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Silent Service Method

  • #5,561
  • Oct 26, 2009 5:10pm Oct 26, 2009 5:10pm
Chris,

I'd like your opinion on these two stock charts.

The first one is ACV long (I got bumped out of this last week) same area, and same reasons with a much better bar. I'm not real excited about trying it again, but it just popped up on my scan, and it looks pretty.

http://i35.tinypic.com/2z65csp.png

Next is INT. Nice bar....but no SR. I can find some fibonacci excuses to call it a b-fly, but that's probably just wishful thinking. Any thoughts?

http://i34.tinypic.com/21eujhv.png
  • #5,562
  • Oct 26, 2009 6:35pm Oct 26, 2009 6:35pm
Quoting Low
Chris,

I'd like your opinion on these two stock charts.

The first one is ACV long (I got bumped out of this last week) same area, and same reasons with a much better bar. I'm not real excited about trying it again, but it just popped up on my scan, and it looks pretty.

http://i35.tinypic.com/2z65csp.png

Next is INT. Nice bar....but no SR. I can find some fibonacci excuses to call it a b-fly, but that's probably just wishful thinking. Any thoughts?

http://i34.tinypic.com/21eujhv.png

The first trade -

I treat each set up on it's own merits. If we go above that pinbar - I would be interested myself.....the fact that it didn't work out before doesn't matter.

The second one -

If it's not at S/R.....I don't trade it. Period.

Chris
  • #5,563
  • Oct 26, 2009 9:03pm Oct 26, 2009 9:03pm
If I might offer my (unsolicited) opinion...

Today's market action was universally bearish for stocks and created a pseudo pinbar on the market as a whole (Up over 100 early in the day only to close down about 100). So generally most stocks are going to show bearish price action.

So the fact that your first stock was able to show a bullish pinbar on a day that produced almost the exact opposite for the general market is fairly impressive. Like Chris, i might be interested in that myself if we see some follow through tomorrow on it.

As for INT, I'm personally already long that stock (weird coincidence that you chose one of the few individual stocks that i currently own) so I'm a bit biased on it, but its been testing all-time highs for a while now. Previous all-time high occurred on 6/2/06 @ $53.45 and had hit highs of around $50-51 back in late 2007. It closed above that this week for the first time ever, but if it falls back below $50 that might be a decent entry point (sad as that makes me, being that I'm long).

Anyway, just my thoughts. All that being said, given today's broad market action i'm finding a few ETFs that are showing some pretty interesting pinbars that might merit some watching (or trading). Will post a few later if I can.
  • #5,564
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:55pm Oct 26, 2009 10:55pm
I noticed a lot of bearish pins on oil and gas stocks, could signal a bit more deflation.

semiconductors also...don't ask me why.

I think I'll just watch INT and see what it does. ACV is remarkable in that in ran counter to the majority.

I'll add it to my stock-paper-trades tomorrow, and see what she does.
  • #5,565
  • Oct 27, 2009 7:28am Oct 27, 2009 7:28am
Hey Chris, congratulations.

The new website looks great and much better presented.

Quoting clockwork71
Still a work in progress.......gotta clean up some things......but thanks.
  • #5,566
  • Oct 27, 2009 10:47am Oct 27, 2009 10:47am
Thanks Stef for sharing those awesome tools. I really fell in love with the Volume Calculator, and I'm soon going to try out the PPZ Drawing tool - didn't get it to work immediately so I'll look into that later.

Thank you too Chris, for providing the link on your website.
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #5,567
  • Oct 27, 2009 11:49am Oct 27, 2009 11:49am
AUDCAD

This pair is definitely in an interesting area. On the monthly chart it was a PPZ over and over but confirmed more as resistance than support. Additionally it's the 61% fib expansion level. Trailed the stop to 0.9630 below a minor area. The area itself is not what I like to protect my stop but if the current weekly bar is broken downside it could become a weekly pinbar and a weekly pin at this area broken downside is a countertrend short entry for me and this is the last point I want to be out long. I still want to give it a try and stay 150 pips behind watching it and who knows, by getting stopped out I could get the chance to ride the pips back all the way down because the trend changed 3 times in the past at this level.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD-2009-10-27-16-58-48-Alpari-UK-Ltd.png Size: 41 KB


HE - Virtual

My HE stock trade hit the stop and closed with nice profits.

AMCC - Virtual

Moved the stop to lock some profits after the first PPZ is done. Stop is placed above some peaks to the left. It' somewhat interesting that the trendline on this chart determines the current value/liquidity of this company. If there are no news or other releases this simple trendline reduced the liquidity of the company and the companies board - should - but might even not know why.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AMCC-2009-10-27-17-06-00-FreeStockCharts.png Size: 54 KB


BAC - Virtual

Moved stop to lock some profits. I stay closer with my stop as with currency trading because it's new terrain and I want get confidence. I can gain more confidence with small winners than losers caused by trying to get the big hit.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BAC-2009-10-27-17-08-00-FreeStockCharts.png Size: 39 KB


Those are my first 3 stock trades and I like this expansion of the market. Suddenly the market expands from 30-50 currency charts to an almost countless number of charts. I also think that the complete stock market has fundamental dependencies but stock trades are more independent from each other than currency trades because in forex it's easy to place hedging trades by accident.

Have a nice one, Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #5,568
  • Oct 27, 2009 1:14pm Oct 27, 2009 1:14pm
Its amazing to see how markets move synchronously. Take a look at the AUD pairs.

AUDCAD at a double top, very long term 61 Fib
AUDCHF at 61 Fib around .94 resistance
AUDJPY at 61 Fib around 85 resistance
AUDNZD is a mess
AUDUSD moves at .93 which serves as a PPZ mainly on the daily timeframe. It isn't at an obvious fib though.


I think because the AUD is facing such a lot of resistance on all of these large pairs that the possibility of a reversal of the trend is significant.
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #5,569
  • Oct 27, 2009 3:00pm Oct 27, 2009 3:00pm
Quoting Noloqy
Its amazing to see how markets move synchronously. Take a look at the AUD pairs.

AUDCAD at a double top, very long term 61 Fib
AUDCHF at 61 Fib around .94 resistance
AUDJPY at 61 Fib around 85 resistance
AUDNZD is a mess
AUDUSD moves at .93 which serves as a PPZ mainly on the daily timeframe. It isn't at an obvious fib though.


I think because the AUD is facing such a lot of resistance on all of these large pairs that the possibility of a reversal of the trend is significant.
I have noticed more than once that it seems almost as if the market focuses on one particular currency at a time......there are times when EUR is doing the same thing every where for example.....

Good observation.

Chris
  • #5,570
  • Oct 27, 2009 9:27pm Oct 27, 2009 9:27pm
I am watching this one.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: poundcad.png Size: 54 KB
  • #5,571
  • Oct 28, 2009 11:11am Oct 28, 2009 11:11am
Quoting Noloqy
Its amazing to see how markets move synchronously. Take a look at the AUD pairs.

AUDCAD at a double top, very long term 61 Fib
AUDCHF at 61 Fib around .94 resistance
AUDJPY at 61 Fib around 85 resistance
AUDNZD is a mess
AUDUSD moves at .93 which serves as a PPZ mainly on the daily timeframe. It isn't at an obvious fib though.


I think because the AUD is facing such a lot of resistance on all of these large pairs that the possibility of a reversal of the trend is significant.
What a coincidence, today the AUD had bearish price action on all major pairs except AUDNZD. It will be interesting to see if this is just a bounce off of the resistance levels or if its strong enough for an actual trend reversal.
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #5,572
  • Oct 28, 2009 11:29am Oct 28, 2009 11:29am
I don't think the trend is about to reverse. Remember that Aud has the highest interest rates of all the majors.
  • #5,573
  • Oct 28, 2009 2:06pm Oct 28, 2009 2:06pm
Quoting clockwork71
I am watching this one.....
I had similar plans - placed a pending order on EURCAD, but I guess the forex gods had other plans. It was never triggered and I had to suffice watching EURJPY drop like a stone making my floating equity happy.
  • #5,574
  • Oct 28, 2009 2:35pm Oct 28, 2009 2:35pm
Anyone else keeping an eye on the EURGBP hanging out right around the .90 level?


BTW Stefx - INT was a good call on your part - never listen to a guy with a pre-existing position... It's now almost hitting my stop loss (which incidentally might be your short-trigger!). Then again, after the last few days in the stock market, most any "Short ____" recommendation is probably looking pretty good!
  • #5,575
  • Oct 28, 2009 3:30pm Oct 28, 2009 3:30pm
Quoting o990l6mh
I had similar plans - placed a pending order on EURCAD, but I guess the forex gods had other plans. It was never triggered and I had to suffice watching EURJPY drop like a stone making my floating equity happy.
This set up looked really good, and several other charts were making a case....but like you said, the market had other plans. No trade triggered, so be it......

Chris

Congrats on the Eur/Jpy
  • #5,576
  • Oct 28, 2009 3:32pm Oct 28, 2009 3:32pm
Quoting Eduardo
I don't think the trend is about to reverse. Remember that Aud has the highest interest rates of all the majors.
I don't think anyone is calling for a trend reverse.....not long term at least.....but it looked ripe for a correction, which we got....

It's about knowing the pitch thrown to you.

Chris
  • #5,577
  • Oct 28, 2009 3:37pm Oct 28, 2009 3:37pm
Update and my thoughts on that Hasbro short.... the original post is here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5505
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HASupdate.png Size: 148 KB
  • #5,578
  • Oct 28, 2009 3:46pm Oct 28, 2009 3:46pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5550

This AUD weekly chart caught my attention. (link above)

This is an update to that chart. ****Full disclosure: Due to other positions I had on in my account, I am not in this trade at the moment. I will be looking at P.A. to go short if appropriate.****

I don't like risking too much of my account at one shot, so those of you that are in this trade.....nice one guys. There are a few of the members that are that I know of...

Chris
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussieweek.png Size: 65 KB
  • #5,579
  • Oct 28, 2009 3:53pm Oct 28, 2009 3:53pm
Quoting clockwork71
I don't think anyone is calling for a trend reverse.....not long term at least.....but it looked ripe for a correction, which we got....

It's about knowing the pitch thrown to you.

Chris
Yes, sorry, was replying to the post above mine but didn't quote it.

A correction definitely due on that one. I'm watching to see where it is going to resume.

Weekly fibonacci would suggest 0.85?
  • #5,580
  • Oct 28, 2009 4:04pm Oct 28, 2009 4:04pm
Quoting Eduardo
Yes, sorry, was replying to the post above mine but didn't quote it.

A correction definitely due on that one. I'm watching to see where it is going to resume.

Weekly fibonacci would suggest 0.85?

I didn't even draw a fib to be honest, but .85 is a great support area, so it makes sense.
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