james16 Chart Thread

Yeah it looks good but we're right at 92.00 at the moment. Keep an eye on it though.

Mmmm....the more i look the less i like. lets wait n see what happens??
jon

what do you think guys about this , R zone , 50 fib , Trend line , weekly pin bar

hope to hear answer from anyone !!!!

Hi Ken,
Thank you for taking the time to post your viewpoint. Funny enough, the bearish PB PA and hence my order never triggered. I spent the entire weekend trying to see if the chart provided any clues as to why, but I was unable to come up with anything. Perhaps the more senior members may be able to offer some further insight.

I do not use the MACD or RSI indicators for indicating divergence as I'm not really sure how they work, so I can't speak to your point of divergence between the recent lows.

In terms of a bullish USD, I just do not see it, from what I can tell the USD generally is in a downwards trend against the major currencies, which was why I was surprised the PB never triggered.

In terms of the order I placed, I left it open and decided to play the break of the PB after the Inside Bar. A trade idea presented to me by James16 and mbqb11 last week. Now, my sentiment on USDZAR remains bearish and as of this morning I cancelled my trade because of the bullish break of the IB. It will be interesting to see if or when price makes a move down.

Once again thanks for chiming in and sorry for the long post.

With Thanks,
Mikali

Hi jaroo,

Its funny you link that post, as I have it printed and pinned on my bulletin board above my computer. Thanks for re-posting because it's worth its weight in sound price action advice.

Cheers,
Mikali

Hi Mikali,

I shouldn't say reversal. Rather, it's the hesitation or the pause. Candle stick is giving out signal that USD bear may encounter some sort of resistance at this level. It could be due to the profit taking, central bank intervention or anything.

Good luck!

Ken

Moving my stop loss to just under 1.05, entry from 1.0314. Nothing to do now but to see what type of price action happens at the 1.06 - 1.0650 area, assuming no reversal.

Eur/Jpy looking to form inside bar at pivot (possible triple top), but very early in the day.

Neither of my sell orders hit yet on Cable...patience is a virtue.


As I alluded to earlier regarding transition from break-even to profitability, there are three general areas that made the difference to me. Honestly they all fall under psychology, but here they are!

I would be glad to go into more details if anyone is interested, if not I hope someone will let me know to stop boring everyone.....ha ha.

Psychology
As I said, this is the area where I think kept me at break-even for so long. There were three main things I changed or did differently that seemed to make the difference.

1) Patience

Instead of focusing on trying to necessarily be better at things, I focused on reducing bad behaviors/habits. One simple step was 'forcing' patience. What does that mean? Don't stare at price action / pivots or areas and force them to be there when they are not. I was very guilty of many times finding a pin bar or other price action and forcing other reasons to exist to take the trade. If the pivot or area doesn't jump out at me - simply move on. If you have traded long enough you can eventually find a line or something that appears to add confluence. Find your areas and then wait patiently.

In general, traders are not patient. Otherwise, why would there be so many new traders that are convinced they can trade a $5,000 account full time and quit their job. A respectable annual return is 20%, which is $1,000 a year.

2) Defense of capital

I am not saying don't take trades or great set-ups, but I became very defensive of my capital. I will gladly let my profits run, but I had too many trades that showed reason for worry where I kept my original stop loss. As an example, a great pin followed by a pin in the opposite direction. These don't negate every trade, but I have found (at least on the daily) it has been better to adjust my SL to under that pin to save capital. Could it jump right back and make tons of pips? Yes, but if I am now risking 1/2% or less vs. the original 1% I am conserving capital. Other times I have noticed price will meander sideways with no real direction after an expected move. Many time I will either put stop at break-even of close to it as if the reason I put the trade on was with the expectation of a reversal and it doesn't do that - time for me to defend my capital. I would rather take that capital to another trade or limit my downside if it doesn't "act" as expected.

I am sure a lot of people will disagree with this one, but it made a huge difference in my equity curve.

3) Exits

This kind of goes with part II, but really managing exits through letting trades run that deserve it and tightening on those that don't make a big difference as well. I will tell you, my approach is somewhat opposite of what some would expect. Many times a large move in my favor will have me do nothing with original stop loss. Big moves tell me it is doing what I expected and I will let it have room to breathe. Sure, I may give up some pips but I am fine with that as many of these provide large percentage monthly returns. I also treat counter trend and trend trades entirely different.

On the other hand, slowly rising and indecisive moves are handled more aggressive. If it doesn't seem to have conviction in the move I defend my capital.

4) Accountability

One thing in general that bothers my about my own great country (USA) is the lack of responsibility and accountability. This country was built on those that took risks and didn't blame others for their lack of success. I remember during the stock bubble how a car salesman was telling me how great he was doing in stocks (yet his funds were managed by a broker). He took all the credit for the gains, yet when I ran into him again a few years later he told me how his "broker" didn't get him out in time!! A very selective approach I have to say, take credit for all the gains and but blame others for losses.

If you are risking 10% of your account on each trade, who do you think might be at fault if your account blows up? Five losing trades in a row and your lost half of your account. You now need a 100% return to get back to even. I remember a S&P day trading account I had and used to trade a system on. It had a high percentage win rate, but the losses during choppy times were too much. I was upset at the guy and this system for at least a day or too and then honestly laughed about it. Even at that time I knew about percentage risk, but the first three weeks I had made probably a 20% return on my money and was convinced I could up the line. His system wasn't the problem (although in the long run it would be hard to ever make money following it), he wasn't the problme and the S&P wasn't the problem.

I found what the problem was when I glanced in the mirror. As dumb as it sounds, that experience was the best thing that happened.


Anyway, many on here are way past even needing this advice but I thought I would share some thoughts of mine anyway. If you focus on entries and systems only you will get a lot more attention and excitement from traders vs. psychology babble, but honestly this piece of the puzzle is the key. Give a great trader random entries and he will still produce positive returns. Give a weak psychological trader the best entries and he will lose in time.


Nathan

euro/gb is working out good! i had my doubts for a minute then! lol
I have .9150 as the next problem area??
jon

Yeah I'm just looking at it now. I should have looked at the other GBP pairs to confirm that 92.00 wouldn't have been a problem.

Great post

Thanks NOS!

I have been fortunate to have had several dobermans over the years and I never cease to be amazed by how intelligent of a breed they are. Yes, they are more work than typical ankle biters and you can't have any confusion about who is alpha male (if you don't know if you are then believe me you are not to any dog), but they are one of a kind in my book.

To me I can relate it to trading, as I think you have to be confident in your approach but always remember there are typically some very smart/experienced traders who already are or will be going against your position.

Anyway, before I was better at truly understanding this amazing breed and didn't have the right skills I was faced with a small dilemma. My dobe would always get on the couch when I left. Typically she would jump down before I came in the door after work, but the imprint left no doubt about who was up there. This may seem like a minor issue, but with stronger willed dogs higher positions and feeling like they run the show is not a good thing for their confidence or establishing proper pecking order. Small things like that encourage alpha behavior.

A good friend of mine that was great with dogs had a great tip on how to self correct the behavior since I couldn't be there while at work. The trick was to put mouse traps (upside down) on the couch so that the noise would deter the dog. Mind you, the dog would not be harmed and the traps themselves were for noise (cheap versions, not the heavy duty rat killers).

Well I came home everyday, the traps were set off and the imprint was there like always. I originally thought she just jumped up and ignored the noise, which the trainer thought impossible. I finally decide to go outside one moring and spy into the room to see exactly what was going on with this amazing dobe. What she did was brilliant and made me rethink the notion that monkeys were so smart because they used tools. Shelby the ingenius one would take a tennis ball, loft it on the couch to set off the noisy traps and then go about enjoying her peaceful rest.


Nathan

Maybe 1.5000 (round number) is more important since it bumps against old highs at that juncture to the left ?
In other words just use support and rest lines rather than sloping lines?

Just an idea

Yep I full agree here turnip. I think we could draw all kinds of lines, but at the end of the day the 1.5 psych is creating any and all the action. Meaning the options that initially existed, then cleared, the options above which have been cleared(and still looking to get hit), and just the general draw of this 1.5 big number.

Simplicity is where it is at

Mike

Thanks for the reply Mike. It means a lot to get a little pat on the back. Makes all those hours of study worthwhile.

Hi Cyrus,

Yea I saw that. Thanks for answering every time I have a question and trying to help. I appreciate that

I respectfully disagree... given we're talking about traders who know what they're doing and have left psychology dilemma behind them.

1.for large account (500k+) it would be closer to 60-80%+
2.for medium size acc., it would be around 100-150%+
and
3.for small (test) account ($500) it can be anything from 500 to 3000%+

Again, it is early in the day on this one but it sure is starting to smell like a reversal on this one (daily). Would prefer to see a BEOVB BELOW 137.00 myself to get really interested, but either way I don't think it hangs in this area for very long.

If that happens and it breaks short, need to watch price action in zone of 135.50-136.00 for clues.

Interestingly enough, U/J seems to be possibly finding support at 92.00 vs. the outlook of E/J.

Nathan

There is no room for maybes in this business, but trading plans sure helps.
Resistance for my plan was located around 1.4880 (dump all) area.

The only smell I recognize it's of that fresh organic bread I'm about to take out from my oven...., but, but, but...
I Hope, you're right....G..