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Silent Service Method

  • #5,521
  • Oct 22, 2009 9:05am Oct 22, 2009 9:05am
Quoting stefx
Hi.

It's important to find the right place for the stop, not too close and not too far. It's no big thing to place a stop which isn't hit if you don't intend to be profitable, just put it far enough away. To be honest you placed the stop correctly to 1 pip, unfortunately to the wrong side but 1 pip. This is IMHO a positive sign for finding areas that matter, that you don't give your earned 375 pips enough respect is a negative sign. Don't blame you on a winner because you didn't get all the possible pips.

The technical explanation of what I would...
Stefan, thank you so much for your time and consideration on this. I am going to print out your chart to help in the future. I really respect your patience and trading style. Good stuff!
  • #5,522
  • Oct 22, 2009 9:12am Oct 22, 2009 9:12am
Closed out Gold trade.....chart below:
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  • #5,523
  • Oct 22, 2009 9:33am Oct 22, 2009 9:33am
Quoting clockwork71
Closed out Gold trade.....chart below:
Hi Chris.

Congrats on this, in the future maybe we meet us on this timeframe again, yet it's too noisy for me to keep clear vision.

Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #5,524
  • Oct 22, 2009 9:47am Oct 22, 2009 9:47am
Quoting stefx
Hi Chris.

Congrats on this, in the future maybe we meet us on this timeframe again, yet it's too noisy for me to keep clear vision.

Stefan.

I drilled down. The thing about commods and especially gold.....it tends to trend real well.....so the thinking is buy, and don't bother selling yet. The USD has been getting beat up, so it only makes sense to be long gold.

None the less, I will post more in the future. I wish I would have posted my gap trade on corn yesterday.....but had some rooms I had to spray out yesterday, so I took my trade, move stops up and left for work.

Sometimes life gets in the way.....
  • #5,525
  • Oct 22, 2009 2:01pm Oct 22, 2009 2:01pm
A couple of charts on my thoughts about the EUR/USD
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  • #5,526
  • Oct 22, 2009 9:34pm Oct 22, 2009 9:34pm
Yesterday, I took a trade going long December Corn. The quick story I am going to tell you should sound familiar to many of you.

I got a signal to go long, and took it. I bought one contract, and it started to take off right away. Corn futures are worth $12.50 for every tick. (1/4 cent) Basically, I placed my trade, put a stop loss on, and walked down the hallway to brush my teeth, because I had a few things I wanted to go do.

When I came back, I was already up about 4 points. (16 ticks) That's $200 in less than 5 minutes. Needless to say, I was happy at that moment in time! I had about another 5-10 minutes before it was time to leave. I watched this trade continue to climb, and at this point I was up about 6 points. (We are now talking $400) What do you think happened next? What did I do? Better yet, what would you have done?

I placed my stop loss at the $300 mark. (Actually, it was something like $296 after transaction fees) I had places to go.....I had to go buy crickets to feed the Chinese Water Dragons my son has. So the hell with it.....I set a stop at what I thought would be a nice gain, and left it at that.

When I got back, I saw that my stop got hit. If I had only left that stop alone or at b/e, I would have been up $450 when I got back. I cannot tell you how many times I bitched and moaned about that exact thing. I left $150 on the table.

Here's my take on it: "So the hell what?"

The point is that I made money, and that's the name of the game. If I want to worry about every tick of the market that could possibly fall into my account, then I will never be able to leave the computer and have a life. Once I had my stop loss placed, there was nothing else to do. In fact, it was easier this time because I was in profit. I gave it a little room to move, and if it did - that would have been great, but at the end of the day - I already had done my job.

The beauty of this was I got to go to the pet store with my little boy, who loves that trip, and had no worries. Stress-free trading. Some people would choose to focus on the "negative" part of leaving the other $150 on the table.....but not me. I gave the trade a chance. I could have just as easily taken profits at $400 or so.....only to come home and see I could have had $600.

I made the decision a long time ago when going with the trend - I will let the market decide my exit. It take the pressure and work out of my hands. It's about leverage....all types. Mental leverage, monetary leverage, time leverage, etc.

Just a random thought. I am sure there might have been a lesson in there somewhere......

Chris
  • #5,527
  • Oct 23, 2009 12:27am Oct 23, 2009 12:27am
i guess this pair is about to make a decision soon...(bullish is more likely considering the shape of triangle)
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  • #5,528
  • Oct 23, 2009 1:47am Oct 23, 2009 1:47am
Congrats Chris, whenever i read your analysis and explanations, you always amaze me at how easy all this stuff looks.

Currently having a bad week (thank God it is about to end). Took three trades this week, two had my SL hit and one is currently at a loss since Wednesday.......BUT NO WORRIES....i noted i strayed and entered these trades off the 4-hr and am paying the price. I should have just stuck to the Daily where i was doing very well...........Lesson learnt.

Can someone recommend a MT4 Broker with Forex, Stocks etc? Not FXPro. Thinking of changing to have a wider trading range.

Cheers guys/galz

Quoting clockwork71
Yesterday, I took a trade going long December Corn. The quick story I am going to tell you should sound familiar to many of you.

I got a signal to go long, and took it. I bought one contract, and it started to take off right away. Corn futures are worth $12.50 for every tick. (1/4 cent) Basically, I placed my trade, put a stop loss on, and walked down the hallway to brush my teeth, because I had a few things I wanted to go do.

When I came back, I was already up about 4 points. (16 ticks) That's $200 in less than 5 minutes. Needless to say,...
  • #5,529
  • Oct 23, 2009 3:35am Oct 23, 2009 3:35am
Week has been bad for me......i have paid the price dearly.......
Three losing trades i one week...............well life goes on.........

Nice weekend guys/galz

Quoting Danku
Congrats Chris, whenever i read your analysis and explanations, you always amaze me at how easy all this stuff looks.

Currently having a bad week (thank God it is about to end). Took three trades this week, two had my SL hit and one is currently at a loss since Wednesday.......BUT NO WORRIES....i noted i strayed and entered these trades off the 4-hr and am paying the price. I should have just stuck to the Daily where i was doing very well...........Lesson learnt.

Can someone recommend a MT4 Broker with Forex, Stocks etc? Not FXPro. Thinking...
  • #5,530
  • Oct 23, 2009 3:42am Oct 23, 2009 3:42am
Quoting Danku
Can someone recommend a MT4 Broker with Forex, Stocks etc? Not FXPro. Thinking of changing to have a wider trading range.

Cheers guys/galz
I'm going to try out Alpari UK. I just need to send a couple of documents before I can start trading.
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #5,531
  • Oct 23, 2009 6:26am Oct 23, 2009 6:26am
Quoting Noloqy
I'm going to try out Alpari UK. I just need to send a couple of documents before I can start trading.

I have never used this broker, but for what it's worth.....people seem to like them.

Chris
  • #5,532
  • Oct 23, 2009 7:50am Oct 23, 2009 7:50am
Quoting Danku
Can someone recommend a MT4 Broker with Forex, Stocks etc? Not FXPro. Thinking of changing to have a wider trading range.
Not going to recommend one way or the other, but I will say that I use MB Trading for both Stocks & Forex. They have just come out with a true ECN environment using MT4 and it works like a charm. They offer micro-lots, mini-lots, and full lots. It's not a *true* all-in-one solution though because the stock platform/account is separate from the FX account. If you're looking for an all-in-one solution, i think the only way to get that from a US broker is Interactive Brokers (who i have also used) but their forex accounts are less flexible. If you are non-US based, I wouldn't know which brokers to recommend.

Anyway -- Hasn't been my best week either. Got run over last night by the GBP economic numbers while i was sleeping - A totally careless mistake on my part to have as much GBP exposure as I had right before a major economic release...Live & Learn. The good news from the GBP experience is that the GBP seems to be making a very interesting weekly PB that might warrant a trade...
  • #5,533
  • Edited 11:42am Oct 23, 2009 11:19am | Edited 11:42am
a perfect Pin Bar forming on gbpusd. this is also a 38.2 fib area...CW, will you go short on this or is there anything else you would consider before shorting this one?

Thanks
  • #5,534
  • Oct 23, 2009 11:20am Oct 23, 2009 11:20am
Quoting InfinitySL
Not going to recommend one way or the other, but I will say that I use MB Trading for both Stocks & Forex....

Yeah I am watching GBP as well. It could either make an interesting continuation pinbar on the weekly......or I might look for a retrace of this knee jerk reaction and short there......
  • #5,535
  • Oct 23, 2009 2:25pm Oct 23, 2009 2:25pm
<div><object width="512" height="322"><param name="movie" value="http://d.yimg.com/static.video.yahoo.com/yep/YV_YEP.swf?ver=2.2.46" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="AllowScriptAccess" VALUE="always" /><param name="bgcolor" value="#000000" /><param name="flashVars" value="id=16249727&vid=6261550&lang=en-us&intl=us&thumbUrl=http%3A//l.yimg.com/a/i/us/sch/cn/defaults/default_158x111.gif&embed=1" /><embed src="http://d.yimg.com/static.video.yahoo.com/yep/YV_YEP.swf?ver=2.2.46" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="512" height="322" allowFullScreen="true" AllowScriptAccess="always" bgcolor="#000000" flashVars="id=16249727&vid=6261550&lang=en-us&intl=us&thumbUrl=http%3A//l.yimg.com/a/i/us/sch/cn/defaults/default_158x111.gif&embed=1" ></embed></object><br /><a href="http://video.yahoo.com/watch/6261550/16249727">SMU Freshman hits 95-yard Soccer Goal</a> @ <a href="http://video.yahoo.com" >Yahoo! Video</a></div>

Thought the Europeans would like this great example of US Soccer......ugh.
  • #5,536
  • Oct 23, 2009 2:38pm Oct 23, 2009 2:38pm
Quoting clockwork71
Thought the Europeans would like this great example of US Soccer......ugh.
LOL
That goalie should have known it was gonna bounce hard. He just stood there waiting for it.
Nice shot though!!
I could have been there as SMU is about 10 min from my job.
  • #5,537
  • Oct 23, 2009 5:25pm Oct 23, 2009 5:25pm
I just wanted to share with you guys that CNBC has a new show called "Trading the Globe". For those of you that are somewhat new to the idea of trading anything not US-centric, this show seems like a good primer. (I am watching it right now, it's first airing.) It's on Friday nights @8 pm NY time.

Good bit tonight on Turkey.....one of the true future powerhouses that nobody pays attention to.

Chris

PS - It seems to be a serious program, not so cheesy as the midday stuff you see on that network.
  • #5,538
  • Oct 23, 2009 11:29pm Oct 23, 2009 11:29pm
Quoting TheFutureAce
a perfect Pin Bar forming on gbpusd. this is also a 38.2 fib area...CW, will you go short on this or is there anything else you would consider before shorting this one?

Thanks
can anybody be generous enough to let me if my observations on gbpusd are correct?

Thanks
  • #5,539
  • Oct 23, 2009 11:39pm Oct 23, 2009 11:39pm
Quoting TheFutureAce
can anybody be generous enough to let me if my observations on gbpusd are correct?

Thanks

You won't know if your observations are correct unless you take the trade.

I am not particularly thrilled about a 350 pip stop, meaning I need a 700 pip gain just to get a respectable 1:2 RR.

I want to short the pound so bad I can taste it, but don't know exactly how I want to go about it.

I know I can size my position to make the stop comfortable, but do I really expect price to go in my favor 350 pips(1:1RR)? .....700(1:2)....1050(1:3).....1400(1:4)?

I'm having difficulty with this one.
  • #5,540
  • Oct 24, 2009 2:10am Oct 24, 2009 2:10am
I already placed my sell stop at the break of the bearish pin. But not completely convinced.

The PIN BAR itself is beautiful: nice shape, long nose, touch of 1.67 and rejection. If you zoom on the daily there is also a huge BEOB at a (minor?) swing high + hidden divergence (correct?).

BUT the trend is not clear, on the daily the pair is quite choppy; on the weekly we had a very huge move down from August 2008 to March 2009 and then a pullback (surely not strong as the previous downward movement).

Looking at the fundamentals, UK is still in recession and this could push the sterling lower.

In conclusion, i still don't know what to do: cancel this order or not? Maybe clockwork is right: it could be wise to wait a retrace of this knee jerk reaction on Friday and then go short if we'll have a PA signal.

EDIT: i placed my SL at the level of the left eye of weekly pin.
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