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  • #6,801
  • Oct 24, 2009 9:18pm Oct 24, 2009 9:18pm
A bit less Cable discussion that I would have thought.....so I will drop the question.....

What is the difference between last week's bar and that on 8/2/09??

I know some of you are playing the confirmation game - so if it opens lower, who is selling it? Is anyone buying it?

Yes, that is correct, I am not a seller.
  • #6,802
  • Edited 2:09am Oct 25, 2009 1:50am | Edited 2:09am
Anyone looking into EUR/GBP?

Monthly: More buying power than sellers'

Weekly: Last week's candle close with a long lower wick. Rejecting 90.00 level.

Daily: Price rejected 90.00 level which is also a fibo 38.2% drawn on daily swing low to high. Forms a BUOB. It also closed above the daily 20. Funny thing price closed right at 92.00 on my broker's feed.

I personally will wait to see how price reacts to 92.00. Wait for pasr to go long if good opportunity shows up. At the moment, I will just stand aside and see.

Comments and critisms very appreciated.

Thanks
Sean
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Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #6,803
  • Edited 3:07am Oct 25, 2009 2:03am | Edited 3:07am
Quoting Alexandra
A bit less Cable discussion that I would have thought.....so I will drop the question.....

What is the difference between last week's bar and that on 8/2/09??

I know some of you are playing the confirmation game - so if it opens lower, who is selling it? Is anyone buying it?

Yes, that is correct, I am not a seller.
I'll take a shot.

8/2/2009's Weekly candle close as a shooting star after a strong preceeding bullish trend. The candle also closed below a SR that I have on my chart @ 1.6750issh. A good sign for reversal.

Whereas last week's candle did form a similar looking candle, it does not have a strong preceeding bullish trend. It only has the week's before's BUOB to show for. Besides that, the bearish candles from 8/2/2009 to 10/4/2009 should only be considered as a pullback/correction of the overall bullish trend? Hence you are looking for long opportunities only.

Comments?

Thanks
Sean
Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #6,804
  • Edited 3:01am Oct 25, 2009 2:28am | Edited 3:01am
Quoting Alexandra
A bit less Cable discussion that I would have thought.....so I will drop the question.....

What is the difference between last week's bar and that on 8/2/09??

I know some of you are playing the confirmation game - so if it opens lower, who is selling it? Is anyone buying it?

Yes, that is correct, I am not a seller.
I must admit my first reaction is to sell whats looks like a very nice weekly pinbar but we are heading into a confluence of support with the 1.628 level + BOSS 50 + WORKER 20 + WORKER 50 + previous trendline resistance (lots of reasons for buyers to come in).

However:

BIG BOSS trend = down
BOSS trend = sideways
WORKER trend = down

I will wait for a swing high for a better short entry...would look to get to breakeven quickly.

We also have US GDP this week so I expect some intense volatility.
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #6,805
  • Edited 3:02am Oct 25, 2009 2:46am | Edited 3:02am
Quoting Dabestone
Anyone looking into EUR/GBP?

Monthly: More buying power than sellers'

Weekly: Last week's candle close with a long lower wick. Rejecting 90.00 level.

Daily: Price rejected 90.00 level which is also a fibo 38.2% drawn on daily swing low to high. Forms a BUOB. It also closed above the daily 20. Funny thing price closed right at 92.00 on my broker's feed.

I personally will wait to see how price reacts to 92.00. Wait for pasr to go long if good opportunity shows up. At the moment, I will just stand aside and see.

Comments and critisms...
This looks like the better GBP play but I also note the strong resistance at 93 so I would be looking to get to BE once we pass 92.5. We have WORKER 20 as support.
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #6,806
  • Oct 25, 2009 5:53am Oct 25, 2009 5:53am
Quoting Alexandra
A bit less Cable discussion that I would have thought.....so I will drop the question.....

What is the difference between last week's bar and that on 8/2/09??

I know some of you are playing the confirmation game - so if it opens lower, who is selling it? Is anyone buying it?

Yes, that is correct, I am not a seller.
A meaningful difference (for me!) is that this candle could be just a pullback candle in a new (short term?) uptrend that started with the 10/11 week considering the size of the 10/11 BUOB candle.

Am neither short/long but I do favor the long side and I need to see clear evidence that the trend up will continue. Weekly support is at 1.62 and Daily at 1.605.
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,807
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:01am Oct 25, 2009 7:01am
Reviewing my charts I like the potential of USDCAD this week.

I am looking for price to return and test the 1.0650 area where we have confluence with the 1.0650 support + TL + WORKER 50. I want to see a Swing High + bearish PA to enter a short for a push at the major psycho 1.00.

BIG BOSS + BOSS + WORKER all working together.

I suppose the one big negative of this setup is we would then be trapped between the WORKER 50 and the 20 so any position needs to get to BE quickly.
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Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #6,808
  • Oct 25, 2009 8:47am Oct 25, 2009 8:47am
Quoting soso
A meaningful difference (for me!) is that this candle could be just a pullback candle in a new (short term?) uptrend that started with the 10/11 week considering the size of the 10/11 BUOB candle.

.
  • #6,809
  • Edited 12:20pm Oct 25, 2009 12:17pm | Edited 12:20pm
I'll be the first one to admit to being drunk from inhaling the incredible bouquet wafting from any currency recently with AUD or EUR in the name.With all these strong trends at the forefront of our minds, its easy to get blinders about the options for price movement. It can go up/down and lest we forget, not much of anywhere....until it does.

Case in point, the cable looks like its still in a 21 week trading range to me, albeit a 1000 pip one (see your BOSS line chart.

I would recommend to those who have not been on this thread long enough to review the posts expressing the widespread angst experienced by the new members who had to wait for the end of the chop that preceded these last strong runs.

The BUOB/Pinbar combo would look a whole lot more like a pullback to me if it were in a runaway uptrend than it does in this trading range.

An ATM trade may turn into a trend trade but otherwise it sounds like trade hunting.

just my amateur opinion
walt
  • #6,810
  • Oct 25, 2009 1:06pm Oct 25, 2009 1:06pm
Quoting Sinan
This looks like the better GBP play but I also note the strong resistance at 93 so I would be looking to get to BE once we pass 92.5. We have WORKER 20 as support.
It seems that statistically in the past when the price entered the 0.91 station then always reach 0,93.
I would stay out because of the big sl and the too near target.
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  • #6,811
  • Oct 25, 2009 1:24pm Oct 25, 2009 1:24pm
Quoting Alexandra
Not sure....don't forget the market was wrong footed on Friday's figures. All the economists got it wrong again. I always pay more notice of the last bar and what that tells me. The bullish action the week before could have been caused by the banks' economists predicting a good figure?

Still, not that fussed as I don't care about the news. I would short cable below the 1.57 level and go long above 1.67. Combine the 2 boss bars and you get a 2week spinning top. Indecision. Wait for the LHs or HLs to show the way. I'll stick with short bias.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #6,812
  • Oct 25, 2009 1:56pm Oct 25, 2009 1:56pm
Quoting Alexandra

Yes, that is correct, I am not a seller.
Alexandra you always seem to do the opposite of what is most obvious on the charts. With usdjpy you buy when the main trend is down (although I understand your reasoning), on gbpusd you don't want to sell when you get an SS in long term downtrend with 2 LH's and a LL on weekly. It sometimes seems like you know something we don't.

But what I am learning from you is that we need to look beyond our first impression of the chart to better understand what the market is doing.


About GBPUSD I wouldn't place an order for obvious reasons, but I still see it as returning to the long term downtrend. We had that first SS at strong resistnace and 50 fib from the move down. Then we had a lower low and a lower high put in by the second SS.
  • #6,813
  • Edited 5:15pm Oct 25, 2009 4:57pm | Edited 5:15pm
My take on it in the chart.

I also believe that the reaction around the 1.6250 area will tell us where price may be going in the mean time as that is where we have some daily S/R, the daily 20 and daily 50, and 50% fib of the recent move up.

One other thing to take note of is that GU has been the strongest of the Sterling pairs holding its ground for the most part so this may be something to consider?? OR maybe it's got some catching up to do??
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  • #6,814
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:14pm Oct 25, 2009 7:14pm
HH and HL. It's easy to say and easy to see in hindsight but I believe I am beginning to see how the HH and HL formations show price direction.

Area 1 is showing price making HH and some HL but not what I'm beginning to notice leads to a breakout.

Area 2 is more angular in it's shape. Notice the almost regular HL as it runs up against resistance and breaks hard at the smallest candle.

Area 3 is where we are now. Again, my confidence isn't there yet but I see these all over the place and they usually break in the direction of the slope when they are shaped this way.

Please note I am completely disregarding Boss and Big Boss charts here, just discussing a pattern I am beginning to see. Am I just seeing things or are these reliable occurences?
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  • #6,815
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:24pm Oct 25, 2009 7:24pm
Quoting mstandifer
HH and HL. It's easy to say and easy to see in hindsight but I believe I am beginning to see how the HH and HL formations show price direction.

Area 1 is showing price making HH and some HL but not what I'm beginning to notice leads to a breakout.

Area 2 is more angular in it's shape. Notice the almost regular HL as it runs up against resistance and breaks hard at the smallest candle.

Area 3 is where we are now. Again, my confidence isn't there yet but I see these all over the place and they usually break in the direction of the slope when...
You are looking at too much detail, my friend. That is a downtrend that is making continuous LHs and LLs. Always look at the bigger picture - even on each time frame - ZOOM OUT.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,816
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:42pm Oct 25, 2009 7:42pm
Quoting Lou
Right. With the trend.
OK, so are you sure you are identifying the correct 1st support?

This was my first PASR strategy which is also what we teach and recommend for beginners. I refined this into my second PASR strategy which I call my daily scalping strategy - this is, in your case, sell at resistance then take full profit at 50 pips.

This was many years back and my back testing showed that I was more profitable just taking profit every 50 pips. However, I realised I would never make the big time with 50 pip moves at the $/pip level which my psyche allows me to control. There are many traders with far better control of their psyche than I who do this on a daily regular basis, week in, week out with triple, quadruple and more $/pip values.

Since I found this boring and not profitable at the $/pip I can control, I moved onto swings and trends.

Instead of trading to the 1st resistance/support, you might want to try TP at 50 pips with higher $/pip values - it all depends on your style and emotional control.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,817
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:46pm Oct 25, 2009 7:46pm
Quoting Dabestone
Thanks Strat, I will get on and make sure i study these things well.

Thanks
Sean
Any problems with this, just ask
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,818
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:53pm Oct 25, 2009 7:53pm
Quoting Lou
[color=Green]I need to have firm answers to...
""Some solutions based on your comments: set up the trade to begin with using smaller lot sizes and add on as the trade progresses in my direction. Another method:Instead of closing the trade at b/e take some money off the table at that point. I always place limit orders.""

Lou, this doesn't make any sense - if you are trading from resistance to 1st support, as you say, how can you add on? It seems to me you are not clear in your own mind how you want to trade and this being the case, you will always have conflict.

If you are trading from resistance to 1st support then it's dead easy - pile in the trade with your total amount and then TP the whole lot at support. Then , next trade, rinse and repeat.

Am I missing something?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,819
  • Oct 25, 2009 8:02pm Oct 25, 2009 8:02pm
Quoting Alexandra
A bit less Cable discussion that I would have thought.....so I will drop the question.....

What is the difference between last week's bar and that on 8/2/09??

I know some of you are playing the confirmation game - so if it opens lower, who is selling it? Is anyone buying it?

Yes, that is correct, I am not a seller.
What really interests me with GBPUSD is that the DSRI supply line is CONTROLLING all time frames!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,820
  • Oct 25, 2009 8:45pm Oct 25, 2009 8:45pm
Quoting mstandifer
HH and HL. It's easy to say and easy to see in hindsight but I believe I am beginning to see how the HH and HL formations show price direction.

Am I just seeing things or are these reliable occurences?
Try to look at HH & HL (LH & LL) in terms of swing highs-lows, not individual
bars.
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