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  • #7,781
  • Oct 27, 2009 9:31pm Oct 27, 2009 9:31pm
Between now and the GDP numbers, it will muddle along in the .9125 to .904 range. If the numbers are good, back to the .92s again and if not hello .896s
  • #7,782
  • Oct 27, 2009 9:46pm Oct 27, 2009 9:46pm
Quoting puks
I am definitely not coming.

added long straight after the release of the data at .9201 and now I am trying to average out.

down -150 pips.

Dont think it'll go down below .9050 today or this week.

This is again an excellent opportunity to go long in this pair because rates will definitely rise next week and so will this pair.
Im -85 pips and dont understand why it go short?
  • #7,783
  • Oct 27, 2009 9:54pm Oct 27, 2009 9:54pm
Quoting nazik
Im -85 pips and dont understand why it go short?
Surely it doesn't matter why its moved. It just has. What was your plan for the trade before you entered?

What was the profit target and stop loss? Did you have a stop in the plan?
  • #7,784
  • Oct 27, 2009 9:54pm Oct 27, 2009 9:54pm
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Quoting puks
I am definitely not coming.

added long straight after the release of the data at .9201 and now I am trying to average out.

down -150 pips.

Dont think it'll go down below .9050 today or this week.

This is again an excellent opportunity to go long in this pair because rates will definitely rise next week and so will this pair.

hi puks, don’t forget rate increase (by 25 points) is already been forecasted and calculated into the current rate ...

however if they increase the rate by 50 points which I doubt they will then we are in a completely different discussion and you are absolutely spot on …

I wont consider long until 9000 …
  • #7,785
  • Oct 27, 2009 9:59pm Oct 27, 2009 9:59pm
Quoting nazik
Im -85 pips and dont understand why it go short?
that's how they play it: buy the rumors ;sell the news.
it seems you are uncomfortable with your drawdown,
here are some solutions:
1- if you can hedge (means you can have both short/long at the same pair,same time) do it now
2-if you cant hedge, it seems the pair will have a retracement back to upside, try another long here and close them both in average, + use SL for your 2nd long below the current price, .SL=09070, it seems to me you dont do SL, that's a MUST, the only exception is when you hedge your positions
  • #7,786
  • Oct 27, 2009 10:00pm Oct 27, 2009 10:00pm
only the daily chart it has retraced by 50% 0.9080.

i would see this as a point of support... if this lets go we could go down to 89.

But i doubt it.. have been wrong today thus far. Feeling some pain!
  • #7,787
  • Oct 27, 2009 10:03pm Oct 27, 2009 10:03pm
Quoting shahab8b
1- if you can hedge (means you can have both short/long at the same pair,same time) do it now
Whats the point of that? You are effectively flat yet going to pay 2 extra spreads (+commis if applicable).

Thats a very expensive way to deal with your emotions while not accepting the trades gone bad.
  • #7,788
  • Oct 27, 2009 10:09pm Oct 27, 2009 10:09pm
Quoting shahab8b
that's how they play it: buy the rumors ;sell the news.
it seems you are uncomfortable with your drawdown,
here are some solutions:
1- if you can hedge (means you can have both short/long at the same pair,same time) do it now
2-if you cant hedge, it seems the pair will have a retracement back to upside, try another long here and close them both in average, + use SL for your 2nd long below the current price, .SL=09070, it seems to me you dont do SL, that's a MUST, the only expection is when you hedge your positions
Thnks for your help. i can hedge,and i go long at 0.9150 ,then i go long again on 0.9106 , then i go short double first two positions 0.9093 and close with some profit when see upside move but still i m afraid of falling down more.thnks
  • #7,789
  • Oct 27, 2009 10:17pm Oct 27, 2009 10:17pm
Quoting G_Man
hi puks, don’t forget rate increase (by 25 points) is already been forecasted and calculated into the current rate ...

however if they increase the rate by 50 points which I doubt they will then we are in a completely different discussion and you are absolutely spot on …

I wont consider long until 9000 …
The 25 points will surely be factored in atm but 50 poiints would be another thing altogether but cant see that happening especially after today's report.It still is a hell of a long time until next Tuesday and heaps could happen before then.We have got RBNZ rates call tomorrow but pretty sure they will not be moving anything.The Kiwi got hit with the wash in the Aussie announcement today.
  • #7,790
  • Oct 27, 2009 10:20pm Oct 27, 2009 10:20pm
This is the beginning of a similar correction to that in June/July this year. The S&P is going to have a big down night before the end of the week, looking at the SPI futures it wouldn't suprise me if its tonight. Time will tell.
  • #7,791
  • Oct 27, 2009 10:24pm Oct 27, 2009 10:24pm
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
hey fam, did you end up hold onto your short?
  • #7,792
  • Oct 27, 2009 10:45pm Oct 27, 2009 10:45pm
Wow, I just got back, my buy order actually filled at 0.9085! This pair has been taking quite a beating lately... has the dollar rally begun or is this just another opportunity to buy the dips?

Going with US Stocks, the Dow transports double topped (this is huge if you're bearish) and tech is looking weak (also very bearish).
  • #7,793
  • Oct 28, 2009 12:44am Oct 28, 2009 12:44am
Quoting G_Man

hi puks, don’t forget rate increase (by 25 points) is already been forecasted and calculated into the current rate ...

however if they increase the rate by 50 points which I doubt they will then we are in a completely different discussion and you are absolutely spot on …

[color=black][font=Verdana]I wont consider long until 9000...
Agree - 25 bps has already been factored in however when it actually happens, its a different story altogether. then there will be talks about carry-trade, interest rate differential, etc.

I am waiting for .9070-.9050. I had limit buy order at .9071 that didn't get filled. I will add more longs from .9070 and use a tight s/l for the whole lot just below .9050 and enter double size short from there.

However, I believe tomorrow morning's RBNZ rate commentary will help this pair move north - towards .92 if it already hadn't happened tonight during US open.

Unless and until my weekly chart doesn't give me reversal signal, I am not going to be convinced about medium term correction to .85-.84 levels.
  • #7,794
  • Oct 28, 2009 2:34am Oct 28, 2009 2:34am
Quoting pounce
Between now and the GDP numbers, it will muddle along in the .9125 to .904 range. If the numbers are good, back to the .92s again and if not hello .896s
Ok, .896s coming before the GDP #s. Good luck!
  • #7,795
  • Oct 28, 2009 2:36am Oct 28, 2009 2:36am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
loving it .... TP 9140 ... still have some left ... who's riding ...
  • #7,796
  • Oct 28, 2009 2:39am Oct 28, 2009 2:39am
Hi guys..

Strong support has reached 0.9040 now.....
need suggestion what happens with AUD?
any strong news that pull aud fall quite deep?

please share with me..
  • #7,797
  • Oct 28, 2009 2:50am Oct 28, 2009 2:50am
Quoting G_Man
loving it .... TP 9140 ... still have some left ... who's riding ...
i'm still short from .9169
  • #7,798
  • Oct 28, 2009 3:58am Oct 28, 2009 3:58am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
9030 is the next Support followed by 8980 ...

i will be happy to get out and TP at 9000 ...
  • #7,799
  • Oct 28, 2009 4:16am Oct 28, 2009 4:16am
Quoting WestAus
Im still looking for a drop to around 9050, can see the finishing of the H+S forming now on 1H. Can see resistance on 1H at 9280, ill short from there and until next TL support. Still practising my analysis so apologies if it seems illogical.
Seems ok for now, here is my chart, critique please.
This was my chart for the 23rd i think, learning to draw TL and read different TF's atm. 4H chart.


http://i33.tinypic.com/aw6qzk.jpg



http://i38.tinypic.com/fvedes.jpg


This pic is now.
Oh and is FXCM and Go markets AUS both mt4 trading platforms, and also what does everyone recommend out of the two?
Thanx alot guys, appreciate it.
  • #7,800
  • Oct 28, 2009 4:30am Oct 28, 2009 4:30am
Have three trades enterred at 92041 woth stop at 89541
enterred 9090 stop 8840
9150 stop 9000

All comments and forex sites I hjave read still see the pair as bullish.

I am down $1700 on first trade. Stop 89541 should be lowered?
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