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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #46,981
  • Oct 27, 2009 11:48am Oct 27, 2009 11:48am
Quoting james16
CHART
excellent, I've never thought of that.

Could have done the same thing on the EJ trade...
  • #46,982
  • Oct 27, 2009 12:26pm Oct 27, 2009 12:26pm
Quoting pip-shark
Hello everyone!

I have traded a couple of months in an indicator mess, and now that I found this thread a few weeks ago, I think there is no return. This material seems to be very cool, and people here very helpful.

Trading for living is my longer term dream. I think my nature would suit perfectly to this, and I am really interested in studying this business. I know that it's not going to happen in a year or two, and I have to really dedicate to this and be patient if I want to succeed.

But I want to hear an opinion from you, who have made it...

Hey Pip

These questions are so difficult to answer b/c there isn't one road we all take. Can you become successful at this business in 5 years? yes. Will most fail, even more so yes. Will some do it sooner, and some take much longer also yes. As for "trading for a living". There are so many things that go into that, it is impossible for me to answer. Would a 200k account be enough to have no other means of income and depend solely on your trading results to trade full time? For me not even close to a big enough account. In some countries sure. Where I am from 200k would need to be double each year to even be close and I am a single dude. That is a hell of a lot of pressure. Most people who trade for a living have years of expenses put aside, no debt, no pressure to meet some sort of goal per month or even year. They have VERY large accounts. But can you grow that 200k into a really nice account over the course of time and if not some day use it to retire/trade for a living/nice supplement to your income? You sure can(if you take the right steps).

I hope this gives you some idea. The most important thing at this point is to do what you are doing. Learn the business on demo. Spend however many years it takes(saying 5 is even impressive most that are new expect it in months to a few years). Just continuously remember to treat this like a business, that is the first step towards any success.

Hope this gives you some insight

Mike
  • #46,983
  • Oct 27, 2009 12:52pm Oct 27, 2009 12:52pm
Quoting pip-shark
Hello everyone!

I have traded a couple of months in an indicator mess, and now that I found this thread a few weeks ago, I think there is no return. This material seems to be very cool, and people here very helpful.

Trading for living is my longer term dream. I think my nature would suit perfectly to this, and I am really interested in studying this business. I know that it's not going to happen in a year or two, and I have to really dedicate to this and be patient if I want to succeed.

But I want to hear an opinion from you, who have made...
Mike gave a great answer (as always), the only thing I would add is that $120K is still a large amount of money to put in the market. Once you make the transition from demo to live trading I wouldn't risk more than 1% (more likely 0.5% per trade to be honest) at first until you get some time under your belt. I am all for demo trading, but trading live and more so trading for a living are psychologically different for most people.

Why not trade part-time for now, growing that account to a size where you are not requiring a huge return to pay all of your bills. Honestly though I don't know your personal situation, so depending on how much you need to make percentage wise would make a huge difference. I guess what I am saying is if you need a 50-60% return on that money to live off of each year that is a lot of pressure you will be putting on yourself. I wouldn't ever want to feel like I had to make a trade because the mortgage was due if there were no set-ups.

Nathan
  • #46,984
  • Oct 27, 2009 1:12pm Oct 27, 2009 1:12pm
Quoting perch
Being the newbie stinks - you feel your so far behind everyone - but I find it sort of exciting to be a pretender - - - - I pretend I am a skilled trader and whip out the words and draw up the graphs - explain to myself outloud even -...
Hey perch,
Welcome to FF and the home of the best thread. You bring up an interesting point about newbs and what they face when they start down the road to trading.

I'm new, so take this for what its worth. I don't think you need to "pretend" but rather have a detailed plan before getting into a trade. Mine is a Question/Answer flow chart type of idea for example:
Do I have a valid PA set-up (Yes/No), Is the PA in the correct area? (i.e BEOVB at swing high) Yes/No, Am I trading with the trend? (Yes/No) etc etc etc. Once you have a solid grasp of the material presented in the thread (easier said then done) and a solid trade plan your well on your way.

The other thing I would add, is keep the trade ideas simple to start. I personally just trade PA set-ups on Daily charts using just support and resistance, forgetting about divergence, trend lines, touch trades break-outs etc etc. Of course we have a great community here in the thread with many knowledgeable folks that go the extra mile to help.

Once again welcome, have fun and may your trading be profitable.
Mikali
  • #46,985
  • Oct 27, 2009 1:31pm Oct 27, 2009 1:31pm
hi,

im looking at the eur/cad daily ..

it appears that the 61.8 fib area has alot of confluence..
but, the bearish bar (assuming it closes lower than the previous bar) has pierced thru it by so much, does it still make 61.8 fib a good resistance/reversal area?

please let me know your opinion on this....thanks!
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  • #46,986
  • Oct 27, 2009 1:39pm Oct 27, 2009 1:39pm
Quoting arthurwtm
hi,

im looking at the eur/cad daily ..

it appears that the 61.8 fib area has alot of confluence..
but, the bearish bar (assuming it closes lower than the previous bar) has pierced thru it by so much, does it still make 61.8 fib a good resistance/reversal area?

please let me know your opinion on this....thanks!
Hi Arthur

Imo it is an interesting setup with very good quality BEOB. I have already put a sell stop order under it. 61.8 fib is at the 1.5650 troble area where i'll take partial profit and move stop to BE , next stop could be at 1.5500.
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  • #46,987
  • Oct 27, 2009 1:43pm Oct 27, 2009 1:43pm
Quoting james16
CHART
hi Jim, could you tell us when you closed the long trade you had running??and why?? was this a stopped and reverse trade??
sorry if iv missed it if it has been posted allready.
cheers
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #46,988
  • Oct 27, 2009 1:57pm Oct 27, 2009 1:57pm
Quoting arthurwtm
hi,

im looking at the eur/cad daily ..

it appears that the 61.8 fib area has alot of confluence..
but, the bearish bar (assuming it closes lower than the previous bar) has pierced thru it by so much, does it still make 61.8 fib a good resistance/reversal area?

please let me know your opinion on this....thanks!
For what its worth, i quite like this also, its been good to me today but i have the first problem area directly below at 157.00 then at 156..00?? i tyhink i would like to see a break of that round number if/when price breaks the bar?
a retrace with some shorter TF PA ,50% maybe, to have my stop at BE as price reaches the low of todays bar again??..... well we can wish...
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #46,989
  • Oct 27, 2009 2:01pm Oct 27, 2009 2:01pm
Quoting arthurwtm
hi,

im looking at the eur/cad daily ..

it appears that the 61.8 fib area has alot of confluence..
but, the bearish bar (assuming it closes lower than the previous bar) has pierced thru it by so much, does it still make 61.8 fib a good resistance/reversal area?

please let me know your opinion on this....thanks!
Hi arthurwtm,

I'm also new here but here is my take.

I've been watching this pair for the last couple of hours and I agree we may have a possible trade opportunity. The weekly and monthly charts indicate the pair is trending down. We have confluence 365,150 ema's along with 23 weekly fib. The ema's are acting as good support so I would only plan on entering if price breaks below @ 1.5728. I see the first sign of trouble at 1.5650 and a good area to take partial profit and move SL to BE and let the remaining position ride to 1.5600 next trouble area. I'll wait to see how the bar closes before I make my final decision.

Cheers,
Mikali
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  • #46,990
  • Oct 27, 2009 2:09pm Oct 27, 2009 2:09pm
Just got my funds credited into my real trading account

Hope this Friday the market will be interesting...

Liking this chart...mike..and great post above.
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  • #46,991
  • Edited 2:17pm Oct 27, 2009 2:11pm | Edited 2:17pm
BEOB on NZD / CAD ...the bar is engulfing previous two bars, is at a round number (and has 'pierced' it) and zooming out you can see it is a PPZ area (not surprising as it's near a round number and there is divergence.

But there is a lot of immediate traffic ahead, plus I would have preferred a bigger bar compared to some of the other previous bars in the uptrend.

As I can't watch it in action (as it's late in UK when it will trigger) it's not one I'll be playing personally.
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  • #46,992
  • Edited 4:06pm Oct 27, 2009 2:16pm | Edited 4:06pm
Quoting supremeChaos
Pretty blunt, but it's ok... i'll try not to beat around the bush too

well i trade real money, although probably a few/many months away from consistently profitability.

i'll say it again.... this material, generously shared by Sir james16 & propagated by equally generous seniors here, IS VERY EASY to Understand.
the hard part is Consistency when it comes to IMPLEMENTATION. the other 'external' &/or related/intertwined factor is PSYCHOLOGY.

without going into details, IMHO, i have the fcuking WORST situation...
Wow sChaos . . . let it out, brother . . .feels good doesn't it. lol

Your absolutely right. Perseverance is the #1 quality a trader must have, especially in the beginning. And an understanding that this does take time and practise. But soon all of the hard work will pay off.

Nice Eur/Cad BEOB on the 4 hour. Classic. Well look at that . . .it seems the Daily Eur/Cad has also turned into a BEOB as well. A bit of traffic but the location and swing high looks good. This does happen. When your quality lower time frame bearish/bullish PA turns into a quality Daily bearish/bullish PA. How's that for confirmation.


Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #46,993
  • Oct 27, 2009 2:21pm Oct 27, 2009 2:21pm
Quoting jspeakman
As a complete newbie, would you say there is also a nice trend line from the pinnish bar on 2 August from which H4 is currently bouncing, confirming weekly pin? (sorry if i am talking rubbish)

Thanks

Jezza
Welcome jezza. No such thing as talking rubbish here. Not seeing the trendline your talking about. Posting a chart is always helpful.

Jim

Edit: Ditto Mike (mbqb11) http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=46973

Edit 2 : There's is a difference between "talking rubbish" and "talking trash". lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #46,994
  • Oct 27, 2009 2:32pm Oct 27, 2009 2:32pm
Quoting lovejoy80
BEOB on NZD / CAD ...the bar is engulfing previous two bars, is at a round number (and has 'pierced' it) and zooming out you can see it is a PPZ area (not surprising as it's near a round number and there is divergence.

But there is a lot of immediate traffic ahead, plus I would have preferred a bigger bar compared to some of the other previous bars in the uptrend.

As I can't watch it in action (as it's late in UK when it will trigger) it's not one I'll be playing personally.
Hi lovejoy80,

To me this seems to a very risky setup, firstly the pair is in an established uptrend. Also, consider you would be trading into an area of support @ 0.7850 this would have to be managed very closely by moving SL to BE right away.

The other thing to take note the BEOB is engulfing the Monday bar most traders do not take into consideration the Sunday bar.

Cheers,
Mikali
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  • #46,995
  • Oct 27, 2009 2:41pm Oct 27, 2009 2:41pm
Quoting Mikali
Hi lovejoy80,

To me this seems to a very risky setup, firstly the pair is in an established uptrend. Also, consider you would be trading into an area of support @ 0.7850 this would have to be managed very closely by moving SL to BE right away.

The other thing to take note the BEOB is engulfing the Monday bar most traders do not take into consideration the Sunday bar.

Cheers,
Mikali
Point noted about Sunday bar... just forgot to count back correctly!

I agree, I would only conder taking this if I was at my screen and would go to B/E or take profit when it hit the first trouble area...I would be looking for hard break to the first area.

I was mainly posting this to create some discussion as I bet a lot of newbie traders would see the BEOB and take it as it was at a round number and there was divergence.
  • #46,996
  • Edited 2:59pm Oct 27, 2009 2:45pm | Edited 2:59pm
Hi

Just wondered what your thought were upon this developing into a longer term trade.
I realise the stop would need to be moved.
thanks

ps was originally entered as a shorter term trade
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PASR student.
  • #46,997
  • Oct 27, 2009 2:58pm Oct 27, 2009 2:58pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Pip

These questions are so difficult to answer b/c there isn't one road we all take....

Thank you Mike and Nathan for comments!

In Finland where I live, around 60k$ a year before taxes gives a very nice standard of living for a single guy like me, so for 200k$ account it's 30%. Free health care and social security system takes a lot of pressure away from how much you earn.

But nice to hear that it's possible to make it in 5 years and that gives a lot of motivation to study.

Let's see if I get there...
  • #46,998
  • Oct 27, 2009 3:00pm Oct 27, 2009 3:00pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Point noted about Sunday bar... just forgot to count back correctly!

I agree, I would only conder taking this if I was at my screen and would go to B/E or take profit when it hit the first trouble area...I would be looking for hard break to the first area.

I was mainly posting this to create some discussion as I bet a lot of newbie traders would see the BEOB and take it as it was at a round number and there was divergence.
Excellent point, I think its very important to understand that to be successful its not just a matter of identifying a PA set-up and trading it. There are many things to consider and this is why this thread is so helpful.

Mikali
  • #46,999
  • Oct 27, 2009 3:17pm Oct 27, 2009 3:17pm
I am going through the thread .. On page 16 Jim mentioned about starting a Chart Thread . is there any thread like that..

Thanks

SJ
  • #47,000
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:16pm Oct 27, 2009 4:16pm
Quoting arthurwtm
hi..

i went in on this one, after the bullish outside bar formed. However, it has now retraced more than 61.8 of the bullish bar and so i have closed the trade (i think the formation doesnt look good anymore)

do you guys think that after the bars have retraced that much the formation has lost it's reliability? or should i have let the trade stop out at the low of the bullish bar?

were there any early indications that this bar may not work?
i thought the location was pretty good:
-hit support at 0.9
-RSI divergence
-swing low
You realise the order flow that created this bar was purely the result of a news announcement? Nine times out of ten a move based on news will retrace; I think I've said this before, but if you're going to trade the news look for the market to move in 3 waves - initial reaction, retracement, continuation of inital eraction, eantries based on PA ofc.
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