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  • #6,941
  • Oct 27, 2009 9:54pm Oct 27, 2009 9:54pm
Quoting Naws
BOSS and BIGBOSS down

BEEB has formed at strong (sorry Alexandra) resistance with confluence of the BOSS 20.

This seems like a logical place to continue the downtrend after this retrace (assuming it is just a retrace)

Some things to watch out for are that we are trading into the 20 and 50 and of course that big double bottom on the weekly

what do you guys think?

Attachment
LOL - still long under the TL....we'll see. A minor daily double bottom is in and profitable, but nothing long term is certain yet. Once again the technical short is in play, as expected.
  • #6,942
  • Oct 27, 2009 10:00pm Oct 27, 2009 10:00pm
Quoting Naws
The bottom of that blue box would be my first support target

we'll see what happens then, if it gets there
Hi Naws,

I think price will react to 91.00 level and 20. Will be interesting to watch.
  • #6,943
  • Oct 27, 2009 10:31pm Oct 27, 2009 10:31pm
Quoting Naws
BOSS and BIGBOSS down

BEEB has formed at strong (sorry Alexandra) resistance with confluence of the BOSS 20.

This seems like a logical place to continue the downtrend after this retrace (assuming it is just a retrace)

Some things to watch out for are that we are trading into the 20 and 50 and of course that big double bottom on the weekly

what do you guys think?

Attachment
Naws, agree with your analysis, although my data show the Boss 20 slightly away. Nevertheless price has just bounced off strong resistance. Good entry point now, for a re-test of the double bottom. At least 300 fairly safe pips.

Pandu
  • #6,944
  • Edited 11:25pm Oct 27, 2009 11:05pm | Edited 11:25pm
Quoting chanak
Naws, agree with your analysis, although my data show the Boss 20 slightly away. Nevertheless price has just bounced off strong resistance. Good entry point now, for a re-test of the double bottom. At least 300 fairly safe pips.

Pandu

Oh God......that is the best buy signal I have seen lately! A "safe pip" indeed! So you are selling a few hundred lots then?

The 26th was the technical trade short entry point. We marked it on the thread, so many times...both USDJPY and EURJPY. If you want to enter now, methinks you have missed the bus.
  • #6,945
  • Edited 11:30pm Oct 27, 2009 11:15pm | Edited 11:30pm
A word to the prepared mind on E/J in light of our late-arriving guests, especially for those looking for a run to the bottom edge of the range - it is sitting on day three of a possible corection (in my view, given the longer term patterns) and at confluence of major fibos. May be a profit point for the technical shorts or a chance to breath for the long term longs (inhale.........exhale.......ahhhh...that's better)......And yes....before anyone asks, it is possible to be both.
  • #6,946
  • Oct 27, 2009 11:18pm Oct 27, 2009 11:18pm
Quoting Alexandra
Oh God......that is the best buy signal I have seen lately! A "safe pip" indeed!

The 26th was the technical trade short entry point. We marked it on the thread, so many times...both USDJPY and EURJPY. If you want to enter now, methinks you have missed the bus.
how was that a good entry point? Its just a normal looking green bar no indication of selling. Isnt it a bit risky entering a trade without seeing any PA firs?
  • #6,947
  • Oct 27, 2009 11:35pm Oct 27, 2009 11:35pm
Hi Guys

Just want to say nice thread.

I have been through what most of you have and I have not been happy on smaller TF’s and have asked my self pretty much all year.

“WHY” have I not been long in NZD/USD since it was $0.49 “Why” I say again?

My live account has just been blown up after two years of trading and many systems.

But one thing I have learned and hope it will help here is a possible way of detecting a trend change.
You will see on these daily charts that when the price tries to move higher or lower it sometimes gets rejected and leaves a long tail.

When followed by the next candle moving in the opposite direction it “SOMETIMES” can lead a trend change not always and seems to be best when going from short to long.

I like long term trading as Strat has said it can be less stress full, I am going utilize a lot of my old options trading skills such as trend support and resistance lines.

My charts have

1. Daily trend lines
2. Weekly trend lines
3. Any S and R lines that may be around.

I also use some indicators but am trying to wean myself off them.

Hope this helps

I am demo’ing this so called system I say that because this is not really a system but common sense

Buy going up and sell going down as for the Kiwi (yes I am one) it has been traveling in the same direction for most of this year so WHY weren’t you and I all on it.

Too stupid I guess mucking around with 5 minute charts.

Happy Pippin

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I do Good I feel GoodI do Bad I feel Bad
  • #6,948
  • Edited Oct 28, 2009 12:11am Oct 27, 2009 11:48pm | Edited Oct 28, 2009 12:11am
Quoting Naws
how was that a good entry point? Its just a normal looking green bar no indication of selling. Isnt it a bit risky entering a trade without seeing any PA firs?
That bar stopped dead in the water at 92.15 -- the long term resistance point. That's enough PA for anyone! Granted, I am looking at support levels and predisposed long in that market.....but remember my comment from that little USDJPY exercise: "Where are the sellers likely to emerge?" If the price stops at that point, that constitutes PA. One could have waited till the next day to confirm the reversal pattern if desired, or perhaps even the break of 91.70 support, but I do believe that waiting till now is not the ideal course. I see the logic off of the weekly chart, but I think one has to be ready earlier, using the daily??
  • #6,949
  • Oct 27, 2009 11:58pm Oct 27, 2009 11:58pm
Quoting Naws
BOSS and BIGBOSS down

BEEB has formed at strong (sorry Alexandra) resistance with confluence of the BOSS 20.

This seems like a logical place to continue the downtrend after this retrace (assuming it is just a retrace)

Some things to watch out for are that we are trading into the 20 and 50 and of course that big double bottom on the weekly

what do you guys think?

Attachment
Hi Naws, Like the setup you posted for USD/JPY. I was monitoring UJ for setup too but too bad my data did not close with any decent PASR, just a normal candle.

Between, heard that you had just started your live trading. Found any difference with trading demo? Psychologically and trading wise? All the best to you mate... you are doing great.

Sean
Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #6,950
  • Oct 28, 2009 12:07am Oct 28, 2009 12:07am
Quoting Alexandra
Oh God......that is the best buy signal I have seen lately! A "safe pip" indeed! So you are selling a few hundred lots then?

The 26th was the technical trade short entry point. We marked it on the thread, so many times...both USDJPY and EURJPY. If you want to enter now, methinks you have missed the bus.
Hi Alex, I know you've been a buyer on USDJPY you mentioned that 26th was the technical trade short entry point? I can't see any PA at that candle. Or I'm missing something? Maybe you can enlighten me.

Thanks
Sean

EDIT*
Just saw that you had post your reply to naw's post. Same question.
Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #6,951
  • Oct 28, 2009 12:18am Oct 28, 2009 12:18am
Quoting Dabestone
Hi Alex, I know you've been a buyer on USDJPY you mentioned that 26th was the technical trade short entry point? I can't see any PA at that candle. Or I'm missing something? Maybe you can enlighten me.

Thanks
Sean

EDIT*
Just saw that you had post your reply to naw's post. Same question.
Maybe it's data dependent to an extent - I have a three pip differential between open and close on that bar with a long downward wick and a high of 92.27 after 4 up days...but in any event, the R point was respected to the utmost degree - a "technical trade." That makes me suspicious actually, as I've mentioned before. I'm not trying to offend, but I did see post after post identifying that 92 area for several days (weeks in one case) as the heavy resistance point. Execute the plan!

FWIW, heavy volititlity in this market would not suprise me over the next few weeks. It's too calm at the moment. Now E/J on th other hand....well...it's E/J after all.
  • #6,952
  • Oct 28, 2009 2:40am Oct 28, 2009 2:40am
Quoting soso
...
Currently is bouncing between the two and today I am looking for a Daily bearish PA close under 91.8 and the DSRI that sustained the up move.
Yesterday Close left us a BEEB that broked 91.8 by a some pips, had a SELL STOP order at 91.5 which got triggered. Looks good till now...
Closest Weekly support is at 89.6.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,953
  • Oct 28, 2009 3:00am Oct 28, 2009 3:00am
Quoting Alexandra
...
That makes me suspicious actually, as I've mentioned before. I'm not trying to offend, but I did see post after post identifying that 92 area for several days (weeks in one case) as the heavy resistance point
...
Hey Alexandra,

Maybe that level was an OBVIOUS weekly resistance level, does that mean that it would be a fake?

I perfectly understand your reasoning that this level SEEMS to be eyed by everyone and when that happens usually Ms. Market does the opposite, I wonder how true that is. And I also wonder how many traders OUTSIDE this thread saw that level. Because most others look at candle extremes, not closes and the resistance would have been at 91.7.

As for me, if a level stands out then it means it properly did its job in the past why not trust it in the future too especially if it is alligned with BOSS & BIG BOSS trend (resistance)?

Would love Strat/others comment on this "USDJPY Situation"!
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,954
  • Oct 28, 2009 3:34am Oct 28, 2009 3:34am
I suspect Alexandra for playing the enemy role here, to mess with our minds She's playing mind games!
But I'm an emotionless trading machine and I never react to fear nor to greed. I only respond to pure market signals. That being said, I have only one more thing to say: "he110 Strat, give sign4l, pls. 10x m8!"

Inserted Video
  • #6,955
  • Oct 28, 2009 4:22am Oct 28, 2009 4:22am
Quoting Alexandra
Oh God......that is the best buy signal I have seen lately! A "safe pip" indeed! So you are selling a few hundred lots then?

The 26th was the technical trade short entry point. We marked it on the thread, so many times...both USDJPY and EURJPY. If you want to enter now, methinks you have missed the bus.
I agree the earlier BEOP was a better entry, but I think this entry is also worth considering. By 'safe' pips I meant that this is a trade with a high probability of not losing and a significant probability of a retest of recent lows near 88. Of course there will be some wobbles i) near the 20 & 50 MA confluence and ii) another minor support after that before major support at 88.

Cheers,
Pandu
  • #6,956
  • Oct 28, 2009 6:28am Oct 28, 2009 6:28am
Quoting soso
Hey Alexandra,

Maybe that level was an OBVIOUS weekly resistance level, does that mean that it would be a fake?

I perfectly understand your reasoning that this level SEEMS to be eyed by everyone and when that happens usually Ms. Market does the opposite, I wonder how true that is. And I also wonder how many traders OUTSIDE this thread saw that level. Because most others look at candle extremes, not closes and the resistance would have been at 91.7.

As for me, if a level stands out then it means it properly did its job in the past why not trust...
I think we'll get a chance to buy tickets to this bus on the other station, where our data will show better sell entry.
  • #6,957
  • Oct 28, 2009 7:05am Oct 28, 2009 7:05am
Quoting BaliuxXx
I think we'll get a chance to buy tickets to this bus on the other station, where our data will show better sell entry.
Can you post a chart to see what you mean?
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,958
  • Oct 28, 2009 8:00am Oct 28, 2009 8:00am
Strat,

1) Trading is about managing your own destructive behaviors
2) Trading is about Money Management
3) Trading is about taking money from those who can't do the first two

Thank you for sharing this wisdom of a professional trader. Trading is really that simple ( but not easy )!


Fuman
  • #6,959
  • Oct 28, 2009 8:00am Oct 28, 2009 8:00am
This was my entry, I sold a break of the 91.70 support and the trendline and my entry triggered last night.
We could be forming an inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern, I am watching for price action approaching 90.00
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  • #6,960
  • Oct 28, 2009 8:20am Oct 28, 2009 8:20am
Quoting strat
Why TP at 1.0425? - I would expect a "wobble" there but not swing termination.

Does 1.0370 mean anything on your data?
I wasn't sure if a textbook trade from resistance to first daily support meant minor or major. I saw 1.0425 as first minor support from back in Aug/Sep of 2008. No other reason.

1.0370 is major support from the swing low in July 24 and 25, 2007 and the swing high of January 21 and 23, 2008. Matches up to the pip...sweet. If a textbook trade is from resistance to first major daily support then it would be 1.0370 rather than 1.0425.

Update:
USDCAD exceeded yesterday's high. A close above 1.0700 and the 50 might indicate a bit more to go on the upside. If it closes below 1.0650 today that would make for an excellent shooting star.

Note: If it closes below 1.0650 but not below 1.0625, while technically not a confirmed swing high, I would still place a sell order based on a close under that support line and the 50, and the length of the long nose of the candle.
However, because of the proximity of the 20 and the minor support it represents around 1.0525, I would move my stop to BE at the close of tomorrow's candle. The rest of the plan remains unchanged except for modifying my TP to 1.0380 (to ensure getting filled).
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