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Ichimoku forever

  • #5,521
  • Oct 24, 2009 7:29am Oct 24, 2009 7:29am
Quoting Iskander
Yes ur right man , but I dont have a minute of free time at work , I work as a broker so i have to deal with stocks , but my real passion is forex , especially now when Ive learned ichi . Starting next week i will follow ur advice , taking entries on daily chart . So u guys now use ichi along with BW and divergent ? Im a little confused about fractals and div , which one should i follow , or should I follow both of them ?
well man forget about the fractal and Div they cause a lot of confusion, keep following the pure Ichi art we provide, we now have several ways trading ichi , a lot of people are posting entries using several signals i think they are enough to follow , the Fractal and Div was just an added indicator to help us identify the S/R levels which is clearly shown by ichi Flat Lines .
enjoy Ichimoku
have a nice weekend
  • #5,522
  • Oct 24, 2009 8:27am Oct 24, 2009 8:27am
some words i read and they helped me to RM my money
===============Q================
Understand how Risk Management works. Risk is the effect (positive or negative) of an event or series of events that take place in one or several locations. It is computed from the probability of the event becoming an issue and the impact it would have (See Risk = Probability X Impact). Various factors should be identified in order to analyze risk, including:

Event: What could happen?
Probability: How likely is it to happen?
Impact: How bad will it be if it happens?
Mitigation: How can you reduce the Probability (and by how much)?
Contingency: How can you reduce the Impact (and by how much)?
Reduction = Mitigation X Contingency
Exposure = Risk – Reduction

After you identify the above, the result will be what’s called Exposure – that’s the amount of risk you simply can’t avoid. Exposure may also be referred to as Threat, Liability, Severity or other names but they pretty much mean the same thing. It will be used to help determine if the planned activity should take place.


===============Q================
feel free to discuss this subject with me at any time
  • #5,523
  • Oct 24, 2009 9:00am Oct 24, 2009 9:00am
It is very easy to decide how much you can risk , it is how much you are ready to lose .
we always know how much we are gonna lose but no one can tell how much they will win , so work on what you know and leave what you don't know to the market it will decide how much it will give you
  • #5,524
  • Oct 24, 2009 1:11pm Oct 24, 2009 1:11pm
Quoting vic_elc
Hey Bro thanks for the welcome

yeah the flat lines is something very important they represent the S/R levels , they also attract the price most of the time , and shows the trend less moments ,
i know that ur EG didn't move far below the Ks Weekly but this was expected , the price is inside the weekly kumo , a close below there is the only confirmation of trend continuation.
hope ur position is covered by now if it still open , the safest thing to do is always move ur SL with KS it will save ur money for sure
wishing you a nice weekend
Cheers...
Thanks vic
  • #5,525
  • Oct 24, 2009 1:53pm Oct 24, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting vic_elc
It is very easy to decide how much you can risk , it is how much you are ready to lose .
we always know how much we are gonna lose but no one can tell how much they will win , so work on what you know and leave what you don't know to the market it will decide how much it will give you

Golden words ! Whats ur RM and MM 2% per trade ?
  • #5,526
  • Oct 24, 2009 1:54pm Oct 24, 2009 1:54pm
Attached here are Daily and H4 charts of GBPUSD.
Friday we saw the break of up trend line on H4, thus retesting the daily down trend line, from the daily charts we can expect the price to touch Kijun sen before retracing back from fridays down move, while on the H4 this corresponds to fib 23.6, It seems that the up trend will continue
Any comments are welcome
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.JPG Size: 181 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4.JPG Size: 181 KB
  • #5,527
  • Edited 9:42pm Oct 24, 2009 9:09pm | Edited 9:42pm
Javed
monthly is bearish we are under the cloud , weekly we are inside the cloud and we have a shooting star , the last time we saw it in august the price went down 1350 pip almost . daily we have a bearish candle (engulfing bearish ) coming all the way from above the cloud to close under .indicating a bearish move . but this candle is huge and to trade this candle u have to wait until price break it or u draw a fib on it and enter short at a retracement . but this is not ichi .
to make it short , ichi tell me the pair is bearish but do not give me an entry and i will be waiting to have a signal to short this pair during next week .if i am wrong please correct me .
regards
PS : maybe the up move u are waiting for will be the retracement along the big bearish daily candle, but still i wouldnt go long while all of the above is telling me the pair is bearish now .

Quoting Javed
Attached here are Daily and H4 charts of GBPUSD.
Friday we saw the break of up trend line on H4, thus retesting the daily down trend line, from the daily charts we can expect the price to touch Kijun sen before retracing back from fridays down move, while on the H4 this corresponds to fib 23.6, It seems that the up trend will continue
Any comments are welcome
  • #5,528
  • Oct 25, 2009 2:12am Oct 25, 2009 2:12am
Sameer,
Thanks for your comment
I dont consider monthly charts, since its a quite big time interval, but after seeing it, I would like to note the following:
=> On the monthly Kijun Sen has been flat for almost 10 months now, indicating a flat trend
=> While the price has closed over Tenkan Sen for almost 5 months now, which tells a possible change in trend direction.

About the weekly chart (Attached here)
There was a week signal for an uptrend (Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen cross below the clouds) and the price tested the upper cloud before moving towards the Kijun Sen, right now on the weekly PA is in the cloud but above tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, suggesting bullish movement, any bearish movement is possible only after PA closing below tenkan Sen with the target being till Kijun Sen

About the daily chart
Always take into consideration the width of the cloud, a thin cloud doesnt show strong support and resistance and is also an indication of change/ weakness in trend

About 4h
since the price closed below Kijun Sen, we can tarket the upper boundary of the cloud for support, which also conincides 50% retracement of the previous uptrend on 4H. by using Fib its just an extra confirmation and the culster formation of fibs and cloud is a sign of important support.

Your comments are welcome=))


Quoting samer960
Javed
monthly is bearish we are under the cloud , weekly...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDWeekly.JPG Size: 157 KB
  • #5,529
  • Edited 2:55am Oct 25, 2009 2:39am | Edited 2:55am
Quoting Iskander
Golden words ! Whats ur RM and MM 2% per trade ?
no man it is not per trade it is the total risk i can make with money
2.5% of total balance is the best thing to do , you can divide them into positions . and the position you move its SL to BE you can droop it from your RM calculation and look for another position (risk). i think this the best thing to done
have a nice weekend
cheers
  • #5,530
  • Edited 3:50am Oct 25, 2009 3:35am | Edited 3:50am
Quoting Makaya
As a reminder, here are the conditions:
on the 5min chart:
To buy:
- price above the kumo cloud
- tenkan sen crossing the kijun sen from below above the kumo cloud
- chikou span above the price
*It is recommended in addition to these conditions to confirm the trend on the higher time frame. This is how I usually confirm:
For 15m, 30m and 1H charts (sometimes I confirm on the 4H too if I want to take a larger position)
- price above the cloud
- tenkan sen above kijun sen

To sell:
- price below the kumo cloud
- tenkan sen crossing the kijun sen from...
See my expert in attachment. Agreeable with above rules except H4 confirmation (I can add this, if any wants, but I don't think of any significant results it can add).

SL and TP are fixed. You can do an optimization to get best values for them.

Results are not amazing. I think, because of fixed SL (as I briefly overlooked a chart). If you have more time, I can more precisely investigate results Any useful advices are welcome
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: results.jpg Size: 95 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ichi_v1.ex4   6 KB | 479 downloads
  • #5,531
  • Edited 4:27am Oct 25, 2009 3:50am | Edited 4:27am
Hi again
my monthly chart do not show what u have said , please look at attached chart. ( maybe i dont have enough data )
for weekly u are right we have a bullish cross below the cloud but the price was rejected by senkou span and formed shouting star at least after
this i can presume that the level at witch the price was rejected is a strong resistance .
as for daily after such huge candle of 390 pips , we might see a retracement.
as for 4 h chart we are so near by having a cross ( bearish one ) above a the cloud witch is even a weak signal is still a sign of bearish
all this said , i would like to thank you for posting your charts and for your comments this way we all learn from each other . but still i believe caution is required with GU .
regards


Quoting Javed
Sameer,
Thanks for your comment
I dont consider monthly charts, since its a quite big time interval, but after seeing it, I would like to note the following:
=> On the monthly Kijun Sen has been flat for almost 10 months now, indicating a flat trend
=> While the price has closed over Tenkan Sen for almost 5 months now, which tells a possible change in trend direction.

About the weekly chart (Attached here)
There was a week signal for an uptrend (Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen cross below the clouds) and the price tested the upper cloud before moving...
  • #5,532
  • Oct 25, 2009 4:10am Oct 25, 2009 4:10am
Sameer,
Your monthly chart is showing data till Nov, 2008
Please find here updated monthly chart for GBPUSD
and please tell what settings your using for Ichi, i am using 9,26,52
We have to wait for the cross on 4h, may be after that I will change my opinion, but I have seen that tenkan sen and kijun sen many a times stick to each other and then continue again without crossing.
So if I were not to prognose and be in the "now" moment I will wait till we get a cross on 4H.

Quoting samer960
Hi again
my monthly chart do not show what u have said , please look at attached chart. ( maybe i dont have enough data )
for weekly u are right we have a bullish cross below the cloud but the...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDMonthly.JPG Size: 165 KB
  • #5,533
  • Edited 6:41am Oct 25, 2009 4:26am | Edited 6:41am
hi
i am using same settings as u . i restarted my platform and gave me now same chart as yours . sorry for posting the previous chart i will delete it as i didn't pay attention it gave me until NOV 2008, because other time frames were OK .
my opinion remain the same.
as u have said lets wait for 4 h cross for u to change your mind and i will wait for a weekly break of s.span to change mine
thank you .

Quoting Javed
Sameer,
Your monthly chart is showing data till Nov, 2008
Please find here updated monthly chart for GBPUSD
and please tell what settings your using for Ichi, i am using 9,26,52
We have to wait for the cross on 4h, may be after that I will change my opinion, but I have seen that tenkan sen and kijun sen many a times stick to each other and then continue again without crossing.
So if I were not to prognose and be in the "now" moment I will wait till we get a cross on 4H.
  • #5,534
  • Oct 25, 2009 4:43am Oct 25, 2009 4:43am
Quoting vic_elc
no man it is not per trade it is the total risk i can make with money
2.5% of total balance is the best thing to do , you can divide them into positions . and the position you move its SL to BE you can droop it from your RM calculation and look for another position (risk). i think this the best thing to done
have a nice weekend
cheers
got it ! thanks !
  • #5,535
  • Oct 25, 2009 5:11am Oct 25, 2009 5:11am
Quoting SanMiguel
Does anyone know where the posts are that talk about why the Asian session often retraces? bids and offers...
I'm also interested in seeing why the Sunday gap is often filled or why markets fill the gap pretty soon after opening.
any ideas?
  • #5,536
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:05am Oct 25, 2009 7:05am
Quoting vic_elc
no man it is not per trade it is the total risk i can make with money
2.5% of total balance is the best thing to do , you can divide them into positions . and the position you move its SL to BE you can droop it from your RM calculation and look for another position (risk). i think this the best thing to done
have a nice weekend
cheers
Hallo Vic,

I'm new to Forex. Can you please explain about 2.5% of total balance Risk Management ? Example, I have $2000 in my account. Does is mean that I must enter with MAXIMUM of $50 only (sum of ALL pairs that I enter) ? If I have 1:10.000 , it means I must enter with maximum of 5 Lots for ALL of pairs ? When must I exit the system if Lost (via the StopLost of 30 Pips or more / less ?). For this system, we don't need to see the Pivot & S/R ?
Sorry for my bad english

Thanks before.
Best Regards,
- utpala -
  • #5,537
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:34am Oct 25, 2009 7:34am
Hello

I’ll give you a brief example might help you managing you risk and money.

Assume you have an account with 100$, your risk shall not be more than 2.5% = 2.5$
This 2.5$ is to be divided into several position .the SL is depending on whatever the system you use tells you , Ichimoku said that the SL is the other side of the kumo , but any way let’s forget about the system and see how great it is when dividing your risk on small positions.
Let’s say that we have divided the 2.5% into 5 positions with fixed Risk: Reward 1:1 means that SL is -50 pips and TP is + 50 pips
Let’s see what could happen when we lose or win

5 winners >>>> +250 Pip which is +50 pip using the whole 2.5%
4 winners + 1 losses >>> 200-50 = +150 pip
3 winners + 2 losses >>> 150-100 = +50 pip
2 winners + 3 losses >>> 100-150 = -50 pip
1 winner + 4 losses >>> 50-200 = -150 pip
5 losses >>>>>-250 which is +50 pip using the whole 2.5%

if you used the 2.5% on 5 different pairs with a strong system and strong MM the chance of loosing is very small and even if you lost the whole 5 or whatever number of positions you opened your loses will also be small .

I encourage everyone in here to stop thinking of making fast money and start think of how to manage and risk the money, we are all sure that ichimoku provides us with the high quality signal we need whatever was the strategy we are following , now is the time to think like real money


feel free to ask about anything
have a nice weekend all
  • #5,538
  • Oct 25, 2009 8:00am Oct 25, 2009 8:00am
Quoting utpala168
Hallo Vic,

I'm new to Forex. Can you please explain about 2.5% of total balance Risk Management ? Example, I have $2000 in my account. Does is mean that I must enter with MAXIMUM of $50 only (sum of ALL pairs that I enter) ? If I have 1:10.000 , it means I must enter with maximum of 5 Lots for ALL of pairs ? When must I exit the system if Lost (via the StopLost of 30 Pips or more / less ?). For this system, we don't need to see the Pivot & S/R ?
Sorry for my bad english

Thanks before.
Best Regards,
- utpala -
$50 is the maximum you are willing to lose on any trade. This means that if you enter a trade and your stop loss is 50 pips away, you should risk $50 over that 50 pips ie $1 per pip.
5 lots is much much more, it is equivalent to about $50 per pip (depending on the currency) and over 50 pips you would therefore lose $2500.
  • #5,539
  • Oct 25, 2009 8:12am Oct 25, 2009 8:12am
Hey Vic

Thanks for the MM explanation, the only question I have is, say you have 5 positions and you work out your 2.5% and divide it up, what if you then see another position and want to enter, do you avoid it because you have are already risking your 2.5%?

Also is there an EA that can automatically work out your mm for you when you enter trades.

Also if you only have one trade a day do you risk the full 2.5% on that trade

And is the 2.5% calculated after every trade or daily from your account size.

Just realised thats more then 1 question lol

Hope this is ok

Thanks
  • #5,540
  • Oct 25, 2009 8:16am Oct 25, 2009 8:16am
Remember, the 2.5% you risked should be the absolute limit you are psychologically prepared to lose in a day. Losinfg it must be something you've already come to terms with. It's no good setting a stop loss which chews up the 2.5% but which you were not personally ready to lose / risk, because you end up becoming bitter and more susceptible to bad trading afterwards, which is dangerous because this can snowball and infect you for weeks after.

Chngster

Quoting vic_elc
Hello...
Thank you Crucial Point, Bleek, Trizzle, Darkstar
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