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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #46,701
  • Oct 23, 2009 4:49am Oct 23, 2009 4:49am
Confluence perhaps?

- 62 fib retracement on current downtrend coincide (to the pip) with monthly pivot and round number 1.6700
(note however, that the downtrend is part of a bigger move which can be seen on weekly. Not sure if fib from trends that long ago should be considered)
- divergence on RSI and MACD
- hanging man (bull exhaustion candlestick pattern), which happens to be a double high (can be considered inside bar I guess)

A touch trade would have been nice here I suppose? Awaiting guidance from the touch experts.
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  • #46,702
  • Oct 23, 2009 4:53am Oct 23, 2009 4:53am
well if anyone had the balls to sell that as a "touch trade" they will be laughing and dancing while i am crying
  • #46,703
  • Oct 23, 2009 4:54am Oct 23, 2009 4:54am
Quoting benji533
Yea, common Mike!

This is for you!
This can be a good example how an exit signal, can be also an entry to the opposite direction.

I DIDN'T plaid that pin short...not sure why....but it could be a great trade.
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  • #46,704
  • Oct 23, 2009 5:22am Oct 23, 2009 5:22am
By the way i had a loss by trying to enter another blind touch to our box on GBPSEK. Never-mind.
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  • #46,705
  • Oct 23, 2009 5:33am Oct 23, 2009 5:33am
A thought on how to play these high momentum moves...
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  • #46,706
  • Oct 23, 2009 5:42am Oct 23, 2009 5:42am
Quoting supermatt
crazy people selling due to some stupid news was below consensus lol are these bars even tradeable? seems like huge moves in 1 bar to be game enough to get into it after such big drops?
i can sense some people doing touch trades here and going long
There were comments about the foreign exchange market getting out of hand too.

Those bars are harder to trade. ...The way I like to enter at least. They might bring a high probability entry later, maybe.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #46,707
  • Oct 23, 2009 5:47am Oct 23, 2009 5:47am
Quoting bundyraider
I looked at that bar yesterday too Mikali....
Hi bundyraider,
Thanks for taking the time to provide your analysis on the trade. Your summary was fantastic....considerably better then the summary of the feedback I received and documented on my FF journal.

I also found great value on your assessment of the bullish bar and viewpoint on S/R.

With thanks,
Mikali
  • #46,708
  • Oct 23, 2009 7:08am Oct 23, 2009 7:08am
Quoting benem
Hallo Mikali.....a little bit on late but i want to partecipate to this dicussion too

I think that when we want to play a PA,the better thing is to look on a higher time frame ,in the case of the Eur/cad look on the weekly, and try to follow the trend.If up look on my weekly eur/cad chart you'll see how the price made a hugly pin last week.....just above the trend line and MA conlfuence.
For me that's a clear sign of strength.

Very easy to say this after the fact of course....but i hope next time i look at the chart i'll make the same...
Hi benem,
Thanks for providing your view on the trade and analysis!! I concur, its necessary to look at the higher time frames for hints on trend and PA that may tip off what price may do. Regrettably, it's something I don't always do but I'm working on correcting that and making it a part of my trade plan.

In the case of the EURCAD trade, I did look at the weekly and monthly charts and deduced price was trending downwards. On the weekly chart, from its peek in October 2008, the ensuing swing highs have been lower highs and lower lows. Perhaps others can comment on whether my analysis is correct after all I'm just starting out. I did not view the prior weeks bar (on your chart example) as a PB a I look for a bar with smaller body and longer nose (this is just my preference).

I did find interesting the confluence of the ma and trend line on your chart and how it hinted that price might want to go higher. I'm still not up to speed on the use of diagonal trend lines and it's implication or effects on price (something else I need to study up on).

Once again thanks for your analysis!! It's always valuable to see how other traders interpret the information they see on their charts.

With thanks,
Mikali
  • #46,709
  • Oct 23, 2009 7:23am Oct 23, 2009 7:23am
You're welcome Mikali......listen to different opinion is the way to grow up.....not only in a trading environment......
That's valid for me too.....


Quoting Mikali
Hi benem,

Thanks for providing your view on the trade and analysis!! I concur, its necessary to look at the higher time frames for hints on trend and PA that may tip off what price may do. Regrettably, it's something I don't always do but I'm working on correcting that and making it a part of my trade plan.

In the case of the EURCAD trade, I did look at the weekly and monthly charts and deduced price was trending downwards. On the weekly chart, from its peek in October 2008, the ensuing swing highs have been lower highs and lower lows. Perhaps...
Patience is essential
  • #46,710
  • Oct 23, 2009 8:10am Oct 23, 2009 8:10am
just triggered my daily resistance trade.currently +20.why play every day when you can wait for something like this?
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  • #46,711
  • Oct 23, 2009 8:18am Oct 23, 2009 8:18am
Hi Folks,
Did anyone take a look at the USDZAR bearish PB on the daily chart?
Late last night I placed a pending sell stop order @ 7.3733 SL @ 7.5429 TP1 @ 7.2916 and TP2 @ 7.2276.

Why I Placed the Trade:
The market is presently trending downwards which supports the bearish PB price action. The PB itself has a small body and a long nose that protrudes above the recent price bars giving it some space. I also noted there was confluence of a PPZ and 23 Fibs's.

Would anyone like to comment or offer some feedback or analysis.

With thanks,
Mikali
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  • #46,712
  • Oct 23, 2009 8:44am Oct 23, 2009 8:44am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
probably this is what the below thread referrs to

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...05&postcount=1

no idea how to trade this. but, very lucrative



Quoting pipmyride
So what is THIS called ??
  • #46,713
  • Oct 23, 2009 8:47am Oct 23, 2009 8:47am
I can't help but keep starring at the EURUSD daily divergence. It must play out at some point - looking for a perfect location and a PA to short!
Plan The Trade - Trade The Plan
  • #46,714
  • Oct 23, 2009 9:22am Oct 23, 2009 9:22am
Quoting Mikali
Hi Folks,
Did anyone take a look at the USDZAR bearish PB on the daily chart?
Late last night I placed a pending sell stop order @ 7.3733 SL @ 7.5429 TP1 @ 7.2916 and TP2 @ 7.2276.

Why I Placed the Trade:
The market is presently trending downwards which supports the bearish PB price action. The PB itself has a small body and a long nose that protrudes above the recent price bars giving it some space. I also noted there was confluence of a PPZ and 23 Fibs's.

Would anyone like to comment or offer some feedback or analysis.

With thanks,
Mikali...
EDIT: Sorry, didn't see it was a sell stop order.
  • #46,715
  • Oct 23, 2009 9:32am Oct 23, 2009 9:32am
Hello everyone, I have been through this thread several times and had joined the PF for several months before some life events put the brakes on trading for some time a year or so back.

I have now been back at it and have been fortunate to break even for nine months (fortunate I say because I blew through a few accounts years ago) and just in the last six to eight months I have been trading positive. Mind you, I have traded (off and on) for 10 years so I am not an overnight success and still don't consider myself an accomplished trader. It is encouraging to finally see positive account growth after break-even, but until I have done if for two years straight I am hesitant to feel like I am there.

Anyway, if anyone is interested (sorry about the novel) in what specific changes occured for me from going break-even to positive (finally) I would be glad to hopefully offer some advice/input.

I still make mistakes and just made one yesterday, so I hope this provides a little lesson on not forcing trades (still working on this). Mike has touched on this before as well as others, and I have to say for his age Mike's frame of mind and psychology about trading are second to none...this guy really impresses me.

Anyway, I took a trade to play the break of the DBH on Cable straight into a pivot/heavy resistance. The weekly BEOVB had me long on this pair (as well as the daily BEOVB), but regardless I played this straight into resistance. I am not overly upset I took the trade, more upset that I didn't use my initial stop loss. I had a very small stop loss due to that resistance but moved it to below the daily bar after second thought. I normally find, whether it is my subconcious or just screen time experience, altering my initial decision is the wrong decision. Since I played the break of the inside bar at a pivot on Eur/Gbp and I am still in the Loonie trade from a retrace buy off of the BEOVB, I am fortunately still up nicely for the week.

Regardless, I have found with me at least sometimes growing your account at a faster rate is not so much about taking more trades, but reducing the riskier less appealing set-ups. Treat your capital like it deserves to be treated. I think many times in the past I treated my capital like the Lions treat their quarterbacks.........throw it out there and let whatever carnage/danger is there have its way!!! I encourage all of you to become very defensive and selfish when it comes to your trading capital. I still continue to learn more from unsuccessful trades than winners, though most forums tend to have people only boast of the ones that worked. Personally, I seem to get more from those of mine that didn't work. Food for thought!

I think there are probably many out there that are at break-even or close and maybe think they won't transition to the "other side". I hope I can help some people in some small way do just that.

I personally thank James and everyone here for their knowledge, as I have honestly been in lurk mode for a long time. I guess I felt that until I could trade profitably why should I tell anyone anything. Again, sorry about the novel, I am actually a pretty quiet guy...ha ha.


Nathan
  • #46,716
  • Oct 23, 2009 10:39am Oct 23, 2009 10:39am
Quoting pipmyride
So what is THIS called ??
That is probably called mass exit. Look at the attached picture
Attached Image


Avoid the news like the plaque would have a significant meaning here. On my charts price hasn't touch the 1.7000 level ??? strange, anyway.
Size of the bar tells me it was big order flow behind it, so big boys got ahead themselves in Cable hoping the worst is over and the sunny days come back. But they didn't I'm afraid. If this closes like now we will have a huge BEOB on daily and pin on weekly. Then question arises: was it again a profit taking on news plus Friday effect or it's reverse and going back to downtrend. I wonder what experienced traders can pull out of this picture ?
  • #46,717
  • Oct 23, 2009 10:44am Oct 23, 2009 10:44am
In my opinion, the daily BEOVB and possible weekly pin are more than Friday profit taking. I will be playing a retrace if there is one or a break of the pin.

Just my 2 cents.....
  • #46,718
  • Oct 23, 2009 11:49am Oct 23, 2009 11:49am
there is a very wealthy poster here that i will let remain anonymous that gave up his british citizenship for these reasons.

now lives in the carribean and pays virtually no tax.

as he puts it.

"my country left me long before i left it"

Quoting o990l6mh
Haha! You think that's something?

Welcome to Sweden and enjoy 50% !!!

Great post. I agree 100%. You're a wise man Jim.
  • #46,719
  • Oct 23, 2009 12:00pm Oct 23, 2009 12:00pm
Quoting pakiestra
That is probably called mass exit. Look at the attached picture
Attachment

Avoid the news like the plaque would have a significant meaning here. On my charts price hasn't touch the 1.7000 level ??? strange, anyway.
Size of the bar tells me it was big order flow behind it, so big boys got ahead themselves in Cable hoping the worst is over and the sunny days come back. But they didn't I'm afraid. If this closes like now we will have a huge BEOB on daily and pin on weekly. Then question arises: was it again a profit taking...
Hey Pakiestra,
I'm wondering exactly the same thing...repetition of last friday when we had good setup except 1 BUT - it was friday. Weekly pin with daily BEOB looks attractive, however we have to get a solid confirmation from PA on monday that it actually will go down. Gotta stick to the rules, buddy
I'm curious as well what seniors will say.
  • #46,720
  • Oct 23, 2009 12:09pm Oct 23, 2009 12:09pm
Quoting dobe_r_man

Regardless, I have found with me at least sometimes growing your account at a faster rate is not so much about taking more trades, but reducing the riskier less appealing set-ups. Treat your capital like it deserves to be treated. I think many times in the past I treated my capital like the Lions treat their quarterbacks.........throw it out there and let whatever carnage/danger is there have its way!!! I encourage all of you to become very defensive and selfish when it comes to your trading capital.

Nathan
Hey Nathan don't be so quiet anymore! Great post
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