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  • #6,841
  • Oct 26, 2009 5:42am Oct 26, 2009 5:42am
I'm watching this pair also because it might give a short signal.

BOSS:
Obvious downtrend. The previous two bullish candles had a lower volume than the earlier candles under the SR from ~92. So I'm thinking that price might go down if the will more sellers in the current week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy_20091026_weekly.png Size: 115 KB



WORKER:
Here again the trend is bearish, the price made LL and HL; 20 ema was under 50 sma on this chart. So going with the trend I'm looking to short this pair if there will be a signal for that.

I would consider a good signal for short if the today's candle will close under the demand DSRI, making a lower low and engulfing the friday's candle. Also todays candle to have a higher volume than the previous candles.

Too many planets to align? We have the resistance at ~92, DSRI, fibonacci retracement leves. Now lets see how today's candle closes.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy_20091026_daily.png Size: 117 KB


What do you think? Is anyone looking for a LONG?
  • #6,842
  • Oct 26, 2009 7:27am Oct 26, 2009 7:27am
SHORT order activated after today open but quickly reversed. My first trade using this method!

Although the move up that started in Oct 13 seems impulsive (as Strat said) I chose to ignore it considering that all elements of the method all lined up along with the trends.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad.png Size: 23 KB


USDCAD is in a similar position considering the trend, just didnt reach the Weekly SR 1.068 yet. Will keep an eye on it this week.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,843
  • Oct 26, 2009 7:41am Oct 26, 2009 7:41am
Quoting Naws
hah you are loosing me here.. I scrolled back to 1995 when price was last in this area and price didn't twitch at the line so I guess in that way it is a youngin
Indeed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yen.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #6,844
  • Oct 26, 2009 8:32am Oct 26, 2009 8:32am
Hi

This is my first post so take it as such.

I can understand your interest in shorting the USDJPY but there is a good possibility that the trend has turned up on both the weekly and the daily. Okay so volume is down but it is reasonable. If volume increases in either direction then that will poss be the answer but I am inclined to follow the upward move. Having said that I would not be looking to trade this at the moment. But I am new to this method of trading.
John
  • #6,845
  • Oct 26, 2009 8:35am Oct 26, 2009 8:35am
Quoting strat
You are looking at too much detail, my friend. That is a downtrend that is making continuous LHs and LLs. Always look at the bigger picture - even on each time frame - ZOOM OUT.
Quoting Blackeagle
Try to look at HH & HL (LH & LL) in terms of swing highs-lows, not individual
bars.
Gentlemen, thank you for the feedback. So, to confirm, we're not interested in price fluctuations between the swings so much as we are identifying the swing itself?

On identifying the swing soon enough to actually be of use:

On the modified chart to reflect the LH and LL of USDCAD, I've drawn in the closest major psych number to each swing noting that they also match many major and minor SR lines. Surely...SURELY, it can't be that simple...can it???

Making a HUGE step out on a limb here, (feel free to saw it off as the ground isn't too far down so it won't hurt much) using PASR of course, if we are going to see some sort of LH swing high coming up, then it would occur at:

Near term the trendline around 1.0700 if it passes thru 1.0600
OR
Several days from now the 1.0600 psych/SR level if it decides to meander some
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #6,846
  • Oct 26, 2009 9:26am Oct 26, 2009 9:26am
If my previous post is anything close then tell me if I'm reading the past correctly here (I'm seeing that just because you can see what happened in the past, doesn't mean you understand it correctly)

On close of April 1st you are able to draw your first trend line from March 10th and with that bar making a sweet shooting star, a close below psych 1.2600 and a technical LH swing confirmation. The worker 20 is below the 50 and even though this is in the middle of consolidation, it's been going on for a while and the Boss 20/50 are starting narrow indicating consolidation might be coming to a close soon.

Most likely I'd have been stopped out on the 20th when it broke the high on the 17th, BUT, suspecting what I suspect now, I'd have thought it fairly safe to re-enter on close of the 23rd because at this point the worker 20 has crossed below the Boss and is already below the worker 50 AND just broke the then current DSRI line. Now, hindsight is better than 20/20 in this case and I can see where this could very easily go north because of where it closed but I'm only concerned with proper interpretation of swing high/low identification. Had I been able to see this I would still have put on the trade because I have no problems with 200 pip stop losses using my MM.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadpast.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #6,847
  • Oct 26, 2009 9:50am Oct 26, 2009 9:50am
Sorry for all the posts in a row here but I need to know if I've crossed some sort of mental hurdle here or if I'm just making this stuff up...

Sell it till is stops going down...so on the next confirmed swing high, as Strat and Blackeagle pointed out on the bigger picture, and again not doing analysis on the boss and big boss, you would sell.

You would know that was a loosing trade if you traded the larger trend because the next confirmed swing low would be negated by the next confirmed swing high if it was above the next most recent swing high?

Using my hypothetical chart as an example (NOTE: no analysis here or prediction, just using it for demonstration)

Sold at the first highlighted swing high which would be a confirmed LH, Once that first HH swing high had been confirmed in the 3rd highlighted area, I would know right then that I had just made Dr. Joe's 'Only sell wrong once' trade back at the last LH swing high and I would exit the trade on PASR if I could hit the next HL swing low(if I was brave). Right then if not.

Is any of this getting close?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad demo.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #6,848
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:01am Oct 26, 2009 10:01am
Quoting soso
SHORT order activated after today open but quickly reversed.
Order NOT activated, drats, should have had a look at the trading platform before opening my mouth. Sell order placed at 1.7100, missed by a few pips. I trade using Oanda and analysis on MT. Anyway order still stands.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,849
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:06am Oct 26, 2009 10:06am
hcristea:
I am looking for shorts in general. I was ready at 91,5 but the PA was not good. Now waiting...
93.20-93.50 are excellent to continue downtrend - we'll see. I think we will see history bottoms on usdjpy this year
  • #6,850
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:17am Oct 26, 2009 10:17am
Quoting Naws
What is that green line?
Don't worry about it - it's something from another of my methods/strategies.

I'm not going in to it as I don't want it to be the distraction DSRI was.

There is sufficient PASR without it to initiate good trades.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,851
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:19am Oct 26, 2009 10:19am
Quoting Donadoney
This seems to be a very important line on the cable.
"Those with ears, please let them see!"
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,852
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:21am Oct 26, 2009 10:21am
Quoting elitejets
Same line as my purple one I hope ...
Boss (weekly chart)
No, but your purple is that CONTROLLING DSRI supply line I mentioned earlier!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,853
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:23am Oct 26, 2009 10:23am
Quoting elitejets
I played around to see, looks like an SMA with a value between 150-170 but I can't get it quite right.
We're probably in big trouble now.
""I played around""

I never knew this, Nicola - tell us more!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,854
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:29am Oct 26, 2009 10:29am
Quoting Alexandra
Ahhhhhh...you are making a joke!...that one doesn't even have it's teeth yet! Have my eye on it though in here - you know how it is - can't take your eyes off the young ones! (Strat - that doesn't mean what you think it does!)
I still have my Buddy Holly/Hank Marvin eye frames I used to wear for playing these songs. Magic, bloody magic somebody invent a machine to take me back then - PLEASE!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,855
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:39am Oct 26, 2009 10:39am
I think we are approaching another point in time where the JPY pairs are lining up to tell us something.

There is a message there somewhere – we just need to watch and look for the footprints.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,856
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:47am Oct 26, 2009 10:47am
Quoting hcristea
I'm watching this pair also because it might give a short signal.

BOSS:
Obvious downtrend. The previous two bullish candles had a lower volume than the earlier candles under the SR from ~92. So I'm thinking that price might go down if the will more sellers in the current week.

Attachment


WORKER:
Here again the trend is bearish, the price made LL and HL; 20 ema was under 50 sma on this chart. So going with the trend I'm looking to short this pair if there will be a signal for that.

I would consider a good signal...
You will come horribly unstuck basing any forex trading decisions on volume.

You should read my posts on why volume in forex is totally meaningless before going any further.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,857
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:50am Oct 26, 2009 10:50am
Quoting soso
SHORT order activated after today open but quickly reversed. My first trade using this method!

Although the move up that started in Oct 13 seems impulsive (as Strat said) I chose to ignore it considering that all elements of the method all lined up along with the trends.

Attachment

USDCAD is in a similar position considering the trend, just didnt reach the Weekly SR 1.068 yet. Will keep an eye on it this week.
Both are approaching key levels - the more PATIENT trader would have waited to see how PRICE reacts at these levels.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,858
  • Oct 26, 2009 11:04am Oct 26, 2009 11:04am
Quoting mstandifer

On the modified chart to reflect the LH and LL of USDCAD, I've drawn in the closest major psych number to each swing noting that they also match many major and minor SR lines. Surely...SURELY, it can't be that simple...can it???
Mstandifer - I'm only starting out on the PASR path so you should keep that in mind and ignore what I say but....... I can't see what's wrong with what you suggest in the paragraph I've selected and quoted above.

Why bother to make it more complicated at this stage? If swings happen at SR lines (which they will do because that is the way they are drawn) then why isn't that enough? Reference to multiple TFs helps to contextualise a Daily chart (or indeed any chart) and therefore to cue a potential trade in what one hopes is the right direction.

At least that is the way I see it. The next bit is the trade with tight MM - which is a different issue of course.

Just my two pips worth.
  • #6,859
  • Oct 26, 2009 11:04am Oct 26, 2009 11:04am
Quoting strat
Both are approaching key levels - the more PATIENT trader would have waited to see how PRICE reacts at these levels.
Strat, regarding GBPCAD what are the levels you wait for? My nearest Weekly resistance lines are 1.753 and 1.765, first one was touched Friday and left us with the BEOB.

USDCAD didnt reach (my) Weekly resistance yet...

P.S. Regardless, it is true I need to excersise more patience. It is one psychological shortcoming that I recognized during my trading...
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,860
  • Oct 26, 2009 11:08am Oct 26, 2009 11:08am
Quoting stgeorge
Hi

This is my first post so take it as such.

I can understand your interest in shorting the USDJPY but there is a good possibility that the trend has turned up on both the weekly and the daily. Okay so volume is down but it is reasonable. If volume increases in either direction then that will poss be the answer but I am inclined to follow the upward move. Having said that I would not be looking to trade this at the moment. But I am new to this method of trading.
John
No, not even close - but Alexandra would be proud of you!

Forget volume in forex - it means NOTHING
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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