High Probability

just stick what works
what I've been using
2nd ashi change of color and a definite target...
bombed... with trying to use the macd..
I'm sure it is a good strategy but it's not my strategy...

EURUSD is stuck between 200 ema and the pivot point on 4 time frames.
When this thing breakout and makes a move it is going to be a big move.
My guess is to the downside. 1.4900
but I've been wrong before

moving up, but where is the target?
I don't trust the move...

yes targeting..
that is the important thing..
not to get into a trade unless I have a target.
These are things I know, but to hold all the stuff in my head at once is the difficult thing. Practice, practice, practice.
Here took a short for 3 pips, in another account so no screen shot, because the target was there the 200 ema...

last hour or so of trading in US mkts?
They wanna correct.
Straight up since March..
Earnings are more or less out and are just about what was expected.
so probably priced into the mkts.
EURUSD follows the US equities fairly closely.
If stocks sell off then EURUSD taken down
DOW hovering at the famous 10,000
and EURUSD hovering at the famous 1.5
Time to pull back some?

No I didn't die.
Busy busy busy
I love my template. (That's how serious my condition is!!! pretty bad!!)
It's a Chinese New Years Dragon!!!
found a very exciting ma cross..
A function I didn't know existed is found in terminal under ma.
can apply ma to the previous indi in the indi list.
so i applied a 10 lwma to the ashi smoothed.
fnatastic, the cross it makes with max lag is phenomenal.
right on my 2nd ashi smoothed everytime,
so signal refinement,
1.cross of ma's and 2nd ashi first and foremost actual signal........
2. look for macd divergence or confirmation, a cross or a cross of 0 further identification of possibility
3 rsi 3tf what's happening on 3 time frames... how strong the move...
4. rsi and fxi ?????????? help to stay in the position or get out? neeed to work on these....
5 having a set target is very very helpful, like 200 ema, pivot and s/r...
(something is really eating the memory up though, I think it is max...)

Very interesting Jiva.

Can you tell me what you have the LWMA applied to? I would like to work on this over the weekend.

Thanks

Lohad

Could you please post this template.
As always, thank you for all your help.

I've applied the exp 10 to ashi smoothed...

I've sent you a pm..

ever increasing always getting better and better.
Exciting stuff.
Anyone wanting to learn something about scalping and try a really 1st class system visit LOHAD on journals.
My set up has the colors of my own personal preferences for a template since I have to look at the thing for hours, so it might as well be attractive for me to look at. Something I like to see.
Hence the DRAGON..
So spending some time Saturday on trying to figure out the rsi set up LOHAD is using.
Voila, time put in reaps results...
Nice system.
I am incorporating as much of it as I can. So template for now is:::::

Note:

a nice little goody I found for specializing an ma:

open terminal
click on indis, not custom indis,
right click moving averages.
parameters menu, choose whatever, exp, simple etc.., open, close, hi low,etc.
then close,
right click on ma on chart to edit.
parameters menu now offers, 2 extra choices besides the open, close, hi, lo
they are "apply to previous indi", "apply to next indi".
This refers to the order the indis were attached to the chart which can be seen by opening the indi list.
What other unique goodies are lurking in mt4???

entries would look like:
2nd ashi, cross of 10 ema tied to ashi smoothed,
macd and fisher all agreement
PLUS
an obvious destination, either 200 ema or pivot or s/r

just indis alone with no visible target entries should not be taken...

counter trend can be taken if indis strong and target is obvious... but do not expect much of a gain...

time of day very important,
I have seen trading history of successful traders and their trades for the most part are placed London open until US noon (NY)
if they find a good set up they place multiple lots.
They do not over trade. One good set up with multiple lots can make a very profitable day. They very often just trade that one set up. That's it. Done for the day.
8 pips 6 lots...
20 pips 6 lots
30 pips 6 lots.
Any of those makes for a very good day.
I want to do like that.
Let me find a very good set up on the 1m and place 3 lots and look for 5 to 10 pips...
Surely I can do that....
Done for the day. I can trade demo after that if I want.

like on this simulated trade starting pre London
doesn't look very impressive.
Look at all the pips I missed...(thinking like that is a killer, better to look at the pips I caught not what I didn't get!!)
So 3 very small short trades. Total 18 pips. But they would be 3 lots each
3x18=48 pips...
Yes there is 3xthe risk also, but the strategy gives the upper hand.
It is not 50/50 win lose..
It is high probability win.
in this case is was 100% win... 3 out of 3.
the first trade tgt was s1, did not stay in long but pa did reach s1
2nd tgt was 200ema, again closed early but pa did reach tgt
and 3rd tgt was pivot pa did reach tgt but closed early.

just like this on Mon morning.....
3 trades, total +20 pips 3 lots each...
20x3=60 pips.....

It makes more and more sense to have not only a target before entering a particular trade, but to also have a target for the day.......
Overtrading is in the same self defeating category at counter trend trading, all or nothing trading, flip a coin trading, revenge trading, I'll tame the market trading.......yada yada yada....
Discipline, direction, following the rules of a strategy that gives a high probability of success. I need to know what I am doing. There is no room for maybe, if, guess work, etc.... That is not an acceptable strategy.
So having a goal for the day is part of the acceptable strategy. Not just trading and trading and trading, not knowing when to quit. Quitting only when the losses are greater than the gains... How dumb.
So goal for Monday is at most 3 good trades, 5 pips each is acceptable more if the move allows. 3 lots each. That's it. Finished. I can do that..
So I'd better be very very sure I want to take the trade if it is 3 lots, because risk is 3x more.
The trades will have to be breakups or breakdowns... My strategy can identify these moves. If I follow the strategy this will work. If I overtrade I will start losing trades and then I will think my strategy is no good. And try to guess. Or get revenge with the market to get my losses back, etc. etc. Before I know it the cat with the ball of yarn has come to visit...
I see from the trading records of successful traders they may have just 1 good setup for the day, from 8 to 30 pips, several lots, nice gain, done.
That's the goal.
If I want to play computer games there's plenty available. If I want to make money and become a professional trader... that is something else....

made the trade in a non mt4 account
6 positions short eurusd.
signals good, tgt pivot about 10 pips
at one point could have closed all 6 for 25 pips (4pips each)
but waited, began to retrace so closed quickly for 1 pip each
only 5 pips... trade was good and did reach tgt (just shy of the pivot).
better to take the 1 pip than to turn into a loss...

missed the big move, out shopping and the bank.... can you believe it...
anyway got home just in time for 11 pips..
total for day 16 pips..
I like my new strategy..
to not over trade.
only wait for excellent moves, breakouts, my system will identify them, no problem and place multiple lots....
I don't need big moves, of course those are very nice, I just need identifiable moves.....multiple lots for small identifiable moves.

the crystal ball indi.

Finally, after working all day on my computer , I have resolved the issue just in time for dead time. Jiva, could you give me a description of the Crystal Ball indi?

Thanks,

Lohad