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  • #6,761
  • Oct 23, 2009 10:04am Oct 23, 2009 10:04am
Quoting Dabestone
Strat, am abit confused about your question. Do you mean that:

1) It is not consider as a hammer pattern?
or
2) Where/what area is the hammer formed in my chart?
or
3) You don't see a hammer at all?

Thanks
Sean.
Sean, if you considered that candle a hammer then either:

1) You have not learned anything on this thread

OR

2) Your candle recognition skills STINK.

Either way, you should NOT be trading until you resolve this as it will eventually result in your financial demise.

Hammers and Shooting Stars are the BASIC FOUNDATION for teaching this method. You cannot progress until you know these. This shows that you have not put in the hard work to spend hour after hour studying charts to identify and learn these.

Those candles you referred to as "hammers" were "hanging man" candles BUT they were also Inside Bars meaning something altogether different.

NZDUSD has reached a "critical" point and the last 3 candles tell us a powerful story.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,762
  • Oct 23, 2009 10:35am Oct 23, 2009 10:35am
Quoting riff
Hi Femfam,

"See beyond the candle".Demand rules from last swing 2/10/2009 on daily chart. The tug of war happened around 1.5000 psycho level but daily bars still printed biased over demand side. Besides our S&R lines shows ...? still far way?
The BOSS chart depicted where the next line is. IMHO. Blackeagle highlighted this trade before...hanging on Dr. Joe's.

See post #6394 and #6420

Thanks..
The BOSS chart depicted where the next line is. IMHO. Blackeagle highlighted this trade before...hanging on Dr. Joe's.

Correct, after 1.4880 was cleared, we have next SR line at 1.5400.

All good stuff!

1.5000 are HUGE psychological levels for both EURUSD and GBPUSD so it’s very important to watch and see what the reaction PRICE has to this level.

While it may or may not show up as SR, it is a trigger for the big boys and we want to see how the big boys play it so that we can ride their coat tails.

You can rest assured that there are automatic computer trades and triggers at this level with Hedge Funds, Banks and MMs. There will be both profit taking, new trade initiations and add on trades at this level – we want to see WHO IS IN CONTROL after all these trades are placed.

Don’t expect it all to happen at 1.5000. That number is just the median PRICE and their trades will be placed above and below it.

Don’t forget also, that these levels are where the big boys know that we know that they know that we know that they know! In other words, it is a level where they like to play their games – fakes, fades and of course, Stop Runs.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,763
  • Oct 23, 2009 10:51am Oct 23, 2009 10:51am
Quoting strat

Don’t forget also, that these levels are where the big boys know that we know that they know that we know that they know! In other words, it is a level where they like to play their games – fakes, fades and of course, Stop Runs.
Right click, save as. That's excellent information Strat. I'm really enjoying the read through on the path of learning. Thank you for it. I've gained even more knowledge on my path because of your work.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #6,764
  • Oct 23, 2009 11:12am Oct 23, 2009 11:12am
Quoting Lotuselanman
Alexandra,

I got in at 9093 with a stop at 9003 and target of 9189 which seemed to be at R level on my chart....
I will bet you don’t know it, Christopher, but you raise some very important points in your post.

To all and sundry, this may seem like a small step for mankind BUT, to Christopher, this is a HUGE step!

I set a limit trade for the TP so I came out overnight (I'm in UK).

Since PRICE took off again, some may think this is not a good move. To Christopher, this is VERY IMPORTANT – he has completed another successful profitable trade – this is all about CONFIDENCE BUILDING.

Where you exit is totally dependant on your trading style, experience and beliefs. Only YOU know which is suitable and acceptable to your style and personality.

As I am trading the smallest £/pip permitted on my SB account I didn't make a lot of dosh but a small profit and (more importantly at the moment for me) a successful trade.

The monetary amount, to Christopher has NO VALUE whatsoever. The VALUE he has is that he traded successfully in the face of his emotions. He has learned what he needs to do to CONTROL HIS EMOTIONS which is the biggest ingredient in our recipe for trading success. The trick now is to keep repeating this and gradually increase the GBP/pip value until your comfort level is reached.

I am only taking trades now which seem very high probability as I have found that a small profit is easily wiped out by just one bad loss! It is all in the cause of practicing my PA recognition skills together with careful MM.

This is PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE at its finest and SO HARD to do for younger traders.

My Golden Rule is only trade opportunities. If there are no opportunities, I have no trades. An opportunity is a trade that “stands out”, it is obvious, it is there for all to see. If you have to go looking for trades then you are more than likely, fabricating trades where, chances are, your risk is high and your probability for success is low.

I would much rather lie in wait for an opportunity than trade “iffy” trades where the odds and variables are not on my side.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,765
  • Oct 23, 2009 11:17am Oct 23, 2009 11:17am
Quoting mawbvw@hotma
Strat,

What a wonderful way to start the day!

Thank you so very much. And an equally wonderful day to you and all on this thread.
I believed that it would, but as an infant in a strange new world, I needed to confirm.

Now, with your permission - back to studying my new reality......

Regards,

Mike
Feel free to show us what you do and how you progress in the other markets - after all, its only PRICE.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,766
  • Oct 23, 2009 11:20am Oct 23, 2009 11:20am
Quoting Alexandra
Indeed....hmmm.....are we sure about this statement? There's nothing wrong with it, but are we suuuuure???
Well it all depends which trend each of you are referring to.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,767
  • Edited 12:19pm Oct 23, 2009 11:38am | Edited 12:19pm
Indeed, that is the basic point; one can argue for up, down, or sideways (consolidative/accumlative) on various timeframes. The subtleties of trend change can fill one page or 1000 depending on one's viewpoint; however, I think it's imporatant to say that the threat (promise) of trend change played a role in this week's trading - a subtle point that was noted a time or two by members on this thread (including one new one).

I do think next week's E/J could be interesting as that sharp ascent hits the big fat sideways line. Perhaps the close will give a clue on other pairs. USDJPY looks quite positive at the moment on a longer term basis -- and I'm sure you all know why!
  • #6,768
  • Oct 23, 2009 12:12pm Oct 23, 2009 12:12pm
Quoting soso
Hello Strat,

Reading your posts I keep seeing references to cycles and how you stay out of a potential short trade because cycles are UP. I didnt find any description of these cycles. Are they time cycles? Related to Gann in any way?

I ask because I spent 2 years studying Gann and any other possible "hidden" time cycles out there and while there is value in _some_ of Gann's writing I concluded that they didnt really help me become a better trader.

If you dont want to give away any leads it's really OK, I though I should ask anyway.

Thank...
Soso sent me this as a PM and since I receive other PMs on this subject, I asked him to post on the thread so that I could reply to all.

My cycles are all based on PRICE since the automatic charts of MT4 do not allow accurate time projections using linear charts (other than counting days).

I have also studied Gann and use some of his findings in my trades.

While I was heavily influenced by Dow, Gann and Elliott in my early trading career, I realised PRICE was more important than anything and focused on reading and understanding that more than anything else.

As far as I am concerned, cycles and momentum are secondary to PRICE. PRICE does not obey cycles, only the law of supply and demand. My reading of cycles has caused me to lose many trades whereas if I had just focused on PRICE, I would have profited.

The application of cycles is in direct conflict with my Dr. Joe strategy. NZDUSD is an example where my Dr. Joe strategy is FAR MORE IMPORTANT than any fancy cycles.

Just like indicators, cycles do not like trending prices or where the calculated differentials remain a constant value. By their very nature, cycles go up and down with different frequencies and amplitudes in some manner or other dictated by either harmonic or non – harmonic motion. PRICES don’t HAVE to do ANYTHING.

When our friend cosmo made his now infamous GBPJPY short call, my first reaction was to check indicators and sure enough, the usual suspects were calling a top. Since I don’t have cycles running on my trading charts, I put them on GBPJPY and my short term cycles were showing a cycle top, my longer term were not.

This causes HUGE CONFLICT in my simple mind: My technical side is telling me its over while my logical, common sense, reasoning side is telling me to follow PRICE.

I can do without this conflict as it cause me stress and unbalance.

My technical drive or personality whatever it is, is always looking for a challenge which is why I like to get into indicator discussions. However, I realized a long time ago that my technical “side” is not what makes a profit – it is far inferior to my PRICE following decision making side. I should have paid more attention to Dr. Joe when he told me he dropped ALL technical aspects in favour of just following PRICE.

While I will still “mess about” with momentum, cycles and other formulae driven technical “stuff” for amusement, my trading decision making will ALWAYS be based on PASR.

So, my bottom line is, I have proved for myself that the technicals are INFERIOR to PRICE and I will continue to learn more about PRICE and how it behaves than any derivative of PRICE.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,769
  • Oct 23, 2009 2:06pm Oct 23, 2009 2:06pm
Quoting Alexandra
Indeed, that is the basic point; one can argue for up, down, or sideways (consolidative/accumlative) on various timeframes. The subtleties of trend change can fill one page or 1000 depending on one's viewpoint; however, I think it's imporatant to say that the threat (promise) of trend change played a role in this week's trading - a subtle point that was noted a time or two by members on this thread (including one new one).

I do think next week's E/J could be interesting as that sharp ascent hits the big fat sideways line. Perhaps the close will...
Hi Alexandrahttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

The attached chart shows the trend I am talking about, this is the weekly chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjay weekly.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #6,770
  • Oct 23, 2009 2:13pm Oct 23, 2009 2:13pm
Quoting strat
Well it all depends which trend each of you are referring to.
Hi Strat

Here is the chart is the chart and the trend I am referring to. I will enter the trade on PA going in the direction of the thick purple line and any other trade toward the line I will just observe.

Jideck http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy daily.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #6,771
  • Oct 23, 2009 3:14pm Oct 23, 2009 3:14pm
Quoting 30XTCi
I wonder if Naws would mind sharing with us any subtle changes in his 'between the ears' process while taking his first few live trades?
I realise the word 'subtle' is a slight understatement, as I am sure he will discover.

Emotions, you gotta love this game!

Roy
Yea I don't mind sharing if you guys are interested

Ill post how it goes after I get some trades in
  • #6,772
  • Oct 23, 2009 3:17pm Oct 23, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting Strat
...
However, I realized a long time ago that my technical “side” is not what makes a profit – it is far inferior to my PRICE following decision making side. I should have paid more attention to Dr. Joe when he told me he dropped ALL technical aspects in favour of just following PRICE.

While I will still “mess about” with momentum, cycles and other formulae driven technical “stuff” for amusement, my trading decision making will ALWAYS be based on PASR.

So, my bottom line is, I have proved for myself that the technicals are INFERIOR to PRICE and I will continue to learn more about PRICE and how it behaves than any derivative of PRICE.
Point taken Strat! Thank you for the detailed description of your experiences, I can say I am relieved now feeling the same way.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,773
  • Oct 23, 2009 3:27pm Oct 23, 2009 3:27pm
BOSS.
Trend obviously down, last week bullish followed by this week also bullish but facing strong rejection at the end.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad_weekly.png Size: 21 KB


Worker.
A+ BEOB at confluence of Weekly SR + Bearish DSRI. Will put a SELL order tomorrow or Sunday below its low.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad_daily.png Size: 24 KB



P.S. Been thinking which GBP pair to trade and this one looks best to me. GBPUSD also looks good, HUGE BEOB on Worker but even more important is leaving us a HUGE SS on BOSS. The only thing that I considered GBPCAD in a better position to short than GBPUSD is that GBPUSD Daily trend is still UP (although BOSS is down) and a strong Weekly SR pretty close at 1.62. Any other opinions?
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,774
  • Oct 23, 2009 4:12pm Oct 23, 2009 4:12pm
Did BabaG OD on pasta or something else Italiano? What happened to him?
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #6,775
  • Oct 23, 2009 4:33pm Oct 23, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Did BabaG OD on pasta or something else Italiano? What happened to him?
he's trying to charge money for going down Strat's path....I think he's on the shit list now
  • #6,776
  • Edited 5:06pm Oct 23, 2009 4:54pm | Edited 5:06pm
Quoting soso
BOSS.
Trend obviously down, last week bullish followed by this week also bullish but facing strong rejection at the end.

Attachment

Worker.
A+ BEOB at confluence of Weekly SR + Bearish DSRI. Will put a SELL order tomorrow or Sunday below its low.

Attachment


P.S. Been thinking which GBP pair to trade and this one looks best to me. GBPUSD also looks good, HUGE BEOB on Worker but even more important is leaving us a HUGE SS on BOSS. The only thing that I considered GBPCAD in a better position to short than...
All the GBP pairs are weak across the board but GBPUSD is a 400+ SL on my data and way too big a BEOB to trade off.

Be careful though, especially with GBPCAD as this last wave up looks more like an Impulse Wave to me rather than a Corrective Wave - but I'm no EW expert.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,777
  • Oct 23, 2009 5:29pm Oct 23, 2009 5:29pm
A little something to bear in mind when considering shorting Sterling is today's drop was the result of Q3 GDP predictions by the ONS (Office of National Statistics), which posted a sixth consecutive quarter of contraction in the British economy, making our recession the worst since records began (1955).

However, many people believe the ONS have understimated September's figures and will revise their figure upward, either showing neutral growth or a small increase, which would paint a very different picture indeed.

Cable does looking tempting on the weekly chart however.

(sorry for the funnymentals Strat)
  • #6,778
  • Edited 8:46pm Oct 23, 2009 6:15pm | Edited 8:46pm
Quoting Jideck
Hi Strat

Here is the chart is the chart and the trend I am referring to. I will enter the trade on PA going in the direction of the thick purple line and any other trade toward the line I will just observe.

Jideck http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Hmmmmm...Again. that makes a market.

Okay in that you have a view and you will await supporting PA at higher levels. I cannot argue with that aspect, at least. Is it a misread?....well....hmmm....time will tell, but a gander at the longer term charts does not support an immediate sell.
  • #6,779
  • Oct 23, 2009 9:22pm Oct 23, 2009 9:22pm
Quoting Alexandra
Hmmmmm...again. that makes a market.

Okay in that you have a view and you will await suupporting PA at higher levels. I cannot argue with that aspect, at least. Is it a misread?....well....hmmm....time will tell, but a gander at the longer term charts does not support an immediate sell.
Hi Alexandra http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I agree with you with the longer term charts, that's why I am observing at this moment to see whether the double bottom is real.
Jideck
  • #6,780
  • Oct 23, 2009 11:25pm Oct 23, 2009 11:25pm
Quoting soso
Hello Strat,

Reading your posts I keep seeing references to cycles and how you stay out of a potential short trade because cycles are UP. I didnt find any description of these cycles. Are they time cycles? Related to Gann in any way?

I ask because I spent 2 years studying Gann and any other possible "hidden" time cycles out there and while there is value in _some_ of Gann's writing I concluded that they didnt really help me become a better trader.

Thank you!
-soso
I traveled that road too, as you know, Soso. 20/20 hindsight says it would have been better for me to become proficient at price action and then investigate Gann. As you say, there is some value there.
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