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  • #6,901
  • Oct 26, 2009 9:26pm Oct 26, 2009 9:26pm
Quoting strat
Let me answer questions on SR on this one post.

By Weekly SR at 1.068 I mean the SR that is drawn through CLOSES, usually I do it using the line chart because it is easier. This is what I understood reading Strat's thread that SR through closes, especially on larger timeframes like weekly and monthly, are very good SR lines. And until now (with my limited experience!) they proved to be very good SR lines.
[i][b][font=Arial][color=blue]On Daily though I also use SR zones ala...
I use weekly closing prices for drawing horizontal SR.
What I have noticed is that subsequent reactions to those levels will cause an instant bounce and be the end of the wick of a candle, so it looks like subsequent touches are candle wicks but if you go back in the chart you will find a closing price or several at that level.

I do however sometimes use wicks for trendlines, for no other reason than it stops me getting into too many false breakouts.
  • #6,902
  • Oct 26, 2009 9:32pm Oct 26, 2009 9:32pm
Quoting luqmanz
I agree that CLOSE is very important. It tells us where the price lingers most of the time. This means this is where buyer and seller is at equilibrium. The way I see it:

If this equilibrium happens below a support/resistance line, it's likely that the bear is coming. If it happens in area higher than that line, it's likely that a bull will emerge.

The extremes (high and low) of candles are just a result of noise. They happen only for a split second. Price stays longer near candle close. This is...
I like the intent and point of your post but your time element statements are incorrect. If you do my M5 Boot Camp exercise you will know why.

Thanks though for bringing another way to look at things
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,903
  • Edited Oct 27, 2009 12:38am Oct 26, 2009 9:45pm | Edited Oct 27, 2009 12:38am
Quoting strat
What's wrong lad - run out of sheep in Yorkshire or did you get caught with the sheep's back legs in yer wellies?
lol
Good to meet u Strat virtually of course.
Yes the sheep in NZ are "awesome" as they say over here and with so many to choose from there,s always some fresh meat to tuck into.

Seriously I admire your thread and look forward to getting my teeth into the material soon.
I have learned so much following the thread over the last two weeks or so.

Thanks to your humour, knowledge and generosity.

Lee
PASR student.
  • #6,904
  • Oct 26, 2009 9:46pm Oct 26, 2009 9:46pm
I use MT4. When drawing trend lines on one time frame and then switching to another time frame they almost always drift, requiring repositioning. Any cure for this?

Which of course leads me to the following quote.. by Mae West (she had some great lines): " I used to be Snow White, until I drifted. "
  • #6,905
  • Oct 26, 2009 9:59pm Oct 26, 2009 9:59pm
Quoting strat
Might it be because so far its quadruple and as yet, it is not a top?
Seriously though, I really did want to know why no one had mentioned it. I looked at the monthly and that big fat BUEOB, though not complete, screams Take Me Higher as it passes resistance at 135.25. Even by looking at how the Big Boss has become almost horizontal this month from a very steep decline and the fact that last month's close and this month's open occurred on major support at 131.75 you can see it saying Don't Stop Me Now.

The weekly Boss and 50 have just begun to point up with the 20 having just recently crossed above the 50 and the supply DSRI was broken 2 weeks ago. I also see the weekly HL's for the past 3 swings even though only the closes of those same swings have been higher and not the actual highs. I also see resistance at 138.00ish has rejected price 5 times not counting this week.

The daily looks like it's been doing the hand shake for quite some time but I do see strength from the latest swing low that was one of those W bottoms. However, the daily trendline might have been broken depending on your data feed but that whole consolidation area just looks like a bull triangle that just busted out.

All that to say this...

Everything I read says up, and it looks like it's gathering strength to shoot through the roof. I wanted to see if there was something I was missing because when it was all said and done...I just wasn't sure.

-m
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  • #6,906
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:18pm Oct 26, 2009 10:18pm
Quoting Lou
I use MT4. When drawing trend lines on one time frame and then switching to another time frame they almost always drift, requiring repositioning. Any cure for this?

Which of course leads me to the following quote.. by Mae West (she had some great lines): " I used to be Snow White, until I drifted. "
They will always be different Lou because each time frame will have different H&Ls.

Snow and drifts - don't remind me!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,907
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:19pm Oct 26, 2009 10:19pm
Quoting strat
Yes but give me time to find my "You Dumb Shit" dictionary.
Can we add that to the acronym list? YDS

...and now, the rest of the story.

It all started one evening when I read my email (from my first Forex broker).

A trading contest....hmmm this would be a great way to test the techniques I have learned on Strat's thread and if I win the big prize...wooo! The prize wasn't the primary reason for getting in, but it did play a role (greed). If there was no contest/prize I wouldn't be writing this story.

So at this point you can already see that this was something Forrest Gump's mom would comment on. "Stupid is as stupid does."

So, I fund an account with a few bucks and get ready for the first night.

I thought I'd be a genius and apply what I have learned on the Daily to the lower TF, which obviously as Strat has repeatedly warned is not worth it (nor something a newbie shoud try).

So, first couple of days...no trades. Nothing looked good. Then finally pulled off a small trade. Ah...a profit. Now I had a bit of breathing room. I traded a few more times that first week and wound up down 4%. Nice job hugh? Lowe TF signals definitley were less reliable. Anyway the next week I got into a good groove and cut losses early and let winners run. I was starting to make money (up 20% from opening balance).

Week 3 is when the shit hit the fan.
Up to that point I was trading .01 lots per contract (I would trade multiple .01 lots to match my risk tolerance e.g. 3 * .01 or 3,000 currency units). Since I was up 20%, I decided to take a higher risk and changed my per contract size to .05 so I wouldn't have to click too many times when entering an order. After making this change I hadn't taken a trade for a day or so and forgot about my new size (hmmm....not what your thinking.)

I took a USD/CAD short for 10 lots (thinking that would be 10,000 currency untis 10 * .01). Ooops!!!! I was immediately down 5 pips. Shit! What the fudgicle! How the hell am I down $25 right off the bat ($5 a pip). Oh crap new lot size. Of course when you get stuck in a stupid move like that the market knows it...right? It immediately moved against me and I was down around 15 pips.
My first thought was kill the trade and suck up the loss for a stupid move. But my good friend...greedy bastard...said to let it play out. I have already entered my stops during entry, so I didn't have to change anything.
So, I did let it play out, but it was late at night and I was ready for bed. I was going to change my take profit to a slight profit, but fell asleep. Oh well...when I woke up my stop had been hit and I was out more than the 20% I was up. If I had not fallen asleep and reset the take profit, I would have profited.
Since I was already pissed for making a stupid mistake I was no longer thinking straight. Emotions totally took control and I got freaking tired!

The next day I was pissed! I knew I should have just killed the trade and moved on, but didn't. On top of it, I screwed up again by not moving my TP. Argh!!!

Time to get dumber....I was down about 5% from my original investment (if I can call it that) and should have walked away or cooled down. But I let the the emotions take over and stopped trading logically like I had been doing.

I wound up continuing to trade larger sized contracts and getting burned. I made some good hits, but went mostly down hill.

This is when the dark cloud started following me around and I couldn't get a date with a horny, drunk frat girl at a toga party. 3 times I got stopped out by 1 pip (and it then went in my direction and hit my target - all 3 times). Frustration kept building! 3rd time was a charm and I stopped trading. There's nothing like being right and losing money.

Now I am back on the path.

I knew the risk when I deposited the money in the account and had truly accepted the risk of losing it all. I just got so emotional over such a stupid mistake that is threw my game off. Like Strat keeps repeating...It's 90% mental. I know I can get the technicals down. Still working on the mental. Yes I am rereading TITZ. Like mstandifer said...you can never have enough.
  • #6,908
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:20pm Oct 26, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting mstandifer
Seriously though, I really did want to know why no one had mentioned it. I looked at the monthly and that big fat BUEOB, though not complete, screams Take Me Higher as it passes resistance at 135.25. Even by looking at how the Big Boss has become almost horizontal this month from a very steep decline and the fact that last month's close and this month's open occurred on major support at 131.75 you can see it saying Don't Stop Me Now.

The weekly Boss and 50 have just begun to point up with the 20 having just recently crossed above the 50 and the...
I see it telling a different story - but then I have always had a vivid imagination!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,909
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:24pm Oct 26, 2009 10:24pm
Quoting One14
Can we add that to the acronym list? YDS

...and now, the rest of the story.

It all started one evening when I read my email (from my first Forex broker).

A trading contest....hmmm this would be a great way to test the techniques I have learned on Strat's thread and if I win the big prize...wooo! The prize wasn't the primary reason for getting in, but it did play a role (greed). If there was no contest/prize I wouldn't be writing this story.

So at this point you can already see that this was something Forrest Gump's mom would comment on. "Stupid...
Thanks, Corbett - wondered where you'd been!

So for those who thought I had a vivid imagination when I wrote about this - think again - IT IS ALL TRUE!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,910
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:57pm Oct 26, 2009 10:57pm
Quoting mstandifer
...the supply DSRI was broken 2 weeks ago.
Your DSRI on boss chart is not correct. Connecting 08/2008 to 08/2009 is not a right way to do it. But on Daily chart, you can connect Aug 10th, 2009 open to Sep 22, 2009 open.

And this is what I have on my chart.
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  • #6,911
  • Oct 26, 2009 11:21pm Oct 26, 2009 11:21pm
Quoting mstandifer
Seriously though, I really did want to know why no one had mentioned it. I looked at the monthly and that big fat BUEOB, though not complete, screams Take Me Higher as it passes resistance at 135.25. Even by looking at how the Big Boss has become almost horizontal this month from a very steep decline and the fact that last month's close and this month's open occurred on major support at 131.75 you can see it saying Don't Stop Me Now.

The weekly Boss and 50 have just begun to point up with the 20 having just recently crossed above the 50...
Really, now?
  • #6,912
  • Edited 3:19am Oct 27, 2009 3:05am | Edited 3:19am
Anyone who has this pair might want to check the level we are at ... go back to 1994 if you can.

One to watch ...
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  • #6,913
  • Oct 27, 2009 3:53am Oct 27, 2009 3:53am
Quoting elitejets
Anyone who has this pair might want to check the level we are at ... go back to 1994 if you can.

One to watch ...
Agree. Another view if I may...
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  • #6,914
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:04am Oct 27, 2009 4:04am
Quoting Blackeagle
Agree. Another view if I may...
Haha I was hoping you would comment, I know you watch all the AUD crosses
Thanks
  • #6,915
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:58am Oct 27, 2009 4:58am
The general wisdom is the closing price of a given time period is important because it is the price at which the participants are willing to hold their position until the next session, so obviously the daily and weekly close are very important.

At lower TFs i find the close less important as price is more fluid throughout the session, but that's not important here, is it
  • #6,916
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:50am Oct 27, 2009 5:50am
Quoting strat
Let me answer questions on SR on this one post.
....
Thanks Strat for the detailed explanation, it is clear now.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,917
  • Oct 27, 2009 6:01am Oct 27, 2009 6:01am
Quoting Alexandra
Really, now?
I stand corrected, as I am sure will happen many more times in the future! My apologies Alexandra.

Quoting Alexandra
Got the other half of that EUR/JPY - the triple won't hold in my book with all that long term force, but, as I intimated last week, that one should be interesting - would expect a pause of sorts. The technical trade is to sell and protect oneself......but then, am I a technician? I see 145 there. If it breaks, it might reflect an equities overrun.
  • #6,918
  • Oct 27, 2009 6:05am Oct 27, 2009 6:05am
BOSS.
BOSS & BIG BOSS bearish. Weekly Supply DSRI still active.

Worker.
From November 07 price rised and today found resistance at Weekly SR of 92.3 after breaking Weekly 91.8.
Currently is bouncing between the two and today I am looking for a Daily bearish PA close under 91.8 and the DSRI that sustained the up move.
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,919
  • Oct 27, 2009 6:16am Oct 27, 2009 6:16am
Quoting Blackeagle
Your DSRI on boss chart is not correct. Connecting 08/2008 to 08/2009 is not a right way to do it. But on Daily chart, you can connect Aug 10th, 2009 open to Sep 22, 2009 open.

And this is what I have on my chart.
Thanks for pointing that out. If you or someone could point me back to the DSRI section, I need to go back and review. It seems I'm having difficulty determining which bars to use.

Would that make line 1 old DSRI and 2 the new DSRI?
At what point would a new DSRI line be drawn?
Are they simply drawn from the most recent lowest swing low to the most recent completed swing cycle swing low?
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  • #6,920
  • Oct 27, 2009 9:56am Oct 27, 2009 9:56am
Quoting mstandifer
I stand corrected, as I am sure will happen many more times in the future! My apologies Alexandra.

Indeed..quite magnanimous of you!

We are at one of the big fat lines - for those of us who are viewing this as a pause. The close will interest me.
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