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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #6,781
  • Edited 12:17am Oct 24, 2009 12:14am | Edited 12:17am
Quoting strat
Much more to it than that, Lou, considering your time and experience in this business.

My initial observation is that you are trading with scared money and you are gripped with FEAR....
I need to have firm answers to questions like .... what will I do if price goes to this level or that level? Write them down so I can stay true to my plan.
Gripped with fear to me means paralysis. Not so. But extremely cautious. What was the problem with moving my stop to break even after price had moved 60 pips then retraced 30? Capital was preserved.
Some solutions based on your comments: set up the trade to begin with using smaller lot sizes and add on as the trade progresses in my direction. Another method:Instead of closing the trade at b/e take some money off the table at that point. I always place limit orders.
  • #6,782
  • Oct 24, 2009 2:26am Oct 24, 2009 2:26am
Quoting strat
Sean, if you considered that candle a hammer then either:

1) You have not learned anything on this thread

OR

2) Your candle recognition skills STINK.

Either way, you should NOT be trading until you resolve this as it will eventually result in your financial demise.

Hammers and Shooting Stars are the BASIC FOUNDATION for teaching this method. You cannot progress until you know these. This shows that you have not put in the hard work to spend hour after hour studying charts to identify and learn these.

Those candles you referred...
Thanks Strat, I will get on and make sure i study these things well.

Thanks
Sean
Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #6,783
  • Oct 24, 2009 9:10am Oct 24, 2009 9:10am
Quoting strat
NZDUSD has reached a "critical" point and the last 3 candles tell us a powerful story.
Attempting to apply what I've learned here:

On the daily NZDUSD, the last 3 candles are important because the most recent 2 are successive IB's and the OB spawning them came very close to major resistance at .7650 but was rejected.

At the same time they show higher lows indicating fewer sellers during this period of indecision. The zone between .7550 and .7650 was historically a very active area of consolidation and should pose significant resistance which would make a breach and successful retest of .7650 very important.

With average daily ranges in excess of 100 pips and the information above, the next breakout bar could very powerful and could well tell the tale for this pair. An average bar with a break up will carry it well past .7650 and a break down with a close below .7500 could be the beginnings of a reversal.

If I were going to trade this (but I'm not there yet in my confidence). I would buy a break and retest of .7650 or sell a break down thru .7500 upon successful retest.

Furthermore, because the area between .7550 and .7900 is choppy, I'd have some fairly close take profit levels for that first trade if it was a buy and then begin looking for counter trend trades if they presented themselves in the chop.

Comments?
-m
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,784
  • Oct 24, 2009 10:36am Oct 24, 2009 10:36am
Quoting strat

This is PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE at its finest and SO HARD to do for younger traders.
Not all THAT easy for older traiders either!!

Thanks for your kind words Strat. I'm trying make every trade count as a positive decision based on careful analysis rather than a 'punt' but sometimes the temptation to 'have a go' is very strong particularly on strongly trading pairs like the AUDs and NZDs - but these have enormous spreads and daily ranges which I find quite scary at the moment, so am considering avoiding them until I feel more comfortable. Sometimes it is quite a relief when I find NOTHING to trade when I go through the charts in the evening!

Slow progress is still progress though!

Thank you for your teaching Strat, and the encouragement you give to novices in this thread.

Best etc.
  • #6,785
  • Oct 24, 2009 11:14am Oct 24, 2009 11:14am
Quoting mstandifer
Attempting to apply what I've learned here:

On the daily NZDUSD, the last 3 candles are important because the most recent 2 are successive IB's and the OB spawning them came very close to major resistance at .7650 but was rejected....
In agreement with you 1000% on this. But also I took a look at the aussie her cousin? Sorta tells a similar story to me. I am looking for a break of 7500, and a pullback to enter short. I will not be taking a long trade on a break of 7650. Why? The last two days of the US dollar index indicate some sort of relinquishing in the seller frenzy, with a potential tweezer bottom forming on the daily with an inverted hammer stuck between !!! I picked up in Strat's posts that checking other sources of info related to the pair is a good idea in analysis. As always this is my inexperienced position and I would love some critque of it.
Attached Image
  • #6,786
  • Oct 24, 2009 11:49am Oct 24, 2009 11:49am
Quoting strat
Be careful though, especially with GBPCAD as this last wave up looks more like an Impulse Wave to me rather than a Corrective Wave - but I'm no EW expert.
Funny enough but my main system before finding your thread was "trading off the first correction of the first impulse in a new trend", by far the best thing EW theory left behind along with the simple ABC correction. No need to label or count anything, if we have a new impulsive move after a (prolonged) trend then I was simply looking for a simple ABC correction to position myself on the new trend. Not a bad strategy at all, still using it but setups like this on Daily timeframe happen maybe once a month at most.
But I'm digressing right now...Anyway I think it can be a good complement to the PASR method.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,787
  • Oct 24, 2009 12:49pm Oct 24, 2009 12:49pm
I thought this background on the inverted hammer would contribute to the thread.

By Steve Nison (great book on PA)
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  • #6,788
  • Oct 24, 2009 3:08pm Oct 24, 2009 3:08pm
Quoting Blackeagle
Getting ready for next leg up if....
if...
It seems too easy Blackeagle.
Audchf Big Boss has been screaming "bulls" for 9 months, Boss is also bullish and the worker is now travelling in a zone full S/R stations. I would like these possibilities: 1)Look for a nice price action around any support level
2) (safer) Wait for a retracement to the 0.91 level and then look for pa.
  • #6,789
  • Oct 24, 2009 3:19pm Oct 24, 2009 3:19pm
Quoting oblo
if...
It seems too easy Blackeagle.
Audchf Big Boss has been screaming "bulls" for 9 months, Boss is also bullish and the worker is now travelling in a zone full S/R stations. I would like these possibilities: 1)Look for a nice price action around any support level
2) (safer) Wait for a retracement to the 0.91 level and then look for pa.
Back here again?

What's wrong with all the indicator threads you've been on? Not working out so you thought you'd give REAL trading another shot.

You will NEVER, EVER be a successful, profitable trader if you keep switching from system to system, method to method, strategy to strategy.

Find a method/strategy that you believe in and understand and LEARN it until you can do it with your eyes closed.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,790
  • Oct 24, 2009 3:30pm Oct 24, 2009 3:30pm
Oh Strat, call it human weakness of a beginner.
I have to re-assure myself periodically why this method can work for me.



Quoting strat
Back here again?

What's wrong with all the indicator threads you've been on? Not working out so you thought you'd give REAL trading another shot.

You will NEVER, EVER be a successful, profitable trader if you keep switching from system to system, method to method, strategy to strategy.

Find a method/strategy that you believe in and understand and LEARN it until you can do it with your eyes closed.
  • #6,791
  • Oct 24, 2009 3:57pm Oct 24, 2009 3:57pm
Quoting oblo
Oh Strat, call it human weakness of a beginner.
I have to re-assure myself periodically why this method can work for me.
Bull shit! You're just looking for the Holy Grail. If you had the sense to read and UNDERSTAND this thread, you would find it and then, having found it, you would know what to do.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,792
  • Oct 24, 2009 4:14pm Oct 24, 2009 4:14pm
Quoting soso
Funny enough but my main system before finding your thread was "trading off the first correction of the first impulse in a new trend", by far the best thing EW theory left behind along with the simple ABC correction. No need to label or count anything, if we have a new impulsive move after a (prolonged) trend then I was simply looking for a simple ABC correction to position myself on the new trend. Not a bad strategy at all, still using it but setups like this on Daily timeframe happen maybe once a month at most.
But I'm digressing right now...Anyway...
Great minds think alike, soso - this is one of my Advanced Strategies!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,793
  • Oct 24, 2009 4:16pm Oct 24, 2009 4:16pm
Quoting Donadoney
In agreement with you 1000% on this. But also I took a look at the aussie her cousin? Sorta tells a similar story to me. I am looking for a break of 7500, and a pullback to enter short. I will not be taking a long trade on a break of 7650. Why? The last two...
What does you squiggly wiggly RSI indicator crap tell you that PRICE doesn't?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,794
  • Oct 24, 2009 4:19pm Oct 24, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting mstandifer
Attempting to apply what I've learned here:

On the daily NZDUSD, the last 3 candles are important because the most recent 2 are successive IB's and the OB spawning them came very close to major resistance at .7650 but was rejected....
but I'm not there yet in my confidence

Not yet, but you ARE getting there - one small step at a time - good "Stratting"!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,795
  • Oct 24, 2009 4:30pm Oct 24, 2009 4:30pm
Quoting Lou
[color=Green]I need to have firm answers to...
But you never answered what your trading style is - are you a typical J16 trader, swing trader or trend trader?

If you don't know, then this is part of your problem.

Apart from my ATM trades (which I know at the outset when PLANNING the trade), I am a trend trader. As such, I trade with 150 pip to 200 pip, sometimes more, SL, to keep me in the trend. Also, I never force myself to take a profit just because the establishment says you should. I only take profit when there is reverse PASR or when my Dr. Joe strategy gives me a loss.

In addition to SL based on PASR, you also have to base them on your trading style. In other words, for me, one SL strategy for ATM trades and another for trend trades.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,796
  • Oct 24, 2009 4:35pm Oct 24, 2009 4:35pm
Quoting strat
What does you squiggly wiggly RSI indicator crap tell you that PRICE doesn't?
It comes with the chart automatically from Stockcharts.com. I don't have a feed for the US dollar index. Sorry.
  • #6,797
  • Oct 24, 2009 8:42pm Oct 24, 2009 8:42pm
Quoting strat
But you never answered what your trading style is - are you a typical J16 trader, swing trader or trend trader?

If you don't know, then this is part of your problem.

Apart from my ATM trades (which I know at the outset when PLANNING the trade), I am a trend trader. As such, I trade with 150 pip to 200 pip, sometimes more, SL, to keep me in the trend. Also, I never force myself to take a profit just because the establishment says you should. I only take profit when there is reverse PASR or when my Dr. Joe strategy gives me a loss.

In addition...

I look at support and resistance for entering and exits. So that would be in the style of J16.
  • #6,798
  • Oct 24, 2009 9:53pm Oct 24, 2009 9:53pm
Quoting Lou
I look at support and resistance for entering and exits. So that would be in the style of J16.
So you are trading from support to 1st resistance and resistance to 1st support - right?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,799
  • Oct 24, 2009 9:55pm Oct 24, 2009 9:55pm
Quoting Donadoney
It comes with the chart automatically from Stockcharts.com. I don't have a feed for the US dollar index. Sorry.
Ah, I see, OK - no need to be sorry.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,800
  • Oct 24, 2009 10:00pm Oct 24, 2009 10:00pm
Quoting strat
So you are trading from support to 1st resistance and resistance to 1st support - right?
Right. With the trend.
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