you do what everyone else is doing, you'll get what everyone else is getting. So don't. Measure the hell out of everything once you've got the basics, and you'll do just fine. Or find good proxies for real orders and use those (not retail orders by the way, this was a good starting point but the market doesn't give a monkeys where our orders are). Again, knowing 2) will serve you well

hope you find your path
  • #200
  • Sep 7, 2022 7:59am Sep 7, 2022 7:59am
Quoting triphop
{quote} Gosh you've resurrected this from the dead Welcome fella. what to say? ok three pointers... 1 ) Trust your own judgement. I'm pretty sure you know deep down if someone says it can't be tested, testing's a waste of time, just believe in what I say... what does that tell you about the 'educator' telling you that? 2) Don't trade yours or someone elses beliefs about the market, find out facts, about how it really works, how risk is handled etc. and firstly you won't get played and secondly you'll know what to look for. Check out Sam Sieden...
I started measuring everything. A mentor also told me to focus more on execution aspect instead of signal modification. He mentioned that signal modification can result in overfitting and I should instead incorporate things like volume / order book with the signal.
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