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AUD/USD

  • #7,741
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:26pm Oct 27, 2009 5:26pm
Quoting cphcphcph
currently im @ long position 1.9400
what do you all think after CPI news?
Depends on what the news is!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #7,742
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:30pm Oct 27, 2009 5:30pm
Quoting realjumper
Depends on what the news is!!!
Erm...the outlook of forexcrunch said that australian cpi is sexpected to show a neat quarterly rise.
  • #7,743
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:35pm Oct 27, 2009 5:35pm
Quoting cphcphcph
Erm...the outlook of forexcrunch said that australian cpi is sexpected to show a neat quarterly rise.
But they don't know that do they? That's why we wait for the news!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #7,744
  • Oct 27, 2009 6:25pm Oct 27, 2009 6:25pm
cpi data should meet or exceed - i believe - so I am long. Aussie has been searching for direction this week, CPI will set the trend for the rest of the week.
  • #7,745
  • Oct 27, 2009 6:49pm Oct 27, 2009 6:49pm
I'm long ahead of CPI for a quick trade.
  • #7,746
  • Oct 27, 2009 7:19pm Oct 27, 2009 7:19pm
Quoting Bigvick991
I'm long ahead of CPI for a quick trade.
if CPI q/q is positive, AUDUSD will go UP right?

Sorry, newbie here, just to confirm. thanks so much
  • #7,747
  • Oct 27, 2009 7:35pm Oct 27, 2009 7:35pm
CPI rose 1% in Sept Q,the rise was expected to be 0.8%
  • #7,748
  • Oct 27, 2009 7:46pm Oct 27, 2009 7:46pm
ouch on the pull back.

obviously market wanted a lot more than 1%.
  • #7,749
  • Oct 27, 2009 7:51pm Oct 27, 2009 7:51pm
Consumer prices were up more in Q3 than they were in Q2 and beat analyst estimates with a 1% advance since the last quarter vs. expectations of 0.9%. This will most likely increase pressure on central bank Governor Glenn Stevens to continue to increase rates. At the same time that prices are increasing in Australia, they are falling in other advanced economies making it more likely that other countries will not be forced to increase interest rates in the near future. I see the Aussie dollar as a good pair vs most currencies. The central bank last week reported that keeping the rate at very low levels may be imprudent. Futures show that investors are 100% certain that rates will another quarter point on Nov 3 and there is a 16% chance that rates will rise by half a percent.
  • #7,750
  • Oct 27, 2009 7:53pm Oct 27, 2009 7:53pm
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
CPI is only 0.1% better than what's been forecasted ...

we may see break below 9100 today ...
  • #7,751
  • Oct 27, 2009 8:09pm Oct 27, 2009 8:09pm
Quoting G_Man
CPI is only 0.1% better than what's been forecasted ...

we may see break below 9100 today ...
that's farked if that happened.

I went long straight after better than expected CPI data - relatively huge position.

Now I am screwed left, right and centre.
  • #7,752
  • Oct 27, 2009 8:23pm Oct 27, 2009 8:23pm
Quoting puks
I went long straight after better than expected CPI data - relatively huge position.

Now I am screwed left, right and centre.
Are you saying this one trade you have on is an all or nothing trade?
  • #7,753
  • Oct 27, 2009 8:27pm Oct 27, 2009 8:27pm
Sorry to hear that puks

The reaction to the news is sometimes counter to what you might think it should be, and for that reason I always stay out until things settle down again. Yeah you might leave some pips on the table, but that doesn't matter. What matters is protecting your capital.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #7,754
  • Oct 27, 2009 8:32pm Oct 27, 2009 8:32pm
Yeah thats no good Puks sorry to hear...I try and keep out of important news items 30 minutes either side of announcement.Looks like starting to bounce now.
  • #7,755
  • Oct 27, 2009 8:34pm Oct 27, 2009 8:34pm
Quoting puks
that's farked if that happened.

I went long straight after better than expected CPI data - relatively huge position.

Now I am screwed left, right and centre.
Sorry to hear that. It's bouncing like a ball now, but it looks like a 50bps hike is less likely.
  • #7,756
  • Oct 27, 2009 9:05pm Oct 27, 2009 9:05pm
Quoting ben10
ok guys im out of here below is my overall position and if that longterm multiple moving average continue spreading and the degree or separation between them getting bigger (comb pattern) then i know the trend will establish ! just IMO

http://img39.imagefra.me/img/img39/2...bm_629ed41.png
http://img38.imagefra.me/img/img38/2...om_9bad097.png
  • #7,757
  • Oct 27, 2009 9:45pm Oct 27, 2009 9:45pm
twin tasman is slowing, so better play around killing the time just incase the aussie move above 9150 will send the kiwi scout out but ready to attack the aussie below 9100

http://img39.imagefra.me/img/img39/2...jm_07f3bf7.png
  • #7,758
  • Oct 27, 2009 10:01pm Oct 27, 2009 10:01pm
compression breakdown ! aussie make the move expecting break below 9100 and will add and ride

http://img03.imagefra.me/img/img03/2...dm_ffd9a87.png
  • #7,759
  • Oct 27, 2009 10:07pm Oct 27, 2009 10:07pm
hi can you explain me why we going south when data comes in better then expected?thnks
  • #7,760
  • Oct 27, 2009 10:08pm Oct 27, 2009 10:08pm
Quoting ben10
compression breakdown ! aussie make the move expecting break below 9100 and will add and ride
Lots of positions to get cleaned out here. Funnily the local national news has started this week reporting about Exporters struggling/complaining about the high AUD. As always very good contrarian indicator.
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