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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #541
  • Nov 21, 2005 7:38am Nov 21, 2005 7:38am
FX that's a great entry trigger you have there.http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon14.gif
Well done.
What is your exit target, or are you following this down and locking in proffits with the sl.

Cheers,

Ron
  • #542
  • Nov 23, 2005 11:56am Nov 23, 2005 11:56am
Hi Jim, hope you guys not stressing too much re the PF. Anyway, hope you still checking this thread, 'cos here's a puzzle. Would this be regarded as a Pin Bar. Would it be feasible to use it to open a trade / get direction? Looking at the last three complete bars, we've got higher highs and lower lows. Any thoughts?

Thanx
Habeeb

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...tid=2391&stc=1
Attached Image
Keeping it Simple
  • #543
  • Nov 24, 2005 12:16am Nov 24, 2005 12:16am
Habeeb, check the Daily out for a better looking Pin.
I have gone long at 118.78 & stop is nearly at BE.
PIN has gone against Major Trend and we then take a position with the Major.
I thought this would also give it a better chance of coming off.

All the Best,

Ron.
  • #544
  • Nov 24, 2005 1:12am Nov 24, 2005 1:12am
Quoting habeeb
Hi Jim, hope you guys not stressing too much re the PF. Anyway, hope you still checking this thread, 'cos here's a puzzle. Would this be regarded as a Pin Bar. Would it be feasible to use it to open a trade / get direction? Looking at the last three complete bars, we've got higher highs and lower lows. Any thoughts?

Thanx
Habeeb

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...tid=2391&stc=1
if the eyes are always secondary to me. if its a good pin and its in a good place i will trade them. as i have mentioned i have gravitated toward playing these bars with buy and sell stops just beyond the pin. in this case the buy stop would have been triggered and you would be slightly down on the position. i would have set my initial stop below the pin or just below the left eye. i want to take this chance to speak on a particular subject. i have noticed more and more people posting that have come out of the futures markets, many from the mini sp and dow. the quickest way for a futures trader to get killed in the forex market is to be ignorant of or not aware of the difference between an 8 hour market and a 24 hour market. the biggest obstacle i have faced in trading forex is continuing to think like a futures trader. a one day move in forex will take 2 or 3 days for a similar move in say the mini dow. for years i have played the sp with great success. the day lasts 8 hours and i know to take my profit because, 1. the day does not last long and 2. with the way the world is i am not staying in overnight. with forex you dont have to worry about overnight moves and if you monitor your positions you can stay in any length of time you want. my problem has been that where i naturally would take a profit i now hang on looking for more. the result has been the 24 hour problem. i get stopped out at BE or at a loss. this is an ongoing learning process for me. any trader just coming out of the futures markets would be well served to take what i am saying here seriously. for those of you who have never traded anything but forex i think you have an advantage over futures traders. you are not programmed to think like they do. you already know that these markets can move fast and hard at anytime. you know that a 30 or 40 pip profit can dissapear in 2 or 3 minutes overnight. anyway i just wanted to bring it up, perhaps more for my own contemplation than anything else. if you look at any daily chart for pin bars you will notice that they do work a majority of the time. what i mean by work is you will get 30 to 50 pips, sometimes more but they will turn on you quick. compare the daily bars for the mini sp to the daily bars of any currency pair. you will see the difference in two seconds. the difference is directly tied to the time difference, 8 hours versus 24. a daily bar in forex will stagger the previous bar where in a futures market you will see sustained moves or a stacking effect by the daily bars. it will be a serious problem for many futures traders who dont recognize it and the reason for it. i know several succesful futures traders who just cant get a feel for forex because of trading an 8 hour market for so long. i know it has been tough for me also. the profits stare me in the face and i cant pull the trigger. when i am staring at a 4 or 5 hundred dollar profit at 2 in the afternoon in the mini dow i know its time to take my money and wait for the open tomorrow. with forex it never ends or at least not until friday. its a mind game folks, always has been and always will be. food for thought. happy thanksgiving to everyone whether you observe it or not. jim
  • #545
  • Nov 24, 2005 1:27am Nov 24, 2005 1:27am
Thanx Jim
Keeping it Simple
  • #546
  • Nov 24, 2005 9:24am Nov 24, 2005 9:24am
Quoting james16
if the eyes are always secondary to me. if its a good pin and its in a good place i will trade them. as i have mentioned i have gravitated toward playing these bars with buy and sell stops just beyond the pin. in this case the buy stop would have been triggered and you would be slightly down on the position. i would have set my initial stop below the pin or just below the left eye. i want to take this chance to speak on a particular subject. i have noticed more and more people posting that have come out of the futures markets, many from the mini sp and dow. the quickest way for a futures trader to get killed in the forex market is to be ignorant of or not aware of the difference between an 8 hour market and a 24 hour market. the biggest obstacle i have faced in trading forex is continuing to think like a futures trader. a one day move in forex will take 2 or 3 days for a similar move in say the mini dow. for years i have played the sp with great success. the day lasts 8 hours and i know to take my profit because, 1. the day does not last long and 2. with the way the world is i am not staying in overnight. with forex you dont have to worry about overnight moves and if you monitor your positions you can stay in any length of time you want. my problem has been that where i naturally would take a profit i now hang on looking for more. the result has been the 24 hour problem. i get stopped out at BE or at a loss. this is an ongoing learning process for me. any trader just coming out of the futures markets would be well served to take what i am saying here seriously. for those of you who have never traded anything but forex i think you have an advantage over futures traders. you are not programmed to think like they do. you already know that these markets can move fast and hard at anytime. you know that a 30 or 40 pip profit can dissapear in 2 or 3 minutes overnight. anyway i just wanted to bring it up, perhaps more for my own contemplation than anything else. if you look at any daily chart for pin bars you will notice that they do work a majority of the time. what i mean by work is you will get 30 to 50 pips, sometimes more but they will turn on you quick. compare the daily bars for the mini sp to the daily bars of any currency pair. you will see the difference in two seconds. the difference is directly tied to the time difference, 8 hours versus 24. a daily bar in forex will stagger the previous bar where in a futures market you will see sustained moves or a stacking effect by the daily bars. it will be a serious problem for many futures traders who dont recognize it and the reason for it. i know several succesful futures traders who just cant get a feel for forex because of trading an 8 hour market for so long. i know it has been tough for me also. the profits stare me in the face and i cant pull the trigger. when i am staring at a 4 or 5 hundred dollar profit at 2 in the afternoon in the mini dow i know its time to take my money and wait for the open tomorrow. with forex it never ends or at least not until friday. its a mind game folks, always has been and always will be. food for thought. happy thanksgiving to everyone whether you observe it or not. jim
Jim, thank you so much for that great post. I have been trading both and I think you are right on the money. They are 2 separate and distinct entities. One must realize this fact. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family and to all my forex trading families. God bless.
Steven
  • #547
  • Edited 9:38am Nov 25, 2005 9:36am | Edited 9:38am
Well as a complete newbie to forex (as my previous posts show!), and having spent the good part of the last month reading up on 50 zillion threads, forums, systems, indicators, software, as well as blowing up a few demo accounts on the way, Ive realised that this thread is by far better than most. Im in the process of re-reading it from the start, this time with pen and paper in hand and am so far up to page 6. Ive been fooling around with fib lines which is something new to me. Id really like some feedback on the following chart. Does it correctly show fib ret confluence? The confluence appears at the 23 and 50 fibs, but im aware that its better if confluence is at 38 and 50. Im confused as to whether its a failed retrace or not. A DBHLC occurred at the confluence (not exactly double high, diff was 7 pips). Does any trade possibility exist here? What would have been the best way to trade this price action? Go long on the pin bar at the 0 fib, exit at the confluence and then short as price retraced below the open of the 2nd bar (which went on to form the lower close of the DBHLC? Or have I completely lost the plot from burning my eyeballs reading too many threads?!!!

Dan
Attached Image
  • #548
  • Nov 25, 2005 11:43am Nov 25, 2005 11:43am
7 pips is too much for it to be a DBHLC. 1 pip ... maybe. If the DBHLC is spot on then at least you'll have more confidence when entering a trade.
Keeping it Simple
  • #549
  • Nov 25, 2005 12:00pm Nov 25, 2005 12:00pm
Trumpcard,

Your analysis of Fib rets seems alright to me (38, 50 and 61 are my favourite, I am a bit aprehensive with the 23 and the 76 ones). Although it is true that 7 pips is a bit excesive. I particularily love to see pin bars that touch to the pip a fibs confluence, perhaps with a weekly pivot in the neighborhood and, of course, in the direction on the main trend. Now that's a solid set up for a trade.

However, always keep in mind that every system has its failure percentage (otherwise it would be the Holy Grail!). As long as the win vs. loss ratio is benevolent (66% plus), be confident and trust the system, but non the less make sure you also stick to senssible stop loss positioning and money managment rules, so when those system-failure ocassions ocur (which they do), your account won't take a big impact.
  • #550
  • Nov 25, 2005 8:23pm Nov 25, 2005 8:23pm
gReat! thanks WTB and Habeeb for your replies, in my chart would you have traded the pin bar and then shorted on the retrace?

Dan
  • #551
  • Nov 26, 2005 3:29am Nov 26, 2005 3:29am
Quoting Trumpcard
gReat! thanks WTB and Habeeb for your replies, in my chart would you have traded the pin bar and then shorted on the retrace?

Dan
Your Pin Bar is a Sunday. I don't use Sunday's for any analysis because it's not a full day. If it was a normal day, then I'd say your pin bar is too short.

Take care
Habeeb
Keeping it Simple
  • #552
  • Nov 26, 2005 8:56am Nov 26, 2005 8:56am
Quoting Trumpcard
gReat! thanks WTB and Habeeb for your replies, in my chart would you have traded the pin bar and then shorted on the retrace?
Hello Dan,

I cant say whether I would have traded that pin bar or not because I cannot see the whole picture off your chart. I mean, where are the different trendlines in different time frames, where are the daily and weekly pivots, etc. I do NOT trade bars formations on their own. In my opinion, you CANNOT reliably trade bars formations (for example a pin bar) on their own without analyzing the context.

So, my advice: dont trade bars formations just on their own: first study the bigger picture (trend, swings, fib rets, channels, etc), and only scan for price action at the end in order to find an optimum entry, not before.
  • #553
  • Nov 27, 2005 8:59am Nov 27, 2005 8:59am
great! thanks again guys for your advice. Looking at the GBP/USD, it appears that the current prirce, 1.7136, is hovering near a major long term support/resistance line at about 1.7065. Price bounced off this level 4 days ago, with a daily pin bar nose protrusion on the 23.6 daily fib, and price looking to retest the support. Given that the intermediate trend has been bearish, could a break of the support send price tumbling downward?

Dan
  • #554
  • Dec 1, 2005 6:40pm Dec 1, 2005 6:40pm
Nice Pin Bar setup on Gold daily chart. Gold has made a new high again. With price being at it's top, would it still be a good idea to enter a long trade on the retrace?

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...tid=2475&stc=1

Thanx
Habeeb
Attached Image
Keeping it Simple
  • #555
  • Dec 2, 2005 3:30am Dec 2, 2005 3:30am
Quoting habeeb
Nice Pin Bar setup on Gold daily chart. Gold has made a new high again. With price being at it's top, would it still be a good idea to enter a long trade on the retrace?
Hello Habeeb,

I am personally VERY cautious when prices are at long time's high, and thus I only consider pin bars that ocur after a significant retrace (between 38 to 61 fib of the swing). Having said that, I know nothing of the gold market so it might behave differently.
  • #556
  • Dec 2, 2005 1:19pm Dec 2, 2005 1:19pm
Quoting WTB
Hello Habeeb,

I am personally VERY cautious when prices are at long time's high, and thus I only consider pin bars that ocur after a significant retrace (between 38 to 61 fib of the swing). Having said that, I know nothing of the gold market so it might behave differently.
I too don't know anything about the gold market. Looking at the charts it would've been viable to have entered a long. Price retraced to the 38% Fibo (bottom of pin to high) and has moved up. I didn't trade this pin bar, just watching this market until I get a feel for it.

Good Luck and have a lekker weekend
Habeeb

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...tid=2481&stc=1
Attached Image
Keeping it Simple
  • #557
  • Dec 2, 2005 2:10pm Dec 2, 2005 2:10pm
Quoting habeeb
I too don't know anything about the gold market. Looking at the charts it would've been viable to have entered a long. Price retraced to the 38% Fibo (bottom of pin to high) and has moved up. I didn't trade this pin bar, just watching this market until I get a feel for it.

Good Luck and have a lekker weekend
Habeeb

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...tid=2481&stc=1
over time you will find markets such as gold and oil are much easier to trade with price action than forex. it has to do with a 6 to 8 hour market as opposed to 24. in forex you get a staggering effect and in timed markets you get cleaner and a more stacked effect. in the pf i will be following all of these markets. i will show you how to trade cheap options to catch good price action set ups. its a lot of fun. spreads, strangles, leaps, you name it we will be doing it. jim
  • #558
  • Dec 3, 2005 6:42pm Dec 3, 2005 6:42pm
To all concerned in compiling the upcoming PF project: Thanks In Advance.
I am greatly looking forward to the unveiling.
And to Jim, once again, a special thanks for having started this thread.
I would sincerely like to mention that:
I am praying the PF will be 90% graphically oriented with only some explanatory scrawl.
Memory is served best by way of pictures which is a good reason why this thread has had such a close following IMO.- It is easy to understand and remember the context when there is an applied graphical image.
Less words, more pictures. That's primarily what I wanted to suggest.

Best Regards, Kosta.
  • #559
  • Edited 8:40pm Dec 13, 2005 5:26pm | Edited 8:40pm
Quoting Kosta Berj
To all concerned in compiling the upcoming PF project: Thanks In Advance.
I am greatly looking forward to the unveiling.
And to Jim, once again, a special thanks for having started this thread.
I would sincerely like to mention that:
I am praying the PF will be 90% graphically oriented with only some explanatory scrawl.
Memory is served best by way of pictures which is a good reason why this thread has had such a close following IMO.- It is easy to understand and remember the context when there is an applied graphical image.
Less words, more pictures. That's primarily what I wanted to suggest.

Best Regards, Kosta.
the pf will be very graphic. i want to introduce a little system i use. just call it a christmas present to all of you. one of the problems i have always faced in this public thread is trying to introduce material that is difficult for new traders to grasp, heck even most seasoned traders dont do some of the stuff i do. trying to get it accross in an understandable manner in a small window is tough. since price action is the trigger in much of my trading if you have no understanding of it you are going to be confused. this is one of the obstacles i face in the pf. i need several months to get you up to speed.

i am sure there will be some that will stay a month and leave only to post here or somewhere else that what we are doing is bunk. if you want a simple moving average cross system taugt by every one and thier brother then you can find one blindfolded. they can be found for free or in ebooks for a couple of hundred bucks. here is the truth. what i do at least for new to intermediate traders is not masterable in a month or even two. what charles will be teaching is not your every day system and it also will require time to master. if you are going to follow michael then get ready to get serious. what fij can teach you over time is priceless, i dont know how else to say it. now go back and read all of that again, think for a moment what was just said. think about it and then put into your mind 3 dollars and 30 cents a day.

i honestly do not want people looking for some get rich quick system. do you want to learn how to trade for yourself? yes or no. are you willing to spend some time to learn? yes or no. are you willing to paper trade for an extended period of time to master it? yes or no. are you willing to open a small account with money you can afford to lose to master it under fire? yes or no. are you willing to spend several dollars a day for several months or longer to master it? yes or no. are you willing to take full reponsibility for your trading decisions good or bad? yes or no. are you willing to learn good money management skills and use them? yes or no. can you learn to have a long term mindset of success and learn to build an account instead of jumping off a cliff the first time you think you see the perfect trade? yes or no. are you willing to accept that becoming successful at this business long term is a learning process, not in the next ebook you buy or websight you join or signal service you subscribe to? i could go on and on.

let me ask you some more questions. what if you never do reach a point where this provides your dream income freeing you from your 9 to 5? what if it were to provide a supllemental income that combined with your regular paycheck gave you a lifestyle that was beyond what you could have achieved otherwise? what if it allowed you to retire at 50 instead of 65? would the effort to learn it and get good at it be worth that? or would just an extra 500 bucks a month make it worth it? what if you could build an account large enough over time that could make you 5 or 10 grand on a 20 pip trade? would that make it worth it?

we all have different backgrounds, dreams and aspirations. nothing is harder than saving for 2 years and then blowing it all in two months. nothing perhaps than the loss of a loved one or finding out you or someone you love is terminal or very sick. it really is in that sphere. i know, i have experienced both on several occassions. this is serious stuff folks and i care about the life after this one. what you do with what you learn in the pf matters to me immensly. dont join if you are not serious. go join most any where else where they wont feel bad when they take your money and you fall on your face.
if you will take your time and learn to crawl then walk and then run i think we can help you. i cant get you to take those baby steps at 300 a month and i know that. thats why i priced it at 99 a month and recruited the other three guys. the greatest thing that could happen to me would be to have people say thank you for improving thier life and doing it in an honarable and honest manner. its really that simple.

i have not posted much in a while and have been thinking a lot about the upcoming forum. i needed to get this off my chest. so there it is. starting today or over the next several days i will introduce a nice system that can be traded several ways and on several time frames. it can use price action and i encourage you to do just that. as with all my stuff its not canned and its not trading 101, sorry about that but like i said you can find that stuff anywhere. stay tuned. merry christmas everyone because its not frickin happy holidays like some would like me/you to say and believe. assholes. bye for now, jim
  • #560
  • Edited 8:57pm Dec 13, 2005 8:51pm | Edited 8:57pm
Yes to all of the above!

I can't tell you how lucky I feel to have come back to this forumn for what is about to transpire. I thank all of the PF mentors in advance as well as the rest of the forum as I plan many questions and make sure I understand the material.

I will say that I'm not deeply religous but rather spiritual and I respect everyones right to practice and express whatever religion they choose as long as it doesn't harm others. But I've been deeply sadden and angered this year over seeing Happy Holidays everywhere and being told it isn't politically correct to say Merry Christmas. I feel like putting a big banner on my Jeep.

I don't mean to use this thread as a debate platform but to those who celebrate it, "Merry Christmas".

I look forward to working with everyone next year in the PF.

Thanks again James (and contributors) for the PF and for letting us know what to expect. I'm glad it isn't going to be something you can find readily on the internet, that is just what I'm looking for. I'm also willing to put in the time to crawl, walk and then run.

If I eventually earn enough to pay for the PF then I will feel successful if I make more than that then it is a big bonus. If I decide to leave then I'm sure I will leave with tens of years worth of great material to digest later in time.

Looking forward to '06!

See you then!

Scott
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